Grade-1 THE BEST OF ROME ( IT ) November 10, 2012
Grade-1 THE BEST OF ROME ( IT ) November 10, 2012
New Throughout and Rollie Pollie co-favorites in The Best Of Rome Turf Challenge
The Breeders’ Bowl challenges are now a week in the past, but there are plenty of quality races remaining this season, the 10 furlong Grade-1 $ 500,000 Best Of Rome, contested on the fast, firm Italy Turf Course, has attracted an interesting field of 12 quality fillies and mares.
Italy’s Track Handicapper has made trainer Iant7’s 4 year old filly New Throughout and trainer Mustwin’s 4 year old filly Rollie Pollie the 5-1 Morning Line co-favorite’s. The main Morning Line rival assigned odds of 6-1 is trainer Ruffino’s 4 year old filly Meet The New Boss.
New Throughout is coming into the Best Of Rome off back to back, powerful victories in the Grade-2 Beat Up Ford and Grade-2 The Romanet. The daughter of New Approach has racked up $ 1.6-million in earnings over her 21 starts. Trainer Mustwin is very careful and selective in choosing his star filly Rollie Pollie’s race conditions, she’s won 3 of 4 Graded Stakes she’s entered. Her last start was her best, a win in the Grade-1 Yellow Submarine and further evidence of the care he takes is her stellar 16 wins in 26 career race record. Meet The New Boss, runner up to New Throughout in the Beat Up Ford and a winner in the Grade-1 Friendly Wager has just recently burst on the Graded Stake scene as a top challenger and is looking to reverse the Beat Up Ford outcome. J
FIELD $CLASS$ PAR: $ 54,898 RECENT CLASS % PAR: .1229
FIELD COMPETITION PAR: 87.16 FIELD ABILITY PAR: 84.84
# 1 BOTTLE TOP 5-yr Mare ( 7/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.65
Owner: jollymon Jockey: V. Reed Style: Off Pace Closer
Form: (Excellent) … Projected 4 furlong position: 12 th / lengths behind: (- 15.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 65,379 COMPETITION RATE: 87.34 ABILITY RATE: 83.23
CLASS % RATE: .1299 Class (very good): CLASS POINTS – 23 Rank – ( 5th )
COMMENT: Trainer Jollymon’s mare Bottle Top is one of those rare runners that seems to be finding her best stride as a 5 year old. After a pair of so so, 4th and 5th place finishes in Minor Stakes, Bottle Top has caught fire. After a pair of improved 2nd place finishes in Minor Stakes company, she’s reeled off 4 straight victories and her last 2 were the Grade-3 Humble Handicap and the Grade-1 Liz Taylor, the first Graded wins of her career. Even though the late running closer is not one of my selected picks, you have to respect her and I give her a GOOD Chance of winning the Best Of Rome and a VERY GOOD chance of finishing in the top 3.
# 2 NEW THROUGHOUT 4-yr Filly ( 5/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.09
Owner: iant7 Jockey: S. Dunlap Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Form: (Excellent) … Projected 4 furlong position: 7 th / lengths behind: (- 6.5)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 128,532 COMPETITION RATE: 87.47 ABILITY RATE: 88.40
CLASS % RATE: .2857 Class (excellent): CLASS POINTS – 6 Rank – ( 1st )
COMMENT: Despite her only Grade-1 effort resulted in a less than memorable 9th place finish, Trainer Iant7’s filly New Throughout looks to be the one to beat in today’s Best Of Rome. She was easily the best in her last 2 Grade-2 Stake winning efforts, she’s coming off a career best 115.100 speed rating and she’s topped 111+ speed figures in 5 of her last 7 races, even her worst 105.072 rating would make her competitive for a top 5 finish in this field. She’s a deserving favorite with excellent class credentials and unless she bounces off that best figure, she’s got an EXCELLENT chance to win and obviously OUTSTANDING chance to finish in the top 3 in today’s Best Of Rome.
# 3 BOOK OF GALATIANS 4-yr Filly ( 31/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio na
Owner: billiam40 Jockey: J. Cox Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Form: (Decent) … Projected 4 furlong position: 4 th / lengths behind: (- 4.5)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 29,910 COMPETITION RATE: 83.18 ABILITY RATE: 78.02
CLASS % RATE: .0536 Class (fair): CLASS POINTS – 44 Rank – ( 12th )
COMMENT: Trainer Vkstables1 filly Book Of Galatians has tried Graded Stakes company twice in her 14 race career, the first produced a very good 2nd place finish and her best career speed figure of 108.230. The last try in July’s Grade-2 Call For Cash was disastrous as she never got involved and was ridden out over 35 lengths behind. She’s won or placed in 10 of her 14 starts so she’s got talent and the 108.230 figure would make her competitive today, however given that’s the only speed figure she’s produced that fits this company and her last 2 Stakes efforts produced dismal results, I’d have to rate her winning chances as POOR and her top 3 prospects as POOR also.
# 4 ALI’ISLEI 5-yr Mare ( 7/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.37
Owner: abe Jockey: B. Ball Style: Early Speed
Form: (Good) … Projected 4 furlong position: 1 st / lengths behind: (- Leader)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 51,533 COMPETITION RATE: 89.61 ABILITY RATE: 86.68
CLASS % RATE: .1429 Class (excellent): CLASS POINTS – 14 Rank – ( 3rd )
COMMENT: Trainer Abe’s mare Ali’islei looks to be the one they’ll be chasing thru the first 4 to 7 furlongs, she ran the race of her life in the Grade-1 Lone Star Park in July, leading through 9 furlongs before being caught late and having to settle for 2nd in a large field of 18, featuring 7 Grade-1 winners. Considering she broke her Maiden in a $ 75-K Maiden Claiming event, she’s come a long way and is approaching the $ 1-million dollar mark in career earnings. Despite her last 2 races producing just ok results, I’d rate her chances of winning the Best Of Rome as GOOD and top 3 finish chances as VERY GOOD.
# 5 DYNA 4-yr Filly ( 11/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 3.70
Owner: poppoptwo Jockey: P. Harzheim Style: Off Pace Closer
Form: (Fair) … Projected 4 furlong position: 11 th / lengths behind: (- 14.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 33,059 COMPETITION RATE: 84.90 ABILITY RATE: 79.91
CLASS % RATE: .0357 Class (fair): CLASS POINTS – 43 Rank – ( 11th )
COMMENT: Trainer Poppoptwo’s filly Dyna, the late running daughter of Hussonet, moved thru her Conditioned Allowances like a hot knife thru butter with 3 wins and 4 seconds in her 7 Allowance starts. However she’s found the Stakes community a bit more challenging as her first crack back in July 2011, the 6 furlong Devil’s Hill Filly Turf Sprint is the only win she’s managed in 10 Stake efforts. She has managed 4 second place finishes, including her best a nice 2nd in the Grade-2 Blood Bond Stake in April. Her last race found her a bit off form and she’d really have to improve on the 99.816 speed figure she registered to have any chance in today’s Best Of Rome. Off that that performance, short rest and lack of overall Graded stake credentials, I’d rate her winning chances as POOR and her top 3 chances as FAIR.
# 6 K’S KAMOUFLAGE 4-yr Filly ( 13/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio na
Owner: kasavage Jockey: K. L. Ledwith Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Form: (Very Good) … Projected 4 furlong position: 8 th / lengths behind: (- 7.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 27,475 COMPETITION RATE: 85.99 ABILITY RATE: 84.22
CLASS % RATE: .0429 Class (decent): CLASS POINTS – 36 Rank – ( 9th )
COMMENT: Trainer Kasavage,s 4 year old filly K’s Kamouflage is still in the infancy of her career, lightly raced with only 11 races in her career, 6 of them on turf. Despite some early success on dirt Kasavage has decided that she’s better suited to the grass and it looks like a wise move. Despite only 6 turf starts, K’s Kamouflage already has a 3rd place finish in the Grade-1 Yellow Submarine Stake and has produced a pair of 110+ speed figures in her last 2 races. The future looks bright and despite me rating her win chances in The Best Of Rome as being only DECENT, I’d say her top 3 finish chances are VERY GOOD, I think you’ll be seeing this filly becoming a grass favorite after a bit more seasoning. I really like the Deep Impact x Sadler’s Wells x Sharpen Up pedigree. J
# 7 PRIMARY FORCE 6-yr Mare ( 10/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.51
Owner: mtk76stc Jockey: J. Ledwith Style: Pace Presser
Form: (Good) … Projected 4 furlong position: 2 nd / lengths behind: (- 1.5)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 169,324 COMPETITION RATE: 85.49 ABILITY RATE: 83.90
CLASS % RATE: .0714 Class (very good): CLASS POINTS – 24 Rank – ( 7th )
COMMENT: Trainer Mtk76stc’s veteran mare Primary Force has dangerous early speed and that always makes her a threat but she’s been having problems holding together late and despite being 1st or 2nd after 6 furlongs in all 5 of her Graded starts in 2012, the best she’s managed to finish is 4th in the Grade-1 Friendly Wager. The Best Of Rome looks to set up the same way, Ali’IsleI is a quality early speedster and Primary Force will have to battle hard early which won’t bode well for her chances late again. Despite the highest $Class$ Rate I’d have to rate her win chances as FAIR at best and her top 3 finish prospects as DECENT. She may be better suited to a bit shorter distance, like a mile at this stage of her career.
# 8 SAILOR MOON 3-yr Filly ( 19/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio na
Owner: phillysun7 Jockey: V. Drosos Style: Off Pace Closer
Form: (Very Good) … Projected 4 furlong position: 9 th / lengths behind: (- 11.5)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 43,427 COMPETITION RATE: 81.23 ABILITY RATE: 80.10
CLASS % RATE: .0649 Class (decent): CLASS POINTS – 36 Rank – ( 10th )
COMMENT: Trainer Phillysun2’s young filly Sailor Moon has finished in the money in all 11 of her starts, including a very nice winning effort in the Grade-2 Lake Flacid Stake. In her last start despite finishing 3rd in the $ 95-K Falvenic Turf Filly Special, Sailor Moon recorded a 114.110 speed figure, easily the best of her career. This is her first crack at older mares and coming off that vast speed figure improvement, she’s a potential performance bounce candidate. Given those factors and her relative lack of seasoning, I’d rate her chances of winning as FAIR and her top 3 finish chances as DECENT. However, her betting odds of 19-1 are attractive and she definitely has a bright future and belongs in Graded competition.
# 9 MEET THE NEW BOSS 4-yr Filly ( 6/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 0.93
Owner: ruffino Jockey: D. Evans Style: Off Pace Closer
Form: (Excellent) … Projected 4 furlong position: 10 th / lengths behind: (- 12.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 55,176 COMPETITION RATE: 88.73 ABILITY RATE: 86.78
CLASS % RATE: .1587 Class (excellent): CLASS POINTS – 13 Rank – ( 2nd )
COMMENT: Trainer Ruffino’s filly Meet The New Boss is the “now” horse of the field as her last 2 starts, the Grade-2 Beat Up Ford Stake, where she finished a fast closing 2nd producing an excellent 113.077 speed figure and the Grade-1 Friendly Wager Stake, where she caught Lonely Rider just before the wire and registered a career best 113.330 speed rating in the process. Meet The New Boss has fired a huge stretch move in 9 of her last 10 starts and is one of the favorites to win The Best Of Rome. Her Competition Rating and Ability Rating stamp her as a filly on the way up, and she has an EXCELLENT chance to win and certainly an OUTSTANDING chance for a top 3 finish.
# 10 LONELY RIDER 6-yr Mare ( 8/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.45
Owner: given Jockey: H. Harzheim Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Form: (Good) … Projected 4 furlong position: 5 th / lengths behind: (- 5.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 33,951 COMPETITION RATE: 86.37 ABILITY RATE: 85.74
CLASS % RATE: .1310 Class (very good): CLASS POINTS – 24 Rank – ( 6th )
COMMENT: Trainer Given’s veteran mare Lonely Rider looked like she might be on her way to her first Graded Stake victory in August, she caught early leader Primary Force at the 6 furlong marker and still led the 10 furlong Grade-1 Friendly Wager with just 1 furlong to go, but it wasn’t meant to be as Meet The New Boss caught her with just 25 yards to go and Lonely Rider had to settle for 2nd. She’s regressed a bit in her last 2 starts unfortunately, but I’d still give her a DECENT shot to win The Best Of Rome and a GOOD shot at a top 3 finish.
# 11 ROLLIE POLLIE 4-yr Filly ( 5/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.24
Owner: mustwin Jockey: T. Brewer Style: Pace Presser
Form: (Excellent) … Projected 4 furlong position: 3 rd / lengths behind: (- 2.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 40,270 COMPETITION RATE: 89.00 ABILITY RATE: 85.29
CLASS % RATE: .1531 Class (very good): CLASS POINTS – 19 Rank – ( 4th )
COMMENT: Thoughtful trainer Mustwin’s filly Rollie Pollie seems to be one of those runners that can handle a fairly heavy race load and also short rest doesn’t seem to exact as heavy a toll on her as it does on most runners. Her record of 16 wins and 4 second’s in 26 starts is outstanding, it’s a bit puzzling why Mustwin hasn’t ran his filly in more Graded Stakes since she’s got a Grade-1, Grade-2 and a Grade-3 win in just 4 Graded Stakes starts, which is again outstanding. Coming off a sharp wire to wire win in the Grade-1 Yellow Submarine Stake, she’ll likely be part of the early speed mix/duel. She’s not a one dimensional speed runner and can rate a bit and if she’s patient and doesn’t get sucked into a suicidal speed duel, Rollie Pollie has a VERY GOOD chance to win The Best Of Rome and certainly an EXCELLENT chance for a top 3 finish.
# 12 TRACKING NUMBER 5-yr Mare ( 9/1 ) ML/Odds Ratio 1.53
Owner: ticketman0 Jockey: N. Lebrache Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Form: (Good) … Projected 4 furlong position: 6 th / lengths behind: (- 6.0)
$CLASS$ RATE: $ 73,606 COMPETITION RATE: 85.25 ABILITY RATE: 82.45
CLASS % RATE: .1286 Class (good): CLASS POINTS – 28 Rank – ( 8th )
COMMENT: Trainer Ticketman0’s Mare Tracking Number suffered a minor bounce when she moved up to Grade-1 competition after her smashing win in the Grade-3 Glen Is Falling Handicap, where she recorded a career best 109.875 speed figure. She didn’t run a terrible last race and could well move forward in today’s return against Grade-1 competition. She does have a pair of 2nd’s and a 3rd place finish in Grade-1 company. She won’t be too far off the pace early and I’ve made her my Long shot Selection in today’s Best Of Rome. I’d rate her win chances as GOOD and her top 3 finish likelihood as VERY GOOD.
SELECTIONS:
CLASSCAPPER: # 2 NEW THROUGHOUT
SPEEDCAPPER: # 4 ALI’ISLEI
ABILITYCAPPER: # 9 MEET THE NEW BOSS
ODDSCAPPER: # 11 ROLLIE POLLIE
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 12 TRACKING NUMBER