GRADE-2 HALL OF FAME STAKE
The firm Upper New York turf course will feature a full field of fourteen, twelve 3 year old colts and two lovely little fillies, trying to add the 9 furlong Grade-2 Hall Of Fame to their list of Breeder Bowl credentials. Trainer Supapogs1’s entry Lastpostonthebugle, one of the fillies, has been designated as a “solid” 5-2 favorite byTrack Handicapper Rudy Battaglia. Lastpostonthebugle winner of the Grade-2 Celine Stake, the Grade-3 Longest Walk Stake, and running 2nd in the Grade-2 Lake Georgina Stake in her last outing, certainly has the Graded Stake credentials to warrant the solid favoritism. The leading contenders to the favorite in the Hall Of Fame classic are trainer Madamson’s colt Super Baby, winner of the Bunny Lake Turf Sprint Minor Stake and listed at 6-1. Trainer Tazbred’s colt Bombers A Flyer, who record includes a nice 3rd place finish in the Grade-3 Palms Stake and trainer Chloedawg’s colt Weekend Romance coming off a “huge” upset victory in the Grade-2 Colonial Derby, are both listed at 8-1 on the morning line. With the Breeders Bowl on the horizon and the last quarter of the racing year fast approaching, we’re nearing the final weeks for the 3 year olds to strictly contest races against one another and enhance their 3 year old Division credentials.
FIELD SPEED PAR: 96.909
# 1 JIVE TALKING ( 14/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: super30 Jockey: S. Hommell
S48 RATING 36.44 SPEED PAR: 96.356
Style: Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Even effort in the Grade-2 Colonial Derby, mid pack at the first call, drifted back to 10 ½ lengths off the pace, tried to rally at the 6 furlong marker but only cut 1 ¼ length off his deficit to finish 9th beaten 9 ¼ lengths. Not a terrible effort, but wasn’t ever really prominent, could move forward off that, as it was a better overall field.
Form: Decent (neutral) … been running pretty consistently, races spaced 3 – 5 weeks, with steady moderate improvement, expect him to run his race today.
Class: Speed Par is just a nip below the field average, trainer Super30’s colt Jive Talking has 4 tries in Graded Stake company with his 2nd place finish in the Grade-3 Virginia Turf Cup clearly his best effort.
COMMENT: Jive Talking looks to be just a cut below the better horses in this field, while I don’t fancy him to be a Top-2 finisher, with a little modest improvement a minor slice of the purse 3rd thru 5th is certainly within his capabilities.
# 2 SIXPENNY ( 25/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: bancos Jockey: Y. Maguire
S48 RATING 15.96 SPEED PAR: 88.710
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Winning effort in Open Allowance Company against a short field of 6 fillies, interestingly, her top rivals both winners of over $250-K and Graded winners finished 5th and 6th in the race. Sixpenny controlled the early pace and finished 3rd in the Grade-3 Wynn Point Stake back in June.
Form: Good (improving) … Trainer Bancos has learned his lesson with his prized filly Sixpenny. Twice in her 3 year old season, Bancos tried to race her on short rest, with just 1 – 3 weeks spacing and both times she regressed 10+ speed rating points from her previous race. She looks to be in fine form for today’s event.
Class: A Speed Par of 88.710 puts her pretty far behind the field average. She has taken on the boys in a Classified Allowance back in February and while she wasn’t too many lengths behind at the wire, she did finish 9th in a field of 10. She’s had 3 Filly Stake attempts and her 3rd place finish in the Grade-3 Wynn Point was her best effort.
COMMENT: Trainer Bancos is ambitiously rolling the dice, but Sixpenny will have to really raise her game to manage even a minor piece of this purse. Pass on her today, just can’t see her threatening this field.
# 3 WRATH OF POSEIDON ( 19/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: asoiaf2 Jockey: F. Solomon
S48 RATING 21.41 SPEED PAR: 89.815
Style: Early Speed
Last Race: Trainer Asoiaf’s colt Wrath Of Poseidon wired the field in winning the $55-K Brown Dancer Turf Route Stake, recording a career best 100.003 speed rating.
Form: Very Good (improving) …Wrath Of Poseidon is easily coming off his best lifetime effort and speed figure. He’s improved his career best speed figure in each of his last 2 races, so there is a possibility of a bounce here, lightly raced and spacing is good, should be able to contest the early pace, which looks like it’s shaping up to be a pretty crowded speed duel.
Class: His 89.815 Speed Par figure is well below the average Par for this field, also this is his first crack at Graded Stakes company, so he’s got several major hurdles to overcome.
COMMENT: Wrath Of Poseidon is an interesting colt and has several things going for him. He’s coming off a lifetime best performance, where he scored his 1st Stakes victory. He’s got winning ways, having won 3 of 4 lifetime on the turf and certainly has shown the ability to last the distance. While I’m not touting him for a Top-3 finish, I’m definitely intrigued by how the race will play out for him.
Owner: supapogs1 Jockey: Z. Ayya
S48 RATING 49.14 SPEED PAR: 107.399
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Trainer Supapogs1’s watched in horror as his filly Lastpostonthebugle opened up a commanding 5 ½ length lead turning home, only to watch eventual winner Skunk Crossing wear her down and pass Lastpostonthebugle 30 yards before the finish wire. However, it’s more a reflection on the quality of Skunk Crossing who recorded a magnificent 112.965 speed figure, then the decline of Lastpostonthebugle, who managed an equally impressive 110.239 figure.
Form: Excellent (neutral) …Hard to find any fault with Lastpostonthebugle’s last 3 efforts, even though she’s returning on short rest, trainer Supapogs2 confided in me that she raced on ready to go her last effort and came up sharp this week even though she was being targeted for a Filly Stake down the road. She’s had 4 – 5 week spacing before this and she’s pretty lightly raced with only 10 lifetime starts so I don’t think form will be an issue.
Class: Speed Par is easily highest in the field, but was earned against her own gender so it may not totally translate, that being said she’s contested 5 Graded Stakes in a row and won or placed in 4 of them, so I don’t think class is going to be an issue at all.
COMMENT: I like Lastpostonthebugle’s chances here, not sure she merit’s the low 5-2 odds, but she’s definitely one of the favorites to win this. It could be a crowded speed duel early and that may hurt her chances late, but I expect her to be very prominent at the 6 furlong call and would be “shocked” if she doesn’t manage at least a Top-3 finish.
# 5 SARANAC ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: stallascot Jockey: V. Stowe
S48 RATING 25.80 SPEED PAR: 97.435
Style: Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Saranac’s last race saw him break 4th 6 ½ lengths behind the early leader in a small field of 5 in the $10-K Intolerant Sea Turf Route Minor Stake. Saranac drifted back 5th and last 10 lengths behind and that’s basically where he finished. The race before, the $35-K Samaniego Turf Challenge Minor Stake, saw him press the early leader and then drift back to finish 4th in a field of 4, again beaten 9 ¼ lengths.
Form: Fair (neutral) …Trainer Stallascot is running his colt Saranac back on 3 weeks short rest, he’s only done that once before in his 2 year old campaign and Saranac didn’t regress, but he also didn’t move forward in the race. He’s been pretty rigorously raced as this is his 18th lifetime start and for the most part he’s steadily improved but never taken a “huge” leap forward.
Class: His Speed Par is a hair above the Field Par so he’s not terribly overmatched here, but he’s tried Stakes company twice in his career and finished 5th and 7th, so he hasn’t actually shown that he’s at this level either..
COMMENT: Given the fact that Saranac wasn’t able to manage a top-3 finish in his last 2 minor Stakes efforts or even beat a horse across the wire in either race, makes it extremely difficult to see him improving much against this field.
# 6 ONESWINGOFTHEBAT ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: turffever3 Jockey: E. Holsclaw
S48 RATING 30.50 SPEED PAR: 99.160
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Trainer Turffever’s 3 year old colt, Oneswingofthebat challenged a field of 14 in the Grade-2 Colonial Derby and just never got involved into the race at all, breaking 11th, he quickly faded back to 13th, 14 lengths off the pace and didn’t respond to jockey F. Martin’s urging at all to finish a dismal 13th, 20 lengths off the winner.
Form: Poor (neutral) …Trainer Turffever is giving his colt Onemoreswingofthebat another go at Graded Stake company despite his last 2 dismal efforts. He’s a late bloomer, who never raced as a 2 year old but has had a rigorous 3 year old schedule and probably would benefit from a 5 – 6 week freshening rest, if he doesn’t move forward substantially in today’s Hall Of Fame event.
Class: Oneswingofthebat’s Speed Par is above the field average and his winning effort in the Grade-3 Moussac Stakes, certainly shows he’s capable of competing at this level on his best.
COMMENT: Inconsistent and difficult to evaluate, he’s been off his game since winning the Grade-3 Moussac Stakes on June 9th, I really feel he’s got a chance to improve in today’s contest as he’s been racing against better fields. That being said He’s never won or placed in a race over 8 furlongs and has only finished ahead of 1 of his last 25 opponents, a minor slice is a possibility but I have a hard time seeing him finish in the Top-2.
# 7 SUPER BABY ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: madamson Jockey: F. Nog
S48 RATING 12.01 SPEED PAR: 100.407
Style: Early Speed
Last Race: Trainer Madamson’s colt Super Baby returned to the dirt after 2 successful turf races and tried to wire the field in the $80-K Deleware County Dirt Challenge Minor Stake. Super Baby opened up a 4 length lead at the 4 furlong call only to be caught mid stretch and having to settle for a 3rd place finish beaten 1 ¼ lengths.
Form: Good (improving) …Super Baby has sprinters speed and is always a part of the early speed duel, certainly can’t find fault with his last 3 races, a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, all in Stakes company. Trainer Madamson is bringing Super Baby back on a short 2 week rest and switching him back to the turf, after a fading dirt effort at 7 furlongs. I don’t think form will be a factor against him but the 9 furlong distance on short rest probably will.
Class: Super Baby has a Speed Par of 100.407, easily above the field Par. Interestingly his only 2 turf races were against Stakes company and he managed a 1st and a 2nd which is pretty fantastic, however they were both sprints, so he’s going to have to duel with Graded quality speedsters at the Classic 9 furlong distance today.
COMMENT: Super Baby has shown flashes of brilliance as a turf sprinter, not too sure how that will translate to 9 furlongs today, especially given the amount of classy speedsters that will pressure him today. Guessing he’ll be trying to lead early, if he’s near the lead after 6 furlong’s Madamson has a special colt here. Another colt that I can’t recommend for a Top-2 finish, but I’m really interested to see how his race shapes up.
# 8 ETHEREAL DRUMBEAT ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: foxon Jockey: S. Noles
S48 RATING 20.15 SPEED PAR: 93.101
Style: Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Trainer Foxon’s colt Ethereal Drumbeat broke 6th and drifted, the leader by 7 ½ lengths at the 4 furlong marker. Ethereal Drumbeat made a bold move to sit 5th only 4 ½ lengths behind at the head of the stretch run, but stalled. He managed to pass 1 horse to improve to 4th just missing 3rd place by a nose at the wire, but couldn’t cut into the lead any further. The silver lining is that the race was extremely contentious, with the winner and runnerup posting speed ratings of 113.233 and 110.844, with Ethereal Drumbeat posting a very respectable 107.481.
Form: Good (improving) …Normally a horse that finishes 4th on the heels of 2nd and 1st place efforts is thought to be declining. A quick glance at the speed figures generated by the top 5 finishers in Ethereal Drumbeat’s last race tells a far different story. There’s lots to like about the way Ethereal Drumbeat is coming into this race. Lightly raced, well spaced races and 2 straight career best speed figure efforts. I’m guessing Ethereal Drumbeat is sitting on a big race that may put him on the fast track to joining the elite of the division.
Class: His Speed Par is well below the field average, and being kind of a slave to my ratings system, normally I tend to shy away from horses that can’t cut the class mustard. While I’m not a fan of his Minor Stake win 3 races back against a really small, weak field of 4. I do really like Ethereal Drumbeat’s last 2 efforts, especially the last race, which has the feel of a “Key” race with how contentious it was contested and the excellent high end speed figures it produced.
COMMENT: Trainer Foxon’s lightly raced colt Ethereal Drumbeat looks primed and ready to put in a big effort, certainly isn’t a lock for a Top-2 finish, but I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t fire a major effort and give a real good account of himself at the “delicious” odds of 13-1.
# 9 BOMBERS A FLYER ( 8/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: tazbred Jockey: B. Pitts
S48 RATING 18.90 SPEED PAR: 101.220
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Bombers A Flyer finished a well beaten 3rd, ( 9 ¼ lengths ) in the $20-K Herodotus Turf Route Minor Stake. Not a bad effort as the top 2 finishers recorded speed figures of 114.441 and 112.667 respectively.
Form: decent (improving) …Trainer Tazbred’s colt Bombers A Flyer’s developed a late closing, plodding, grinding style that is pretty impervious to bad form lapses as he’s almost always still gaining at the wire. He has nicely spaced races so form shouldn’t be an issue in this race.
Class: His Speed Par of 101.220 is above the field average and is in fact the highest of the colts entered today. Even though Bombers A Flyer has never won a Stakes race, he consistently finishes in the money and has brought home a slice of the purse from every race he’s entered.
COMMENT: Even though Trainer Tazbred’s colt Bombers A Flyer is usually a bridesmaid at the wire, there’s a decent possibility that this race will set up in his favor and net him his first win as a 3 year old. He needs a strong speed dual to develop and if one or two of the other key contenders don’t show up with their “A” game, he becomes a real contender to grind out the victory, otherwise it’s more than likely, “business as usual” and anywhere from a 3rd thru 5th place finish is likely.
# 10 I LOVE NEW YORK ( 21/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: wajima Jockey: Da. Gellner
S48 RATING 31.60 SPEED PAR: 94.349
Style: Pace Presser / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: After four solid efforts, including nice 2nd and 3rd place finishes in a pair of Grade-3 events since switching from the dirt to the grass. Trainer Wajima’s colt I Love New York trailed the field throughout and finished a well beaten last, 30 lengths off the winner, against a really tough field in the Grade-2 Upper California Derby, registering a microscopic 81.218 speed figure.
Form: Poor (declining) …Trainer Wajima pressed his luck after his colt I Love New York, won a Conditioned NW-3L Allowance race in fine fashion, registering a career best 99.370 speed figure with the effort. He took a shot with I Love New York, after a short 2 week rest, at the Grade-2 Upper California Derby, which I wrote about in Ethereal Drumbeat’s write up, Unfortunately, unlike Ethereal Drumbeat, the class hike and the short rest week worked against I Love New York and combined to leave him 8th and last a well beaten 30 lengths behind at the finish line.
Class: His Speed Par lower than the field average but he did finish a respectable 2nd and 3rd in a pair of Grade-3 Stakes in May and June, so he has the potential to move forward off those efforts, although he’s never hit the 100 speed figure yet in his 10 race career.
COMMENT: Until he ran a clinker in the Upper California Derby, I Love New York showed promise in his brief 4 race turf career, I’m not too enthused about his chances to move forward off the dismal Upper California effort and hit the board in today’s race, but hopefully he rebounds a bit today and at least returns to running his normal mid-90’s speed figure’s..
# 11 Mr. Fuji ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: apindy001 Jockey: C. Short
S48 RATING 20.31 SPEED PAR: 100.431
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Stalker
Last Race: After winning the Grade-3 Goodyear Stakes with a speed figure of 105.608. Trainer Apindy001 decided to tackle a pair of Grade-1 Stakes with his colt Mr. Fuji, while his initial attempt in the Grade-1 Japanese Derby saw Mr. Fuji finish 9th, beaten a fading 17 lengths recording a mediocre 87.016 speed rating. His last race in the Grade- Jean Brat, while the final placing was a dismal 10th of 14, he actually ran a much better race, looming menacingly in 6th place only 4 ½ lengths off the lead at the 6 furlong call. Mr. Fuji again faded in the stretch, but the final margin of defeat was only 8 ¾ lengths, posting a much improved 101.653 speed figure.
Form: Decent (improving) …Here’s a case where despite his last 2 finishes 10th and 9th in 14 horse fields were disappointing, I see a glimmer of a silver lining behind the finish clouds of those 2 races. Two races back in the Grade-1 Japanese Derby, the Class Hike and increased 12 furlong distance following a 13 point career best speed figure hike, combined to produce a bounce and speed figure regression. Mr. Fuji’s race in the Grade-1 Jean Brat actually wasn’t as bad as it appears, it featured a top flight group of runners and Mr. Fuji loomed boldly in 6th just behind the lead pack at the 6 furlong call, only 4 ¼ lengths off the lead, but while he couldn’t keep the rally going, he didn’t exactly fold up the tent and fade into oblivion and showed a 14 point speed figure improvement despite the 10 place finish.
Class: His Speed Par of 100.431 fits this level, so he certainly belongs in this field. He’s won the Grade-3 Goodyear Stakes and is lightly raced.
COMMENT: Mr. Fuji looks like a colt that could move forward today, this field is a bit lighter on talent then the last 2 fields he faced. While I would be somewhat surprised if he wins the Hall Of Fame Stake, a 2nd or 3rd place finish won’t surprise me much at all. Sleeper potential for a big wake up today.
# 12 MAUI DUBAWI ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: assault111 Jockey: R. Radzinski
S48 RATING 61.18 SPEED PAR: 97.009
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser / Stalker
Last Race: After 3 straight impressive turf wins, the last one being the Grade-3 Virginia Turf Cup, trainer Assault111’s colt Maui Dubawi tried Grade-2 company in the Colonial Derby. Unfortunately he tried to keep pace with the early leaders and by the 6 furlong call had already lost contact and eventually faded to 14th and last beaten 22 ¾ lengths.
Form: Poor (declining) …Everything was going right for trainer Assault111’s colt Maui Dubawi, 3 wins in a row, with a slight class hike in each, emboldened Assaul111 to take a shot at the 10 furlong, Grade-2 Colonial Derby, again the added distance, class hike and wear and tear of 4 straight consistent hard knocking efforts, combined to take a toll on Maui Dubawi. He wasn’t able to keep pace early and steadily faded from the 6 furlong pole to the finish line. I’m not sure another crack at Grade-2 company, especially with an abundance of early speed is what the doctor would order for Maui Dubawi.
Class: His Speed Par of 97.009 puts him just a whisker above the field’s average Speed Par. A nice victory in the Grade-3 Virginia Turf Cup and his sterling 10 of 12 in the money career turf efforts, certainly puts him squarely in the mix class wise in today’s race.
COMMENT: I’m not too sure that Maui Dubawi’s form is conducive to turning his last race around 180 degrees and produce a top-3 finish in today’s Hall Of Fame Classic, but at 13-1 I’m willing to take a flyer, I do think he’ll produce a much better end result at the finish line today.
# 13 GHOST OF HUMOR ( 21/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: kidvegas Jockey: T. Kallor
S48 RATING 23.64 SPEED PAR: 90.773
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser / Stalker
Last Race: Last race trainer Kidvegas’s colt Ghost Of Humor won wire to wire in a 10 furlong Open Allowance contest against a small field of 4, in which, only 1 of his opponents had $100-K in earnings. In winning the race, Ghost Of Humor speed figure of 78.762, really pales when compared to the speed figures of his main competitor’s in today’s field.
Form: Decent (neutral) …A wire to wire winner against a small, weak 4 horse field that produces a 24 point speed figure regression is really hard to analyze in the context of current form. He was improving nicely before that effort, but this will be his 2nd race on 3 week’s rest in a row, coupled with a significant class hike and that is usually a formula for disaster.
Class: He’s quite a bit light in this category as his 90.773 speed par reflects. His Stake victory the $25-K Devils Diamond Turf Route was again accomplished against a small, fairly weak field of 4, that diminishes the residual class luster of the victory.
COMMENT: He’s won 3 of his 4 turf starts, but 2 of the wins were against small cherry picked fields, that produced speed figures that won’t seriously challenge the top horses entered in the Hall Of Fame. He should be involved with the lead group early, but he’ll need to show some real improvement to hang with them and produce a top 3 finish. He has some winning ways and should benefit from this race in the long run if he can keep it relatively together through the stretch run.
# 14 WEEKEND ROMANCE ( 8/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: chloedawg Jockey: C. Orza
S48 RATING 100.00 SPEED PAR: 98.637
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Trainer Chloedawg’s colt Weekend Romance really stamped himself as one of the up and coming rising star’s of the 3 year old Classic Turf Division. He unleashed a “powerful” stretch move and won the Grade-2 Colonial Derby by 2 ¾ widening lengths at the wire.
Form: Excellent (improving) …It’s hard to find any fault with trainer Chloedawg’s handling of Weekend Romance in his short 7 race career. One thing is for sure distance isn’t an issue today as he won the 10 furlong Grade-2 Colonial Derby with “authority” and was full of run and pulling away from the field all the way to the wire. Has exhibited a “dynamic” stretch burst in 6 of his 7 races. Form is no issue.
Class: Even though his Speed Par of 98.637 is only 2 points above the field Speed Par average. His last 4 races, including a Grade-2 and Grade-3 victory are more indicative of his current “class status”. By way of his dominating “breezing” Grade-2 Colonial Derby win has stamped him as the class horse of the moment in today’s Classic.
COMMENT: Weekend Romance has come a long way in just 7 races, his potential is scary and if he continues to move forward at the pace of his last 4 races, he’ll soon be one of the top-5 3 year old Turf Classic Division colts. Defiantly one of the ones to beat today, the generosity of his 8-1 odds is mind boggling and makes him a must to include on all betting tickets.
SELECTIONS:
CLASSCAPPER: # 14 WEEKEND ROMANCE
SPEEDCAPPER: # 4 LASTPOSTONTHEBUGLE
FORMCAPPER: # 8 ETHEREAL DRUMBEAT
ANGLECAPPER: # 11 MR. FUJI
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 12 MAUI DUBAWI