An Open Soda

A full field of fourteen, with three also-eligibles, has gathered in Arizona for the sixth running of the $250,000 Grade II Mistaken Soda Identity Stakes for two year old fillies going a mile and one sixteenth.

In the previous runnings, only one favorite has won, although every winner has gone off at less than ten to one odds.  Every winner has had the same running style.  The race has never been won wire to wire, and no horse has ever come from more than 5 lengths back.

While many of today’s fillies have won stakes, none have won a graded stakes, and many have shown drastic improvements as the length of the races has grown during the year.

This one looks wide open.

Here’s a look at the field.

1. Medaglia D’Oro has produced three stakes winners in the Sim, all fillies.  Two of them meet here today.  On the rail, Espresso D’Italia (Medaglia D’Oro x Arequipa (Miswaki)) runs for the Lasthope1 (26%) barn.  She beat the boys in an allowance route three months ago and followed that with a fast closing fourth in the Grade I Frickamee Stakes.  Will be hoping for a suicidal pace up front.

2. Last year, only two Hansel two year olds won stakes; this year none have.  Thirsty Hansel (Hansel x Thirsty Bold (A. P. Indy)) will try to change that for the SunAirFarm (16%) stable.  She has already been more successful than her two half-siblings still with the stable.  She ran an even third in the Grade II Camlaw Stakes last time.  Needs higher speed figures to upset here.

3. Dixie Park (Dixieland Band x Lois F (Gone West)) finished second in the Grade II Walnut Tree Stakes last time.  The Ashworth (17%) trainee comes from well back.  In here last two races she registered speed figures that are competitive with many in here.  Over 10% of Dixieland Bands Sim offspring have been stakes winners.  Just a matter of time for this filly.

4. Unbridled Mistress (Awesome Again x Unbridled) won her debut, and then followed that up with a win in the Epic Battle Stakes.  Both wins were done routing for the FatAttack (25%) stable.  The stakes win and the 89 speed figure makes her a co-favored in here.  She picks up the number three Arizona jockey and has shown a running style that mimics past winners.

5. Medaglia Dancer (Medaglia D’Oro x Lyjinsky (Nureyev)) is, of course, the other stakes winning Medaglia D’Oro filly.  The Subwinner (11%) trainee has outshone the rail filly, and this is her sixth straight stakes try.  She has a first and two seconds in ungraded stakes, but her two graded efforts weren’t much to look at.  She doesn’t need much improvement from her last race to prevail here though.  She fits the profile of past winners.

6. Stepping up in distance and class is Steppin’ Up (Pikepass x Wauchope (Nureyv)) out of the Minnesota (11%) stable.  Fittingly, her lone stakes win came in a Minnesota sprint.  I expect it will take a 90+ speed figure today, and she hasn’t come close yet.  Sire does have some who have done well in routes, so she may improve trying two turns.

7. The Super28 (21%) stable enters The Westies (Seeking the Gold x West the Escort (Deputy Minister)).  The Westies is three for five with two stakes wins, including one at a route.  Top speed figure was 83, but that was three and a half months ago, so she should be faster now.  Last effort was the Grade I G.S.R. Diamond where she was prominent early, then faded.  Sire has a very high percentage of graded stakes winners, including two year olds.  Picks up the number two jockey and should be near the front.

8. Goitsemedime (One Cool Cat x North From Project (Polish Navy)) was a fast closing third in the Vrad’s Storm Special, her first time in the money in three stakes efforts.  Pellegrino (19%) brings her back on three weeks rest.  Freshman sire One Cool Cat has one stakes winner in 55 runners.  She’ll be looking for tired ones to pass.

9. The Blaster6 (17%) stable is approaching its 100^th win and tries to close in on that mark with Raziel (Rahy x Deputy Silver (Deputy Minister)).  The chestnut filly is two for two – both routes – including a 91 speed figure in the A. P. Naskra Stakes four weeks ago.  She has the only 90+ figure in the field.  This is a tougher field than she faced in that one and the top five jockeys declined the mount, but the her record, the speed figure, and her style of rallying from midpack perhaps makes her the one to beat.

10. Speaking of jockeys, top jock N Gardner is having a great year, winning over 26% of her mounts.  In this one she opts for Biter Hollandia (French Deputy x Biter Phone (Crusader Sword)) for Barrstable (17%).  Biter has two Graded seconds with figures in the upper 80’s.  She’s been trying to wire the fields and has been fading, although she carried her speed well in the 8.5 furlong Margarine Stakes.  If Gardner can get her to relax on the front end, she would not be a surprise.

11. TheShellyShuffle (Generous x Sister Achievement (Temperance Hill)) has the longest odds of any.  The Anthberg (9%) trainee showed dramatic improvement in her second place finish in the provocatively named Stoner Is Stoned Special last time.  In fact, she has run very well since turning to routes.  Needs another jump in performance to take this, but not out of the question.  Has the right running style.

12. Sharing the airplane from Hong Kong with TheShellyShuffle was the winner of the Stoner Is Stoned Special: Northern Red (Redoute’s Choice x Forty Cat (Storm Cat)).  The JockeyMax5 (21%) trained filly has four wins in seven tries.  She will be running, if not on the lead, within a length of the leader.  Sire has three graded winners, but they are all five years old now.  Northern is primed to become the fourth.

13. Special Gold (Seeking the Gold x Danzig’s Way (Danzig)) was a beaten favorite in the Alicenwonderland Bonanza last time.  She has a win and two seconds in her three lifetime starts, all routes.  The early running filly out of the PG45 (18%) barn is rated the morning line cofavorite, yet gets a low percentage jockey.  Likely to run a faster speed figure than last two, both 85’s, and the breeding is intimidating.

14. BigRedWannabee (Vision and Verse x I’m a Knockout (Two Punch)) has three wins in seven starts for trainer RK (10%).  She did finish third in a graded stakes earlier this year, but her rally fell well short in finishing behind Biter Hollandia in the Margarine Stakes.  Another who needs to show sudden improvement to take this.

Morning line selections: 4-13-9-5

Timmn’s choice: 4-10-9-12

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