Grade-1 Eddie Haskell Stake
Thirteen of the Sim’s finest 3 year old colts will compete in the 2012 edition of the Grade-1 Eddie Haskell Stake to be contested at 9 furlongs on the lightning fast New Jersey dirt. Track Handicapper Brad Thomas has awarded favoritism to Trainer Super21’s colt Ras El Hanout, impressive winner of the Grade-1 Bluegrass Derby in week 5037. The leading contenders to the favorite in the classic are trainer Bulletday9’s colt Avenged, trainer Sicko5’s colt Profusely and trainer Thematrix’s colt Newstead, all 3 runners are listed as second choice at 6-1 on the morning line. With the Breeder Bowl event looming in the near horizon, the winners share of the $1 million purse should go a long way to securing a Breeders Bowl berth for whoever prevails in today’s Eddie Haskell.
FIELD SPEED PAR: 100.157
# 1 LOOKIN AT HOTROD ( 12/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: tazdevil Jockey: R. Case
S48 RATING 23.56 SPEED PAR: 98.313
Style: Stalker / Pace Presser
Last Race: Raced in a Conditioned Allowance NW-2 (3)-months, in a small field of 5. Pressed the winner, For Good, earnings of 132-K and a minor Stake winner, but couldn’t catch him. Lookin At Hotrod held 2nd place, but slowly faded losing by 2 ¼ lengths.
Form: Decent (neutral) … good spacing, 6 week layoff may help move Lookin At Hotrod forward a bit.
Class: Speed Par is just a bit below the field average, last try at this level, the Grade-1 Bluegrass Derby, saw Lookin At Hotrod press the pace until the stretch run and then he faded badly, one less furlong and lack of field’s overall early speed should help him produce an improved stretch result.
COMMENT: Trainer Tazdevil’s colt Lookin At Hotrod should be within a length or 2 of the lead early. There isn’t a great deal of speed in this race and he’s well rested so I think he’ll finish better than in the Bluegrass but I’m not overly enthused about his ability to step up and challenge for a top 2 finish, moderate chance to hang on for a minor 3rd thru 5th piece of the purse.
# 2 RAS EL HANOUT ( 9/2 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: super21 Jockey: J. Benisz
S48 RATING 100.00 SPEED PAR: 106.959
Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Three straight decent Grade-1 effort’s, his last the Grade-1 New Yorker was his worst, finish wise, Ras El Hanout ran evenly and wasn’t able to gain on the leaders but was clearly 4th best. However, it needs to be noted the race was 12 furlongs, the farthest Ras El Hanout had run was 10 furlongs, so the added distance may have hindered his timed late move.
Form: Very Good (improving) … He ran 3 Grade-1 or Grade-2 Stakes races in a 6 week stretch. I have to believe the 9 week layoff Trainer Super21 gave Ras El Hanout will have him sharp and fresh and ready for a top level performance.
Class: His 106.959 Speed Par is easily the highest today, his last race the Grade-1 New Yorker had 5 Graded Winners and 4 horses that had earned $500-K and higher. No question he belongs at this class level.
COMMENT: Trainer Super21’s classy colt Ras El Hanout looks to be gearing for a “big” effort, I see him comfortably pacing about 7 to 8 lengths off the early leaders and then unleashing a hard charging late rally. Planet’s lining up well for the favorite at fairly generous 9-2 odds. Ras El Hanout is a definite contender plus for top 2 considerations.
# 3 BOOBIRD ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: goody Jockey: J. Lowich
S48 RATING 10.07 SPEED PAR: 101.666
Style: Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Trainer Goody’s colt Boobird really sent mixed signals in his last race, the $40-K St-Star Prospector Minor Stake. Boobird stalked the leaders in 3rd early and then slowly faded to finish 5th out of 7 runners. The winner Earache is a good horse, $284-K in earnings and a Graded winner, but he was the only horse with Graded credentials in the field.
Form: Questionable (neutral) …Eleven weeks ago, Boobird won his 1st Stake recording a career best 108 speed fig, Trainer Goody rested him 9 weeks resulting in a minor “bounce” and the “dull” effort described above. Now he’s back on a short 3 week rest and moving up into Grade-1 company.
Class: His 108.305 Speed Rating recorded in winning the $40-K Search And Conquer Minor Stake shows Boobird can be competitive in Graded company on his best efforts. Positive Speed Par shows he’s in the mix to grab a slice of the purse in the “Haskell” on his best effort.
COMMENT: Trainer Goody is pretty ambitious with this move. I look for BooBird to be sitting mid pack early 5 to 7 lengths off the pace. I see him making a small move at 6 furlongs to get into contention, doubtful he’ll manage a top 2 finish, but a sustained rally makes a 3rd thru 5th minor slice finish a definite possibility.
# 4 LETMEGOCRAZYONU ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: blankpoin2 Jockey: G. McMurtry
S48 RATING 55.17 SPEED PAR: 100.738
Style: Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Letmegocrazyonu ran a very “dull” race in the Grade-1 New Yorker, he broke badly 10th in a field of 14 and never got into contention finishing 13th beaten by 30+ lengths. However as noted in the Ras El Hanout comment the race was 12 furlongs, coming on the heels of a rough fading trip in the 10 furlong Grade-1 Bluegrass Derby, in hindsight I’m guessing Trainer Blankpoin2 would re-think the New Yorker entry for something a bit less ambitious.
Form: Questionable (declining) …Eighteen weeks ago, Letmegocrazyonu was riding high just having won the Grade-1 California Derby Lock Prep earning a career best 106 speed rating. After producing back to back disappointing Grade 1 efforts, Trainer Blankpoin2 has wisely given his colt a 9 week rest going into this. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rejuvenated Letmegocrazyonu, go crazy with a spirited much improved effort.
Class: Speed Par fits nicely, Letmegocrazyonu has raced in 5 straight Grade-1 races, the highest level in the Sim racing world, so his going off form in the last 2 efforts were not that surprising, if he’s “on point” on form, he definitely fits this field.
COMMENT: I would have liked trainer Blankpoin2 to have given Letmegocrazyonu a tune up against lower class company before tackling Grade-1 again. But, I see some real value at 13-1 as he’s Grade-1 tested and should be stalking the leaders mid pack early, look for a 6 furlong move into contention, dangerous at real good odds.
# 5 INTOSLEW ( 10/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: sixesplus Jockey: S. Bollinger
S48 RATING 7.61 SPEED PAR: 98.548
Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Intoslew rallied from mid pack 7 lengths off the pace to win by a widening 1 ¾ lengths against Conditioned Allowance NW-3L runners. A good victory against modest opponents, as nobody in the field had earned $100-K or had won or placed in a Stake’s race.
Form: Decent (neutral) …Looking over Trainer Sixesplus handling of his colt Intoslew it’s apparent that he likes to race Intoslew every 4 – 5 weeks and that formula has suited his versatile colt nicely, this race fits the normal pattern as his last Allowance contest was 5 weeks ago.
Class: Trainer Sixesplus has done a very commendable job guiding Intoslew through his Allowance Conditions, earning moderate purses, while finishing in the money in 9 of his 11 lifetime starts. I can’t blame him for wanting to test Intoslew against Stakes Company, however both his attempts against “Open” Allowance ended with 3rd place finishes, so this field is a real step up in class for his colt as his slightly below Speed Par figure indicates.
COMMENT: Nice versatile colt has a nice record and winning ways. I see him somewhere in the middle group early 8 to 10 lengths behind, but I have a real hard time seeing him improve on that positioning when this field turns home. I’m guessing Intoslew isn’t ready for Grade-1 company yet and will be hard pressed to manage an in the money finish here.
# 6 LOVE YOU JO ( 10/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: elzid Jockey: T Williams
S48 RATING 14.18 SPEED PAR: 99.575
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: Trainer Eizid’s 3 year old colt, Love You Jo stalked the early pace in 3rd position in his last race, the 1 mile Grade-2 Trial By Night Stake. Love You Joe passed the tired leaders but “hung” entering the stretch and couldn’t hold off the late charge of Graded Winner and earner of over $600-K Zen Kitty or Sacramental Wine, $163-K in earnings, and had to settle for 3rd place.
Form: Decent (neutral) …Trainer Elzid has done a good job spacing races and keeping Love You Jo fresh and “race ready”. The only race that Love You Jo didn’t give a good sustained effort in, was his first Stake try and you could blame that lack of response on the step up in class as much as Love You Jo not firing.
Class: He’s competed against runners just a shade below this field’s speed par. His last 5 races were all against Grade-2 & Grade-3 competition. Unfortunately, despite giving a good effort in 4 of the 5 races, Love You Jo hasn’t been able to crack a top-2 Stake finish, despite being in contention entering the stretch in 3 of them.
COMMENT: Interesting, hard knocking colt, Love You Jo is a wild card in here and should be close to the lead and pressuring in the early stages, however I think he’s still currently a cut below Grade-1 caliber and a top-2 finish still seems a bit beyond his capabilities, but could hang on for a minor award, if the early pace is slow enough.
# 7 TWIN OF QUEENSLAND ( 24/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: graywolf6 Jockey: M Harrison
S48 RATING 10.59 SPEED PAR: 93.193
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Twin Of Queensland rallied from 13th and last to finish a respectable 6th, only beaten 4 lengths in the Grade-3 Dirty Shore Stake. As the Dirty Shore was a 6 furlong sprint, it was a decent effort in a race where there were 3 Graded Winners and 3 Graded Place runners, at a distance that was shorter than a deep closer like Twin Of Queensland prefers.
Form: Good (improving) …Trainer Graywolf has raced Twin Of Queensland hard and often, 7 Graded Stakes efforts in 26 weeks is a really “tough” grind on a 3 year old. This 6 week freshening, on the heels of the good sprint effort should have Twin Of Queensland fit and ready for his best effort in the Eddie Haskell.
Class: Graywolf’s colt Twin Of Queensland started his 3 year old campaign with a nice win in the $75-K Black Fire Special minor Stake, since than he’s raced 7 races against either Grade-1 or Grade-3 competition without an in the money finish to his credit.
COMMENT: Will the 8th try in a Graded Stake be the charm for Twin Of Queensland, I have my doubts, but I will say that, he’s coming in to this as fresh as he’s been since his initial Stake win back in January. He’ll be trailing the field early, but is a threat to grab a minor share as he should be passing tired runners late.
# 8 TOWD TIN POT ( 12/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: arminarm Jockey: S. Myslinski
S48 RATING 6.69 SPEED PAR: 96.248
Style: Pace Presser / Stalker
Last Race: Normally a victory in a Conditioned Allowance NW-4x race wouldn’t be a ringing endorsement for a horse moving into Stakes competition, especially selecting a Grade-1 race for the initial effort. But Trainer Arminarm has a few reasons to be somewhat optimistic. First is the nice jump in class from Alw NW-2L to AlW NW-4x, skipping 3 conditions and dominating will definitely raise a few eyebrows. Second is the excellent 105 speed figure Towd Tin Pot earned, certainly would allow him to be competitive in Stakes competition. Lastly, Towd Tin Pot is a lightly raced colt with only 5 dirt efforts on his record, so he’s improving and only scratching the surface of his ability.
Form: Good (improving) …It’s hard to argue with any moves Trainer Arminarm has made with Towd Tin Pot so far in his young career, I doubt that fitness and/or current form will prevent a good effort in today’s race.
Class: His Speed Par is well below the field average, and since this is Towd Tin Pot’s first Stake effort and he’s taking another fairly substantial class hike, it’s really asking quite a bit to expect he manages a top-3 finish against this accomplished of a field.
COMMENT: I really like this colt and I’m pretty confident that Towd Tin Pot will have a major impact in Graded.Stakes competition eventually, but I’d pass on him today. I would guess he’ll be stalking the early speed; a few lengths off the pace and try to make his move around the 6 furlong marker. A top-3 effort would really impress and make a believer out of me.
# 9 MAIN RUNNER ( 12/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: joe333 Jockey: E. Walker
S48 RATING 14.22 SPEED PAR: 98.732
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Last Race: After a 10 week layoff, Main Runner came back fresh and turned in a good game effort in the Grade-1 Equinic Subway Crawl. He pressed the early pace and made a bold move at 6 furlongs and was a nose from the lead, but through the stretch he faded, but gamely held on for the 3rd place finish, beaten 7 lengths against a star studded field, consisting of 6 Graded winners, 3 of which already had career earnings of $1-Million plus.
Form: Questionable (declining) …It’s hard to imagine Trainer Joe333 could plan a much more ambitious schedule than back to back 10 & 9 furlong races against Grade-1 company, I’ve got a fair suspicion that last week’s big Grade-1 effort may cause Main Runner to bounce a bit today.
Class: His Speed Par is slightly below the field average, also even though Main Runner has a Minor Stake win to his credit, it was accomplished against a short field of 4 and his opponents total earnings were under $50-K. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement against bone fide Graded Stakes competition.
COMMENT: Trainer Joe333’s colt Main Runner has had an interesting career already. It looked like Main Runner couldn’t run a lick in his first 2 career starts, however after that, he’s 8 for 8 in the money. Unfortunately I think the top-3 streak stops here. Even though Main Runner should be on or very near the early lead, my guess is the pressure exerted by classy opponents and the short 1 week rest will take its toll at about the 6 furlong marker.
# 10 AVENGED ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: bulletday9 Jockey: C. Hargain
S48 RATING 19.56 SPEED PAR: 104.077
Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser / Mid Pack Stalker
Last Race: In the Grade-2 Flat Land Derby, against a field that shaped up similar to today’s, somewhat devoid of real early speed. Trainer Bulletday9 instructed jockey I Perry aboard his colt Avenged, to go for the early lead. After dueling with Micro Mamba to the 4 furlong pole, Perry asked Avenged to let it loose and opened up a 2 length advantage at the 6 furlong call. Avenged held on gamely thru mid stretch, but had to settle for 3rd place money when they hit the wire.
Form: Good (improving) …Avenged went off form following back to back Grade-3 wins in week 5009 & 5051. After a 7 week rest, the improved effort in the Flat Land Derby, shows Avenged is back in form and ready again tackle Graded competition. Avenged has reportedly worked well in the 6 weeks following the Flat Land and if he’s allowed to control the early pace, should be double tough to catch today.
Class: His Speed Par is the 2nd best in the field, so he certainly belongs in this field, I think his speed and class will allow Bulletday9 to be able to position Avenged wherever he feels it best suits his chances to win today, leading, pressing or stalking.
COMMENT: Avenged will certainly be a factor in the first 6 furlongs. He’s versatile enough that he may be the early leader or pressing whoever does assume the early lead. He also could be stalking early and then apply pressure between the 4 – 6 furlong markers. Either way, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be a major factor and have a very good chance to hang on for at least an in the money finish. Although I will add that little used jockey C Hargain doesn’t enhance his winning chances. Definite contender with a decent chance for top-2 finish.
# 11 PROFUSELY ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: sicko5 Jockey: Q. Oliver
S48 RATING 20.31 SPEED PAR: 101.656
Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: Profusely’s hard charging stretch rally in the 8 ½ furlong Grade-2 Liar Stakes should set him up very well in today’s Haskell. Conventional wisdom projects that the extra ½ furlong in today’s event could be the edge projects Profusely from bridesmaid to winner. He was still gaining with every stride after making up over 5 lengths against eventual winner Arturo Fuente.
Form: Good (neutral) …It’s a little harder to judge form with the dead off pace closers as their race begins when the front runners start tailing off. Trainer Sicko5 has made sure that Profusely’s races are generally spaced 4 – 6 weeks apart. Profusely took a big leap forward in winning the $25-K Spoken Dirt minor Stake 3 races back, he then hung in the stretch in the Grade-2 Buckeye Derby, but still ran a respectable 4th and set up his last really good Liar Stake effort. Profusely has exhibited a plodding, grinding style in 3 of his 5 dirt races, so it’ll be interesting to see if he maintains the hard charging Liar Stake effort into today’s event or regresses back to the grinding mode.
Class: His Speed Par of 101.65 fits this level, so he certainly belongs in this field, even though he hasn’t won a Graded event, Profusely has competed against this level of competition and usually acquits himself well.
COMMENT: Trainer Sico5’s colt has Graded Stake credentials; so you can’t dismiss his chances. I look for him to be 7 – 9 lengths off the pace early. If Profusely repeats his Liar Stake effort, it’s easy to see a top-3 finish here. Otherwise he’s a good candidate for a minor 4th thru 6th finish, passing the tired colts late.
# 12 NEWSTEAD ( 6/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: thematrix Jockey: B. Hefferman
S48 RATING 19.19 SPEED PAR: 102.157
Style: Off Pace Closer
Last Race: Hard to find any fault with Newstead’s Grade-2 Flat Land Derby victory. He unleashed a furious stretch rally and caught Clinton’s Ditch Graded Stake winner and earner of $900-K plus, just 20 yards before the wire earning a scintillating speed figure of 111. This effort certainly propels him to a role as one of the favorites to crack the Grade-1 win barrier.
Form: Excellent (improving) …Trainer Thematrix has done a very creditable job of spacing Newstead’s races and moving him up the class ladder successfully. He’s made huge, hard charging stretch moves in 7 of his 9 races, so it’s likely that his best form will again come into play, although there’s always a potential “bounce” lurking after 2 huge back to back efforts.
Class: His Speed Par of 102.157 makes Newstead a “prime” player in the Haskell. With a Grade-2 victory and a respectable 5th place finish in the Grade-1 Florida Derby already on his resume’, it’s safe to make the statement that Thematrix’s colt Newstead is one of the budding stars in the 3 year old Dirt Classic Division.
COMMENT: I’m guessing trainer Thematrix is looking at this race as Newstead’s ticket to the Breeder Bowl, so I’ll be pretty shocked if Newstead doesn’t make at least a top-3 appearance at the wire, the only cautionary fact is that he’ll most likely be 9 – 10 lengths from the lead at 4 furlongs and this field doesn’t have a lot of dynamic early speed, so the pace shouldn’t be extraordinarily quick, which allows the front runners to hang on longer. A definite Prime Contender for top-2 honors.
# 13 SACRAMENTAL WINE ( 15/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: depark Jockey: A. Kelly
S48 RATING 16.57 SPEED PAR: 94.801
Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Last Race: The Grade-2 Trial By Night Stakes saw Trainer Depark’s 3 year old colt Sacramental Wine at his very best. Positioned 8th at the 4 furlong call, 8 lengths off of the lead, Sacramental Wine rallied through the stretch catching the early leader Love You Jo for 2nd place in mid stretch, losing to Graded Winner and earner of over $600-K Zen Kitty, by 1 ¾ lengths.
Form: Good (improving) …Coming off a disappointing 3rd place finish out of 4 runners in a 10 furlong Conditioned Allowance NW-4x event. Sacramental’s Grade-2 Trail By Night Stake effort was a huge move forward as the 103 speed figure he earned was a career best. Form won’t be the problem if Sacramental Wine doesn’t manage a top-3 finish in the Haskell.
Class: He’s a bit light in this category as his 94.801 speed par reflects. Sacramental Wine’s last race 2nd place finish in a Grade-2 event is the highlight of his career. He has also managed to finish 4th in the Grade-2 Saint Vincent and a 3rd place effort in the Grade-3 Darling Squash Futurity as a 2 year old, so he got some credentials.
COMMENT: Just too many questions surround Deparks colt Sacramental Wine to recommend him here, not the least of which is that he hasn’t had a top-3 finish beyond 8 furlongs. The lack of early speed and the fact he’ll be surrounded by colts with more credentials that he’ll need to rally past, make even a top-3 finish a very daunting task.
SELECTIONS:
CLASSCAPPER: # 2 RAS EL HANOUT
SPEEDCAPPER: # 10 AVENGED
FORMCAPPER: # 12 NEWSTEAD
ANGLECAPPER: # 3 BOOBIRD