Victoria 2727.5315
Will The Storm Blow Over In
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#1 Bella Figura – Sgtbones (3/1) – 5 year old bay mare, by Kingmambo out of Seattle Slew mare, 38 starts, 6 wins.
Ranked the number four mare in her division, gave little indication of the promise to come in her juvenile days, she won two races but looked woefully outclassed when stepped up in grade, however as a three year she really started to bloom and 7 wins including a Grade 1. As a four year old this form continued with another 7 wins all in Stakes and Graded races, she has become a real specialist at this distance, unproven on the yielding she has won on good going, the only concern would be whether this going will blunt her lightning burst she shows down the straight. A hold up runner who can’t let the pack get to far ahead with this yielding ground.
#2 Mambomambomambo – Ratem (8/1) – 5 year old bay mare out of a Sadlers Wells mare, 17 starts, 5 wins.
A real dual surface performer who has proved herself on the dirt and the turf, didn’t make her debut until she was a three year old and proceeded to win her first 2 starts, as a four year old she again won on her seasonal debut, picked up her first Stakes win when making a switch to the turf, followed that up with a second in a Grade II. Remained ultra consistent throughout the year although only managed 1 more win. A strong galloping mare who could find herself run down by faster finishers, two pluses in her favour, she likes to win on her season debut and she runs well when making a surface switch. Looks to be more of a galloper than a sprinter in a finish, however the slower surface could help her down the straight.
#3 Miss Clear Cut(Ire) – Mrsardis (13/1) – 4 year old roan filly by El Prado out of a Dancing Brave mare, 19 runs, 6 wins.
Made a winning debut as a two year old, never finished out of the first three on her remaining starts, won on her seasonal debut as a three year old, switched to Stakes company for her next start, finished 2nd then followed that up with a Stakes win in her next start, franked that form with a close up 5th in a Grade I, lost her way a little after that and need to be dropped back to allowance company to get back in the winner’s circle. Looks like she wants every yard of this trip and I would be concerned as the only time she encountered an off track she finished a long way back. Will need to record a lifetime best to win this however she will be staying on when others have cried enough if handling the ground.
#4
Unraced as a two year old, she made little impression on her debut as a three year over 6f, she was stepped up considerably in trip for her next start showed herself to be different class over the longer trip. Struggled to pick up her next win, taking 5 starts, however the second half of the year showed a much better filly, stepped up to 10f on the turf, she picked up a Grade III and finished 2nd in a Grade I, a mare who looks to still be maturing she should pick up her share of races this year. Possibly this trip could be too short, however she has proved she can handle the off track and this will play to her strengths.
#5 Auror – Auror (25/1) – 4 year old chestnut filly by Sadler’s Wells out of a Blushing Groom mare, 13 runs, 4 wins.
Another who made her debut as a three year old, was well beaten on her debut on a yielding track, was switched to the dirt won her next two starts, but looked a little outclassed on her next two starts, switched back to the turf and finished 3rd in a Grade III, followed that with some solid efforts but needed the drop back to allowance company to pick up two more wins at the end of the year. Happiest when running out the front but this makes her susceptible to strong finishers, I would be concerned about her handling this ground as her only start on this going was poor. Will need a career best to win this and has to prove she can handle the yielding ground.
#6 Stormshaft – Tripcrown9 (8/5) – 4 year old chestnut filly by Mineshaft out of a Grade III winning Storm Cat mare, 17 runs, 7 wins.
Ranked number 4 in the dirt division this is a classy mare, a nice enough 2 year old who picked up a win and a couple of places she bloomed as a three year winning her first four races including a Grade II, throughout the rest of the season she only failed once to pick up some money and the highlight of the year was when recording a career best SP of 117 when beaten a length into 2nd in the Breeders Bowl Distaff as well as picking up two more Grade II’s. The most fascinating thing is that this filly will be making her turf debut, Mineshaft has some turf runners and his top earner runs on the turf, I would have liked to see if this filly could have at least handled a dirt off track and this can be an indicator as to whether the turf will suit. On the dirt this filly would have been a certainty, BUT this is her turf debut and on an off track as well, tough call.
#7 Washington(Aus) – Royston (46/1) – 5 year old chestnut mare by
The opposite of Stormshaft in that this mare has only ever run on the turf, won once as a two year old and pick up some money in three Stakes races, struggled to make an impression as a three year old and her best place was a second, improved as a four year old and picked two more wins as well a place and a show in Stakes company. Has won over 16f and looks like a relentless galloper, probably too much pace in the race for her to handle, looks to have no particular running style although she would probably be best running close to the pace. I’m afraid her price reflects her chance today.
#8 Octavich(NZ) – Serevich (13/1) – 4 year old chestnut filly by Octagonal out of a Nureyev mare, 12 runs, 4 wins.
Lightly raced mare who won both her starts as a two year old, the second being a Stakes race with a good SP, continued her winning ways as a three year old winning two more Stakes races, failed to win again after that but she was by no means a spent force as she picked up place and show money in three Grade II’s, a versatile filly who seems to handle a range of distances, yet to race on an off track, runs close to the pace and will need to have a turn of foot to repel the challengers. Should be freshened up from her winter break and should be capable of a bold show, no surprise to see her involved at a big price.
#9 Imperial Oats(Aus) – Bentley (6/1) – 6 year old bay mare by Testa Rossa out of a Ballydoyle mare, 37 runs, 12 wins.
A grand servant who owes her connections nothing, started out her racing career as a three year old on the dirt, winning three starts, looked even better when switched to the turf winning three more races including 2 Stakes races. Carried this form on as a four year old winning five races from seventeen starts as well as a place in a Grade III, given an easy campaign as a five year old with just 5 starts, but showed she was no back number with her final start when finishing a closing second in the GR Simsters fillies race. A hold up runner who again has never raced on an off track, will be interesting to see if her form holds up this season. Has a fine turn of foot down the straight but will this ground slow her down, on her day more than capable of finishing in the top three, but has her day been and gone?
#10 Lil Deborah – Warheim (30/1) – 4 year old bay filly by
Relatively lightly raced filly, made a winning debut as a two year old, followed that with a string of shows before picking up her next win in a Stakes race, wound up the season by placing in a Stakes race. Struggled to find the winner’s enclosure as a three year old and finally picked up her next win in a Nexis Stakes race over 9f, a front running sort who looks to struggle to last home, I would be concerned about her keeping up the gallop over this trip on this ground. Would fancy her chances much more on a faster track over a shorter trip, looks like this hare will be caught in the straight.
#11 Spaceship Earth – Justin (11/1) – 7 year old bay mare by
The oldest starter in the field, unraced as a two year old she made a winning debut as a three year old on the dirt, however she could be only be described as disappointing after that until her final start when won with an SP of triple digits. Kept on the dirt as a four year old she won 5 starts and in the latter half of the year picked up a Grade II and a Grade III. Held onto her form as a six year old with a Grade III and a show in a Grade I. This trip should be perfect for her and her close up running style means she won’t have to struggle through the mud to catch up. The question is whether age has caught up with this mare, this is a tough field but she should be thereabouts at the finish.
Race prediction – I have to oppose Stormshaft on her turf debut, there are too many negatives at that price, those who know me know I don’t like short priced favourites and will always look for value. Therefore I will pick Octavich at big odds, WPS, team her with Bella Figura for a reversed forecast
Good luck to all
Bagpuss