Preview – Grade 1 Wooden Indian

An international field of trainers in the Grade 1 $750,000 Wooden Indian Lock Prep prompts a question:

Which is more difficult to win? The Bluegrass Derby or the Kentucky Derby?

One might argue it’s the Bluegrass.

After all, there are no trainers in Australia or South America who are taking aim at the first Saturday in May.

While the real-life Kentucky Derby is primarily an American race, the Bluegrass Derby is a world event.

The possibility was put forth to a chat room full of Sim players.

They weren’t buying it.

Balata, Deeprock, Casino, Irisharse and Desperado all said the real-life Kentucky Derby would be more difficult to win.

“I’ve been in the Bluegrass but never the Kentucky,” said Balata, who will run in the Bluegrass Derby this year with PRESPECTOR. “But in real life, horses break down all the time. In the Sim they really do not. At worst, a 10-week layoff.”

Irish offered a sound reason for his opinion.

“Less trainers worldwide in the Sim. Less horses, too,” the inveterate horseman said. “Plus, you can ship horses coast to coast around the world and back again with one click of the mouse. So you can find the easiest spot in the world to get derby points. In real-life, a 10-hour plane ride will take weeks to recover from.’

Desperado pointed out that there is no way to buy your way into the Bluegrass Derby, while a rich man could do it for the Kentucky Derby.

“If you give me a blank check, I can buy you one or two horses to make this year’s real-life field,” Despie said.

The primary reason for the previous debate is RAM N RAID, a strong colt who is a serious player in this year’s Bluegrass Derby. This chestnut son of Smart Strike is the only horse in the Wooden Indian who has guaranteed himself a trip to Simulated Louisville. The funny part? His trainer does not know where Louisville is. “Yes I do,” said Houseriot. “Oh, actually, no I don’t. I was thinking of St. Louis.” Up until recently, his trainer knew little of the Kentucky Derby and did not even know when the race would be run. “Yes, it’s true,” Houseriot said. That’s because he’s Australian, and follows racing in Australia, not the United States. It’s ironic that an Aussie who had no designs on winning the Bluegrass Derby ends up with a horse like this. On the other side of the coin, you have American trainers who would give all the BPs they ever earned to get a horse like Ram N Raid. This very well could be your 2013 Bluegrass Derby champion. Last out, he won the Grade 1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers, believed to be a key race on the Bluegrass Derby trail this year. The fourth-place runner in there, SIMBESTO, came back last week to miss all the money in the Florida Derby by only half a length. Only a week before, the 10th-place runner in the Vermont race, SMARTNESS WANTED, came back to run second in the Grade 2 Land’s End. Going into the Vermont race, this writer had his eye on Ram N Raid and felt he was a likely winner. I told Nextbonus Bill, owner of Bluegrass Derby entrant JUST GOOD ENOUGH, that I thought Ram N Raid was the biggest threat to his horse in Vermont. What impressed me was Ram N Raid’s powerful victory two back in Baggio’s Grade 2. The horse caught a tough trip and destroyed a good field in spite of it. In the Vermont race, Ram N Raid had a much better trip. He broke forwardly to be fifth, and caught a favorable ground saving trip behind the leaders. Toward the end of the backstretch he started moving. Halfway around the turn for home he had moved up for second. Then, the race for the win was on between Ram N Raid and Just Good Enough. Ram N Raid proved best, and comes here to New York on a three-race winning streak. The horse could not handicap any better in this spot. He just won at this class and distance. Houseriot just has to hope he keeps this winning streak together through the Bluegrass Derby. Horses like Just Good Enough who now find themselves on the Bluegrass Derby bubble sure will be rooting for him on Saturday. If he wins, he prevents a lower-ranked horse from winning an automatic spot in the Bluegrass Derby. Let’s go straight to the trainer himself and see what’s up with Ram N Raid. Tell us, Houseriot, is he going to win? “Who could say?” the honest Aussie said. “I am never confident.” But, how’s this for a bit of Bluegrass Derby foreshadowing: Houseriot’s birtday is May 4. 

Most horses in the Wooden Indian have only one way to get to the Bluegrass Derby: Win. But, Reman12000‘s SWAGU probably will make the Derby with a second-place run, and maybe by running third. He’s currently ranked 27th in the division with 81.5 stakes points, and would move up the ladder significantly with the 64 points from running second in a Grade I. Can Swagu do it? He’ll make his first start at nine furlongs on Saturday, so distance is a question. Class is not. Swagu has proven that he’s a classy horse. He’s won three Grade 3 races, and ran in last year’s Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile. There are plenty of things to like about this colt which suggest he may be able to overcome his distance challenge. First, he’s in good form, second last out in an easy race against a short field of four in a non-graded. Two back, he won the Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic. Both of his races this year look good. Also, he’s a proven winner. If they want to make money, horseplayers need to be lending extra credit to horses that show desire to finish in front of other horses. Swagu shows that desire. With six victories, Swagu has more wins than any other horse in the field. Finally, Swagu looks good in the speed-figure department. With three races in a row above 100, Swagu fits the bill. This is a classy kind of colt who looks like he belongs in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May.

Pointblank‘s PARTING SKIES also is likely to qualify for the Bluegrass Derby with a second-place run in the Wooden Indian. This late-running brown son of Smart Strike has won only two of his seven starts, but he’s earned 73 stakes points in the process, good enough for No. 31 in the division for now. The 64 points from a second-place run probably would be enough. This is a dangerous horse who could be a serious threat on the first Saturday in May. Now, all he has to do is make the race. He’s improving rapidly and there’s no telling how big a shot he’s liable to fire. Three races ago, this colt’s lifetime-best speed figure was only 91. Now look at him. He has two big numbers since then, a 101 two back and then a big, old 107 when a fast-closing second in the Vermont Is 4 Lovers. As he likes to do, Parting Skies broke slowly in the Vermont race, taking back to last. He bided his time back there up the back stretch, and did not start catching horses until he entered the turn for home. But once he started passing them, he almost passed them all! Parting Skies was still seventh at the head of the lane, but came running with a head of steam and was making up ground on the winner at the wire. What’s he going to do off that race? Is he going to improve again? If so, he might catch Ram N Raid this time.

What’s a Grade 1 race without a Super horse? Once again, no worries from the powerful triumverate of AFC, Topicount and Whirlwind. This is a partnership built to last, as all three members remain active in the Super Stables. They’ll all be rooting for WEST SIDE HIGHWAY, a chestnut son of Bernardini out of their Seeking the Gold mare, THE WESTIES. He’s one of several entries the Supers still have left in Derby lock preps. Next week, TEARS OF FIRE will go in the Corkscrew Stakes, and RED HARVEST is entered in the Arkansas Juvenile. West Side Highway looked like his Derby hopes had been dashed in December, when he was injured in a Del-Penn rezzy race. After progressing nicely as a 2yo, showing two third-place runs in Grade 3 races and a second in a Grade 2, the wheels came off on Dec. 22. No, the horse did not die. Instead, he took a nice, long break, and came back ready to run on March 2. He made a vast improvement off that apparent injury, and ran a big, old 106 when second by only three quarters of a length in a non-graded stake going nine furlongs. Once again, we see a repeated pattern from the Super Stables in attempting to establish their 3yos at nine furlongs before the big races are run. Even off a long break like that, the Supers challenged their horse to run farther than he had before. They wanted that nine-furlong start under his belt before they went hunting a trip to the Derby in a lock prep. Make no mistake. The Supers want a third Derby. They’ve won it twice. Will West Side Highway be the one to make it three? If so, the horse probably is going to have to show an improved ability to finish his races. Even as he established his high class with those graded placings as a 2yo, West Side Highway never did pass a horse in the stretch. He’s a grinding kind of runner who presses the pace and makes his move early, then tries to hold his position. The past performance line does not show it, but the same thing happened last out even while West Side Highway was improving. He took the lead turning for home, but was caught by BIG FAT DIRTY NARL, who he will face again today. He looks like an improved horse off the layoff but he needs a bigger finish.

There are only three graded winners in the Wooden Indian and Gowans has one of them in WAY TOO COOL. This brown son of Tizway, out of Ben’s mare HAACK’S EFFECT, made it four in a row last out with a dominating score in the Grade 3 Gary Asher Memorial. This is looking like some kind of horse. Way Too Cool ran second in his debut race, and has not been beaten since. He’s earned over $200,000 and risen to No. 66 in the division in only five career starts. The talent is obvious. Now, all he has to do is win on Saturday. This horse faces a big challenge in the Wooden Indian. He’s never been nine furlongs before, and he’s never been in Grade I company before. But, he looks the part. Way Too Cool has been winning his races by pressing the pace and then taking it over, kind of like Animal Kingdom did in Dubai. Last out, Way Too Cool raced in second right behind GIMLET NEAL, then took over as he pleased halfway home. This was his first graded race, and he towered over the field. For wagering purposes, it’s easy to recognize that Way Too Cool is 11-1, and the colt who was a well beaten second in the Gary Asher, STAND YOUR GROUND, is 8-1. From this observer’s perspective, Way Too Cool was coasting home in that Grade 3 last out. He’s got more in the tank. This is a rapidly improving horse who shows an ability to dominate his races. Last week, we saw Haack win two of three Derby lock races. Now, we see Gowans has a very serious colt out of a Street Sense mare that belonged to Otto. Might that be the magic touch that sends one of Blazing Saddles’ favorite sons to the Derby? This horse ran a career-best 107 last out while geared down in the lane. He could be any sort of beast.

The sire Big Brown is inspiring some interesting names for Sim horses. How about BIG FAT DIRTY NARL? That’s the name Deyoto has given to his talented brown son of Big Brown. Now, the words “big,” “fat” and “dirty” I’ve heard, but not “narl.” So, I hit the google button. Narl is a protein that activates the expression of the nitrate reductase (narGHJI) and formate dehydrogenase-N (fdnGHI) operons and represses the transcription of the fumarate reductase (frdABCD) operon in response to nitrate/nitrite induction signal transmitted by either the NarX or NarZ proteins. That’s a long way to go for a poop joke. Perhaps Big Fat Dirty Narl is proof that a horse can race in a noble manner with an ignoble name. Like Gowans’ fast colt Way Too Cool, Big Fat Dirty Narl ran an impressive 107 speed figure last out. This horse has a proven closing kick at the distance. His last two runs have been at nine furlongs and 9.5 furlongs, so we know he can get the distance. In his most recent race, BFDN defeated a field of 13. As per his usual custom, he took back at the start, saving ground nicely around the first turn. Conserved in 10th, BFDN advanced along the backstretch inside horses. Just when he appeared he might have traffic trouble, jockey M. Gaines worked out a magical trip, cutting between horses, then taking dead aim on the leaders around the turn for home. BFDN went by the Supers’ West Side Highway at mid-stretch, and became a stakes winner. Now, can he become a Bluegrass Derby horse? Look for him to take back and make a run.

Many of Redhill’s 30 stables are with Blazing Saddles, but redhill17 is with Pastures of Green and that’s who he’ll represent in the Wooden Indian with GOPHER HOLE. This is another improving colt who popped a big number last out to earn his way into a Derby lock prep. This son of Ghostzapper will be easy to spot. He’s light gray, and should be sitting about midpack in the early stages. Like many 3yos attempting to find a place in the Triple Crown picture, Gopher Hole faces serious challenges Saturday both in terms of class and distance. He proved himself at the non-graded level in his last two, closing strongly to be third two back, and then winning last out to become stakes-placed and then a stakes winner in successive races. Now, Gopher Hole will climb up to Grade 1 and stretch out to nine furlongs. Can he do it? The oddsmaker gives him a solid chance at 9-1. I think anytime your horse is single-digit odds in a 14-horse race, it has gotten respect from the oddsmaker. This horse took a big step forward last out when winning that non-graded stake against a field of seven. In that race, Gopher Hole broke fifth and conserved energy while two wide around the first turn and down the backstretch. He started his move entering the turn for home, and worked his way into contention for the lead while three wide. By the time they turned for home, Gopher Hole had taken charge. He ran away from them in the stretch while much the best. Redhill is looking for the same kind of run in the Wooden Indian but his colt will have to do it against much stiffer competition.

There were two horses with identical stakes points totals of 25 each coming into the Wooden Indian. One of them is getting much more respect from the morning line oddsmaker than the other. It’s Lender’s NO STAFF ON HAND, who will bring a lovely three-race winning streak into the Wooden Indian. This chestnut son of Symboli Kris S. has flourished since being switched to the main track for his five most recent races. On the turf, No Staff On Hand had run decently in his first three races of his life, but the best he could do was a pair of third-place runs. Lender made the switch and it was a good one. No Staff On Hand responded immediately by breaking his maiden with a significantly improved speed figure. The horse moved up 10 points on the dirt, from 80 to 90. Since then, he’s reeled off the aforementioned winning streak while gaining speed up to a 102 last out. Lender has taken a solid, sensible approach with this colt, allowing him to move up through his first two conditions before becoming a stakes winner in his stakes debut last out. Jumping from that non-graded stake victory all the way to Grade 1 is really the first time Lender has asked this colt to do anything out of the ordinary. He’s taken the logical small jumps so far, but time has run out. With the horse on a winning streak, it’s time to find out if he’s good enough to compete with the Sim’s best 3yos. Simulated punters who fancy this colt will know early whether they have a chance at cashing their tickets. He likes to be on the lead, and has set the pace in all three of his recent victories. If he breaks behind very many horses, he’s probably in trouble.

The other 25-point horse is Xpletives2 Racing Stables’ CAKE ‘N STRIPPERS. (Another name in here with a “wow” factor.) Representing Hispano Parlante, this horse merits a second look based on connections alone at his long odds. It was only last week that Otto Haack, a leading member of Hispano Parlante, took down two Derby lock preps. With the gigantic 29-percent strike rate on this single-stable outfit, we have to wonder if it is being operated by one of those mega-sharpies at Hispano Parlante like Ledwith or Haack. The barn has won 177 races from 610 starts. The ITM percentage is 63 percent. Whoever is pulling the strings for this stable is a tough customer. The oddsmaker has dismissed Cake ‘N Strippers based on, you guessed it, inferior speed figures. While most of the field in the Wooden Indian has run 100-plus, this colt has not, and shows a career high number of only 94. He ships to New York off a disastrous performance last out in the United Arab Emerites, flopping in a bought Grade 2 to be 11th, beaten 17 lengths. That clunker broke up a nice winning streak for Cake ‘N Strippers. Before then, this chestnut son of Tiznow, out of the AP Indy mare LOTION IN MOTION, was indeed moving like a well oiled machine. He had won four in a row, and five of his first six races. The horse had proven himself at even farther than Saturday’s distance of nine furlongs, winning at both 10.5 furlongs and 9.5 furlongs. So, the horse can get the distance. The question becomes whether he can get the distance at the speed it’s going to take to contend in the Wooden Indian.

I thought sure I’d have trainer interviews for the next couple of runners, trained by CVBear and Frankster. Both are regulars in the Sim chat room but I just could not time it right to meet up with these two gentlemen to speak about their horses this week. Guess our normal observations will have to do. First is CVBear’s STAND YOUR GROUND, the aforementioned light gray son of Unbridled’s Song who has some catching up to do if he’s going to reverse the result of his defeat last out in the Grade 3 Gary Asher Memorial Stakes. Stand Your Ground ran on nicely, but failed to threaten the easy winner, Way Too Cool, who he meets again Saturday. Even if he never looked like the winner, Stand Your Ground’s race in the Gary Asher had to have put a smile on the face of his trainer. CVBear watched this horse becomes graded placed after failing badly in his two previous tries in graded company. Stand Your Ground was 10th in the Grade I If I Don’t Win This I’m Glue and sixth as a 2yo in the Grade I Dell Computer Futurity. The horse stretches out to nine furlongs for the first time. He’s a late runner, and will be most dangerous in the Wooden Indian if he can take back and find a ground-saving trip. That 104 last out makes him a contender, but he’s got to prove himself at the class and distance.

Next is BRO, which is Orb spelled backward. Does that mean Frankster’s chestnut son of Drosselmeyer is going to run like Shug McGaughey’s real-life Derby contender did in winning the Florida Derby? Unlike that Odgen Phipps runner, Bro comes from way, way back. Look for this horse to break near the rear of the field and make one run. This colt has a lot of improving to do in the speed figure department if he’s going to reach contention in the Wooden Indian. It’s a serious touch of Frankster’s Midas touch, but it sure seems like everything this guy touches turns to gold. This is the trainer of MAGNIFORMA, perhaps the freakiest of all freaky mares in the history of the Sim. Of course, in this contest, freak is a compliment. Queen Magniforma should not be able to do what she does. She romps over Grade I fields of the best older male horses in the game at two miles. When she’s right, she just runs them off their feet and there’s nothing the game’s best turf marathoners can do about it. (Can you tell I’m a card-carrying member of the Magniforma Fan Club?) But, she’s not the only graded-quality horse which belongs to Frankster. Recently, our friend from New York City hit what he called the Sim trifecta, winning Grade I, Grade 2 and Grade 3 in one weekend. Like we say, this man has the magic touch and it will be another impressive achievement if Bro can hit the board in the Wooden Indian.

What’s that? You feel you get more bang for your BTB buck with trainer interviews? Well, all right then. Meet none other than Miss Buffalo herself, the amiable Ally, known in Simulated racing circles as Ace. This woman likes to keep an eye on the chat room most mornings and was not hard to find to ask about ADMIRAL NOK, a Kansas-bred who will attempt a shocker in the Wooden Indian. The horse is named for a character in a fantasy series by Steven Erikson. “A minor character, but still,” said Ace. He is the only Kansas-bred in the field, not surprisingly. “Wooden Indian? That’s a Kansas-bred only stakes right? We all know I can only run in local-breds,” said the trainer. But, Ally is known for taking down big races with horses bred in non-traditional states. Ally won the 2008 Guineas with YASUTORA, a Colorado-bred who amassed almost $1.7 million in career earnings while winning the Grade I 2000 Guineas in 2008 and narrowly missing the Grade I Sydney Mile in 2009, losing by only a head. “I was breeding cheap freshman sires that didn’t stand in Kentucky and got lucky with that one,” Ace said. She knows she’s asking a lot of Admiral Nok on Saturday. “I’m sure the field will be tough,” Ally said. “Easily the toughest he has faced. But he’s 100 percent in the money, that says something, I think. And contrary to my statement before, his last five races were in open stakes, so it’s not like he’s never left Kansas before.” Good luck, Miss Buffalo!

And, good luck Comedy Central! This is our residency mate Tartar next with TWINGE, an impeccably scratch-bred roan son of Unbridled’s Song who shows Mr. Prospector himself in the middle and Seattle Slew on the back end. This horse is bred to be a monster and could make a rapid improvement in any race. While he comes from a residency that likes a good joke, the morning line oddsmaker is taking this colt seriously. He’s 10-1 despite qualifying all the way down in the 13th position. (Behind a Kansas bred, for Pete’s sake.) Now, before Tartar wonders to himself too long about why he’s never seen Itch at Comedy Central, let us offer an explanation. This writer is a member of Comedy Central kind of like he is a member of the Catholic church. In name only. (All right, I had to try some kind of joke in here for CC’s sake.) Twinge will break from down on the rail and will not be hard to spot with that roan coat of his. Look for him to take back and try to manage a ground-saving run. The colt has consistently improving speed figures and looks like the added ground could help him. Last out, Twinge was a hard luck fourth in a Grade 3 going a mile. Breaking from post 10, he got caught wide around the first turn, losing significant ground. The trip never improved, and Twinge was caught wide the whole way around. Nevertheless, he ran on well to be fourth and narrowly missed the show money. Maybe with a better trip and the extra furlong, Twinge might be able to come running late in the Wooden Indian.

Finally, we have Selurvinek representing the Minnesota Testbarn Residency with TIZ ROCK HARD. As you might expect with the final qualifier in a 14-horse field, this brown son of Rock Hard Ten is rated a longshot, second longest in the field at 25-1. The thing that jumps off the page about this colt is that he is the only horse in the field who has not yet won more than one race. It took this horse six races to break his maiden, which he did out in Idaho in pure speedball fashion, running off by six lengths before holding on to win. The horse had the same kind of trip two back, when he ran off by six lengths again, going Saturday’s distance of nine furlongs. It’s a real leap in a handicapper’s imagination to think that a horse who could not hold a six-length lead in an N2L allowance is going to win the Grade 1 Wooden Indian. This horse got crushed last out in a Grade 3 going 8.5 furlongs, finishing last of all 14. His lifetime-best speed figure is only 94. He also finished last of 14 three back in the Grade I Movieland Futurity. Selurnivek is a good trainer, showing 17.8 percent winners with a big operation of 59 stables. This is a trainer who knows how to spot horses and he or she knows it’s taking a shot to run in the Wooden Indian with a colt like this. He could contribute to the early pace, but it would be a shock to most observers if he stayed there to the end.