1-2 Punch in the Swamps

It’s a battle of the Titans shaping up in California, as the number one and two ranked classic dirt colts take each other on in the Swamps Stakes.   They’ll be joined by some old friends on the Triple Crown Trail as well as some new friends trying to join the upper ranks of the three-year-old picture.

First, let’s take a look at the familiar faces from the Triple Crown Trail:

Stoners’ Champions4 stable is bringing us the awesome Derby Champ Anticosti, who will break from the 3 hole.  A stunning son of Unbridled’s Song, the rangy gray won every race he ran this year….until his last start.  But toss that one, a miserable struggle against a muddy track.  Like his nemesis Fly for Buda, he likes to come from a couple lengths off the pace, then overwhelm the competition with a muscular stretch drive.  Skilled jockey T Bates will be in the irons, keeping the colt free of traffic problems.   The colt has been well-rested with his starts carefully planned and he’s in a great position this week to show us that last start was a fluke.

Right next door, eyeball to eyeball with Anticosti, will be the #1-ranked classic dirt colt this year – Fly for Buda.  If a rarely-defeated Derby winner is only ranked #2, you know the #1 must be a monster, and he is.  The deep brown son of Sadler’s Wells has never been worse than third in a route, despite running in a series of huge races.  He has landed California’s top jock, F Gossett, who guided this colt to a win in the Middle Jewel and a fast-closing second in the New Yorker.  This is a dynamite horse-rider combination that is looking to add even more glory to their combined record.  The colt has been off since the New Yorker and is looking fit and eager.  Watch for him to run right with Anticosti the whole way, with a stretch drive for the ages.

Capeside’s Hattori Hanzo has been the Rodney Dangerfield of the 3yo scene.  You don’t hear him get a lot of respect, because he hasn’t won lots of big races, but he dances all the dances and has never been worse than fifth.  Winless since the Arkansas Juvenile (actually a race for 3yos), he still continues to earn steady paychecks in big races.  His best angle here is that he is the only nice speed horse in the race, so if he manages to control the speed on the several very nice stalkers, he has a shot at running away with the race. 

Then there are the horses who are just moving up to this level of competition:

Bob’s Orchestra is sitting at 7/1 for Claim this weekend and is a colt who has been coming into his own his last few starts.  His last graded effort, the Louisiana Derby, was a flop, but he has shaped up tremendously in his last couple of outings.  He won an overnight stakes at this distance with a 106 fig and followed that up with a very close third.  He’s fast enough, but this is a big step up in competition for him.  Might’ve been better off testing the graded waters away from the top two colts, but he’s a nice colt who might have a surprise up his sleeve.  Watch for him to come from well back.

Dinomite’s Go For Boot will go to the post at odds of 8/1, which I suspect is a little shorter than he deserves.  His last races at this distance have been decided slower than they would need to be to be a factor against these horses.  Moreover, he was a steady seventh last time out in the Flat Land Derby, a less-challenging race than this promises to be.  He’s a nice colt who’s been useful in overnight stakes and allowances, but he’s in awfully deep here.

Beneath the Stars was dreadful in last time out, the Grade I Princess Cup, but we can write that off due to the off track.  Unfortunately, his other graded outing was just as disappointing.  He’s unpredictable, though, he ran a fast race two back in a little overnight stakes.  Given his graded experiences up til now, I don’t expect too much of him, but just remember that he’s capable of being pretty speedy. He’s going off at 12/1 for Calle4 and will have the rather wretched L Allen in the irons.

As some might’ve expected, there will be a Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy colt with a stellar record entering this race.  But it’s not Cader Ydris, who is gunning for a Kentucky G1 next week.  It’s the newcomer Rock Cutter, Liblelady’s up-and-coming phenom.  He has four wins and two seconds in six dirt routes and is making his graded debut this weekend.  It’s a tough spot, but this boy is on fire and he has landed the ace jock M. Staples.  He’ll most likely try to stalk (just like the top two colts), which could end up in a little traffic jam, but I’m eager to see how this guy will stack up.

Capeside’s Hattori Hanzo has been the Rodney Dangerfield of the 3yo scene.  You don’t hear him get a lot of respect, because he hasn’t won lots of big races, but he dances all the dances and has never been worse than fifth.  Winless since the Arkansas Juvenile (actually a race for 3yos), he still continues to earn steady paychecks in big races.  His best angle here is that he is the only nice speed horse in the race, so if he manages to control the speed on the several very nice stalkers, he has a shot at running away with the race. 

Husky’s Savage Frontier will be trying his first Grade 1 this weekend, but bettors don’t love his chances, putting him at 10/1.  He’s tried a few G3s, with a third being his best finish in that company.  He’s improved lately as he switched to dirt routes, but he’d have to take a big leap up to compete with this lot.  Just a terribly tough race for this nice colt.

Ucio Bello, trained by Elbongy, rounds out the field and is the day’s longshot with odds of 22/1.  Hasn’t had much success outside allowance company, despite several attempts, and has never hit the board in a route.  A useful colt in allowances, but he just doesn’t belong in one of the tougher Grade 1s of the year.

I am really looking forward to this race.  Seeing the top two colts right next to each other with their similar running styles should make for a truly exciting race.  And who knows, maybe someone will pull a Touch Gold and go around them while they focus on each other.  Don’t miss this one.