Festive Brook Special draws twelve

This week, Virginia hosts the Festive Brook Special, a race open to all comers three years and older. The race will run over a distance of nine and a half furlongs and the track again this week is rated as firm. The $50000 purse has drawn a field of twelve all looking for a piece of pie. The field has drawn a variety of competitors, ranging between three and six years old, and one filly accepts the challenge of the boys. They range in experience from veterans in the fifty race range, to up an comers still waiting for their tenth start. The co-favorites go off at relatively long 7/2 odds, with six of the eleven starters under 10/1 odds. Another four fall in the 10/1 to 15/1 range. This is one of the bigger fields for a Virginia stakes this year, and in a field of this size, there is always room for a surprise or two.

PP 1) Forty One Shots Sired by Shotiche, Trained by annita27. Forty One Shots is the sole filly to grace this field, and she draws the inside post. She is a four year old filly, making her twentieth career start. She steps back up to stakes level, after taking a one race break at allowance level, and she has one stakes win to her credit. Over her last ten starts, she has put together a 2-3-0-0-3 record, with no 100+ runs. She comes off a nine furlong open allowance against the boys, where she finished a hard closing second. She started her career on dirt, and a switch to turf gave her a significant speed jump, and she hasn’t been back to dirt since early in her three year old season. She displays a deceided turf preference. This is her sweet spot in distance range with four of her six career victories coming in the nine to nine and a half furlong range. She seems to have a special affection for the Vermont track, a historically tough one, with three victories in four visits, and her two best speeds by far. This may show a tendency to rise to the competition. She is a closer, and her close has been off and on over her last several, and she may be looking for a bit more distance at this level. Her success here will depend one which of her personalities shows up. If her close is on, she can be dangerous.

PP 2) Dancing Miner Sired by Forty Niner, Trained by misti. Dancing Miner is a five year old horse, making his forty seventh career appearance. He has two prior stakes wins, coming back to back around this time last year. In his last ten starts, he carries a 0-3-0-4-1 record, with three 100+ runs. He comes off a fourth place finish in a stakes at this distance in Argentina in his last start, falling off in the stretch after starting a good close in the second half. He made eleven of his first twelve career starts on dirt, before switching to turf for good. He didn’t gain a significant speed boost, with most of the difference probably coming with maturity, but his speeds on turf have been a lot more consistent than they were on dirt. Five of six career victories have come in this distance range, and this is about his happy medium, with another furlong or so being at about the outside of his distance range. He his a midpack closer and he seems to wanted to start is close either too early or too late, a lot of this being dictated by the field he’s in. Five to six furlongs at the half seems to be his optimum striking distance, and his position at the half here should determine whether he is a factor down the stretch.

PP 3) Music Phyl Please Sired by Palace Music, Trained by sal3. Music Phyl Please is a three year old colt, who is making only his eighth career start here. This will be his first stakes start. He lays claim to a 2-0-1-1-0 record in his first seven, with no 100+ starts. His speeds have, however, been improving steadily over his last five. He comes off a fourth place finish in an open allowance at this distance on the Jamaica track in his last race. Looking at just speed, he is about the same on dirt and turf, but the softer surface seems to give him a better jump from the gate, and he seems to be able to hold on a lot better. It is hard to gauge a distance preference for him, with all seven of his starts being in the eight to nine and a half furlong range. Personally, I’d like to see what he would do a couple of furlongs shorter than he is going here. He is a fast starter, who needs at least a piece of the early lead to be effective. He is going to have some early pressure in this one, and this will tell on him in the second half. If he can hold a piece of the early lead, and if he can ratchet that speed up another notch, he could still be in the mix in the stretch. He’ll have his work cut out for him to do that in this race.

PP 4) Barb’s Comfort(IRE) Sired by Theatrical(IRE), Trained by marybarn. Barb’s Comfort(IRE) is a three year old colt making his fifteenth career start. He is no stranger to stakes though, making his thirteenth consectuive stakes run here. He has five stakes victories including one Grade II triumph, and he enters this one as one of the co-favorites. In his last ten starts, he is 4-0-3-0-0 with four 100+ speeds. He comes off a picture perfect run in his last race, a Grade II in Florida at eight and a half furlongs. From eleven and a half lengths out at the half, he exploded in the second half to best a field of ten by two and a quarter. He has never been off turf in his career, and with seven wins and five 100+ speeds in fourteen starts, it doesn’t appear that a change is in order. He has had more success at shorter distances, but he has won his only two starts in this distance range. Though there is not much to judge by, this distance seems to be in about the center of his best range. He is a deep closer, and with only a couple of exceptions, his close has been quite consistent and very good. He comes off back to back wins, and if he runs that same race, he should get number three here. An interesting fact to mention here though, is that in his only other Virginia start, four races back, he had the worst finish of his career, appearing to just have an off day, rather than an injury of any kind.

PP 5) Scortch Sired by Atticus, Trained by afta95. Scortch is a four year old colt who makes start number twenty in this race. He has one stakes win to his credit, and makes his third consecutive stakes start after a short sojourn at allowance level. Over the course of his last ten, he has run to a 2-0-3-3-0 record, with five 100+ speeds. He comes off a third place finish in his last outing, an eight and a half furlong stakes race in Ohio. He is a veteran turfer, though two dirt starts have indicated that he has some surface versatility. This will be his longest start to date, coming right behind the eight and a half furlong start in his last that was his previous long. He has had the bulk of his success in sprints, in the six to six and a half furlong range. This will be a stretch for him, but some of his recent starts indicate that the additional distance may help him, with less concentration on speed and more on stamina. He runs as a stalker, but he has show glimmerings of perhaps having a deeper close than the short sprint distance has afforded him. His close has been fairly consistent, but he has been showing a tendency to start his close too late. This route of graund may be just what he is looking for, and if he can mount a close he could be a threat here.

PP 6) Ready To Be Great Sired by Red Ransom, Trained by nafzger. Ready To Be Great seeks that greatness here in his thirty second start. This four year old colt makes his eighth consecutive stakes starts, still seeking his first victory at this level. Over the course of his last ten starts, he has gone 1-4-1-1-1 with two 100+ speeds. He comes into this one off a fifth place finish in a stakes at this distance in Argentina. He has taken his tries on dirt, but each one proved more strongly that he prefers the grass, and he has spent most of his career there, enjoying moderately good success. This distance is his happy medium, right in the center of his preferred range, and he has had his best success here. He is a fast starter who likes to be in the lead, or very close to it, and he has shown good stamina lasting at least out to another furlong. While he needs a piece of the early lead to be effective, he hasn’t been able to hold a lead against the closers, and the distance doesn’t help him in that regard. He’s going to have to build a big cushion to take this one, and he is going to have some heat to contend with on the front half of this one as well as the back. Has fate will most likely be decided by the first trn in this one.

PP 7) Abente Sired by Machiavellian, Trained by bertamiran. Abente is another young up and coming three year old colt, making his twelfth career run in this one. This is his fourth stakes start, and while terrorizing allowance fields, he still seeks his first win in the stakes arena. He boasts a 4-2-1-0-0 record over his eleven career starts, with no 100+ runs. He comes off a second place finish in a stakes rate at this distance in Argentina in his last start. The started his career with two races on dirt, and after a couple lackluster performances, found his way into auction. His new trainer put him on the grass, and he has finished out of the top three only twice since the switch. His switch to turf coincided with a switch to routing, for which he has also show a flare. He has been running mostly from midpack, but seems to have his best success when he can be within two or three lengths at the half. He could benefit from a slightly faster break from the gate. He is going to be following some good early speed in this one, and a madpack break is going to leave him with a lot of distance to make up in the second half. He loves the distance here, but he will need to survive the early pace to have success.

PP 8) Brush Of Grey Sired by Broad Brush, Trained by flowers. Brush Of Grey is a four year old colt, making his twentieth career run here. This is his thirteenth straight stakes start, and he has three stakes wins highlighting his resume. Over his last ten, he has cobbled together a 3-1-1-1-0 record, breaking the 100+ barrier one time. He comes off a victory over a short field in an eleven furlong stakes in Tennessee in his last. He walked away from the field down the stretch taking it by nearly five lengths at the wire. After a long layoff following his first two races he switched to turf in his three year old season and experienced an upswing in his fortunes immediately in both speed and earnings. He has had success in equal measure at anywhere from six furlongs to eleven, as long as the track is green and firm, not displaying any overwhelming distance preference. His stakes wins have come at nine and a half, ten, and eleven furlongs, so this is a good placement for him, distance wise. He runs as a midpack closer, and has had off and on success, somewhat less than consistent. He has shown signs that he may be able to come from bit deeper in a longer race, but his sweet spot seems to be about five to six lengths at the half. With the early speed here, he may need to find that deeper close, but he has the stamina to stay within striking distance if he runs his best. He will need abit more speed than he has shown so far to be a factor here, though.

PP 9) Santa Claus II Sired by Miesque’s Son, Trained by highstakes. Santa Claus II is a six year old veteran horse, making his forty sixth career start here. He has one stakes win in his career, but seeks his first victory of any kind this season. Over his last ten starts, he carries a record of 0-0-1-2-3, with three 100+ starts. Six of those ten starts have been at graded stakes level, though. He comes off a long out fifth place finish in a short field stakes in Tennessee at eleven furlongs. He’s had plenty of dirt experience, but he is definitely at his best on the turf, with the majority of his career income coming in turf routes. This is his best distance for top three finishes, though he has shown stamina to out past twelve furlongs. He runs as a stalker to midpack closer, but he has been finding himself losing more ground than he has been gaining recently. The somewhat shorter distance for him here should help, as well as the open stakes class. If he can step back to the form that gained him money finishes in graded stakes earlier this year, he could be in the mix here.

PP 10) Saratoga Sojourn Sired by Red Ransom, Trained by sojourneys. Saratoga Sojourn is a four year old colt making his twenty second career start here. He has one stakes win in his career. In his last ten starts, he has rambled to a 1-1-3-2-0 racord, with six 100+ starts. He is coming off a thirty three length pasting in a twelve furlong Grade I outing in Ottawa in his last outing. He a turfer born and bred, and his hooves have never touched dirt, and with the speed he has shown on grass, there’s been no reason for them to do so. He is in his preferred distance range here, and while scoring a better record slightly shorter, his best speeds have been in this range. He is a midpack closer who has shown the ability to come from a bit deeper when he finds the need. Casting out his grade one beatings, his close has been very consistent, and he has shown some of the best speeds in this field over the last ten. His drop in class will benefit him here, and it wouldn’’ be surprising to seem him threatening in the stretch here. He might be worth a show bet or better at 9/1 odds here.

PP 11) Ghost Scatter Sired by Rocky Marriage, Trained by ernieman. Ghost Scatter is a six year old horse, entering this one as a well deserved longshot. He makes his tenth career start, in his first stakes, his first race on turf, and his first race beyond eight furlongs. His first nine starts have earned him a 1-4-1-3-0 record, with a best speed of 86.8 coming at six furlongs a few races back. He comes off a MSW victory in Connecticut at six and a half furlongs in his last run. He has no experience on dirt, and his pedigree doesn’t suggest that he should be particularly strong on this surface. Distance is the same, with this being his longest by a furlong and a half, with his pedigree not showing a real strong taste for it. He seems to prefer a fast start, and shows some talent for coming just off the pace. He has never faced a field of this caliber, though, and the surface and distance switch combined are probably not the best way to try it. All in all, unless he has a major surprise up his sleeve, he probably deserves the odds he received here.

PP 12) Z Dancer Sired by Zieten, Trained by grimmy. Z Dancer is a five year old horse who enters this race as the co-favorite. He is still running strong after fifty one starts, and he has five stakes victories in his career, with three of them in this distance range. He is 1-3-2-2-1 in his last ten starts, with six 100+ runs. He comes off a heartbreaking second place finish in an A3n race at nine furlongs in Arkansas, just getting nipped at the wire. He has had three races on dirt, and he speeds have been decent, but he shows a definite strong preference for the turf. He eaten up anything in the eight or nine furlong ranges, and in the nine to nine and a half range, he has sixteen top three finishes in twenty one starts. He’s a leader, pure and simple, burning it up out of the gate, building up as much lead as he can, and trying to hold on down the stretch. With his speed, he shouldn’t have much trouble grabbing a piece of the early lead, though he will face some pressure early. He has some good closers to hold off in this one, and he will have to build up plenty of cushion to beat them to the wire. Expect him to be right in the mix at the wire though.