Four is the coziest number that you ever knew, this week in Nebraska. A quartet of juvenile fillies takes the stage on the lawn in a six-and-a-half furlong dash, in the $45,000 Light Dancer Memorial Stakes. Nebraska’s tundra may not be the warmest in the Upper Midwest, but the turf course is firm for a test of four veteran, evenly matched fillies, all with just about the same amount of starts: three fillies have eight starts apiece, while the remaining filly has nine starts.
High Drama [High Chapparal(IRE) x Lammtarra] has got the capacity to create good Sim theatre for trainer spglitter. She’s ranked #94 in the juvenile filly turf sprint division, with an off-the-pace stakes win in Kansas two back going seven panels. Seven furlongs, indeed, seems to be her maximum distance right now; attempts to extend her closing kick beyond that have been mixed, as three back she narrowly held on in an allowance effort, yet last out in a Wyoming stakes she gave way late and wound up second. Her numbers hold up nicely, and they have continued to trend upwards since her maiden win, which is always a good sign as she rises in class, and her late kick should fit nicely here. Distance isn’t a problem, and neither is experience; drawing the hedge with a closing kick could be a minor glitch, but she looks live in this spot.
Duel Spin Turbo [Elusive Quality-Ironroot Treefolk, by Spinning World], for brandt, has had some difficulties getting her engines revved up to maximum speed since breaking her maiden in May. Switching from dirt to turf has been revitalizing to her chances, as she’s been placed well minus good racing luck at the allowance level, but when stepping up in class and ability, she’s found the work more challenging. She was fifth in New York’s Preview Cup, and followed that up with a fifth in a Louisiana stakes last out, but her numbers retreated slightly, and her usual stalking ability failed to get her involved in either effort. Here, it’s a smaller field, and there shouldn’t be a lot of speed to chase, so she should be in the mix early here. Can she hold off a late kick for a chance at a bigger piece of the leftover pie? In any event, as she develops, watch her going longer, as she’s looked pretty good in those allowance miles earlier.
Bandstand [Dixieland Band x Nashua] should be goin’ hoppin’ early here for kevoman5. After breaking her maiden on grass, she switched to dirt, and looked pretty fierce in winning a pair of allowance races there. But when trying to step up her game to stakes-level, she retreated in form and found herself back on the lawn, where her first career renaissance occurred. Her first time back on grass, she won a Kansas stakes wire-to-wire with a career-best fig of 85. She stalked closely throughout when third last time in Washington, and here she might try to be the one to control the tempo once again. She’s well-bred, and she gets the services of the circuit-leading jockey for this; 5/2 happens to be a fair price for value bettors.
Danish Pastry(NZ) [Zabeel(NZ)-Gingerbread Man, by Danehill], for dkyoung2, is the first foal of a Grade II winner whose success came in routes on dirt. This filly has managed a trio of wins, all of which came on grass, which just proves that nobody knows anything about anything for certain. Second after dueling for the lead in a California stakes last out with a field-best fig of 91, she stalked a solid pace in a Louisiana stakes two back before drawing off, with a not-nearly-as-good speed fig of 74. Did she pop a good one, did she just get involved with a classier crowd than she’s used to, or might she be for real? It’s tough to figure out the juvenile filly mindset, much like females of every species, but usually when one improves her speed figures so drastically, running about 15-25 points higher than she ever had before in one start, she tends to bounce closer to normal in her next effort. She’ll be in the mix with the pace, but one doesn’t imagine Nebraska grass racing is going to be as swift as in California.
My selections, in what is probably one of the more evenly matched fields of the weekend:
- Bandstand
- High Drama
- Danish Pastry(NZ)
- Duel Spin Turbo
Good luck, and happy racing.