Competition booster? You be the Judge Judge

By ITCH

There isn’t too much you could say about what happened in West Virginia this week that would make any sense. Seems like a lot of people dying lately in the world, and I just thought I’d like to offer a prayer here for the families. It takes a real man to go down in those mines.

In this sad time, let us lucky ones who are still living to go ahead and have fun. I still feel good about the Mountaineers winning the Sugar Bowl, and I still feel good about the renewal of the West Virginia Stakes Competition, which has seen a strong return of former contest trainers, which is a strong indicator, I would think.

We start with the 1 1/2-mile JUDGE JUDGE HANDICAP, which has again renewed the stakes competition boost to normally lackluster stakes competition here at the Simulated Old Waterford.

No fewer than seven of the 12 entrants are from contest barns, although that majority is due mostly to a four-horse entry by Wassie, two-time past champion who evidently is serious about a three-peat. Also represented are Hijacked Ted, Ts1442 and Nextbonus.

Ts1442 has the race favorite out of his julie barn with the 4-1 ROYAL FORTY INDY, who may have found himself last out when second in the Grade I Kelso Cup on DelPenn Champions Day. The 4-year-old son of Royal Academy already was having a very good year before that big effort, hitting the board in several non-graded races at 12 furlongs or less. He really responded when stretched to the full marathon 16 furlongs, leading all the way before being nailed at the wire a head by illbred’s ESPECIALLY, who was second earlier this year in the Grade I Gold Cup. The major placing boosted Royal FHe cuts back in distance to 12 furlongs here, a distance at which he’s well familiar. It will be interested to see where he is positioned early, as there are a couple speed ball types in here who could compromise the favorite if he’s sent right along with them. On the other hand, that Grade I placing makes him the class of the field, and he has every right to sit right behind the speed early and finish much the best. Definite class edge.

At 5-1, Hijacked Ted’s LIVE BY THE SWORD, out of his hijacked barn, is the co-second choice. This 6-year-old son of War Chant was bred by Masterab to be another Allied Assault, but has changed hands three times since being bred by one of the most powerful barns in the Sim. Like AA, LBTS comes from way out of it, but on the dirt, not the turf. The style could suit well with jockey Jocko Maloney, who prefers come-from-behind runners. He’s ranked 105th in the long dirt rankings, but 38th in the classic dirt division. All of those stakes points were earned with Hijacked at the controls. It was not until LBTS was stretched out to 9f and beyond by his current trainer that he began to flourish. Nothing ever stays the same with anything but super horses, however, and Ted is facing a challenge now, with LBTS firing not at all last out in the DPCD Classic. With the favorite second last out in a Grade I, and this one 11th last out on the same day in a non-graded stakes, it sure seems like there ought to be a lot more than one point difference in their odds. LBTS gets two more furlongs this time, and could have his chances improved with a hot pace at which to run, but his late-running style usually leaves him out of contention for the win and he concedes a class edge to the favorite.

Co-second choice is larsonisto’s ELECTRIC EYE, a non-contest trainer who could play spoiler here. Ten wins and tens seconds from 33 starts jump off this horse’s page, as does his current form, second last out to back up a win two back, both in contests of this exact class, surface and distance. The last two races make him an obvious contender here. Look through this horse’s career pp’s and most Sim trainers will say, “wow, nice claim.” Larsonisto picked up this 5yo son of Real Quiet for only $7,500 early in 2005. He ran off five straight starter wins and had two good conditioned allowance finishes before the tag ran out. Convinced of his quality, Larsonisto entered in a stake three back and saw his horse dismissed at almost 14-1. He was third that day, and then won his black type two back with a victory in an Oklahoma over-nighter. From $2.500 claimer all the way up to 117 in the long dirt division. Whatever happens Saturday, a definite success story. Plus, you have to like his chances Saturday.

Another potential spoiler for contest trainers is ssutton’s BLARNEY’S GIFT at 6-1. This is a very consistent horse at the class and distance, off the board only three times this year in 19 starts, 10 of which were in stakes company. This 5yo son of Grand Slam might be taken a hair lightly based on the missing triple-digit speeed fig in his last give, but he was only one tick away at 99 last out when returned to his apparent preferred surface of dirt, although he’s capable on both. You’ve got a good horse here who’s been competitive at the class and distance all year long. His kind cannot be dismissed, particularly in light of the fact that Ssutton knows what he’s doing, winning 79 races in the Sim for his training career from 526 starts. Solid hoss from solid barn.

Whatever Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker Charlie Hoops says, and he says 10-1, we can’t go any further without landing on MR. SOCIABLE out of the empirez barn for Mr. Nextbonus. Word is that Mr. Bonus has his feet up on the bar at Old Waterford, taking bets from all comers that the horse he claimed for $13,500 way back in week 1789 is the first to the wire on Saturday. While several will have a say in the homestretch, MR. SOCIABLE is quite likely to be first early on, as this confirmed front-runner has been in front at the first call in nine of his 14 starts this year. This good old horse has won four non-graded stakes in his very respectable career, the most recent six back in an Indiana overnighter. Since then, he’s shown a good race, bad race pattern, and he’s due for a good one Saturday. The only problem is the front end is liable to be hot, with the favorite sharing the same style and other longshots looking to gun early. Mr. Bonus must know something to be taking all those bets, though. He at least knows how to stay popular in the bar with the indoor plumbing, however, as the gals tending bar never saw a $5 tip before.

Old Charlie rates Sunsilence’s CIVIL DUTY a slightly better chance than Mr. Sociable at 9-1. He gets more respect from the actual Sim rankings, checking in at 32nd in the long dirt division. 2005 was a very solid year for Civil Duty, as he’s piled up the stakes points with two non-graded wins and six second-place finishes. Despite all the success, those wins were a while ago, and the horse is surprisingly eligible for non-winners of a race in nine months. Despite the nine-race losing streak, it’s hard to say the horse is in any kind of poor form, having been second last out in another non-graded stake. Civil Duty clearly belongs here both in terms of class and distance, and probably is overlaid at 9-1.

Let’s get to the defending champ’s best-rated horse in here of four, HISNAMIS MR ED G out of Wassie’s zz stable. At 10-1, Charlie must have been loaded to put the same price on this horse as Mr. Sociable and only one point higher than Civil Duty. Both of those are well proven at the class and distance, while Mr. Ed is 3-24 lifetime and is unproven at both the distance and class. There is another member of the Wassie entry which catches our handicapping eye much more readily.

At 18-1 is NOELLE’S OREO G, a regally bred 4yo daughter of Forty Niner who is lightly raced, making only her seventh start here. For our money, she is by far the best of the Wassie foursome here. For one thing, she’s the only one of the bunch who appears likely to throw a triple-digit speed fig. Wassie will know he’s really got something if she runs triple digits in this race, as she faces the triple disadvantage of facing boys, stretching out and jumping up in class. She’s won two in a row here at Old Waterford in allowance company, setting the pace and pressing it at nine furlongs. That translates to an on-the-lead trip here, where she’ll face Mr. Sociable and the favored Royal Forty Indy. This is a risky move entering her here, and if she runs good Saturday, she could well be a tremendous filly.

The other two parts of the Wassie entry appear misplaced. GOLDELEUX G has been racing in sprints, and the best she probably can do is help fry her stablemate Oreo G on the front end. SOLIDINTHESADDLEG has missed the board in five straight allowance starts.

Down on the rail we have Chas’ PHYL THE SEEKER. Charlie gives this horse respect at 10-1. He set the pace last out in his first-ever stakes try, which he earned with two straight allowance wins. Fading to fourth in the lane, this horse faces an unfavorable pace scenario, with almost all of the field sharing his propensity for running on the front end.

Finally, we have a non-contest horse in Fastdream’s REDEXPRESS II(IRE), who should be considered by trifecta bettors for placement at the bottom of their tickets at 18-1, as he has been third twice in the last three at this class. Again, we have another runner who likes to be on or near the lead.

In conclusion, we have a very unusual pace scenario here in that the race is a long one at 12 furlongs and almost every horse in the field can be considered a front-runner. The lone closer is Live By the Sword. The wager may be to key ROYAL FORTY INDY on top, with LBTS hitting the board second or third.

Good luck folks!