Game Code Cracked
Everyone wants a grade winner, and I am no exception. Trying to figure out how this game actually works is something no one knows except the creator. I, by trade, am an actuary. What that means is that I work with the insurance industry in calculating probabilities (such as the probability an 18 year old male willhave an accident). Based on my computations, insurance rates are determined. In essence, I’m a statistician.
I’ve been spending a number of months, probably close to a year in what one could call “theories” as to how you can breed a grade winner. I have finally made a break through with 92% accuracy using probability curvatures. Simply put, there is a 94% chance (based on tested results of using the discovered formula) that this is the methodology that determines the abilities of a newly bred horse.
One would ask “why are you sharing this with everyone?” I could keep it to myself and vastly improve my chances of having grade winners. To tell you the truth, I have already bred a series of horses that will soon be hitting the raceway with a vastly better than normal probability of having a grade winner.
First, I have to explain that it is not a guarantee that you will breed a horse that will be a grade winner. There are a number of random variable computations in the game that with the “wrong roll of the dice” will produce a horse that underperforms. But understanding the undertoes of the game and how the system puts together a variety of components as well as “the discovery” will double, triple or quadruple your opportunity to have that desired prize horse.
“The discovery” is something very simplistic that I came across and it was by pure chance that I even looked at it, yet it is a major factor but only works to optimum probability when the other components are properly understood.
BREEDING SELECTION
You want a top notch rated horse in the breeding line. I have determined that the weight of the Sire, Dam Sire and Dam-Dam Sire are randomly determined by the games operating system. In most cases, the Sire has the greatest weight, but not in all cases. Thus, having a top notch rated horse in the breeding line definitely increases your potential of having that golden star.
What I call the BW, meaning Breeding Weight, is the first computation. Based on sampling close to 2400 horses in the game, I have determined that 93% of horses bred will have their Breeding Weight from the following formula:
Sires 30-60%
Dam Sire 25-40%
Dam-Dam Sire 10-30%
It is totally possible that a horses BW will be outside the above ranges, but that only happens in about 7% of cases, kind of the exception to the rule.
How does the BW work…For example, if you have AP Indy as the sire, and the system draws a BW of 60 for the horse that is being produced, 60% of its ability will be drawn in from AP Indy, a very good chance of a superstar. But a 30 as BW isn’t bad for AP Indy, however, this signifies that the dam sire (DS) and dam-dam sire (DSS) will contribute 70% of its ability, so you better have some good back-end blood in there.
Next is what I call a power ranking (PR). The power ranking gives horses a better chance of drawing a higher BW number for each category (sire, DS, DSS). It’s basic function is to define the better horses from the worse ones, thus educating the Sim-Computer system. These rankings are defined by the programmer and can be changed.
The PR is a range from 1 to 10. Horses with a PR of 10 have ten times as much chance of drawing a high BW than a horse with the one. As expected, the powerhouse horses do get the higher numbers. Below gives you a pretty good guidance as to some of these ratings and there may be a few surprises. I’ve tried to include the more common names that are used within the game for breeding.
10-AP Indy, Bernardini, Sadler’s Wells, Gone West, Giant Causeway, Cape Cross
9-Storm Cat, Danzig, Dynaformer, Dehere, Unbridled, Forty Niner
8-Seeking the Gold, Sea The Stars, Unbridled’s Song, Awesome Again
7-Deep Impact, Pulpit, Galileo, Montjeu, Distorted Humor, Kingmambo
6-Monsun, Tapit, Curlin, North Light, Oasis Dream, Candy Ride
5- Empire Maker, Big Brown, Rahy, El Prado, Rainbow Quest, Easy Goer
4- Danehill Dancer, Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Vindication, Street Cry
3-Smarty Jones, Point Given, King of Kings, Swain, Elvstroem
2- Fastnet Rock, First Samuai, Eddington, Holy Bull, Berstein
1-Heatseeker, Unusual Heat, Falbrav, El Gran Senor, Plesant Tap
After the BW and PR numbers run through their distributions and permutations (various statistical formulations) the horse is produced.
INJURIES, GAUGES, USAGE and OPTIMAL DISTANCE
In my analysis, I have computed that on any given race date, 1% of horses will be injured. A random number is assigned to a horse ranging from 0 to 100, this is the Injury number. Before a race is run, a random number is drawn. If it matches the injury number to a horse in the race, it will be identified as injured. It is possible that more than one horse in a race will have the same injury number. In sampling, I have only seen a maximum of two horses come out of a race injured. This is guesture on my part, I am estimating that the system will not allow more than two horses to be injured in a race and the two with the lowest post positions are the ones that are impacted.
I have also identified other computations that factor into a horses ability. In large, they do not have an overwhelming effect on the horse becoming a grade winner. Each horse has a Gauge. The Gauge is a range from 1 to 25 with peak ability coming at 25, which rarely happens. This is the wear & tear that a horse takes when racing on the track. Each horse has a Gauge which you could say is a “wear and tear” number. If a horse is in a race with a guage of 20, and the conditions are soft (easy competition), and the horse wins with ease, the gauge would move up to 25, a peak point. However, if the horse is used hard in the race, the guage may drop down to 10. Horse can recover by simply resting them for a duration. The gauge will also be impacted as a horse ages, more so after they turn 6 and not as notably at younger ages.
If your BW and PR numbers are high, and you breed that top runner, you will want to determine the Usage number. The Usage number is relatively easy to determine and also changes over the life of a horse. Usage directly reflects the rest interval. Usage is a number that is based on age as follows:
2 Year Olds 5 to 8 weeks
3 Year Olds 3 to 6 weeks
4 – 7 Year Olds 3 to 5 weeks
8 – 10 Year Olds 3 to 7 weeks
Over 11 4 to 9 weeks
These ranges have been verified to be 96% accurate. There are some horse that will fall outside these ranges, but are the exception and harder to spot.
The Usage parallels real life in that a 2-year old needs more rest as they develop and train. When the horse turns 3, the rating will change as it has matured and developed skills. Through racing and experimenting with the rest breaks between starts, you can determine the ultimate rest period for peak performance and gain an advantage over your foes. The Usage and Gauge numbers work together in the horses racing abilities with each start.
Finally the Optimal Distance. This is actually a quartile which is determined at the “birth” of the horse, but does not actually come into play until the horse is a 3-year old. This is because the long-range distances are not available to 2-year olds. The quartile has a low and high range which is the number of furlongs a horse will be at optimal performance. The range is wide from 4.5 to 16 which correlates to the number of furlongs a race can be. There is also a “spread” which is the minimum and maximum Optimal Distance a horse likes to run. The Spread can be from .5 up to 6 furlongs. In testing, the smaller spreads dominate the sprint runners with the higher spreads leaning towards horses going long routes. Again, you can determine this by simply racing your horse at a variety of distances to determine the Optimal Distance. Again, this gets you the best chance to have that grade winner.
THE DISCOVERY
I know the above is quite boring and may not be extremely surprising, but you will need to experiment with some things first to increase your chance of developing your newly bred horse into a grade race winner. By doing your testing and picking horses in the correct grouping range, you’ll increase your chances by around 22%!
Very few horses in the game win graded races. In fact, in my sampling, 1.75% actually win a grade level race. You can vastly increase your chances by choosing horses in the higher rankings and it will take time to determine the best rest periods, distances, etc. All kind of normal things in this game but the next secret is an eye opener and this discovery I came across stunned me. If you are still reading and haven’t fallen asleep by now, you will now learn one of the unexpected secrets in breeding a horse that could be a winner of the Bluegrass Derby. And it has nothing to do with bloodlines, Power Ratings, etc.
The name you give your horse effects it’s ability. Admittedly, I have had very few grade winners (at least up until now). That will of course change. Scattered Kash was my first grade winner. Nothing special in the bloodline of Scat Daddy x Afleet x Pleasant Tap. But he did get a pair of G3 wins. So what made this horse so special…the name. More precisely, the letters contained within the name. More specifically, the letters that are duplicated. The vowels ‘a’ and ‘e’ appears twice. Duplicated vowels have a significant enhancement to the ability as well as letters that are adjacent. In my case, the letter ‘t’ is twice in a row. Additionally, the letter ‘s’ is duplicated. A vast number of programmatic compilations that play into a complex formula which in the end, increases the Power Ranking. Essentially, you may call it a “Bonus” factor.
So, looking at some other examples. Western Oasis (Oasis Dream x Gone West x Nijinsky 2nd) recently won at 17-1 in a G2 event. Not a horse I own and a fairly decent bloodline. But the name puts lots of play into ability. You have a pair of e’s with three s’s in the name, two of which are separated by a vowel. Significant play as the distribution impacts favorably the power rating. I would expect this one could win a half dozen grade wins before retirement.
Another example is retired Basketball Jones (not mine either). Bloodline of Smarty Jones x Seattle Slew x Danzig is nice. Obviously, higher variables were assigned to the DS and DSS than the Sire but a heck of a name to add value. Double “L’s” that are side-by-side. A pair of “B’s” and ‘S’s” as well as powerful double vowels with a’s & e’s.
Now take Delta Clause (again, unowned by me). Delta Blues x In the Wings x A.P. Indy. Delta Blues is a 2-rated horse, In The Wings is a 3 and AP Indy a 10. Overall, not impressive but does show how the dam-dam sire can draw some power into the horse with the Breeding Weight algorithm. Still, even with some good BW from AP Indy, it isin’t higher than 30% of the overall ability of the horse. 70% comes from the lower sire and dam sire power ratings. However, the horse name gets a huge enhancement in value because of it’s name which contains a pair of double vowels (a & e) as well as double L’s.
I could go on and on as the number of examples are numerous, but the point is, the name you choose WILL have an impact on the ability of your offspring. And before I wrap up things, there are two words, which used in the name of the horse will give you a good 40% edge in having a grade winner (which goes up significantly with proper rest and determining the optimal distance). Seeing that I spent months upon months in cracking the puzzle as to how the game works, simply handing the two words to the world would be way to easy. So, I have composed a puzzle for you to solve. Find the two words in the following phrase, and you will have found the answer: “I once had a delicious meal, in the month of APRIL. It was at a ballgame where a baseball was hit into the grandstands and a conglomerate of FOOLS battled to get the ball.