Full Field To Vie In Grade-1 Jean Brat
Welcome to “sunny” France, where the temperature is a pleasant 74 degrees. Today’s feature The Jean Brat Grade-1 event will be contested at 1 Mile, on the Turf Course which is beautifully trimmed and playing firm. Today’s feature event will offer Punters and Fans a nicely balanced full field of (14) 3-year olds featuring a good mix of “precocious” speedsters, “hot” and “fit” angle horses, “classy” closers and even a speedy filly, which should offer even the most discriminating handicappers something that will “pique” their betting interest. Ladofmanor’s colt “MIDDLE NAME DANGER” was named the moderate 5-1 favorite according to the track handicapper, but the fact that 7 of the 14 horses are morning odds listed between 5-1 and 9-1really highlights the fact of what a wide open, competitive event the Jean Brat is.
# 1 SNATCH AWAY ( 22/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: super26 Jockey: W. Moss
S48 RATING 520.8 Style: Early Speed
Snatch Away’s last 4 races, all Graded tries are a “mixed” bag, he bounced against a tough Grade-1 field in his last try in the Irish 2000 Guineas, which was preceded by a very game effort against a similar Grade-1 field the E-5 2000 Guineas, where Snatch Away made a bold move at the head of the lane to grab the lead and grudgingly gave way to finish 2nd beaten less than 2 lengths at similar 22-1 odds and a career best 104 spd rate
COMMENT: inconsistent but dangerous, good possibility for a minor piece of purse.
# 2 WINE ARTIE ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Filly
Owner: thereason Jockey: D. Owens
S48 RATING 326.9 Style: Off Pace Closer
Trainer thereason has decided to take a shot at the boys, while his filly’s hot and fit, she’s coming off a winning Grade-3 effort against her own sex at 8 panels, on the turf, while producing a career best 99 spd rate. While there’s no doubt she’s a talented little filly, the problem here is her best efforts come while she trails and blasts thru the stretch, gonna be asking a lot to run down the 10 – 13 similarly talented colts that will be looming in front of her as they turn home.
COMMENT: Needs a “very” Hot early pace to grab any share of this purse.
# 3 KATSURAHAMA BEACH ( 14/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: femcourt Jockey: R. Wilkinsonboro
S48 RATING 584.0 Style: Off Pace Closer
I’m willing to throw out his last race, interestingly after 2 really good fast closing efforts, winning the Grade-3 Philanthropist and a very respectable 3rd place finish in the Grade-2 Fainting Goat Nightmare. Katsurahama Beach pressed the pace in the Grade-3 Moussac and predictably slowly faded back to 7th , beaten 6 lengths. On the surface it looks bad, but in retrospect, given the 19 week lay-off that preceded the Moussac, I’m willing to concede the effort as a good workout (tightener) for today’s targeted Grade-1 effort.
COMMENT: Needs a Hot early pace and a bit of racing luck, but this horse is a legitimate threat at 14-1
# 4 DREAMING OF DEATH ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: yunkai Jockey: J. Kemp
S48 RATING 198.1 Style: Mid-Pack Closer
Here’s the “HOT” horse that “angle” handicappers will definitely target. He’s won 5 of his last 6 and also nailed his career best 108 spd figure in his last start. Obviously trainer yunkai has decided to take his first shot at a graded event while Dreaming Of Death is at the peak of his game. It’s a very ambitious spot for a Colt with 1 Stake win to his credit, but win or lose, it’s probably a good time to see where this colt stands against this level.
COMMENT: Tough spot, will need fitness to overcome steep class hike.
# 5 Bridge Of Skulls ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: lenny26 Jockey: S. Dunlap
S48 RATING 295.7 Style: Pace Presser
It’s going to be awful difficult to leave this ultra-consistent colt off your exotic tickets. He really hasn’t done anything wrong in his entire 9 race career, Bridge of Skulls moved up to challenge Graded Stakes company in his last race and even though he suffered his worst career defeat, he only lost by 3 ½ lengths and produced a nice 105 spd rating. His pace pressing style should set up nicely if the early dual is brisk but not suicidal.
COMMENT: Hard to not like this colt, must include on exotic tickets, chance to win it all
# 6 Moonlight Mile ( 13/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: super7 Jockey: L Woodard
S48 RATING 219.1 Style: Mid-Pack Closer
1 of 3 in the money in Grade-3 Stake efforts, a competitive 3rd in his last race the Grade-3 Regal Hill, means he’ll definitely have to take his game up at least 2 levels to manage a similar outcome here. He usually gives a good effort and makes some sort of a competitive move in most of his races, I expect a similar effort here.
COMMENT: Not impossibly outclassed but will need his very best to get even a minor award at the wire.
# 7 LOVE SICK DRINKER ( 7/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: abc Jockey: H McLean
S48 RATING 436.1 Style: Stalker / Pace Presser
This colt certainly has a versatile racing style, he can lead, he can press and stalk and he can even lay mid pack and close. Love Sick Drinker has won a Grade-3 as a mid pack closer, but that was on the dirt. He’s 2 for 2 winning both of his turf events and his 107 and 103 spd ratings are his career best, so he may prove to be even better on the turf, a definite X-factor horse.
COMMENT: This Colt intrigues me a lot, well respected on the morning line, but still has a lot to prove.
# 8 SUGAR WATER CLUE ( 16/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: iant6 Jockey: D Caufield
S48 RATING 169.2 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Normally a horse that’s won 5 of 9, including a nice Stakes victory in his last race, who’s been in the money 8 of 9 lifetime, warrants an automatic inclusion in all my tickets. However based on his low S48-Rating, the amount of classy early speed in this field, and his lack of Stake experience, my gut feeling is Sugar Water Clue will be very hard pressed to accomplish a top 3 finish in this race. He’s a really nice colt with some upside, but this field looks a bit beyond his abilities now.
COMMENT: Speedy runner will have plenty of early pressure with this group, tough sopt to hold together.
# 9 IMPERIAL CRISIS ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: gipper5 Jockey: J Shaver
S48 RATING 2140.7 Style: Off Pace / Mid Pack Closer
Impressive Colt has faced better competition than most here and has held his own. One of 2 Grade-1 winners in this field, also has 3 in the money Graded Stake finishes in his resume’. His best finishes were in sprints, but he’s run decently in his 3 Grade-1 8 furlong turf tries, coming off a lifetime best 105 spd rating, where he was still running and gaining on the winner at the wire bodes well here. Top S48 rating in the field, must respect.
COMMENT: Generous odds for Grade-1 tested runner, good chance to grab his 2nd Grade-1 Trophy. Must include in all tickets.
# 10 MIDDLE NAME DANGER ( 5/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: ladofmanor Jockey: R. Truitt
S48 RATING 1894.1 Style: Mid Pack Closer
Awarded favorite’s role based on his last 3 outstanding races, where he missed bagging all 3 wins by a scant ¼ length in the Irish 2000 guineas. His 3 speed ratings of 110, 107 & 106 are dynamic and better than any 3 combined efforts of his competitors, so a repeat of those numbers without a doubt puts him in the top-3 mix at the wire here. About the only thing that worries me is the fact this is his 5th race with 3 week spacing and all these top efforts have to take a toll at some point, so a bounce is a possibility. High S48 Rating, the one to beat.
COMMENT: Nice odds for a proven favorite, must respect only Millionaire earner’s chances here.
# 11 RO DONO ( 9/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: dyoto Jockey: K Champ
S48 RATING 631.4 Style: Early Speed
Speedy runner will be a prominent part of the front end dual for early control of the race. Though he hasn’t won a Graded Stake yet, Ro Dono has acquitted himself well and has earned a 2nd, 3rd and 2 4th place finishes in his 4 Graded efforts. Steadily improving speed figs indicate, he’s priming for the next class level up and it’s only a matter of when that 1st Graded win will come.
COMMENT: Speedy runner will be prominent early, doesn’t usually collapse and may have enough in the tank to at least bag a top-3 showing.
# 12 MR FUJI ( 14/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: apindy001 Jockey: R Kraft
S48 RATING 443.9 Style: Mid Pack Closer
His last 4 races, all Graded efforts, have been a real “mixed” bag as far as results go. 2 miserable outcomes and 2 excellent outcomes. The best showing without a doubt was his Grade-3 Goodyear Stakes win in week 5037, he cruised in Mid Pack until turning home, set dead aim on the leader and walked right in the stretch, by to win by 2 ½ lengths in an impressive career best 105 spd rate. A repeat of that effort puts him with the top group hitting the wire in this race.
COMMENT: Even though he’s inconsistent and raising the competition bar, it wouldn’t totally surprise me to see him grinding down the early leaders and grabbing the back-end of a trifecta or even an exacta finish.
# 13 SAMUEL BENNETT ( 7/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: skunkbred2 Jockey: J Stivers
S48 RATING 844.0 Style: Early Speed / Pace Presser
Samuel has really taken his game to a whole new level as a 3-year old, winner of 4 of his last 5, his last being the best, notching his 1st Grade-1 Stake win earning a personal best 108 speed rating and beating several of his key rivals in that event. He has a really nice blend of tactical early speed that he uses to his best advantage. If your too slow, he can zip by you early and never look back, but if your blazing fast he can lay off and stalk a length or 2 back and wait until you tire and inherit the lead and never look back. He’s also not a faint hearted sprinter as he showed wiring the field at 9 furlongs in the Hawk’s Heir Stake in week 5002. His races have been nicely spaced 4-6 weeks apart so burnout shouldn’t be an issue.
COMMENT: Hard to find a fault in his game, Great Jockey and should be prominent from the gate. At 7-1, he’s got really good wager value.
# 14 GALICIO ( 14/1 ) 3-yr Colt
Owner: bestobene2 Jockey: R Stevenson
S48 RATING 555.7 Style: Off Pace Closer
Stuck outside with very little early speed, it’s hard to vision Galico doing much more than passing the tired runners late. He’s tried Grade-1 competition his last 2 starts and was never prominent in either race, but he wasn’t a total embarrassment either, both were rather flat tries where he kind of raced evenly. He did have a near miss in week 4820 as a 2-year old in the Bedford Stakes, where he cruised along near the back of the pack and “flew” in the stretch to grab 2nd and just missed winning by a head. I would suspect that’s his best option here.
COMMENT: Needs a “very” Hot early pace to grab any share of this purse.
SELECTIONS:
HANDICAPPER: # 10 MIDDLE NAME DANGER
CLASSCAPPER: # 9 IMPERIAL CRISIS
HERMIT: # 13 SAMUEL BENNETT
LONGSHOT CHARLIE: # 1 SNATCH AWAY