Grade-3 Mountainous Derby
A field of eleven 3 year olds will go post ward to contest the 9 furlong Grade-3 Mountainous Derby on the fast West Virginia Dirt. Trainer Jdtrotter’s lightly raced colt Street Crockpot has been designated as today’s 4-1 favorite. The 3 year old son of Street Cry has done very little wrong in winning 5 of his 7 starts, his main competition is an interesting array of improving and back class colts, leading the back class group as 2nd choice at 9-2 is trainer Runninlast’s colt Silverton, winner of 2 Grade-1 contests back in March and April, but has only an Allowance score to show since then. Leading the Improving, “now” runners will be trainer Super16’s Aurturo Fuente, winner of the Grade-2 Liar Stake last time out, recording a “blazing” speed figure of 109.344 in the process.
FIELD SPEED PAR: 98.896
# 1 STORM PROOF ( 11/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: horizons6 Jockey: E Hudson
S48 RATING 11.76 SPEED PAR: 96.301
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Stormproof raced in the 8 ½ furlong Grade-2 Flat Land Derby, broke 12th in the field of 14 and rallied in the final 2 furlongs to finish 5th, beaten 5 ¼ lengths. All in all it was a pretty good effort, as 10 of the 14 runners had earnings over $100-K and the winner Newstead, who recorded a fabulous 111.673 speed rating while winning the event, is one of the favorites in today’s Grade-1 Eddie Haskell Stake.
Form: Good (improving) … good spacing, 4 – 6 weeks between races and lightly raced, the only “bad” effort he’s had in his 7 career starts was in the Grade-3 Chief Snow Handicap, when he fell 15 lengths behind early and never really got going.
Class: Speed Par is just a bit below the field average, last try in the Grade-2 Flat Land Derby was encouraging and his speed figure of 105.031 at puts him in contention for at least the minor awards.
COMMENT: Even though Trainer Horizon6’s’s colt Storm Proof appears to be a bit outclassed when weighing past accomplishments, He’s lightly raced and is certainly improving, and is certainly eligible to bring home a minor 3rd thru 5th piece of the purse for trainer Horizon6.
# 2 A CRY IN THE NIGHT ( 16/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: mtkplaz Jockey: N. Tiggle
S48 RATING 9.91 SPEED PAR: 91.085
Style: Mid Pack Stalker / Pace Presser
Last Race: A Cry In The Night is moving up the Conditioned Allowance ladder, won a ALW. NW-3L by stalking the pace mid pack and taking over at the 6 furlong marker to win by 2 lengths while well in hand, down the stretch. It should be noted that $78-K was the highest earnings among his opponents and only 1 had Minor Stake credentials.
Form: Very Good (improving) … Trainer mtkplaz is hoping a 9 week rest and several tightening workouts will keep the lightly raced A Cry In The Dark, in the good form that he’s exhibited in winning his last 2 starts.
Class: His Speed Par of 91.085 definitely ranks A Cry In The Night as an outsider in this event, having never even faced Open Allowance company, much less Stakes proven runners. .
COMMENT: Trainer Mtkplaz is hoping to strike while his colt is riding top form, hoping to parlay back to back Conditioned Allowance wins into a winning Graded Stake effort. While I don’t fancy A Cry In The Night’s winning chances in this group, he has the look of a nice colt and a decent 3rd thru 5th showing should move him forward and improve his chances to tackle Stakes company down the road.
# 3 OVERTURNINGTHEPAST ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: willyam1 Jockey: S. Tiggle
S48 RATING 13.38 SPEED PAR: 97.636
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Evaluating Overturningthepast’s last race performance in the Grade-2 Princess Stake is kind of like evaluating his career in a microcosm. He ran decent race stalking 4 lengths behind the early leaders, made a small 6 furlong move closing the gap to 2 ½ lengths and then slowly faded finishing a decent 4th beaten 7 lengths.
Form: Decent (neutral) …Overturningthepast’s form seems to have remained good, as he always seems to give a creditable effort, even on class rises. That being said he seems to have a bit of a problem with hanging in the stretch as he has in 4 of his 8 races but the fact that he doesn’t collapse means it’s more an issue of pace, distance or class, rather than poor form.
Class: His 97.636 Speed Par Rating puts him just a tad below the field Par, and it’s indicative of the fact that he usually gives a “solid” but unspectacular effort in most of his races. He seems to be slowly getting better and climbing the class ladder, with his steady, even, somewhat plodding style, it will be interesting to see where his class ceiling is.
COMMENT: Trainer Willyam1’s colt Overturningthepast is a good hard knocking, blue collar horse that seems to have a knack for bringing home a minor purse slice from each of his races. However five 4th place finishes in 8 starts and being still eligible for Allowance NW-3L, really doesn’t inspire much confidence in a top-3 finish against this field. I am intrigued however, to see if Overturningthepast can somehow manage a 4th or 5th place finish to bring something back to Willyam1 for his efforts.
# 4 ARTURO FUENTE ( 5/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: super16 Jockey: S. Kelly
S48 RATING 26.13 SPEED PAR: 101.403
Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Super16’s colt Arturo Fuente made the transition from Graded Stake challenger to a potential challenger for 3 year old Classic Division honors. His smashing 2 length victory in the Grade-2 Liar Stakes was nothing short of sensational, rallying from 6 ¾ lengths behind at 4 furlongs, he steadily gained on the 4 leaders and walked by them in mid stretch to win by a widening 2 lengths, registering an impressive 109.344 for his effort.
Form: Excellent (improving) …. Arturo Fuente’s last effort was easily a career best, so a slight bounce in this race is a possibility. That being said, it’s also a good possibility that Arturo Fuente is really dialed in and is ready for bigger and better Stakes challenges.
Class: Speed Par fits perfectly, and I’m pretty sure that trainer Super16 is hoping Arturo Fuente moves forward and garners enough earnings to tackle the Division’s best in this year’s Breeder’s Bowl.
COMMENT: A repeat of his last race should earn Arturo Fuente a Top-2 finish here and possibly move him into the top 10 of the 3 year old Classic Division. While he’s no sure thing, I really like his chances, he has the look of a colt that’s really on the upswing and peaking.
# 5 PROUST ( 8/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: bobilo Jockey: W. Bowman
S48 RATING 100.00 SPEED PAR: 102.363
Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Raced 2 weeks ago in the Grade-1 8 furlong Canterbury Park, the result was nothing short of disasterous. Breaking 14th in the overflow field of 18 Proust slowly drifted back, never making a move and 16th 13 ½ lengths behind the winner Deputy Of Death.
Form: Poor (declining) …Looking over Trainer Bobilo’s handling of his colt Proust, entering top Graded Stakes, sometimes on short rest. One could make the argument that after 3 straight poor showings, it’s time to regroup and give Proust a few tries at Allowance company or at least Minor Stakes company to bring back his winning form. But, it’s really hard to fault Bobilo’s aggressive High Risk, High Reward strategy when you realize that he’s won 3 Graded Stakes and has amassed over $1.6 Million in his 5 victories.
Class: Proust has 2 Grade-1 Stake victories and his Speed Par of 102.363 puts him solidly in the upper half of this field in class credentials. However 2 warning signs that he’s regressing are obviously the uncompetitive nature of his last 3 finishes and his diminishing speed ratings.
COMMENT: Trainer Bobilo’s colt Proust is really at a crossroad in his career. He hasn’t actually been competitive since his March 12 Grade-1 victory in the Sand Castle Derby, his best speed fig of 105.900 doesn’t usually threaten the top 2 finishers in Grade-1 or 2 Stakes this late in the season. He’s racing on only 2 weeks rest, which given his declining form, may not conducive to producing a top result. He’s got the potential to challenge here, but I need to see some real signs of life before I’m a believer again.
# 6 SILVERTON ( 9/2 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: runninlast Jockey: S. Tate
S48 RATING 33.92 SPEED PAR: 102.501
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Silverton easily won the $55-K BrassWood Dirt Route Minor Stake against a weak field as he pleased by a widening 5 lengths. While it’s not the most prestigious of wins, it was a nice tune up and added a few dollars to his earnings resume’.
Form: Decent (neutral) …After 3 straight 6th place finishes while recording steady, decent but hardly awe inspiring speed figures of 102, 103 and 102. Trainer Runninlast wisely gave his colt Silverton a 4 week rest and cut him back to minor Stake competition, the result was the above mentioned easy win and while the 95.927 speed figure wasn’t anything to brag about, my guess is Silverton will move forward off the effort and run a much improved race today.
Class: After registering back to back Grade-1 victories, Silverton regressed a bit and while not totally going off form, he seemed to hit a wall of sorts and rattled off 3 even but mediocre efforts against Grade-1 and 3 company. Right now his speed ratings put him in the Minor Stake to Grade-3 contender category, but he’ll have to find 7 or 8 more points to threaten the next level. Speed Par fits this race nicely so it will be a good race to judge whether he’s back to his previous ability level.
COMMENT: Despite being the # 5 ranked 3 year old Classic Division colt and having already won 2 Grade-1 Stakes with over $800-K in earnings, Runninlast’s colt Silverton has a lot to prove. This sport is all about “what have you done lately” and lately (last 4 races) Silverton hasn’t produced Graded Stake level performances. Big chance to make amends here, on his best effort he’s a definite threat to win.
# 7 COACH OLSON ( 11/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: winsalot Jockey: S. Gibson
S48 RATING 13.59 SPEED PAR: 93.698
Style: Mid Pack Stalker / Pace Presser
Last Race: Raced against Aurturo Fuente in the Grade-2 Liar Stake. Coach Olson broke mid pack and stalked 4 lengths behind the leaders, at 6 furlongs he made a small move to cut the lead to 1 ½ lengths, but wasn’t able to hold off the charge and slightly hung in the stretch to finish 3rd beaten 3 ½ lengths by Aurturo Fuente. A decent effort for a 1sr try against Graded competition.
Form: Questionable (neutral) … Trainer Winsalot likes to space Coach Olson’s races 4 to 5 weeks apart. Coach Olson has raced fairly often and after recording a career best 104.775 speed figure, you have to question the wisdom in adding a ½ furlong after Coach Olson slightly hung in his last effort. My guess is these factors may combine to produce a bit of a performance regression.
Class: His Speed Par of 93.698 is pretty well below the level of most of his Mountainous Derby opponents, that’s quite a bit to overcome, especially on the heels of a career best speed figure that couldn’t get the job done.
COMMENT: Trainer Winsalot’s colt Coach Olson is usually in the thick of contention, as his record of 13 in the money finishes in 15 starts indicates. However there’s a lot of factors that stack up against him here, so I’ll be very surprised if he raises it to 14 out of 16 after today’s event.
# 8 FOGGY SURF ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: kroth3 Jockey: C. Cox
S48 RATING 16.52 SPEED PAR: 100.539
Style: Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Foggy Surf’s last start in the Grade-1 Turf Paradise Equinic race, contested at 6 furlongs looked to be a tough spot for Foggy Surf, as his 12-1 odds would indicate. However after breaking 10th in the overflow field of 17. Foggy Surf began a steady surge forward after the 4 furlong call and thanks to a little help from the collapsing speed duel in front of him, he managed to pick off runners and cross the wire in 3rd place, earning a creditable, career best 105.319 speed rating in the process.
Form: Decent (improving) … After 2 Improving finishes from his disastrous in the Grade-3 Lazaro stake performance, it looks like Trainer Kroth3 has finally got Foggy Surf on track again.
Class: His Speed Par is slightly above the field average, reflecting the fact that Foggy Surf has been running against some pretty decent Graded Stake fields as a 3 year old. Unfortunately he’s only been marginally competitive, in 6 tries against Graded opponents, his 3rd place finish in the above mentioned Grade-1 Turf Paradise was his only in the money finish, hardly a ringing endorsement for today’s challenge.
COMMENT: For Trainer Kroth3’s colt Foggy Surf, it looks like it’s now or never, this marks his 7th try at Graded Stakes company, he’s coming off 2 improving career best efforts, he needs to move forward off those efforts to have a chance at a top-2 finish, a more likely scenario is he gives a decent effort but has to settle for I’m guessing more like 3rd through 6th when he hits the wire.
# 9 IDEAL KIRBY ( 12/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: megabps Jockey: J. Hash
S48 RATING 11.94 SPEED PAR: 93.994
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Won an Open Allowance Race against a small field of 4, 2 of his opponents were so badly overmatched that they finished 31 & 33 lengths behind Ideal Kirby. His other opponent was Miss Seacup, a 3 year old mare who’s earnings totaled just over $100-K.
Form: Decent (improving) …After a 6 week rest Ideal Kirby came back fit and in good form to win the above Allowance effort. I think his form is fine and if he doesn’t run well in the Mountainous, you’ll be able to point to other reasons (like class).
Class: His Speed Par of 93.994 is clearly below today’s level of competition, throw in the fact that his last 2 winning efforts were against small fields of 4 and his opponents were marginal Allowance runners at best and it’s hard to make a case for him .
COMMENT: Trainer Megabps colt Ideal Kirby should be on the front end challenging for the lead early, it will be very interesting to see if he can hang with a field of this quality after facing dubious opponents in his last 3. His last Grade-3 effort in the Rebel Yell in week 4988 saw Ideal Kirby try to stalk and hang on to the early pace only to slowly fade to a 9th place finish, I wiold expect a somewhat similar result in today’s race. This is a good test to see where Ideal Kirby’s race level is really at.
# 10 STREET CROCKPOT ( 4/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: jdtrotter Jockey: J. Maloney
S48 RATING 25.05 SPEED PAR: 103.405
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Wire to Wire winning effort in the Grade-2 Swamps Stake against a decent but unspectacular field of 7. His eye popping, winning speed figure of 110.156 suggests that the field had several colts that upped their game and dramatically improved in the event.
Form: Excellent (improving) ….Hard to find any fault with his last 2 races, or any of his other races. Lightly raced, Trainer Jdtrotter has had Street Crockpot fit and ready to deliver his best on race day, as his 5 wins and 1 placing in 7 career races would indicate.
Class: His Speed Par of 103.405 is the best in the field, and his last 2 speed ratings definitely put him squarely in the drivers seat in this event.
COMMENT: Street Crockpot should be able to grab the early lead, if he can keep it to a brisk, but comfortable pace, he’s going to be very difficult to overhaul from behind. A repeat of his last 2 race efforts virtually guarantees a top-2 finish, unless his opponents improve dramatically or he bounces from his last 2 huge efforts.
# 11 ALWAYS CHARMING ( 12/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: broohar2 Jockey: R. Miller
S48 RATING 34.79 SPEED PAR: 96.817
Style: Mid Pack Closer / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: Dismal effort, Always Charming facing a field of 10 in a Conditioned Allowance NW-3L, broke 8th in the field of 10 and that’s where he finished 8th beaten 6 ¾ lengths..
Form: Poor (declining) …. Always Charming last 3 races were dismal and represent a 10 – 20 speed figure drop from his last decent effort in the Grade-2 Captain Hook. I don’t see where that last race will prep him for a contentious effort against today’s Grade-3 company..
Class: His Speed Par of 96.817 is slightly below this level. Beyond the numbers though it’s hard to look past that mediocre last race effort against a Conditioned Allowance NW-3L field that I would expect Always Charming to have dominated given his solid 2nd place finish in the Grade-1 Florida Derby Prep in week 5002.
COMMENT: Trainer Broohar2 must know something the rest of us don’t know about his colt Always Charming, hard to imagine he’ll ramp up his game to challenge at this level after his last 3 efforts. Pass until later.
SELECTIONS:
CLASSCAPPER: # 5 PROUST
SPEEDCAPPER: # 10 STREET CROCKPOT
FORMCAPPER: # 4 ARTURO FUENTE
ANGLECAPPER: # 6 SILVERTON
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 1 STORM PROOF