The Empire State Stayer
Preview Empire State Stayer 2:10:00 OGT
On the penultimate weekend of the year, New York’s track puts on two grade one races at a mile and three quarters, one for colts and one for fillies. The filly race, the Empire State Stayer, is our focus and a field of ten solid competitors have lined up for a chance at the half million dollar purse. Only two of our entrants have already achieved a grade one badge and while both have strong shots to win here there is an opportunity for one of the others to sneak through. Let’s take a look at the field.
#1 King’s Broad Arch 5/1
King’s Broad Arch is a four year filly who is exiting her first stakes triumph. She’s actually on a three race win streak, having taken two allowances prior to the stakes. She’ll have no trouble handling the distance, as two of those wins came at a mile and five eighths and the third at two miles. King’s Broad Arch has two additional wins this year. The speedy filly has been on the lead from first call in all five of those races and in two other on the board performances but has been well beaten in two of her three starts when she was not the early leader.
#2 Jersey Dream 20/1
Jersey Dream is another four year old exiting a victory but her was a $13,500 starter allowance at a mile and one sixteenth. Indeed she’s never run farther than a mile and one eighth in her career. She’s never won a stakes before but her dam was a grade three winning turf sprinter so she does have some pedigree class. Jersey Dream was claimed by current owner graywolf17 for $10,000 in June (the second time she has been claimed) and won three of her six starts since, all starters.
#3 Medicinal 8/1
Medicinal is a three year old but one of only two grade one winners in the field today. She earned that title in June when she won the Adelaide Oaks at a mile and one half on the grass. After a poor performance in the Irish Oaks she was given some time off and switched to the dirt, winning an allowance against her elders with a 101 speed. She came back just three weeks later to finish fourth in the Grade One Great Dane at today’s distance with a 106 speed. Most recently she went back to the grass and sophomore only competition in the Vicky Oaks where she closed very strongly to finish fifth beaten only five lengths after trailing by more than fifteen during the race. She has been a deep closer in her other races but that was a little bit farther back than she is usually. If she can stay in contact with this field she should be charging late.
#4 Cashier 7/1
Cashier is a five year old who has not won since November of 2011 when she took a mile and one quarter listed. She did finish second in the Grade Three Ladies Stayer Classic at this distance last December but this year has been running at much shorter distances. Her best finish came when she was second in the Grade Two D-Day Distaff at a mile and one eighth. She returned to long distance running in her last start when she finished sixth in the Grade Two Rocky Top Oaks at two miles. She may have needed that lung opener to get her used to running these distances again but she’ll have to improve dramatically off the 92 speed she ran in that start.
#5 Better For Barb 7/2
Better For Barb is a six year old five time stakes winner. The shortest of those stakes wins came at a mile and seven sixteenths and the longest at a mile and five eighths. Unfortunately her last win of any kind came in March. She was second in three straight stakes races from April through September but has finished off the board in three starts since then. Her speeds have been solid, in nine starts in 2012 she’s failed to hit triple digits only once so she can’t be counted out.
#6 Henry The VIIIth 4/1
Henry the VIIIth is the second grade one winner in the field. The four year old took the Grade One Little Rock Stayer at this distance back in June. She only attempted long dirt runs in March of this year but she reeled off three straight allowance wins before tackling the upper class. She ran a very poor race in the Equinics after her big win but has rebounded to run huge speeds of 110 and 112 her her two most recent starts. This mare has a big chance against this field.
#7 Blame the Storm 26/1
The second three year old in the field, Blame the Storm has won only three times from seventeen starts. Interestingly two of those wins have come in her last two starts, both at a mile and seven eighths and both in allowances. Those races were her first two beyond a mile and one quarter and she obviously relished the increased distance. That said, her speeds were only 96 and 81 but she won commandingly by open lengths in each race. She almost certainly has more in the tank but this is an ambitious spot to test her out.
#8 Medal Slam 3/1
Medal Slam is having her best season this year as a four year old. She’s started ten times and finished worse than second only once. She has four listed wins on the year and was second in both the Grade Two Big Dessert Stakes at a mile and one half and second again in the Grade Three Lapel Pin Stakes at a mile and one quarter. She’s run triple digit speeds in all of her 2012 starts, including a career high of 110 in her most recent start. If there is one chink in her armor it is that she’s never run further than a mile and one half.
#9 Super Stylin’ 10/1
Super Stylin’ is the old lady of the group at seven and it may be that she’s lost a step this season. She was graded placed at two miles as a four year old but this season has only won two of nine starts. She was well beaten in both of her stakes runs this season and while she is capable of running triple digit speeds she has not done so with any consistency and against this field she needs to exceed her best runs of the year.
#10 An Attitude Check 21/1
The last three year old takes the outside post but An Attitude Check may be one of the most exciting in the field. She has only eighth starts to her name but she’s won half of those and been second in two others. In fact her only two races where she failed to hit the board came in sprints. Currently she’s on a three race win streak at a mile and three, four and five eighths. Her last race was her first against older runners and she left them in the dust while winning her stakes debut with a 103 speed. This may be a tall order for An Attitude Check this year but the odds of her being among the favorites in this race next year are much shorter than her 21/1 morning line.
Good luck to all!