Sand Castle Classic: Dancing In The (Slightly) Wet Desert
Weeks ago, when a 75 percent chance of rain was forecast for the big dances in the Dubai desert this weekend, Derbyfever trainers were starting to prep their mudders and off-track turf horses to spring some huge upsets in the 2013 Dubai spring carnival of racing.
But with the turf course condition forecast to be good and the dirt course condition also listed as good, the weather may not play as big a part in the outcomes of the races this weekend as some thought it originally would play.
With $6,000,000 on the line in the Sand Castle Classic for the 10-furlong dirt horses, there are some pretty surprising–and pretty terrific–entries in the biggest of the big money races this weekend in Dubai.
This year’s 2013 Sand Castle Classic has drawn a full field of 14, which is no surprise, and 11 of those 14 are grade 1 winners, again no surprise there.
But there are some surprises in this field of 14 in that there are a few horses in here, including the 5/1 morning line favorite Pretty Fly, that are not exactly household names.
Pretty Fly has drawn the rail, and he’s got some pretty legitimate early speed. And, that rail and the number 1 barrier that Pretty Fly is going to launch his run from could make all the difference in the world for his chances this weekend.
There are, indeed, some big names in here, like 2012 Breeders’ Bowl Classic winner Too Many Larry, who is here to defend his 2012 Sand Castle Classic crown this weekend. He‘s here with 2012 Bluegrass Derby winner Ras El Hanout, who’s looking to shake off the Triple Crown hangover from his grueling 2012 schedule.
And, there’s Twist Twist, who won the 2011 Breeders’ Bowl winner. He’s here, too, along with Skitzoid, who’s got nearly $2.5 million in earnings in only 17 career starts.
But, along with those big names, there are others, like Pretty Fly, that you may not have heard very much of before this year‘s Sand Castle Classic field was drawn.
Most prominent among those relative unknowns who are looking to make their mark here in the desert and possibly springboard their way to huge seasons in 2013 are Settle For Satin, a lightly raced five year old colt from the Supertaffy Stables. He’s a four year old colt who no one seems to have heard of, and he’s got a huge shot in Dubai this weekend. Supertaffy’s managed to keep this one pretty much under wraps so far, but all that could change this weekend, if the chips fall his way on the Dubai dirt course.
There’s also Split Second, who really started to make his mark in Grade 1 company in the second half of 2012, but he’s also lightly raced and looking to make a name for himself in Dubai this weekend. He finished second to Too Many Larry in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in 2012, and it looks like Psyduck might be looking to cash in some chips of his own with this colt who has drawn the 14 barrier in the Sand Castle Classic this weekend.
Lucky Prayer, from the Kevoman Stables, also is another who you may not have heard a whole lot about, but he looks poised to strike it rich in Dubai this weekend, as he enters the race off back-to-back 114 speed figure races.
Here is the field for the $6,000,000 Sand Castle Classic on the Dubai dirt course, at a distance of ten furlongs, for four year olds and up.
(1) PRETTY FLY (KY) Owner: Sweet16 Odds: 5/1
(Medaglia D’Oro x Rock Hard Ten x Bold Hour)
Career Record: 19 9-6-1 Earnings: $699,090
If you want to talk about horses who have flown under the radar coming in here, Pretty Fly fits that category to a “T”. He also fits extremely well in the “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” category. The five year old son of Medaglia D’Oro, who also has Rock Hard Ten and Bold Hour in his scratch-bred pedigree, has won seven of his last eight starts coming in here. And despite the fact that he’s only got three graded starts in his 19 career starts, he’s been throwing around some pretty blistering speed figures of late. Check out his past performances. He’s thrown speed figures of 113, 115, 116, 121, 116 and 116 in his last six starts. His only defeat in his last eight starts came last October, when he was nipped by ¼ of a length in the Grade 2 Hoffa Cup in New Jersey by a pretty darned nice colt who goes by the name of Prenzlauerberg. If it weren’t for that loss, Pretty Fly would come in here riding an eight-race winning streak. He threw a 121 speed figure in winning the Grade 3 Stubborn Pheasant three starts back, and all that Pretty Fly did last time out was beat quite a few of these he’ll be facing this weekend, when he scored a gate-to-wire win in the Grade 1 Glenn Falls Handicap. In his last six starts, he has led at every call of every race he’s run in, except for that narrow defeat in the Grade 2 Hoffa Cup. This colt is full of speed, and he draws the rail here, which means you’ll most likely see #1 flashing early on top of the tote board. You can bet he’ll be on the lead here early in Dubai this weekend, if his past performance charts are any indication. In a field of late closers, this guy looks to be pretty much the legitimate early speed in this race. The one question mark he has coming in here is that he’s never run 10 furlongs before in his 19 starts. That sticks out like a sore thumb on what is otherwise a near-perfect resume. But he’s blessed with so much early speed that the rest of this field better not let this guy get too far out in front early. They might not catch him late if they do let him run off and hide early. He’s also never run on an off-track once in his career, and this race looks like it might be holding some moisture, given the fact that the weather forecasters are giving Dubai a 75-percent chance of rain on the biggest day of racing in the desert all year. Can he overcome not having any ten-furlong experience? Will this speedy colt who is primed and ready coming in here handle what is likely to be an off track in Dubai this weekend. We’ll see. But, with the speed figures he’s been throwing around, if he can answer those two questions, this morning line favorite could be ready to pounce on this field in the biggest dirt stage of all this spring. Watch Pretty Fly closely. Sweet16’s colt might be ready to pull off a big one here in the desert this weekend.
(2) DWARF (KY) Owner: Grrm2 Odds: 9/1
(Dynaformer x Awesome Again x A.P. Indy)
Career Record: 34 13-7-3 Earnings: $2,927,536
The six year old scratch-bred son of Dynaformer who has nearly $3 million in career earnings couldn’t quite decide if he wanted to be a turf star or a dirt star. He’s won graded events on both surfaces, but it looks like his owner, Dan of Given Stables, has settled on dirt glory for his horse who’s finished in the top three in 23 of his 34 career starts. Early on in his career, he was tearing it up on the grass. He’s made 16 of his 34 starts on that surface, and he’s got three graded wins on the grass. In his 18 dirt starts, he’s got two graded wins, the biggest of which came last year, when he won the 9-furlong Grade 1 Hit Me Handicap in Upper New York. He was super impressive in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic last season when he finished a hard-charging fourth, beaten by only two lengths. He threw a 116 speed figure on Breeders’ Bowl day in California last season. After the Grade 1 Japan Dirt Cup, he took a couple months off. Then, he warmed up for this big race in Dubai this weekend with an easy allowance win in February, something you‘ll see a lot of Given horses do before they pop a big race. He’s never won at 10 furlongs in the dirt in his career, so that’s one question he’ll be looking to answer in Dubai this weekend. But then again, he’s only run that distance on the dirt four times in his career. That might be to his advantage, though. And he looks like he won’t have a whole lot of trouble with the stretch out to a mile and ¼ here this weekend. It’s pretty nice the way this colt has been brought up to this race, with the allowance win after the freshening. He might just be ready to throw the race of his life here. He is definitely not showing any signs of burn out coming in here. And that’s what you like to see coming into a race like this with so many graded winners. Dwarf might just be ready to come up big here in the desert this weekend for Dan and Given Stables.
(3) RAS EL HANOUT (JPN) Owner: Super 21 Odds: 18/1
(Tanino Gimlet x Covent Garden (Sadlers’ Wells x Forty Niner))
Career Record: 17 7-3-1 Earnings: $2,495,670
With his breeding, it was definitely no surprise when Super Stables started Ras El Hanout on the turf to begin his career. And, when he couldn’t quite cut it on that surface as a two year old it, it was no surprise when Super Stables pulled the surface switch trigger and threw this colt on the dirt as a late two-year-old. For Super Stables, the switch to dirt was a typical, brilliant move that paid off huge dividends in 2012. The Japanese-bred son of Tanino Gimlet who is out of the Sadlers’ Wells mare Covent Garden reeled off four consecutive wins on the dirt by open lengths, including three graded victories, and people started taking notice of the Japanese-bred colt. When he scored a relatively easy victory in the 2012 Bluegrass Derby, his Super Stables owners looked like geniuses. They had just won the biggest American three-year-old dirt race with a Japanese-bred colt who looked like turf would be his way to stardom. Ras El Hanout was closing late in the Middle Jewel, the second leg of the Triple Crown, but he couldn’t quite get there, ending his bid for a Triple Crown. But a lot of people just wrote that race off as being a bit too short. After he ran a pretty even fourth in the Grade 1 New Yorker, Super Stables gave its colt a two-month break, and all he did after that freshening was return to score a really easy win in the Grade 1 Eddie Haskell with a career-high 112 speed figure (up to that point). Since then, he’s thrown in a few clunkers in his last four races, but two starts back, he threw the biggest speed figure of his career (114), when he just missed in a listed stakes in West Virginia. His last start was in the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap, his debut this season, and he didn’t do what we think he‘s capable of there. But last year’s Bluegrass Derby winner has had some time off to recover from that grueling 2012 Triple Crown campaign, and when this horse comes off a freshening, he’s shown he can be dangerous. Since his Bluegrass Derby win last season, his two best races have come after nearly 60-day layoffs. It’s no coincidence that that is almost the same amount of time he’s going to have here to get ready for the Sand Castle Classic. Look out, when this colt comes into a race rested. He’s going to be really dangerous in this spot. And Ras El Hanout’s late-closing running style should suit him perfectly here, as he looks to show the world that he can be just as good a four-year-old as he was a three-year-old.
(4) LUCKY PRAYER (KY) Owner: Kevoman2 Odds: 13/1
(Unbridled’s Song x Mr. Prospector x Buckpasser)
Career Record: 15 6-5-1 Earnings: $633,370
CoolK Racing Stables, owned by Kevoman, sends Lucky Prayer to Dubai this weekend. Lucky Prayer is one of the more interesting entrants here in Dubai this weekend, if for no other reason than he doesn’t have a whole lot of graded stakes wear and tear on him. That’s not all this four year old scratch-bred son of Unbridled’s Song has going for him this weekend, however. In his last two starts coming in here, he’s blown out a couple of 114 speed figures in two ten-furlong listed stakes wins. This colt almost threw a shocker in the third leg of the 2012 Triple Crown, when he very nearly pulled off what would have probably been one of the biggest upsets of the year in the Grade 1 New Yorker. After leading all the way in the Triple Crown’s 12-furlong third leg, he just got caught in deep stretch by your eventual winner See The Wand. This colt might have played a much bigger role in the 2012 Triple Crown, if only he had qualified for the first two legs of America‘s premier three-year-old racing spectacle. It certainly would have been an interesting scenario to see what Lucky Prayer could have done in the first two much shorter legs of the Triple Crown had he run in them, that’s for sure. We think it’s going to play to his advantage here that he did not go through the 2012 Triple Crown gauntlet. Once he finished second in the New Yorker, he showed he was for real after he came back and finished second and third, respectively, in the Grade 1 Clerk Of Scales up in Canada and the Grade 1 Travelers’ in Upper New York. He comes in here very hot, he’s got a ton of early speed to push morning line favorite Pretty Fly early, and if those two don’t kill each other off with what is sure to be a monster speed duel for the ages, Lucky Prayer just might be around to collect a pretty hefty payday at the end of the biggest race in Dubai this weekend. He’s not just all about speed either, as he showed us in the New Yorker. He can go the distance, and that makes Kevoman’s colt seriously dangerous here this weekend.
(5) WILDLY READY (KY) Owner: Bosox Odds: 15/1
(More Than Ready x Fort Whistler (Wild Again x Nureyev))
Career Record: 20 8-4-0 Earnings: $236,205
LSUMARK Racing has a colt in Dubai this weekend who’s got the distinction of being the only colt in the 14-horse field who is neither a graded winner or a graded placed colt. The four year old son of More Than Ready, who’s out of the Wild Again mare, Fort Whistler, has only been in three graded races in his 20 career starts–and only one of those graded starts has been very recent. He ran seventh two starts back in the Grade 3 Khartoum Challenge II on February 16 right here in Dubai. When you look at Wildly Ready’s past performance charts, you’re tempted to draw a line through this guy. You can point to the fact that he isn’t graded placed, that he doesn’t have much graded experience, and that he doesn’t quite have the speed figures lately to fit with this bunch. And, you can throw in the fact that he’s never been ten furlongs in his career. But–and there’s always a but–this colt is one of the few in here who is either not a speedy front ender or a deep closer. He’s more of a lay-just-off-the-lead stalker type, and that could play to his advantage in Dubai this weekend. While the speedsters are burning it up on the front end, and the deep closers are dawdling at the back of the pack waiting to strike, Wildly Ready could find himself somewhere in between those two groups, unfettered by traffic problems. And he is definitely capable of pulling off the upset here in Dubai this weekend. He’s pulled a couple of 112 and 111 speed figures in his career, and if he can improve on that just a little, he might be a very interesting colt to throw a few bucks on in this spot. Stranger things have happened here in Dubai, as we all know. And, let’s not forget this fact about Wildly Ready. The four times he’s been 9.5 furlongs (the longest races of his career), he’s won two of them and finished second twice. If this guy gets the perfect trip, he might be one to keep your eye on here this weekend.
(6) TIME FOR BUDA (ENG) Owner: Juju Odds: 17/1
(Dansili x Tyme Bird (Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat))
Career Record: 17 4-5-2 Earnings: $1,337,080
Laura (Topicount Racing) is one of the triumvirate of owners of Super Stables, and she’s sending Time For Buda here from her own barn to Dubai this weekend. Time For Buda is the only English-bred colt here in the big race in the desert this weekend, and like the Super Stables entry Bluegrass Derby winner Ras El Hanout, Time For Buda started off his career on the turf. But Laura was quick to send this colt to the dirt early in his career. The four year old son of Dansili was doing fairly well on the grass, with a couple of listed stakes top three finishes. But Laura, who’s got a keen eye for speed figures and is not shy at all about switching surfaces to make sure she’s getting the most out of her horses, switched this colt to the dirt four starts into his career. He promptly scored his first listed stakes in his first dirt try, and after that he finished second right here in Dubai last year in the UAE Derby Lock Prep, before he backed that up with a Derby Lock Prep win in the Arkansas Juvenile on April 14. Laura chose to keep her colt out of the Bluegrass Derby, but she did bring him to the Middle Jewel, where he finished well beaten. He’s only won once since that win in Arkansas last season, and that was an allowance win two starts back. Last time out, he was impressive in a second place finish in a ten-furlong listed stakes win, where he threw a 108 speed figure. But if you scour this colt’s past performance charts, it’s easy to see why Laura’s sending him here to Dubai this weekend. Back on September 1 of last season, Time For Buda ran second on a sloppy track in the Grade 2 Winchester Derby in Oklahoma, and with a good surface listed for this weekend, that just might be the key to Time For Buda’s chances here in Dubai this weekend. He does have one other off track start on the dirt, and that was immediately after his run in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic last season. Draw a line through that race. Time For Buda was coming off a 110 speed figure in the BB Classic, and he might have had a bit of bounce in that race in the Grade 3 Mr. Hooper. That’s the key here for Time For Buda. If he can run back to his performance in that Grade 2 Winchester Derby on an off track, Laura just might have herself a Sand Castle Classic winner here this weekend. It certainly wouldn’t be that huge a surprise, if Time For Buda were to pull it off. Laura’s way too sharp to just throw a horse in a race without thinking she has a shot to win it. Keep your eye on Laura and her English-bred colt here. He might just have some fun in the rain in Dubai this weekend, and that could spell huge problems for the rest of this field.
(7) TWIST TWIST (KY) Owner: Wfstables3 Odds: 9/1
(Empire Maker x Atowncalledbedrock (Rock Hard Ten x Forestry))
Career Record: 29 9-8-4 Earnings: $4,790,696
Willyam13 Stables is known for its patience, when it comes to its horses, and it paid off hige dividends in 2011 for Twist Twist, when he scored the first graded win of his career (as a four year old) in the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup. Right after that, he upset Too Many Larry in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, and Twist Twist suddenly became the most famous horse in Derbyfever that you never heard of in 2011. The five year old son of Empire Maker has not won since his 2011 Breeders’ Bowl Classic triumph in 2011, but don’t let that fact scare you away from this guy when you’re in the betting queue in Dubai this weekend. Look at his last four starts coming in here to Dubai this weekend. He’s been steadily improving, to say the least, and that means Willyam probably thinks he’s got a good shot at scoring his first win here in Dubai after an eighth place finish here last year. Four starts back, he finished second in a listed stakes, before he scored a second place finish in the 2012 Jockey Guild Gold Cup. Right after that, he finished third in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic behind eventual winner Too Many Larry, who he’s developed quite a rivalry with. He led most of the way in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, and, despite finishing third, he threw a 116 speed figure there. After that, Twist Twist took a very long winter break, and he opened up his 2013 campaign with a third place finish in the Grade 3 Heaven Stakes on March 2, 29 days ago. He threw a 113 speed figure there, and that’s significant for Twist Twist, after taking off nearly four months. Here’s another thing you might want to watch for when you’re looking at Twist Twist’s past performance charts. He’s had a couple of starts on off tracks, and one of them came back in the summer of 2011 in a second place finish in the Movieland Shiny Cup. He threw a 111 speed figure there, and he didn’t let the off track bother his early speed, which he happens to be blessed with. He just might like this off surface here in the Sand Castle Classic this weekend in Dubai, if that race is any indication. In any case, Twist Twist should give the other speed burners here a run for their money early. Look for him to be on the front end, and look for Willyam’s colt to perhaps steal this race on the front end. He’s certainly capable of that, and with the recent sudden upturn in speed figures, he could just possibly break his long drought of not appearing in the winner’s circle. Willyam wouldn’t have him here, if he didn’t’ think he had a good chance to win, that’s for sure. This trainer has been doing this too long to not know when his horse is sitting on a big race, and you can bet he had his eye on the weather forecast when he entered this horse. With him splashing all those clogs of dirt on the horses trying to keep up with him, this might just be Twist Twist’s year to score his first big win on the desert’s biggest stage here this weekend.
(8) TOO MANY LARRY (KY) Owner: Laz3man Odds: 7/1
(Unbridled’s Song x Alydar x Seattle Slew)
Career Record: 39 10-9-9 Earnings: $10,232,462
For two years, Too Many Larry was knocking on the Breeders’ Bowl Classic door. But in 2010 and 2011, he came up third in the big dance twice. Finally, in 2012, the seven-year old scratch-bred son of Unbridled’s Song came up big on the biggest stage of all in California, taking down his first Breeders’ Bowl Classic win in three tries. It was long overdue for the colt who’s won or finished top three in 28 of his 39 career starts. That’s a pretty amazing stat that shows consistency for a colt who’s been running in the big races for the majority of his career. Laz3man captured lighting in a bottle with his scratch-bred colt, but it’s definitely not flash lightning. After 39 starts, this colt is still going strong, and, lest we forget, he’s the defending champion of the Sand Castle Classic coming in here this weekend. He won this race last year in a romp, scoring a 2 ¾ length win over Mr. Fixit, against a field that had no less than 11 Grade 1 winners in the field of 14. Three starts back in that Breeders’ Bowl Classic win, he popped a 118 speed figure, and he comes in here off a listed stakes win in Hong Kong, where he scored a 113 speed figure. Too Many Larry looks primed to take down his second consecutive Sand Castle Classic win here this weekend in Dubai. It would be his sixth Grade 1 win in 39 starts, if he were to win this weekend, and the winner’s share of the purse would push his earnings to nearly 14 million dollars. Not too shabby. His record is the stuff of Hall Of Fame dreams, and if he can do this year what he did last year (pull off a Dubai win and a BB Classic win), he’s almost a shoo-in for at least an Eclipse Trophy and a Hall Of Fame slot. Does the old boy still have it in him? At seven years old, he doesn’t appear to have lost a step, and he just might be ready here this weekend to show he still belongs on the big stage. That is where he does his best running, after all. Plus, Too Many Larry might just have something to prove here, after he knocked down the Sand Castle Classic and then the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in the same year, yet failed to win the Eclipse Award. If anyone’s got a case for revenge as a motivation, it’s Too Many Larry. And, he could just show the Eclipse voters this weekend exactly how wrong they were last year when they didn’t give him that Eclipse Award.
(9) SETTLE FOR SATIN (KY) Owner: Chicks Odds: 10/1
(A.P. Indy x Goodrich Castle (Giant’s Causeway x Mr. Prospector))
Career Record: 15 11-1-2 Earnings: $707,001
Settle For Satin has won 11 of his 15 career races for his owner, Supertaffy Stables, and he comes in here having won seven of his last eight starts. Talk about some pretty regal breeding here. This is a five year old son of A.P. Indy, out of the Giant’s Causeway mare, Goodrich Castle. And, if that’s not enough to wow you, his back end is Mr. Prospector. This colt has so much going for him, Supertaffy must be licking her chops here in this spot with this colt. A five year old son of A.P. Indy, with only 15 career starts, and 14 of those were top three finishes? Oh yeah, you bet Supertaffy is thinking right about now that she’s sitting on a hot one who’s got a lot of very hot, very big races ahead of him. The future is unlimited for this colt, and that superstar future could start right here in Dubai this weekend. This colt is extremely lightly raced, not having started his career until he was a late three year old. If anyone’s got fresh feet coming into Dubai this weekend, it’s Supertaffy’s colt, Settle For Satin. And that could play to his advantage in a huge way. If ever a colt came in here to the desert for the richest race on the richest day of racing in Dubai with a legit shot at a superstar career, it’s Settle For Satin. He’s one of three hroses in this field who has not won a grade 1 race, but when you have a colt who’s bred like this, that doesn’t make much difference. He’s got so much natural talent and so much blue blood that the lack of grade 1 experience shouldn’t be a factor at all for Settle For Satin. In three of his last four starts, Settle For Satin has speed figures of 112, 113, and 114, and that’s definitely good enough to run with this field. Supertaffy’s been nursing this guy along very carefully, and now she’s ready to make her big strike with this colt here in Dubai this weekend. Also, let’s not forget that this colt has two grade 2 wins in his last four tries. In three of his last four wins, he’s won at ten furlongs really easily, so he’s got that going for him too. He can go this distance, that’s for sure. This guy also has a lot of early speed, and when you combine that with the fact that he’s running those monster speed figures basically geared down at the end of his recent races, well, it’s going to be interesting to see what he does against a field of this caliber. If ever there was a horse who looked like he was sitting on a huge race, it’s Settle For Satin. Watch this guy in the desert. He should control the pace early, and this spot should be no problem for him. He could kick off an Eclipse Award campaign with a win here, because this colt has a ton of upside in his future. Supertaffy’s got a beast coming in here to the desert. Look for this one to come up big this weekend–if the slightly off track doesn’t bother him. Like we said, he doesn’t have any off track experience, and he hasn’t run with a field this deep with talent before. But we don’t think that’ll make much difference for Supertaffy’s monster here this weekend.
(10) DEEP NAVIGATOR (KY) Owner: Stickpin10 Odds: 10/1
(Henrythenavigator x Disparate Impacts (Deep Impact x Gone West))
Career Record: 19 6-3-2 Earnings: $919,979
Deep Navigator, like Ras El Hanout, started off his career on the turf. But the four year old son of Henrythenavigator really didn’t catch fire until about the time of last year’s Bluegrass Derby. A week before that race, he threw the first 100 speed figure of his career, but you could probably see he was going to be a late developer who might be a major player in some of the late-season three year old races. Stickpin10’s colt did not disappoint, either, when he was shipped up to Canada and scored his first two grade 1 victories of his career in the Labatt’s Ontario Oaks and the Clerk Of Scales Stakes. He still hadn’t answered the 10-furlong question after a decent finish in the Grade 1 Travelers’ Stakes and the Grade 1 Breeders’ Bowl Classic, however. So Stickpin10 sent him back to 9-furlong races his last three times out, and he was extremely impressive, piling up 116, 115 and 112 speed figures in his last three starts. He missed by just a length, finishing second in the Grade 3 Apple Pie in California, won the Grade 3 Mr. Hooper in Florida and finished third in the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap last time out (a common race for quite a few of these). He came on strongly late in that race, and that might be an indication that this colt is ready to take down his first ten-furlong graded score here in Dubai this weekend. This colt is coming into his own at just the right time here, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him do well here in Dubai this weekend in the $6,000,000 Sand Castle Classic.
(11) SKITZOID (KY) Owner: Muninn Odds: 8/1
(Awesome Again x A.P. Indy x Storm Cat)
Career Record: 17 7-2-1 Earnings: $2,543,044
When Skitzoid rolled up from dead last halfway thru last year’s Bluegrass Derby to close gamely for second place behind Ras El Hanout, you knew you were seeing something special then. This was a horse that was going to be big on the scene for a while. When he followed that up with late-closing third-place and second-place finishes in both the Grade 1 New Yorker and the Equinics, you had to wonder if Skitzoid was ever going to find a big race long enough to win. His late-closing running style seemed to indicate that he wanted much more distance. Then something changed after the Equinics. He scored huge, back-to-back victories in both the Travelers’ Stakes and the Jockey Guild Gold Cup in New York (the latter against older horses for the first time). And he proved he could win convincingly at 10 furlongs for the first times in his career. He was closing late, too, when he came from 16 lengths off the pace in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, where he finished fifth, beaten only four lengths. After that, Skitzoid took a break over the winter, and he returned in his 2013 debut to score a head victory in the Grade 2 Khartoum Challenge II here in Dubai. That was a 9-furlong race after a three-month break, so if you think Skitzoid isn’t ready for the Sand Castle Classic, think again. The four year old scratch-bred son of Awesome Again is really coming into his own, especially after he threw a career-high 117 speed figure in that Grade 3 Khartoum Challenge, a race that probably should have been too short for him. It turns out it was the perfect warm-up race for Skitzoid. He’s ranked #2 in his division, he’s throwing major league speed figures on a consistent basis, and he’s going to be a major player here. Watch out for Muninn and his colt here. This is a monster colt who looks like he’s ready to throw a monster effort here in Dubai.
(12) CHINOOK DOWN (IRE) Owner: Liam Odds: 8/1
(Rock Of Gibraltar x Red Dulhert (Deputy Minister x Storm Cat))
Career: 27 8-7-3 Earnings: $3,055,566
Chinook Down is a six-year-old son of Rock Of Gibraltar and one of the few Irish-breds in this race. He’s pretty lightly raced for a six-year old, with only 27 career starts. But in this 27 career starts, he’s got over $3 million in purse money, and he’s finished first or second in 15 of those 27 starts, which means this guy is pretty darned consistent. He only had run in three graded races before February of last season, which means he must have had a hell of a season in 2012 to accumlate all those earnigns. And he did. Between February of last year and February of 2013, he has run in no less than seven Grade 1 races. Talk about your late developer. Liam has done a terrific job with this colt. Chinook Down really didn’t start his career until the very end of his two year old season. And he only raced once as a two year old. Last year, he finished second in the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap, a typical lead-in for the Sand Castle Classic, and by the time he got to Dubai, he was a 10-1 shot that not too many people had heard of. He pulled one of the best races of his career here in Dubai last year, when he ran third behind Too Many Larry and Mr. Fixit, who ran monster races in the 2012 version of this race. By June of last season, he was five years old, and he still didn’t have a grade 1 win. That changed very quickly, when Liam got his colt back-to-back scores in the Grade 1 Movieland Shiny Cup and the Grade 1 CA Classic. What was so surprising about that Grade 1 CA Classic win was that he scored a 118 speed figure after a two-month-layoff. He comes in here off three consecutive off-the-board finishes in the BB Classic, the Japan Dirt Cup and Toilet Scrubber’s Anonymous Handicap–all big Grade 1 events. He was gaining ground late in all three of those starts, and he gets back to the 10-furlong distance for the first time since the Breeders’ Bowl last year. That might be just what Chinook Down needs here. Some colts just love specific distances, and this guy might just be one of them. He’s shown he can run with–and beat–the caliber of competition he’ll be facing here in Dubai this weekend. Now, all that remains to be seen is whether or not he can recapture the mid-summer magic got him the only two grade 1 wins of his career last season. He’s been on a grueling schedule, that much is certain. But if he can get back to the way he ran in California during the summer, this six year old son of Rock Of Gibraltar could be very dangerous in this spot.
(13) MAIN RUNNER (GER) Owner: Joe333 Odds: 11/1
(Monsun x Euro Runner (Cape Canaveral x Danzig))
Career Record: 17 4-6-3 Earnings: $357,120
Main Runner is a pretty lightly raced four year old son of Monson who comes in here with only 17 career starts. He’s only got five graded starts in his career, but he’s coming in here off his lone graded win, a huge score in the 9.5 furlong Grade 1 Toilet Scrubbers’ Anonymous Handicap. That race is big for him, because he threw the biggest speed figure of his career there (116). He won drawing off late in that start, and he beat a few of these he’ll be facing here this weekend in Dubai. So don’t write this guy off, just because you may never have heard of him. Joe333 has bred a pretty interesting colt here. He’s a son of Monsun, out of the Cape Canaveral mare Euro Runner. That back end of this colt contains the classic Mr. Prospector x Danzig cross. But more importantly, with Monsun as his sire, he might just be one of the few in here who can handle what are expected to be less than stellar weather conditions. He’s never run on an off-track in his career, but sons of Monsun have been known to handle less than ideal racing conditions, and that could be important in Dubai this weekend, given the fact that the weather guys are expecting a 75 percent chance of rain. This guy has only been ten furlongs a few times in his career, and he’s shown quite a bit of speed in those starts. He’s got a little three year old half brother who’s ranked #1 in the three year old sprint division, so it’s little surprise that older brother is pretty quick early himself–a fact that could play to his advantage in Dubai this weekend. In a race that doesn’t look like it will have a whole lot of early speed, you could find Main Runner on the front end early here this weekend.
(14) SPLIT SECOND (KY) Owner: Phillysun2 Odds: 13/1
(Medaglia D’Oro x Mr. Prospector x Buckpasser)
Career Record: 13 7-3-1 Earnings: $2,278,790
Psyduck is sending a pretty big monster of his own here to Dubai this weekend for a shot at the $6 million prize. There are a lot of similarities in Settle For Satin (Supertaffy’s beast) and Psyduck’s Split Second. Like Settle For Satin, Split Second is regally bred, he’s five years old, and he’s also extremely lightly raced. He’s got only 13 career starts, and he’s won 7 of them. He’s finished in the money in four other starts, making him top three in 11 of his 13 career starts. He’s also shown the propensity to throw some pretty big speed balls in his races, too. And, that’s where the similarities stop between the two horses in this field in Dubai‘s Sand Castle Classic. Psyduck’s five year old scratch-bred son of Medaglia D’Oro has seen quite a bit of graded experience compared to Settle The Satin, and all of it has come as recently as the latter half of 2012. He’s run in graded company in all six of his last six starts, and he’s won three of those starts. And if that’s not enough to impress you, during that stretch he finished second behind Too Many Larry in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in 2012. This horse was an absolute beast who came out of nowhere towards the tail end of last season, when he kicked off his graded campaign with an easy win in the Grade 3 Peach State Classic. After that, Psyduck saw what a talent he had, and he pitched him right into the Equinics, when he entered him in the 12-furlong Belmont Park Stakes, where he simply ran off and hid from the rest of the field, scoring an easy 3+ lengths win there. He threw what was then the second highest speed figure of his career his next time out, when he won the $500,000 9.5-furlong, Grade 1 (Are you ready for this?) Now Faith Is The Substance Of Things Hoped For The Evidence Of Things Not Seen Stakes. Phew! Long name for a stakes race, but not to worry. Split Second scored easily there too, coming from off the pace, as he is prone to do, beating a pretty nice field in Arizona. He threw a 115 speed figure in that race, and he turned right around his next start in that second-place finish to Too Many Larry in the BB Classic, where all he did was throw a 116 speed figure. He’s come back down to earth a bit in the speed figure department in his next two starts in the Grade 1 Japan Dirt Cup and the Grade 1 Glenn Handicap. He just had a couple of bounce races, after those huge efforts he put in late last season. That probably won’t bother him here, if he runs back to the form we know he showed us last season. That’s the big question for Split Second. Can he bounce back from what was a grueling end to the 2012 season? If he can, there’s no doubt he’s got the talent, the breeding, and that all-elusive superstar quality that could make him figure prominently in this race. This guy is a monster waiting to happen for Psyduck, for quite a long time into the future,too. You can bet you’re going to be hearing big things from this horse not only now, but for a long time into the future.