2006 Virginia coverage kicks off the the Danz Edge Challenge

Well, vacation is over, and it is time to start coverage of the 2006 Virginia season. Wish our esteemed editors had remembered to tell me to bring my umbrella so that I didn’t have to sacrafice my complimentary copy of the Black Type Bugler. This year’s coverage kicks off with the Danz Edge Challenge, for all horses, four years old and older. The race runs over six and a half furlongs of turf, and the wet track is rated as good. The race has drawn a field of nine males, ranging in age from four to seven, with various amounts of race experience. Oddsmaker’s are holding this one close to the vest, with six of the nine entries falling within 2/1 and 7/1 odds. The longshot steps in at 23/1, so nothing is impossible in this one.

PP 1) Dixie Doodle Sired by Dixieland Band, Trained sopark100. Dixie Doodle is a four year old, making his twenty first career start here. This is his fifth consecutive stakes start, and he has one stakes victory to his credit. Over his last ten starts, he has garnered a record of 1-2-2-3-0, with five runs over 100 speed. He comes off a hard closing second place finish in a seven furlong turf stakes in New Hampshire in his last start. After making his first two career starts on dirt, he switched to turf, and after breaking his maiden with a merely passable speed, his speeds took a big jump finishing out of the money only twice in his subsequent nineteen turf outings. The bulk of his success has come in the seven to seven and a half furlong range, but that has also been the range where most of his races have been. He has shown himself more than capapble at this distance. The off track here benefits him, with three of his five 100+ speeds coming on an off track in his four off track starts. He is a midpack closer and his close has been at its best from about five to six lengths out at the half. His position at the half should tell the story here. If he can stay in his sweet spot, he’s a definite threat in the stretch here, but a couple lengths one way or the other could be his undoing.

PP 2) Flyphard’s Event Sired by Event Of The Year, Traned by lafly. Flyphard’s Event is a well seasoned five year old, making his thirty ninth career start. He hasn’t left the stakes ranks since midway through his two year old season. He boasts sixteen career stakes victories, including two at graded level. He is still running strong though, putting together an admirable 5-2-1-0-0 record with seven 100+ outings including his last four straight. He comes off a thrilling third place finish in the DCPD Penn Dash last out, only three quarters out at the wire after leading most of the way. Turf is definitely his surface of choice, and after trying dirt early in his career, he came back, enjoying a long successful career on the grass. He has won at anywhere from five to eight and a half furlongs but his best has been in the six to seven and a half furlong range. He has generally been good on an off track, though his last outing was his poorest run since his two year old season. He’s a leader/stalker, and he is at his best when he can stay close up on the leader. He’s one of the hottest horses in this field right now, and if he gets a good jump, he could be very hard to beat in this one.

PP 3) Joe Positive Sired by Red Ransom, Trained by joplus. Joe Positive is the granddad of the field here at seven years old, and he makes his thirty sixth career start in this race. He has four stakes wins on his resume, including one at graded level. He has a record of 2-2-2-1-1 record in his last ten starts, with six 100+ runs. He comes off a disappointing twelveth place finish last outing in the DCPD Turf Sprint, fading late after building a good lead at the half. He hasn’t been back to dirt since midway through his three year old campaign, and he is at his best on turf. This is his distance of choice, and most of his career success has come right here in this range. As long as the track doesn’t get too soft, he can handle himself on an off track, and he shouldn’t have too much problem with it here. He is a fast starter, and he likes to go wire to wire. If he doesn’t have that early lead he tends to suffer. His speeds tend to cycle, and this race should be a peak. If he gets a good early jump, and can hold it against the speed here, he could be in the mix down the stretch.

PP 4) Losin’ Your Mind Sired by Fusaichi Pegasus, Trained by sdmforlife. Losin’ Your Mind is a four year old colt, making only his eighth career start in this one. This will be his first career stakes start, earned by benefit of three straight victories. His career record is 3-1-0-0-0 and he is still seeking his first 100+ run. He comes off an A3x win at seven and a half furlongs in Italy in his last run. He is early in his career, and he is still seeking his niche for surface and distance. He has been steadily improving with a move to turf, and a decrease in distance, and he could be ready to pop off a big race here. He is another rabbit, that likes a fast jump and an early lead. His victories have all been wire to wire. He has only raced once off track, and it was quite a bit longer than the distance he seems to prefer. He has lots of early speed to contend with in this one, and the off track is a wild card for him. His fate should be determined by the first call here.

PP 5) Ghostlyformer Sired by Silver Ghost, Trained by epcotlen3. Ghostlyformer is a four year old colt who is making his twenty first outing. He has two stakes victories to his credit, and they came back to back early last year. Over his last ten starts, he has cobbled together a 0-1-3-1-3 record, with one 100+ start. He comes off a fifth place finish in an eight furlong owner restricted dirt stakes in Kansas in his last start. He’s shown good speed on dirt, but he has had his best success on the grass both in speed and earnings. He has shown stamina out to nine furlongs, but the distance here has been his best by far. He’s never run off track, and his reaction to the spongier surface could be a determining factor in his performance here. He generally likes a fast start, but he has shown some ability to close when called upon from well off the pace. There is a surfeit of early speed here, and he may be best served by coming off the pace. If he tries to contest the race early on this soft surface, he could have problems.

PP 6) Where Are The WMD Sired by Danzig, Trained by charliep. Where Are The WMD is a six year old horse, running in his thrity fifth race today. He makes only his seventh stakes appearance, and two of his career stakes wins have come in his last three races. He’s carved out a 7-0-1-0-0 record in his last ten starts, breaking the 100 mark in three of those. He comes of a one length victory over six fourlongs of good turf in a Newmarket stakes in his last out. He has shown a real pronounced preference for either surface, though he has had a bit better success on turf. He’s a career sprinter, and this one falls right in his preferred range. This horse absolutely loves an off track, the sloppier the better, and he has gone 7-1-1 in ten off track starts, posting several of his career best speeds. He is yet more early speed in a field already chock full of it. He runs his best race with a piece of the early lead. If this track was yielding, I wouldn’t bet against him here. On this good rated surface, look for him to at least be in the mix at the wire.

PP 7) Barb’s Libby(IRE) Sired by Giant’s Causeway(IRE), Trained by barbstable. Barb’s Libby(IRE) is a four year old colt in a long line of “Barb” horses to grace the Virginia turf. He is making his twenty fifth career outing here. He has six stakes victories in his career, all in this distance range. In his last ten, he’s squeezed out a 2-3-0-2-1 record, with three 100+ speed runs. He comes off a fairly close in fifth place in the DCPD Turf Sprint in his last run, fading after a second half rally. He has run dirt only once in his career, and after the speed jump he got after the switch to turf, he never felt the urge to look back. Sixteen of his twenty four starts have come in this distance range and he’s done just enough experimentation to know this is right where he likes it. He has only had one off track start, and his speed was not all that great, however it was right in the speed range he was running at the time. He like to run just off the pace, and is generally at his best when he is under two lengths out at the half. He’s going to need to expend a lot of early speed to stay within that kind of striking distance here, and this could be a rough one for him.

PP 8) Cool Sired by Sunday Silence, Trained by braveheart. Cool is a six year old horse, making his fortieth career start in this outing. He has one stakes victory to his credit, coming late in his four year old seson in 2004. Over the course of his last ten races, he has a 1-1-1-1-0 record, with two 100+ speeds. He comes off a third place finish in an A(T ) at a mile over good dirt in his last outing. He has performed equally well over both dirt and turf surfaces, though his record and speeds have been marginally better on turf. The majority of his success has come in the mile range, but the bulk of his starts have been in that range too. The off track doesn’t seem to bother him one way or the other, so it shouldn’t be a factor for him here. He runs as a midpack closer, and his close has been spotty at best over his last several runs. He appears to be losing a step recently and that doesn’t bode well for him in a field of this caliber. The one thing to his advantage here is that the race is begging for a closer. If he can find a bit of his old form he could be a threat to the flagging early speed, but he will need to find some more speed than he has shown recently to have success.

PP 9) Goveisawakiwarrior Sired by Carson City, Trained by quest2fame. Goveisawakiwarrior is a four year old colt, and he makes his fifteenth career run in this race. This is his third stakes start, and he still seeks his first victory at this level. Over his last ten, he’s managed a 1-1-1-1-0 record, with no 100+ runs. He comes off a sixth place finish over six furlongs of turf in a stakes race right here in Virginia in his last start. He’s a recent convert to turf, with his last four starts being his first attempts. His speeds have been relatively constant on both surfaces. He generally seems to prefer a bit more real estate than he has here, but has had some success sprinting. He’s only one once off track, that being on dirt, and he didn’t seem to enjoy it. He runs as a closer, and his close has been quite consistent, but he just hasn’t quite been able to get there in the stretch. The short distance isn’t going to help him in this one, though it is tailor made for a closer with the abundance of early speed. I’d like to see him try a bit longer run on turf next time around.