Japan Cup Dirt
Preview Japan Cup Dirt Saturday December 8th 2:10:00 PM Official Game Time
Japan hosts a doozy of a race this Saturday with the running of the Grade One Japan Dirt Cup. Run at a mile and one eighth over a fast dirt track, fourteen horses are running for a purse of $2,500,000. The field is led by recent Breeders’ Bowl Classic winner Too Many Larry; the runner-up in that spot Split Second; and the super filly Union Jack Flyer. Even with those luminaries in the field there are some up and comers who pose certain risk to the favorites in this field. Let’s take a look at them all.
#1 Too Many Larry 5/1
The favorite kicks off the field and a more deserving favorite could not be found in the whole sim. Too Many Larry is a five time grade one winner and the earner of over ten million dollars in his career. The six year old son of Unbridled’s Song enters off the biggest victory of his career, the Breeders’ Bowl Classic. He ran a 118 speed in that race and, if his opponents are to have any hope, in his three previous start in which he equaled or bettered that number he followed those big runs with big drops in speed next time out.
#2 Lucky’s Uncle Rich 12/1
Lucky’s Uncle Rich is one of the sophomores taking on their elders in this spot. He’s never won a graded race but he certainly has the pedigree to be a superstar (by A.P. Indy out of a stakes winning Storm Cat x Sadler’s Wells hemare). He’s run previously in two grade threes, finishing third and fourth. On the plus side he’s run an average speed of 111 in his last four starts, winning three of those races. With twenty one starts under his belt in just two years of racing one wonders if he may improve with some time off to mature but obviously that won’t help him in this spot.
#3 Bo Rail’s Magic 12/1
Bo Rail’s Magic exits the Breeders’ Bowl also, but he ran in the Dirt Mile, not the Classic. He was last in that start but it stands to reason he came out of the race in good health and was not injured. The Johannesburg colt has won his last two starts at the mile and one eighth distance he’ll run in this spot, including the Grade One Barry Foster. A millionaire, Bo Rail’s Magic has lost some of his consistency in the past year and his top speeds have dropped slightly. This is an ambitious spot.
#4 Ominous News 47/1
Ominous News is the second sophomore in the field. The son of Harbinger has two graded wins against his fellow classmates this season and this will be the first time Ominous News meets his elders. He’s running in his second start off a layoff. He previously finished second in a seven and one half furlong allowance. Obviously a prep (the colt’s best races have come at a mile and one eighth or further) he was still only beaten one half length. The longest shot on the board has not run close to the speeds of the best in this field and while he may have it in him it would be bombs away for this colt to hit the board.
#5 Union Jack Flyer 7/1
One of the best mares in the sim takes her place in the starting gate against males in a familiar situation. Union Jack Flyer was second in this race last year. Indeed she has never been worse than second in four starts against males. Last season she entered off of a smashing romp in the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff. This year the superstar could only finish fifth in that race. Outside of the Breeders’ Bowl, this has probably been her most impressive season to date, with a 6-5-1-0 record for the year prior to the Breeders’ Bowl. Her speeds have been higher than they were last year and she has just been dominant against mares.
#6 Puskas 25/1
Puskas is the only entrant in the field to never have won a stakes race of any kind. He did finish second in a grade two in March of this year (one of only three on the board efforts for this colt all year). He hasn’t won a race since December of last year. Puskas’ last four starts have resulted in an average speed of 101.5.
#7 Lookin At Hotrod 23/1
Lookin At Hotrod entered the Bluegrass Derby with much hype this spring. He had won two major preps and finished third in another but on the first Saturday of May he could not match strides with Ras El Hanout, finishing sixteenth. He’s only had four starts since that race, with his sole win coming in an allowance.
#8 Dwarf 7/1
The Grade One Hit Me Handicap winner Dwarf enters off a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic. He actually equaled his career best speed of 116 in that start. More impressively perhaps is that his previous 116 effort came on the grass. Hitting the board in this race will push Dwarf over three million dollars in earnings (or more) and he has been very good at bringing home checks this season but only has the one victory to his credit.
#9 Chinook Down 6/1
Chinook Down looked like the division leader over the summer, winning back to back grade one races in California. He entered the Breeders’ Bowl with strong support but ran an unusually poor ninth. On his best days he can (and has) beat Too Many Larry and other top sim runners. But his last three victories have all come at a mile and one quarter. His last victory at a mile and one eighth came in November of 2011 in an allowance race. He’s run well at this distance this year but the feeling here is that he would prefer an extra furlong.
#10 Prenzlauerberg 7/1
One of the top sophomores of 2011, Prenzlauerberg was a dual grade one winner who started in this race as one of the favorites. Unfortunately his seventh place finish last year was a sign of a decline that plagued Prenzlauerberg early into this year. He didn’t hit the board in a race until August but he has come to life again in his last three starts in which his average speed has been over 115. Those races include a win in the Grade Two Hoffa Cup at this distance. This may be the hottest horse in the field at the moment.
#11 Decadently 11/1
The tenth place finisher in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, Decadently has two graded wins on the season, one at a mile and one eighth and one a sixteenth shorter. In 2010, Decadently failed to pick up a check in only one of ten starts (and that came in the Bluegrass Derby). This season has been a different story. He’s become a very hit or miss runner, being just as likely to earn a check as not in eight starts.
#12 Top Five Records 9/1
Top Five Records has won five listed stakes this year and boasts an impressive twelve victories in twenty seven starts overall. He tried graded company four times and only hit the board in one of those races. He did win a grade three as an early three year old in 2011 but that win came a long time ago. There must be some frustration to have such a good listed winner be a shy graded runner but there is always hope and a son of Conduit has every right to improve as a four year old.
#13 Split Second 8/1
The most exciting runner in the field just might be Split Second. The four year old son of Medaglia D’oro has only eleven starts to his name but he’s won seven of them and enters off a second place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic. This colt didn’t start running until October of his three year old season but since then he has become a multiple grade one winner. The distance may be of some concern for this colt who has won up to a mile and one half but he is versatile and fast and a most dangerous entrant in this spot.
#14 Demond 18/1
Distance will not be a question for Demond, who’s last three starts came at this distance. He has never won a graded race and is only an allowance winner this year but he did finish second in two graded races, the last came in June. Since then he has been off the board in his last two starts. His speeds have fluctuated through the year but even at his best he is a little slower than the best in this field.
Good luck to all!