A Magical Time In Southern California
*Note:* Article Written By- Sand
While not a medically recognized illness, most trainers with a promising three year old will swear that Derby Fever is a disease. Certainly, the 14 trainers with an entrant in the San Something Stakes in California this week would agree. Some of the big guns have come to play today, including Magical Merlin, the 3rd ranked colt in the division, and Black Clown, 2nd in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, but they won’t have the track to themselves: a host of promising three year olds all are looking for a slice of this G3, $125,000 pie.
Let’s take a look at the field:
The San Somebody Stakes
Grade III
One mile
Fast Dirt
$125,000
All horses, 3 years old
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | GRAN HOPE | 7/1 | After whipping off two straight victories to start his career, this Strong Hope colt slid into a three race slump, all in stakes company, before taking a huge step forward and running a stellar 95 speed figure over 8 furlongs to close his two year old season. He’s proven that he can handle the distance (though his ability to get 10 furlongs is questionable), and will be a pace factor today. If he can replicate his last, he may be a factor in the finish, but he’s facing some classy company and has a tall order. | |||
2 | BLACK CLOWN | 5/1 | Ranked fourth in the division, Black Clown has often been the bridesmaid but rarely the bride: his record stands at 8: 2-5-0, but the Afleet colt turned in a gutsy performance to finish 2nd to Half A World Away in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile. Since then, however, he turned in a career-worst performance in the G1 Movieland Futurity, tiring badly after insisting on forcing the pace a little earlier than he traditionally has and watching helplessly as one of his rivals today, Magical Merlin, ran on past him to post a convincing victory. It will be interesting to see if he can rebound from that effort, but he should be able to find his way into the top five on class alone. | |||
3 | SINO FAVE(IRE) | 20/1 | With a pedigree like his (by a turf sprinter out a mare by one of the premier turf stallions in the world, with turf miler Cozzene further back in the pedigree), one has to wonder what talent like his would accomplish if he were to be tested over the lawn, but since this race will be contested over the main track, we’ll have to wait a while to see that. An up and down two year old season seemed to have come to a disastrous end when this colt ran last in the Sparkling Wine Stakes (G1), earning a whopping speed figure of 10. Off of that obvious injury, many were surprised when the colt made it back to take an 8.5 furlong listed stakes race late in the season. As a pace factor, he should be running early, but he doesn’t appear to have the class to stick with horses of this caliber when he’s put to the test. | |||
4 | CLAN OF THE CAT | 6/1 | Excuse what was nonetheless a respectable first outing (4th in Kentucky) and this horse would never have been off the board. Two stakes wins and a strong, closing 3rd in the G2 Club Stakes have pushed this colt to the 24th ranking in the division, and he looks like he’ll relish extra ground. He may find the 8 furlongs too short, but if any horse can knock off Magical Merlin in this field, I’d expect it to be this colt. Astute race fans would do well to note this colt, because he could be a big factor come Derby day. | |||
5 | BUZZY | 41/1 | Speed figures seem to leave this colt on the outside looking in today. His impressive win over a sloppy track had his connections hoping for rain, but that was not the case, and this one looks to be outclassed. | |||
6 | TOWN EMBLEM | 16/1 | Since a promising opening to his career, this colt seems to have developed a case of racetrack schizophrenia: he can’t decide whether he’s a stalker, closer, or speedster, though his disaster over the lawn seems to have firmly established that he prefers the dirt. He’ll need to repeat his last outing (90 speed figure, 3rd in an 8.5 allowance race) with a few small tweaks in running style again (being part of this pace may not be a good thing) and move forward from it in order to have a chance of competing, and while its unlikely, stranger things have happened. | |||
7 | PHONE TAP | 23/1 | Trainers would kill for a hard knocking closer like this, but his speed figures leave him 15 points out of contending for top money in this one. Barring a massive step forward, he is a nonfactor. | |||
8 | HIDE BEHIND GLASS | 18/1 | He was a desperate head away from becoming a stakes winner in his previous outing and seems to be in the same boat as Town Emblem; he needs another huge jump forward in order to contend, but its not impossible. This one, however, may be slightly more likely to regress from the huge effort he turned in last time out than Town Emblem is; this one lacks the established form to give handicappers the confidence that a big performance represents a genuine improvement rather than a random leap forward that will not be repeated. | |||
9 | TWO TWELVE | 14/1 | A stakes winner over this track and distance last time out, he steps up in class today, but this Forestry colt seems to have a license to improve, something he’s done steadily each of his last three races. A top three finish by this one would not be surprising, and if he can learn to consistently sit off the pace, as he did when 2nd in a stakes in South Dakota, he could emerge as a big player in the division this spring. More upside than many in this field, even if he doesn’t get it done today. | |||
10 | BEARLY WANTED | 15/1 | Bred through and through for 10 furlongs, he may run out of ground at 8 furlongs, but he’ll be coming hard at the leaders through the stretch. Like many in this field, he needs a big jump forward to contend with the big guns, but he’s got a license to make that jump. | |||
11 | MONEYGROWSONTREES | 10/1 | Inconsistency, unfortunately, is a hallmark of many young horses, and so it is with this one. After a disaster in the G2 End Of The Line Futurity (last of 14), he served notice to the racing world that he might be something big when he was 2nd to the 8th ranked colt in the division (Ab Fab) in the Upper State Juvenile Stakes (G2), but the closing kick that carried him to that finish was nonexistent when he backed up to 7 furlongs for the G1 Blue Ant Handicap: he was 13th of 14. Its impossible to predict which horse will show up today; his best puts him in the money, the other alternative has him running 10th or worse. Flip a coin. | |||
12 | MAGICAL MERLIN | 7/2 | This is the big horse, both on a national scale and in this race. Ranked 3rd in the division, he was the post-time favorite for the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, but had his perfect record blemished when he could only manage 9th. The Smarty Jones x Sadler’s Wells colt rebounded from that disaster to simply annihilate the Movieland Futurity over this track to close his two year old season, and this race is his to lose. He’s undefeated in California, and barring a disaster should move his record to 7: 6-0-0 after this week. | |||
13 | LANGFUHR SLAM | 12/1 | Talented colt picked up a solid front-running stakes win last time out, but he looks to want an easy lead: he won’t get it, and in his first try past 7 furlongs, he may start to get leg weary in the final furlong. If he can relax back off the pace he has a chance of lasting the distance, but he still will have problems dealing with the class of Magical Merlin and Black Clown. A lot of upside, but in a tough spot today. | |||
14 | TOXICSUPERFREAKOUT | 9/1 | Probably the classiest of the speed, this one is one of the few that has posted figures that put him in the same league as the top few, but his disaster last time out is going to weigh on the minds of bettors. This also looks to be the upper limit of his distance capabilities, so he’ll be teetering right on the edge as the field comes through the stretch. A lot for this horse depends on whether he can clear the field early; if he can he may hang on and have a big say in the finish. If he can’t, he may run into issues around the 7 furlong mark. |