Donner, K’s Araku meet in Winterthur Oaks

By Itch

DELAWARE – Sam8122218’s DONNER, the No. 1-ranked 3yo dirt long route filly, and Kronus’ K’S ARAKU, ranked No. 3 in the division, square off Saturday in the Grade I Winterthur Oaks at Delaware, at 11 furlongs a serious class and distance for these fillies.

Donner has been installed as the 7-2 favorite in the top-heavy field of 14. Ranked No. 4 in the classic dirt division, the daughter of Thunder Gulch has reeled off three Grade I wins this year, all at 10 furlongs or longer. She is very, very potent at this distance, having announced herself to the Sim world going 11 furlongs back in week 2517, when she jumped all the way up to a 108 speed fig in capturing the Grade I Chestnut Stakes in New York. Recent defeats in the Breeders Bowl and the Cotton Handicap probably were more of a reflection of her ability at those shorter distances than her class. She snapped right back to herself when back to her favored distance last out, capturing the Grade I GSR Oaks at 10 fulongs. They’ll be playing her game Saturday at 11 furlongs.

K’s ARAKU, as her lofty No. 3 ranking would indicate, also has the credentials at the class and distance, however, and she may have a pace edge in this race Saturday. A confirmed frontrunner, K’s Araku appears to meet only thin opposition on the front end when you break this race down. It looks like she’s going to have a real good chance to shake loose on the front end, and may take a lot of catching by the No. 1-ranked Donner.

After the top two, there are several other interesting possibilities, and then a handful of fillies which are not recommended for placement on any trifecta tickets.

Perhaps interesting possibility is the wrong description of the two most likely upsetters of the top pair: GOD’S FURY and THE DIVORCE. Fair to say if either one ot these look you in the eye, intimidation could be a fear factor.

Jarrod2′s The Divorce is 1-19 lifetime, and yet is 7-1 in a Grade I. How in the world can that be? Ranked 13th in the division and still eligible for N2L. How is it true? Last out, The Divorce ran second in the Grade I GSR Oaks, second only to our favorite, Donner. She came flying in that race, closing from last, and making up more than nine lengths in the stretch. If K’s Arabu does not get the expected easy trip on the front end, The Divorce might lose her first condition in a Grade I. Even if the pace is not perfect, The Divorce still looks logical to close and hit the board.

Saver’s GOD’S FURY is trying to regain the form she showed as a 2yo and early in her 3yo season. A multiple stakes winner after only her eighth career start, God’s Fury ran her first poor race in this year’s Bluegrass Oaks, and has been struggling to recover ever since, losing nine in a row since. She’s run some fast races from off the pace, twice running triple-digit speed figs in that losing streak, but never better than second and off the board in three of her last four. Even with God’s Fury’s losing streak, the Saver barn has maintained a high 20.8 percent strike rate this year, earning $1.3 million plus with six total stakes wins. The filly definitely has the class and distance ability, having been second in a Grade I five back, but whether she’s the now horse for Saturday remains to be seen.

Together on a third tier in this race are No. 27 HIGH FLYER out of the 2ofus barn and No. WAKI BULLET of the pandrews outfit. Both of these two have been dismissed by the oddsmaker at long odds, which means we are automatically interested to take a look.

High Flyer is 26-1. If anybody can get the distance, it’s her. In fact, she’s cutting back five furlongs for this test. Four of her last five races have been at the ultra-marathon distance of 16 furlongs, and she’s closing going that far. Look for High Flyer to plod out of the gate on Saturday and get involved late only in the front end collapses. Whatever happens, 2ofus is still having a solid year, hitting them at 16 percent with three stakes wins and 13 allowance wins.

Waki Bullet is 33-1. After winning four of five, including two stakes wins, this daughter of Red Bullet has tailed off badly in her last two, losing by 37 lengths last out in a 14-furlong stake in Japan. Even if we were to forgive her for that race as it was perhaps too far, it’s hard to endorse a filly taking a jump in class into a Grade I off such a dismal effort. Pandrews also is having a nice year, clipping them at 15.6 percent and pocketing six stakes wins and 11 allowance wins.

As previously stated, this year’s Winterthur Oaks is top heavy, with only two more fillies in the top 100 left in the field. These are meguire5th’s CHOPPING HILL at No. 63 and zambaygo’s ZAMWEST at No. 88.

Meguire’s filly was fifth in the GSR Oaks, with both of the top two fillies from that race returning. She’ll have to turn the tables on Donner and The Divorce. At 11-1, we’re looking to make an excuse for that race and maybe find one with the off track. This nicely-bred daughter of Woodman seems blood-bound to move forward with age, and is a Grade 2 winner, having captured the King Classic two back in Germany. Probably meeting a tougher brand of dirt fillies stateside, and speed fig enthusiasts might knock her for never breaking 100 yet, but has a better chance than several others in here at the price.

Zambaygo’s ZAMWEST is juicy at 14-1. She likes the distance, showing a win in allowance company three back at 11 furlongs, but that was a short field of four and she got away with an easy lead. That ain’t happening here, as it’s a full field Grade 1 with the No. 3-ranked filly looking for the lead, too. It’s been a long, hard year for this daughter of Gone West, as she makes her 18th start of 2005 here. She has two non-graded stakes wins this year, but this is her first try in graded company, and she goes all the way up to Grade I to boot. I don’t think the distance suits her best, either, and she’s gonna have a hard time finishing with these gals. Tough spot.

Now we’re begining to get into the lower echelon of the field, with the rest of the fillies outside of the Top 100:

* Mindbolt’s CASINO GOLD is a little cheap for this field, having earned only $87,280 in 18 starts. She’s been a show horse twice in non-graded stakes, but is up against it class and speed-figure wise here.

* Lip’s ROYAL GREEN is short-priced at 8-1 despite her No. 117 ranking. She’s in very good form, never having been off the board in any of her last six. She’s won two stakes in a row, and probably deserves the chance at graded company, though the jump all the way to Grade I is a little steep. Does boast a triple-digit speed fig, which makes her competitive. Might have had a better chance if the track came up wet. The barn is having a nice year at 17.5 percent winners and five stakes wins.

* Lenny5’s CITY PROSPECTOR appears vastly underlaid at 11-1 considering her recent form. She’s got lots of back class with $658,000 in career earnings, but will be pulling a real rabbit out of the hat to reverse form here in a Grade I. Off the board in six straight and beaten by three others in here last out. Also drew a lousy 5 percent jock.

* Horseflesh’s YUGO RIDE T appears to have snapped back to life last out after several dull efforts, but on closer inspection, benefitted from a short field of four and is a bad underlay at 11-1.

* Superdaddy’s LITTLE CHEE CHEE has been dismissed as the longest shot in the field at 71-1. Oh please let there be a case for her. Umm. Nope. Way below these both in terms of class and speed figure ability. Pass.

* Marre’s KEPLER TETE is ranked far below any of her opponents here, at No. 492. We’ll see about that six months from now. This filly is very likely on her way up, at 5 wins of 6 lifetime starts while conservatively spotted in allowance company by Marre, who shoots for all the marbles here, jumping all the way up to a Grade I. The five-race winning streak and the three straight triple digit speed figs are very, very enticing to any handicapper. She’s trying the rarely successful double jump, however, making leaps both in terms of class and distance of this race. Usually one of those jumps puts you in warm soup already. I don’t know about backing her at 8-1 based on that, but, if she contends Saturday, you’ll know this is a serious filly. Even if she doesn’t run, she may be very good.