3 Year Old’s Duel In Virginia’s Colonial Derby
This year’s Colonial Derby offers a contentious race of (14) 3 year old colt’s, all 14 runners are clustered between odds of 7-1 and 17-1 indicating that all 14 entries (in the Track Handicappers opinion) have a somewhat decent chance to bag the $1 Million dollar Grade-2 event, contested on the firm Virginia turf course. The Track Handicapper’s tepid Co-favorites at 7-1 are Socko’s DAIWA EXPRESS, leaving from inside post # 2 and Lenny12’s WINDPROUD, breaking from the outermost post # 14. The field offers a good balance of speed, pace, and stretch runners in what shapes up to be a very interesting and intriguing Stake contest.
# 1 WHAT A TRICKSTER ( 14/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: pmjstable Jockey: Ma. Nay
S48 RATING 1055.7 Style: Off Pace Closer
Glancing at the Past Performance history of Trainer pmjstable’s 3-yr old colt What A Trickster reveals a well-bred talented colt, who’s been giving hard knocking Stake efforts, but just hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. He’s a real “good” news, “bad” news kind of runner, garnering 2-Grade-1 and 2-Grade-2 3rd place finishes, but for the most part passing tired runners for the minor exotic awards. He’s certainly got a Prime Turf Pedigree, Bernadini x Nijinsky II x Damascus, so he may yet prove to be a top caliber Turf Route runner.
COMMENT: Up and down efforts against Grade-1 and Grade-2 fields, experienced against this level, may jump up and surprise, high S-48 rating, decent shot for a slice at a price.
# 2 DAIWA EXPRESS ( 7/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: socko Jockey: O Ridenour
S48 RATING 598.3 Style: Off Pace Closer
Tuned up for this with a rousing stretch charging, runaway win in the $50,000 ( 9 ) furlong St. Bob the Cob Turf Route just last week on the firm Michigan Turf Course. In that race, Daiwa Express, earned his lifetime best Speed Rating of 108 while cruising to the 1 ¼ length victory. He’d already won a pair of Grade-2 turf routes as a 2-year, but the St. Bob the Cob was his first Stake win in 6 tries as a 3 year old. It will be interesting to see what effect running back to back turf routes will have on his performance this week.
COMMENT: Classy colt has run well against this class level, fear is that he may bounce off that last “big” effort with just a week’s rest, but if he doesn’t will be hard charging late.
# 3 JIVE TALKING ( 17/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: super30 Jockey: B Jenkins
S48 RATING 217.2 Style: Mid Pack Stalk / Early Speed
Trainer Super30 has done a nice job of being patient and slowly working his colt Jive Talking up to the Graded Stakes Level, and if he can take another step forward from his latest effort, a spirited 2nd place finish in the Grade-3 Virginia Turf Cup, Super30 may be rewarded with a picture in the Winners Circle. Jive Talking has a nice versatile racing style, with enough speed to challenge for the lead if the pace isn’t too brisk, but also he’s shown he can be taken back and rally, like he did in the Virginia Cup effort.
COMMENT: Long shot has a chance on his best, but probably a bit too ambitious with these.
# 4 MAUI DUBAWI ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: assault111 Jockey: K Laser
S48 RATING 349.7 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Despite taking 4 races to break his maiden and another 3 races to crack the ALW NW-2L condition. Once Assault111’s 3 year old colt Maui Dubwai started his Stake’s racing career, it was a completely different story, in his 2nd Stake effort, Maui Dubwai led all the way to mid stretch before giving up the lead, hanging on for a well deserved placing. Two races later he use his Early stalking style to run down the leaders in the $60,000 St. Obliging Zgreat Turf Route to earn his 1st Stake victory. He then parlayed that win and stepped up to win the Grade-3 Virginia Turf Cup, leading every step of the way, setting the table for today’s event.
COMMENT: Speedster will be running with the front pack early, riding a 3 race win streak and nice odds, wouldn’t be a big surprise if he does well.
# 5 CRYIN AGAIN ( 8/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: skunkwork2 Jockey: T Mudgett
S48 RATING 407.3 Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
It’s hard to not to really appreciate the efficient step ladder training approach that Trainer Skunkwork2 has used to nurture his 3 yr. old colt Cryin Again. After each success, he’s moved Cryin Again, 2 steps up the Class Ladder. After that effort he cut’s Cryin Again back to a slightly higher Class Level then he was previously successful at and Cryin Again has responded with a “big” effort each time. This race is no exception, after a hard fought Grade-3 win in the $150,000 Force Stakes, where he caught the leaders just before the wire, followed by a move up in class and a very respectable 3rd place effort in the Grade-1 Derby de English, Skunkwork2 has now cut Cryin Again back a level, very professional training moves… must respect his chances here!
COMMENT: Like the class cutback move, running style sets up nicely for him. Should be able to lay mid pack with these, he’ll be looming bold entering the stretch, if he fires, has a really good chance to join Grade-2 winner’s circle.
# 6 ROGUE OPERATIVE ( 11/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: marmac Jockey: J Moreno
S48 RATING 295.6 Style: Off Pace Closer
To say the least Trainer Marmac has taken a non-traditional route with his 3 year old colt Rogue Operative, having mostly been running dirt races of varying distances 4.5 furlongs to 12 furlongs, with varying degrees of success, a thrilling stretch charging victory in the 3rd Annual URC Derby, followed by an uninspired 8th place finish in the Belmont Leg of the Series. Rogue Operative has tried the turf 3 times, with pretty decent success, earning a Stakes Victory in the $70,000 8.5 furlong Zig Zag Connection Turf Special in his last turf effort in March. Hasn’t raced against this class, but he’s flashed some interesting turf potential.
COMMENT: Interesting colt is a wild card in here, hasn’t run on the turf lately or ever against this class of turf runner’s, tall order to finish well against this field.
# 7 ONESWINGOFTHEBAT ( 10/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: turffever3 Jockey: F Martin
S48 RATING 209.7 Style: Off Pace Closer
Despite winning the 8 furlong Grade-3 Moussac Stake, on June 9th and recording an impressive 109 Speed Rating in the process, questions abound for Trainer Turffever’s talented 3 year old colt Oneswingofthebat. Distance is the first that needs to be answered, will he be able to handle the 10 furlongs, in his only effort beyond a mile, just ( 2 ) weeks ago, the 12 furlong Grade-1 Irish Derby, he hardly lifted his legs and jockey C McPherson decided to pull him up in the stretch. Granted that was a really tough field and distance for your first crack at the Classic’s, but it’s really hard to generate a lot of enthusiasm here 2 weeks later, off that effort.
COMMENT: A repeat of his Grade-3 Moussac effort has him flying in the stretch and contending, don’t like the total collapse just 2 weeks ago though, possible on his best effort, if he’s fit, will be passing tired horses late at the very least.
# 8 HOOKED ( 8/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: deyoto4 Jockey: A Brandon
S48 RATING 159.9 Style: Mid Pack Stalker
This son of Green Desert x High Chaparral has a nice versatile running style, he can stalk the lead and/or even sit mid pack and bid his time with a stretch run. He looks a bit overmatched class / earnings wise here, but Trainer Deyoto4’s colt Hooked has never been out of the money, and seems to really thrive on the 9 thru 11 furlong distance races. He also really impressed in his last race, his first against Graded Company, with a steady improving effort to earn 2nd place and a stimulating 107 Speed Figure in the process, a definite must include on your Exotic Betting tickets.
COMMENT: Hard to leave this colt off your exotic tickets, ultra consistent, should be in the thick of it on the turn for home. Good possibility for a slice of this purse.
# 9 PORTLANDIA ( 11/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: newastin3 Jockey: R Mills
S48 RATING 205.4 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Despite being unraced as a 2 year old, Trainer Newastin3’s 3 year old colt Portlandia has accomplished quite a bit and has thrown several hints that he’s on the way to a fabulous Turf Routing career. He’s got a front running style, but has shown he certainly doesn’t need to lead to get the job done, as evidenced by his impressive Stalking win last time out in the Grade-3 Oppenheimer Reunion. Posting a creditable 105 Speed Rating and stamping him as a definite force to reckoned with today. Most importantly, especially for a front runner, Portlindia has shown the ability to easily handle the 10 furlong distance, notching a pair of smashing 11 furlong turf victories in his last 3 starts.
COMMENT: Speedy colt has the speed and stamina to make it 2 Graded Stake wins in a row, really like his chances here, threat to win it all.
# 10 MTK ALCHEMIST ( 17/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: mtk76hold Jockey: O Shinkle
S48 RATING 107.7 Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
In what has to be labeled an extremely ambitious, daunting challenge. Trainer Mtk76hold has decided to roll the dice with his 3 year old colt Mtk Alchemist. Coming off a nice stretch rallying victory in the 8.5 furlong, $20,000 Band Buda’s Stake, his colt’s 1st try on the grass, Mtk Alchemist appears to be a colt on the “rise”, not meaning to temper the enthusiasm, but it needs to be pointed out that he beat a “short” field of 3 other runners whose combined earnings were approx. $110,000. Not even close to the Graded competition he’s going to meet today in the Colonial Derby. He appears to run his best races between 7 and 8.5 furlongs so the added distance may also hinder his chances.
COMMENT: Interesting, but inexperienced colt appears over matched, needs to overcome both class and distance hurdles.
# 11 WEEKEND ROMANCE ( 12/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: chloedawg Jockey: S. Dawsey
S48 RATING 215.7 Style: Off Pace Closer
Although Lightly raced, Weekend Romance definitely looks to be on the fast track to becoming a Top Contender in the Classic Turf distance ranks. Trainer Chloedawg has shown patience with his talented 3 year old colt Weekend Romance, carefully spacing his races and steadily moving him up the “class” ladder. Broke his Maiden and Alw nw-2L conditions on the “tough” New Your circuit, then Weekend Romance challenged and won the Grade-3 $150,000 Crown Roys Stake in Kentucky to take an impressive 3 race win streak, into the Grade-1 10 furlong Queen’s Dish on the Ontario grass. Even though Weekend Romance didn’t win, he ran a creditable 4th and was still gaining at the wire. Has a chance today if he moves forward at all.
COMMENT: Talented lightly raced colt, lacks seasoning, but hard to totally ignore. Even though he’s not my selection, it wouldn’t surprise me greatly to see him come through with a real good effort at good odds.
# 12 AUTHORING BALLET ( 10/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: stcmead Jockey: L. Creek
S48 RATING 444.3 Style: Mid Pack Stalk / Pace Presser / Early Speed
Trainer Stcmead’s talented 3 year old colt Authoring Ballet appeared to have a Grade-1 victory in his grasp, in last month’s Queen Dish, he made a bold move entering the stretch to grab the lead with ( 1 ) furlong to go, but couldn’t resist the challenge of the well regarded Rocking The House (earner of $850,000), in a race filled with Graded Stake winners. He held on tenaciously for a game 2nd place finish at 8.5 – 1 odds. With that stellar showing against a star studded field, I have to believe sets up Authoring Ballet very nicely in this event and he’s definitely one to watch and is a must on all tickets at the generous odds of 10-1.
COMMENT: Do not ignore here, versatile running style fits perfectly, has really been on a fast track to turf stardom and has beaten similar, definite serious contender at generous odds.
# 13 FORBES FIELD ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: futurestar Jockey: C. Knights
S48 RATING 142.1 Style: Early Speed
Trainer Futurestar has carefully plotted out the schedule of his well bred 3 year old colt Forbes Field, sired by Dynaformer x Sadler’s Wells. While many in this field have taken the fast track and tested their colts in Stakes and Graded Company early on, Futurestar has gone the long, patient route, preferring instead to let Forbes Field climb his way one step at a time through the Conditioned Allowance ranks, where he’s accredited himself well on both Turf and Dirt. His last effort, his 1st try against Stake Company in the Grade-2 $300,000 Seventh King Eddie Stake, wasn’t too bad, despite not being able to wrestle the lead away from the speedy Triage At Dawn, Forbes Field held on determinedly and managed to salvage the Show spot.
COMMENT: Going to be part of the early leaders, and with a moderate pace, may hold on for a slice of this purse. Going to be hard pressed early from classy runners though.
# 14 WINDPROUD ( 7/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: lenny2 Jockey: D. Sundwall
S48 RATING 341.5 Style: Stalker / Pace Presser
Trainer Lenny2’s 3 year old colt Windproud is listed as co-favorite at the very generous odds of 7-1. While he’s certainly well bred (Sea The Stars x Giant’s Causeway) for the turf, and has shown flashes of potential in his past performances. However, his actual race record is somewhat spotty, to accord co-favoritism here. Windproud has won 3 of his 10 starts with 2 of them being at 6 and 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt. His lone turf try was his last outing in the Grade-2 Jefferson Davis at 9 furlongs, in that race, Windproud appeared to pull away to a commanding 2 length lead turning home in the stretch, but was obviously gassed in the final 50 yards and could only hang on for 3rd place. The field was talented and the effort was very good, but this is also a talented field and he’s adding an extra furlong.
COMMENT: Wild card horse, not much turf experience and distance may be an issue. Could move forward from that decent initial turf effort. Should be prominent with the leaders early.
SELECTIONS:
HANDICAPPER: # 5 CRYIN AGAIN
CLASSCAPPER: # 12 AUTHORING BALLET
HERMIT: # 9 PORTLANDIA
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 1 WHAT A TRICKSTER