Equinics Garrison Savannah (turf) Mile
Customarily when you have a field consisting of 17 of the Sim’s best runner’s, the race favorite’s odds tend to be bunched between 5-1 and 8-1 with only a couple points separating the top 6 or 7 choices, in fact it’s usually near to impossible to distinguish who actually should be favored after a look at their racing records. The 2012 version of the Garrison Savannah however, has a “clear cut” favorite and that is Ladofmanor’s 3 year old colt, Middle Name Danger, who’s listed at a “solid” 7-2 by the Track Handicapper. With lifetime earnings of over $1.3 Million and coming off back to back dominating wins in the Grade-2 St. James Tavern and last out, when he captured the Grade-1 Jean Brat and made it look easy, Middle Name Danger certainly qualifies as a worthy favorite. The top challengers to him today, both listed at 8-1 by the Track Handicapper are Bsben5’s 3 year old colt Bitter Lime, winner of the Grade-1 2000 Guineas on the Newmarket grass and Abe’s 3 year colt Too Many Shots, winner of 3 of his last 4 earning speed ratings of 100+ in each of them. The Berkshire Turf course is playing firm and with several quality early speed runners, the pace should be brisk and honest.
# 1 IT’S ESSENTIAL ( 29/1 ) Residence: Vermont
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Eskendereya Dam (sire line): Danzig
Owner: stormboot2 Jockey: D Evans
S48 RATING 127.5 Style: Off Pace Closer
COMMENT: Consistent money earner as a 3 year old, but has come up winless in 4 tries against Stakes company. Best 3 year old effort was a 2nd place finish against Conditioned Allowance NW-4L runners, $110-K was the most any of his opponents had earned. Trainer Stormboot2’s Colt It’s Essential tries hard, but may lack the Graded level seasoning to be a factor here.
# 2 BITTER LIME ( 8/1 ) Residence: Blazing Saddles
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Tanino Gimlet Dam (sire line): Monsun
Owner: bsben5 Jockey: T Loesch
S48 RATING 505.6 Style: Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser
COMMENT: Already proud earner just short of $1 Million in his brief 11 race career, indicates Trainer Bsben5’s colt Bitter Lime is the “real deal”. In his 2nd last race, Bitter Lime stalked the dueling Bristol Baron and Snatch Away and caught them both in mid stretch and put them both away recording a 106 speed figure for his winning effort. That field was pretty close to the same level he faces today. Battle tested against Graded competition, look for Bitter Lime to try and overhaul the early speed around the 6 furlong marker. Definitely a top contender to bag his 2nd Grade-1 victory. A definite “must” include on all betting tickets.
# 3 BLAME IT ON THE BOOGIE ( 18/1 ) Residence: Yoss
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Blame Dam (sire line): Discreet Cat
Owner: bentacon Jockey: K Livestock
S48 RATING 121.1 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
COMMENT: Trainer Bentacon’s colt Blame It On The Boogie has recorded 3 wins in his 4 turf starts, so it’s obvious his best game is on the turf. His last 2 races against Open Allowance were good, but only 1 of the 11 horses Bentacon’s colt faced had earned in excess of $100-K. He’s definitely got a bright turf future and is improving as his career best 102 speed figure last race indicates, but there’s so much quality speed to chase here and Blame It On The Boogie has so little turf experience, that it is very hard to envision a top 3 showing today. but he should move up from the effort.
# 4 JENEREGRETTERIEN ( 62/1 ) Residence: City Race Rhein Main Turf Club
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Lookin At Lucky Dam (sire line): Refuse To Bend
Owner: jayjay Jockey: B Tate
S48 RATING 96.1 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
COMMENT: Not a lot in his record to recommend trainer Jayjay’s 3 year old colt Jeneregretterien in today’s race. He ran a good race to break his Maiden running a solid 79 speed figure at today’s conditions, 8 furlongs on Spain’s firm turf course. Since that race Jeneregretterien has taken 9 cracks at conquering the Allowance NW-2L conditions at various distances between 6 to 8 ½ furlongs, but the best Jeneregretterein could accomplish was ( 4 ) 3rd place showings with 90 as the highest speed rating he could attain. Still eligible for all of his NW Allowance conditions so today’s field is about 5 class levels up from where he’s currently at. Hard to imagine he’s got much of a chance here against this class, has faded in the stretch in all 9 of his conditioned Allowance efforts. Pass today!
# 5 CYRUS DE VIRUS ( 15/1 ) Residence: Hispano Parlante
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Giant’s Causeway Dam (sire line): Kingmambo
Owner: wreckagees Jockey: J Wesselman
S48 RATING 710.26 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
COMMENT: This race has huge consequences for trainer Wreakagees 3 year old colt Cyrus De Virus. After winning the prestigious Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf. Cyrus De Virus looked to be unbeatable, but a badly fading effort in the Grade-1 Arkansas Derby and 2 mediocre tune-ups, a 2nd in a Conditioned Allowance NW-2 in 3 months and a fading 4th place effort in his latest start the Grade-3 Moussac indicate without a doubt that Wreckages colt has regressed a bit. Hard to believe a colt with this record and talent is somewhat of a 15-1 Wild Card in this race, the odds are obviously based on questions about his form after his last 2 performances, and the fact that his speed ratings are excellent, but not Upper Level dynamic. There are also some questions about his ability as a 3 year old to duel and persevere against quality speed opponents, but he is an interesting play if at his best.
# 6 TURFWINS BB ( 99/1 ) Residence: Saltire
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Aqlaam Dam (sire line): Mugharreb
Owner: turfwins Jockey: M Madden
S48 RATING 71.4 Style: Pace Presser / Early Speed
COMMENT: The sum total of trainer Turfwins 3 year old colt Turfwins BB’s racing career reads as follows: One win lifetime, vs. Maiden Special Weight’s in his 6 races, 82 for a career high speed rating, has never even sniffed an in the money finish in 2 route races, along with 2 badly fading efforts in his last 2 starts, both races were Owner Restricted Stakes against much lesser foes than today. The mountain trainer Turfwins 3 year old colt, TurfwinsBB would have to climb to even rate a 2nd or 3rd place finish here would be truly incredible. Turfwins is a brave man to enter TurfwinsBB here, but if I ever saw a colt that is begging for and needs Allowance NW-2L competition, it’s TurfwinsBB. I’m guessing that even though I’d never seen odds as high as the 222 – 1 that TurfwinsBB was bet to last start, his odds in this race may be a fair amount higher. It’s safe to say that trainer Turfwins will be the only person collecting on his bets if his colt wins this.
# 7 LOOKS LIKE GOLD ( 12/1 ) Residence: NWRC
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Fujikiseki Dam (sire line): Damascus
Owner: scoregon3 Jockey: T Small
S48 RATING 252.8 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
COMMENT: Trainer Scoregon3’s strategy for his ultra quick 3 year old colt Looks Like Gold is very simple, break clean from the gate and run as fast and as far as you can. One look at his past performances and you quickly see that’s his most successful style. Most of Looks Likes Gold’s success, in fact all of his wins have been sprinting. Scoregon3 has entered him in 3 turf route’s, the best of which was a creditable 2nd place finish in the Grade-2 German 2000 Guineas at today’s distance of 8 furlongs. While it was a nice effort, it needs to be pointed out there were only 5 horses in the race and Looks Like Gold was collared at 6 furlongs by one of today’s opponents, Too Many Shots, who passed him fairly easily to win by 2 ¼ widening lengths.He’s speedy and will be prominent the first half of the race, it’ll be interesting to see if he actually leads early as there’s some other quality speed in the race. Even though he’s not hopelessly out classed, It’s hard to imagine he’ll hold off this classy field for the full 8 furlongs, but his speed could have a definite influence on the outcome.
# 8 SNATCH AWAY ( 22/1 ) Residence: delpenn
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Montjeu Dam (sire line): Kingmambo
Owner: super26 Jockey: J Benisz
S48 RATING 209.2 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
COMMENT: After a very good 2 year old season, Trainer Super26 mapped out an ambitious 3 year old campaign to find out just where Snatch Away stood in the 3 year old turf route division. After a nice wire to wire romp annexing the Grade-3 Jellyton Stakes, it quickly turned sour. A fading 6th in the Grade-2 Golden Rose and a dismal performance in the Grade-3 Irish 2000 Guineas, where Snatch Away never even got involved left Super26 scratching his head for answers. He inexplicably entered Snatch Away in the Grade-1 2000 Guineas at E5 and his colt responded with his best effort, battling nose to nose with Bristol Barron all the way to the stretch, he got caught in mid stretch by Bitter Lime but hung on for 2nd, earning a career high 104 speed figure. Super26 was all smiles, but those smiles soon changed to angst after Snatch Away tried 2 more Grade-1 fields in his last 2 starts, the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Jean Brat and only managed to finish ahead of 1 horse of the 26 he faced in those 2 events.This will be Snatch Away’s fourth Grade-1 event in a row, he’s speedy, as all of his wins have been wire to wire, but has really struggled to keep up if he doesn’t grab the early lead. It’s Hard to see him getting the lead here or pressing these opponents into submission. He Might need a softer spot to return to winning ways.
# 9 PIVOT MAN ( 14/1 ) Residence: Kentucky horsemen
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Majesticperfection Dam (sire line): Pivotal
Owner: cyberex Jockey: C Donahue
S48 RATING 125.2 Style: Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser / Early Speed
COMMENT: Trainer Cyberex’s 3 year old colt Pivot Man is definitely a versatile runner who seems equally at home on dirt or turf. This looked like it could be a dilemma for Cyberex, who seemed to be leaning towards dirt racing for Pivot Man. Week 5058 changed all that, in a moment of devine inspiration Cyberex made the decision that the turf needed at least 1 more try. The result was a comfortable 2 ¼ length win over 8 Open Allowance rivals in a career best 98 speed rating, followed by his last race a dandy 1 ¾ length win over 7 Conditioned Allowance NW-4x foes and another career best 105 speed rating, which sets Pivot Man up nicely for his first Graded Stake attempt. I really like horses like Pivot Man, their versatility really allows a trainer flexibility and they usually remain competitive at the higher competition levels longer that the 1 dimension runners. That being said, I’ll be cheering for Pivot Man, but I’m leaving my wallet in my pants when it comes to betting on him against these rivals.
# 10 WHEEL OF KASH ( 13/1 ) Residence: East / West Connection
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Unbridled’s Song Dam (sire line): A. P. Indy
Owner: kenneth07 Jockey: L Larson
S48 RATING 245.3 Style: Mid Pack / Pace Presser
COMMENT: After 3 consistent, but moderately successful dirt efforts, trainer Kenneth07 decided to give his colt Wheel Of Kash a go on the grass. Six wins and 2 place finishes, the wins included 2 Grade-3 Stakes victories. Later Wheel Of Kash looked ready to join the “elite” top 10 in the 3 year old turf classic division. Unfortunately Wheel Of Kash’s last 2 races didn’t produce the same type of result’s, Kenneth2 first tried to parlay the Grade-3 turf success with a rise up in class in the Grade-1, 12 furlong Japanese Derby, Wheel Of Kash stalked the leaders in 4th the opening 6 furlongs, but came up empty and slowly faded in the stretch to finish 8th of 14. In his last race, the 9 ½ furlong Brook’s Sir Turf Route, the colt pressed the pace early, but again faded to finish last in the compact field of 4, never a good sign for tackling Grade-1 company next out. Definitely capable of winning if fit and ready, last 2 races raise a red flag about current conditioning, will have plenty of quality speed to chase, but he’s a decent sleeper possibility at 13-1, if form returns.
# 11 TOO MANY SHOTS ( 8/1 ) Residence: Minnesota Downs
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Giant’s Causeway Dam (sire line): Distorted Humor
Owner: abe Jockey: P. Wright
S48 RATING 224.8 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
COMMENT: One of the more interesting runners in the field, Too Many Shots looked like he was headed for a pretty decent career as a dirt runner. But a dull effort in the Minnesota Universal Racing Club Restricted Allowance convinced trainer Abe, that a try on the turf might be just the trigger to jump start Too Many Shots to return to his winning ways. Much to his surprise and delight Too Many Shots not only improved with the surface switch, he improved a lot, winning an Open Allowance and posting a 104 speed rating, which topped his dirt best Rating of 91 by 13 points. That race inspired Abe to enter Too Many Shots in the Grade-2 German 2000 Guineas, where his pace pressing style wore down the leader and allowed Too Many Shots to post a stunning 2 ¼ length victory. Winning a Grade-2 Stake in his second turf start midway through his 3 year old season has stamped Too Many Shots as a really up and coming contender in the turf route ranks. Abe next took the final step and entered his colt in the Grade-1 Irish 2000 Guineas where he held the lead at the 6 furlong marker, but surrendered the lead to eventual winner Samuel Bennett eventually fading to a 4th place finish 4 lengths behind the winner. The race featured 10 Graded Stake winners, so it was certainly a gutty performance considering the amount of turf seasoning Too Many Shots was conceding. He tuned up for this with a conditioned Allowance win leaving him with 3 wins in 4 races on the grass. Has been really good after moving to the turf, and still has room to improve, has shown he can compete with the best. Still lacks the seasoning of some of the others but is still dangerous in this company, beware, could move forward on best effort!
# 12 HYPERSTORM ( 9/1 ) Residence: Universal Racing Club
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Bernardini Dam (sire line): Storm Cat
Owner: muninn240 Jockey: P. Harzheim
S48 RATING 282.2 Style: Mid Pack / Off Pace Closer
COMMENT: How’s this for starting your turf career? After breaking his Maiden in first asking on the dirt, trainer Muninn240 gave his colt Hyperstorm 3 tries at Conditioned Allowance races and though he managed to place 2nd twice, Muninn240 decided Hyperstorm might be better on the grass, as his pedigree suggested. For reasons known only to him, Muninn decided to enter Hyperstorm in the Grade-2, 5 furlong Flying Children Stake, after breaking dead last in a field of 6 Hyperstorm passed everyone and posted an impressive ½ length victory. To prove it wasn’t a fluke, Hyperstorm almost repeated the effort in his next start, the 8 furlong Grade-2 Grand Critter Stake, just missing victory by a nose. To try and put the cherry on the cake top, Hyperstorm made the Grade-1 Breeders Bowl Turf Juvenile his last start as a 2 year old, but his magic wore off as he trailed 12th of 14 and only managed to pass a few tired horses to finish 9th. Hyperstorm started his 3 year old season with a bang, posting back to back wins in a Conditioned NW-3L Allowance, followed by a minor Stake win at 8 ½ furlongs posting a respectable 101 speed rating. Then Muninn240 got ambitious again and entered Hyperstorm in 3 Grade-1 events in a row. He made a decent showing in the race sandwiched in the middle, the 8 furlong 2000 Guineas, finishing a fast closing 4th, only beaten 2 ¼ lengths. The other 2 race results were a disastrous 11th and 12th in 14 horse fields. His prep for this event was a Conditioned Allowance NW-3nine mo. Where he faced a short field of 5 and won producing a “sizzling” 109 speed rating. Wild card horse all the way, certainly has good turf credentials and has come a long way and has faced tough fields, 6 Grade-1 or 2 events in 9 turf starts. A very tantalizing 109 speed rating in his latest reinforces his chances. A coin flip may be the best solution on whether to include him in your betting tickets, but he’s hard to disregard.
# 13 WRITING FOR REASON ( 35/1 ) Residence: Comedy Central
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Stravinsky Dam (sire line): Capote
Owner: hareeba78 Jockey: S. L. Ledwith
S48 RATING 109.2 Style: Mid Pack Closer
COMMENT: Close examination of his 3 year old colt Writing For Reason’s past performances reveals few clues to the exact reason why Trainer Hareeba78 has entered the colt in today’s contest. My guess is that Hareeba78 is trying to figure out exactly which surface best suits Writing For Reason’s talents going forward. Most of Writing For Reason’s accomplishment’s (both wins) were on the dirt, although he did run a creditable 100 speed figure at today’s distance in his 1st turf try against Allowance NW-4L conditioned runners. He is technically still a “maiden” on the turf, with a nice 2nd place effort against Allowance NW-3L, (albeit vs. a short field) being his best turf effort to date. Has a huge “class” mountain to climb to threaten this field, a minor award would be a nice accomplishment and should help convince trainer Hareeba78 that he is best suited to turf racing
# 14 MOLDY TB ( 9/1 ) Residence: Testbarn
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Green Desert Dam (sire line): Azamour
Owner: testbarn09 Jockey: P Kinchen
S48 RATING 151.9 Style: Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser
COMMENT: Really like the mix of class moves that trainer Testbarn09 has used in moving his 3 year old son of Green Desert up the class ranks, moving him up and testing him at a higher level and then dropping Moldy TB to a conditioned level where he fits perfectly, taking full advantage of good opportunities to ensure his colt’s success. After breaking his Maiden in his 2nd career race, Testbarn09 took a shot at the Grade-2 Vintage Stakes, where he was rewarded with a nice 2nd place finish. Instead of rolling the dice and rushing Moldy TB into another Grade-2 attempt, or bumping him up to tackle Grade-1 company, Testbarn took advantage of Moldy TB’s NW-2L status and was rewarded with an easy conditioned Allowance win. This was followed by a Minor Stake test, which Moldy TB passed with flying colors, followed by another cut back to the Allowance ranks, where Moldy TB again came through easily to win his final NW eligibility. Just before his 2 year season ended, Testbarn09 gave Moldy TB another shot at Graded competition in the Grade-3 Philanthropist, it was to be the only race in Moldy TB’s 14 race career where he finished worse than 2nd, unable to hang on to a brisk pace he faded to an 8th place finish. The poor finish didn’t de-rail Testbarn09, who resumed his class up and down training style, mixing Allowance and Minor Stakes to pad Moldy TB’s winning record until he felt his colt was ready to tackle Graded Company again. Colt is usually right on the heels of the early leaders, last effort produced career best 105 speed rating and sees Moldy TB sharp and fit. Has winning ways, have some mildly tempered enthusiasm about his chances to pull off the upset today.
# 15 BRISTOL BARRON ( 9/1 ) Residence: Empire State Racing
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Pivotal Dam (sire line): Danehill
Owner: bristolred Jockey: G Arnold
S48 RATING 197.0 Style: Early Speed
COMMENT: A glance at the 8 races in his past performance quickly uncovers the fact that trainer Bristolred’s colt Bristol Barren is blessed with “blazing” early speed. He has been unchallenged for the lead through 4 furlongs in any of his 8 races (including 3 Graded Stake tries). This allows the strategy Bristolred employs with Bristol Barron simple and effective, after controlling the early pace, if Bristol Barron can relax and open up a length or better lead on the turn home, he’s awful tough to overhaul, having won all 5 races that have unfolded this way. Lightly raced but battle tested against graded competition, ultra quick from the gate. Will be extremely dangerous if he can avoid a head to head speed duel, should definitely impact the pace and the way this race ultimately is run, may not look back.
# 16 MIDDLE NAME DANGER ( 7/2 ) Residence: GR Simsters
3-Year Old Colt Sire: Redoute’s Choice Dam (sire line): Kingmambo
Owner: ladofmanor Jockey: K. Ledwith
S48 RATING 733.5 Style: Stalker / Mid Pack Closer
COMMENT: Lightly raced and still a Maiden as a 2 year old, Ladofmanor’s 3 year old colt Middle Name Danger has exploded on the scene and if he’s not the best 3 year old turf router in the Sim, he’s certainly darn close to it. I covered his last race the Grade-1 Jean Brat, where as the soft, 5 – 1 favorite he exploded around the final turn and won comfortably by over 2 lengths against a field consisting of 7 other Graded Stake winner’s and only 1 of the 13 others weren’t at least Graded Stake Placed. He’s now amassed over $1.3 Million in earnings and has notched a Grade-1 and Grade-2 win and a 2nd place Grade-1 finish in his last 3 starts, earning phenomenal speed ratings of 107, 110 and 113, the highest representing his Jean Brat figure. What I like best about Middle Name Danger though is his running style, he comfortably tracks the early speed and is usually laying only 1 to 4 lengths from the lead entering the stretch, so he doesn’t have to come flying from the clouds, he just runs by the leaders and is usually is control of the lead well before the finish line. It simple doesn’t get better than Middle Name Danger, as 8 – 8 ½ furlongs on the grass is without a doubt the best part of his game, and he makes winning look easy. Only a regression (bounce) due to the toll of 4 straight huge efforts will keep him from being a part of this race exacta.
# 17 FLINGING ARROWS ( 10/1 ) Residence: Queensland
3-Year Old Colt Sire: A. P. Arrow Dam (sire line): Alleged
Owner: lukester01 Jockey: H. Harzheim
S48 RATING 593.4 Style: Mid Pack / Off Pace Closer
COMMENT: Trainer lukester01 would be the first to admit that his prize 3 year old colt Flinging Arrows is a difficult horse to understand and certainly to handicap. “Sometimes it seems like he just wants to finish 2nd.” Flinging Arrows seems to have the classic “seconditis” syndrome. In his debut, a 5 furlong turf MSW race, Flaming Arrows looked like a budding superstar, in 9th position early in the overflow field of 20 starters, he tracked the early pace, passed 5 horses on the final turn and mowed down 2 early leaders to win going away by almost 2 lengths. That’s a lot of moves in a short distance, the kind of powerful moves that champion racehorses make. In Flinging Arrows 2nd race, his Stakes debut, he made a similar move, but came up a scant length short and had to settle for the place. In his 3rd and 4th starts, Lukester01 tried increasing the distance to give Flinging Arrows more time to unleash his move and wear the front runners down, but to lukester01’s surprise his colt adjusted and instead of a powerful sweeping move, he ran a more plodding, grinding style and finished 2nd and 3rd less than 2 lengths from victory. In his 5th start the Grade-1 Firebird Stake, Flinging Arrow again unleashed a powerful stretch drive, only to come up ¼ heartbreaking length short. Here’s where it gets weird, after another Grade-1 attempt where he again plodded his way to a 4th place finish, Lukester01 decided to kill 2 birds with 1 stone and enter Flinging Arrows in his first route an 8 furlong turf event for Conditioned Allowance NW-2L runners, where there was little doubt that his obvious class advantage would make easy work of his 6 opponents. But strange as it may seem Flinging Arrows chased the early leaders, caught them in the turn for home, but hung in mid stretch and got passed. Again beaten 2 lengths, for yet another 2nd place finish. Three more starts, and a 2nd, 4th, and 3rd place finishes later, in week 5044, in the Grade-1 French 2000 Guineas, Flinging Arrows finally unleashed another powerful stretch move and won by 1 ½ lengths going away, followed by, you guessed it another nice 2nd place effort in the Grade-2 St. James Tavern Stake. Wow, here’s something you don’t often see, a colt still eligible for Allowance NW-3L Conditions that’s earned over ¾ of a Million Dollars. Flinging Arrows has all the Graded Credentials you need to win this event but when the smoke clears, he’s only managed 2 wins in 12 starts. He’s such a hard knocking runner you really can’t count him out, not real hard to see him running 2nd or 3rd today, is it?
SELECTIONS:
HANDICAPPER: # 16 MIDDLE NAME DANGER
CLASSCAPPER: # 17 FLINGING ARROWS
HERMIT: # 12 HYPERSTORM
ANTICAPPER: # 2 BITTER LIME
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 5 CYRUS DE VIRUS