Will Lucky Have His Cake and Eat it Too?
France– The $70,000 Cake Sparkle Stakes will feature ten youngsters sprinting seven furlongs. The main dirt track is expected to hold its current rating of fast. The odds range from 7/2 to 23/1. Several have a worthy shot.
The 7/2 favorite is Rock For The Ages (IRE). Former partner in the French law firm Dewey, Cheatham and Howe, M. Cheatham is up. Son of Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) has two wins, two seconds and a third in six career starts. His dirt record of 4:2-1-1 is the main reason he returns to the brown after two consecutive failures across the weeds (both were stakes events). Earned a blazing 92 speed while winning at 7.5F in Japan. Should figure in the pace scenario and will be tough turning for home.
Fortynine Reasons is 4/1 under The Great One, J. Stivers. Brocco colt has a nice 5:2-0-2 record in his early career. He has made all five starts on the main track despite what could also be considered a solid turf pedigree. Recorded an 81 while winning at 7.5F in Japan. His race was also a stepping-stone into stakes company and as with the fave, he was greeted rudely. Drops out of Graded company here and should enjoy the cut back to seven panels if the long trip from the States doesn’t wear him out.
The first of two at 5/1 is Exbourne’s Senator. J. Delaney gets the nod. Full Mandate progeny will be making only his third start. He was second by less than a nose in his debut and then followed that effort with a solid late running win. Speed improved by 18 with the win and the 85 figure puts him in this company. Not sure I like racing him back on only three weeks rest.
Lucky’s Heaven is also 5/1. D. Owens is in the irons. Daughter of Dehere comes off of a nice maiden victory versus the girls in Spain. Her chart showed her pulling away at the end of that 7F event. She managed a nice 72 speed for that effort but will definitely have to improve to surprise the boys on Saturday on only 22 days rest. Like most freshman runners, she also wants the front early. Owens is the X Factor here.
At 6/1 are Mon Empereur and D. Tate. The Essence Of Dubai colt crushed a field of 12 in his debut. He took control at the half and never looked back, posting an 80 speed for the seven furlongs. Probably has less improvement to make than the aforementioned filly based on the fact that he is facing his own sex and has already broken the 80 barrier. Again, he is back after only 21 days and that concerns me with a 2yo.
Quiet Band is 7/1 with R. Truitt. Colt by Quiet American has hit the board in all five tries. His 5:2-1-2 record has been established while racing 4.5F three times with two wins and a second. The two races beyond that distance resulted in him running third both times. This horse will undoubtedly go for the lead and then will try and reverse his form of spitting out the bit at the 5F mark. If he can relax and rate, I think he’d have a better chance.
King’s Landing (IRE) is 9/1. K. Champ is aboard. The colt by Century City (IRE) would be expected to take to the weeds, but his trainer shoved him into a stakes race in his first start. He flashed some good early speed there only to give way and end up last. Still a 70 speed is nothing to laugh at for a 2yo debut. Naturally, his second try was across the dirt, where he pulled off a nice victory and earned a 78 speed. Looks to be sitting on an 80+ race here.
At 10/1 is King Impossible (AUS). B. Tatum gets the call. Zeditave (AUS) colt will be making his ninth start. He has five previous tries on the main track with a win and a second. Looks to be a versatile sort as his turf record is also respectable early on. Likes to come from behind and that should favor him in this speed-laden field. Might take a shot with him at longer odds.
Chippy’s Choice (AUS) is 15/1 under J. Shaver. Son of Aussie favorite Redoute’s Choice (AUS) blew up the tote LTO at 15/1. His victory was ultra impressive as he drew away from the field of 14 in the 6.5F event across this very track with the same rider. Looks like he enjoyed the off going, but will have to duplicate that effort on a fast track Saturday. Four weeks rest looks like enough for this guy. Not without a shot if he improves.
The 23/1 long shot is Mentality. K. French is in control. Pioneering filly made her debut a winning one across the same off track as CC above. Had Woodard for that try, however, and loses the edge by switching to French. The 71 speed was a good number for that day and the added distance should help her more. Still, her inexperience and the fact that she’s facing the colts is unappealing.
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