12 to tackle The Strand Broke 2012
Hello all and welcome to cold Victoria. It is winter here now but the big races must go on, and The Strand Broke sure is a big race. What makes this race so awesome is that it is open to any 3 year old and older horses which means that you could get a 12 year old horse winning this race. This is only the fourth running of the race, but expect a lot more exciting Strand Brokes in the future. The first winner of this race was PERFECT DRAGON(KY) who was fourth favourite but took the lead and never looked back. What was interesting in that race was the last place getter SYSTEM FAILURE who lived up to his name at $6,805.30 odds. In 2010 it was TATSU(KY) who took out the race in a quality field. He also took the lead and was never caught. In 2011 TATSU(KY) came back to defend his title and was once again successful. Once again he took the lead and they just couldn’t catch him. So looking at the previous winners it looks like front runners have the advantage. PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG), GRAN SPECIAL(JPN), BLAZING LEGACY(KY), AUTHOR OF PAIN(GB), PUT ON A SHOW(NZ), BACKSTREET BRAWLER(KY) all love to lead and should be suited if history is a guide, but don’t discount the others who I’m sure could do it from the middle or back. This year we have 12 quality runners with each a good reason they could win, but also a reason they could lose. No matter what we are in for a great day of racing and with $800k up for grabs this is the biggest race of the day at Victoria. The sun looks to come out after the fog clears which is sure to attract a big crowd, with many probably backing the #1 ranked favourite BATTLE DREAM(GB).
Race: The Strand Broke (4ft Running)
Class: Grade I (Group1)
Distance: Seven furlongs (1400m)
Track Condition: Firm Turf
Prize Money: $800,000
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
PREVIOUS WINNERS AND LEAD UP RACES.
2009: PERFECT DRAGON(KY) 1st-11 sp112 $6.60 reacher R Bailey barrier9
Race prior to Strand Broke: 1st-11 The All Ages-G2 1400m sp115 $6.30 reacher G Stepnoski
2010: TATSU(KY) 1st-13 sp116 $ 6.30 given D Evans barrier6
Race prior to Strand Broke: 2nd-4 The Palace Stakes-Stk 1000m sp101 $0.10 given A Craig
2011: TATSU(KY) 1st-11 sp114 $5.50 given D Evans barrier4
Race prior to Strand Broke: 1st-14 The French Toast Sprint-G2 1400m sp115 $7.30 given K French
AND NOW FOR THIS YEARS FIELD.
PP#1 141481 BACKSTREET BRAWLER(KY) biggerjet S Barton $9
4yo Light Grey Colt by TAPIT x DISTORTED HUMOR
Running Style: From the front or mid-field
Starts: 19:10-3-4
Money: $889,688
Dist Starts: 4:4-0-0
Class Starts: First Start
Track Starts: First Start
Ranking: 18
Average speed by last 5 starts: 105
Best Speed: 114 (1400m STKS)
Last 5 Starts: 31121
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This four year old colt looks well placed here, cause he beat a few of these last start out in the G2-The All Ages 1400m. This will be his first start at the track and class, but has accepted every challenge his connections have thrown at him. He is yet to lose a race at this distance, and is yet to miss a placing at sprint races. Has only once missed the money in all his starts and that was in the G2-Club Stakes 1700m as a 2 year old. Look for him to put in a big run and an inform horse is always got to be considered a danger.
PP#2 64824 AUTHOR OF PAIN(GB) canceled2 R Bailey $7
4yo Brown Colt by AUTHORIZED x DEPUTY MINISTER
Running Style: From the front
Starts: 13:6-2-1
Money: $177,195
Dist Starts: 4:0-0-1
Class Starts: First Start
Track Starts: 1:1-0-0
Ranking: 135
Average speed by last 5 starts: 109
Best Speed: 118 (1500m STKS)
Last 5 Starts: 31451
Days Since Last Raced: 35 days
This four year old colt is lightly raced and is stepping up to GRP1 level for the first time. 3 of his 6 wins have been at stakes company, and I guess you have to put him in a race like this after his last run performance. His last start he won the St-Insenced Turf Sprint 1500m in Italy with a speed figure of 118. Has only placed once from 4 start at the distance, but has won his only start at this track.If he can produce a good speed figure today, he must be considered an each-way chance.
PP#3 89254 BRAVE PASSION(KY) pm B Ridgle $20
5yo Chestnut Horse by FORESTRY x GONE WEST
Running Style: From the back or mid-field
Starts: 28:6-5-6
Money: $291,780
Dist Starts: 10:3-2-3
Class Starts: 1:0-0-0
Track Starts: 1:0-0-0
Ranking: 211
Average speed by last 5 starts: 97
Best Speed: 109 (1400m GRP3)
Last 5 Starts: s0383
Days Since Last Raced: 35 days
This five year old horse hasn’t raced in a group race for almost a year. Has been racing in allowance and stakes races for only a few placings, but did have a spell 4 starts back so might be back on the way up. Goes well at the distance but has had just the one start at the class and that was in the G1-Penn Dash 1400m where he faded bad to finish 11th. His only start at the track was in the G2-Because I Said So Stakes 1200m where he was a bit disappointing in finishing fourth. He is the longshot here and got to agree with the bookies.
PP#4 179590 PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG) jetersring R Kowalkowski $7
5yo Chestnut Horse by MEDICEAN (GB) x DANEHILL DANCER (IRE)
Running Style: From the front or behind the leaders
Starts: 30:12-5-3
Money: $4,399,500
Dist Starts: 3:2-0-0
Class Starts: 8:3-3-0
Track Starts: 5:4-0-0
Ranking: 16
Average speed by last 5 starts: 108
Best Speed: 113 (1200m GRP1)
Last 5 Starts: 31114
Days Since Last Raced: 42 days
Would definitely love to have a horse like him in my stable, just look at how much he has won. Winner of the G2-The Champagne Mile 1600m, G1-The Golden Shoe 1200m, St-The SHILLELAGH(FR) Special 1400m, and G1-New Market Handicap 1200m which are 4 of his 5 wins at this track so you can definitely say he loves this track. Has the experience and loves to run at this distance and class. Looking at everything he has done you must consider him a big big shot here, and is coming off a good 42 day break.
PP#5 83249 PUT ON A SHOW(NZ) redhill5 G Radcliff $10
5yo Chestnut Horse by ZABEEL(NZ) x ROBERTO
Running Style: From the front or behind the leaders
Starts: 22:6-7-2
Money: $224,337
Dist Starts: 2:1-1-0
Class Starts: First Start
Track Starts: 2:1-0-0
Ranking: 180
Average speed by last 5 starts: 105
Best Speed: 111 (1400m GRP2)
Last 5 Starts: 32112
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This one had his best start last run in the G2-Rising Sun Spring Cup 1400m at Japan where he finished second. This one has only started racing in sprint races this year all his previous starts were at routes. Looks to have adapted to sprints as his last 4 starts were at sprints 2 wins and 2 seconds. Has track experience with 1 win from his 2 starts, but this will be the first time he is racing in GRP1 company. He is in form and the only question will be how he handles the step up in class, but at 10/1 take him at your own risk.
PP#6 10643 GLOBAL DIPLOMAT(GER) coolk F Moon $8
4yo Brown Colt by MONSUN(GER) x MISWAKI
Running Style: From the back
Starts: 19:10-3-1
Money: $296,590
Dist Starts: 3:2-0-0
Class Starts: First Start
Track Starts: First Start
Ranking: 95
Average speed by last 5 starts: 107
Best Speed: 113 (1400m STKS)
Last 5 Starts: 12128
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This four year old colt is having his first start at the track, and is also stepping up to GRP1 class for the first time. Has been racing well in allowance and stakes races, but finished eighth in the G2-Rising Sun Spring Cup 1400m last start which is a bit of a disappointment. Has won 2 of his 3 starts at the distance so obviously prefers to run in sprint races. I think this one is a place chance only.
PP#7 161522 OOEY GOOEY BARB(IRE) psyduck131 D Dowell $10
6yo Chestnut Horse by STRATEGIC PRINCE x RED RANSOM
Running Style: From the back
Starts: 20:7-3-2
Money: $626,176
Dist Starts: 2:0-1-0
Class Starts: 2:0-1-0
Track Starts: 2:0-1-1
Ranking: 13
Average speed by last 5 starts: 105
Best Speed: 113 (1500m O-Allow)
Last 5 Starts: 10262
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This six year old horse might be older than a few of these, but he is still running well. Hasn’t won at this class, but is yet to miss a placing at the track from 2 starts. Did really well to finish second in the G1-New Market Handicap 1200m at this track 3 starts back and his next 2 starts were also good. All his stats point to that he can’t win this and I would have to agree, but on the other hand he’s not a bad place chance at 10/1 odds.
PP#8 147395 BLAZING LEGACY(KY) jhenry B Euler $8
4yo Light Grey Colt by DYNAFORMER x UNBRIDLED’S SONG
Running Style: From the front or behind the pace
Starts: 20:6-5-3
Money: $565,535
Dist Starts: 5:2-1-1
Class Starts: 1:0-0-0
Track Starts: 1:0-1-0
Ranking: 49
Average speed by last 5 starts: 109
Best Speed: 113 (1400m GRP2)
Last 5 Starts: 21421
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This horse has only recently taken to this distance with 4 of his last 5 starts been at this distance. His only start at GRP1 level was in the G1-The SABALOU SPECIAL 1400m at Queensland where he couldn’t hold them back and faded in the straight to finish fourth. At his only start at this track he was very unlucky not to win the St-Danefjord Turf Challenge 1100m where he lost by half a length. He won’t win this but another you have to take at your own risk.
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB) tigereyes D Evans $4.5
4yo Brown Colt by DANSILI (GB) x DIESIS(GB)
Running Style: From the back or mid-field
Starts: 18:8-7-0
Money: $3,074,675
Dist Starts: 8:4-2-0
Class Starts: 4:2-2-0
Track Starts: 1:1-0-0
Ranking: 1
Average speed by last 5 starts: 113
Best Speed: 117 (1200m GRP1)
Last 5 Starts: 12124
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
Well what can I say about this one that you probably can’t see for yourself. He is the best ranked in his division on the sprints, and goes well at this distance. His starts at the class can’t be questioned either cause he is yet to finish worse than second from 4 starts. Has the 1 start at the track where he won his second race as a 2yo in a full field. Wouldn’t worry too much about his last start in the G2-Rising Sun Spring Cup 1400m where he was finishing strongly but only managed to finish fourth. He is our early favourite and I think he will be very hard to beat.
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN) thylacine J Cox $7
4yo Chestnut Colt by DEEP IMPACT x DYNAFORMER
Running Style: All rounder
Starts: 22:13-3-1
Money: $2,086,270
Dist Starts: 11:6-2-1
Class Starts: 2:0-1-0
Track Starts: 3:1-1-0
Ranking: 5
Average speed by last 5 starts: 109
Best Speed: 113 (1400m STKS)
Last 5 Starts: 41217
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This one is also another very good horse, and I suppose you have to be if you’re going to be a contender in this race. Loves this distance and goes well at this track, but my only concern is that he is yet to win at this class from only the 2 starts he has had. Not really sure what happened to him last start out in the G2-The All Ages 1400m where he never looked comfortable and finished 7th after starting favourite. Hard to say what he will do, if he produces a run like last start he is no chance, but if he bounces back he could be a big chance.
PP#11 9101 BICHITO VOLADOR(IRE) bichitos J Kohlmorgen $9
6yo Brown Horse by SADLER’S WELLS x THUNDER GULCH
Running Style: Mid-field
Starts: 31:10-8-2
Money: $387,023
Dist Starts: 11:5-2-1
Class Starts: 1:0-0-0
Track Starts: 2:2-0-0
Ranking: 67
Average speed by last 5 starts: 106
Best Speed: 110 (1400m O-Allow)
Last 5 Starts: 16321
Days Since Last Raced: 49 days
This horse is a six year old and he has done quite well for his owners. This will be his second start at the class and after dropping him back to allowance company he has found form. The owners are hoping that he is better prepared here and I must agree with the owners in giving him another chance at GRP1 level. He has only 9 times failed to produce a speed figure under 100 and that usually means he is consistently running well. Likes the distance and is yet to lose a race at this track. Prehaps a place chance is the safest bet.
PP#12 111617 GRAN SPECIAL(JPN) rrlogan R Dogs $13
5yo Brown Horse by SPECIAL WEEK x EL GRAN SENOR
Running Style: From the front
Starts: 35:11-4-2
Money: $395,405
Dist Starts: 8:1-0-2
Class Starts: First Start
Track Starts: First Start
Ranking: 30
Average speed by last 5 starts: 100
Best Speed: 112 (1500m O-Allow)
Last 5 Starts: 40169
Days Since Last Raced: 28 days
This one is having his first start at Group1 level and I suppose the trainer thinks he’s got nothing to lose. His best start would have to be when he won the G2-The Challenger 1400m back in October last year. Since then he has struggled to find consistent form, and this might just be a run so that the owner can say that the horse has run in a GRP1 race. This his first start at the track and I think this one is better suited to stakes and allowance company. Hard to see him doing well here.
So there we have it, that is this years field and as you can see there are lots of choices for you to pick the winner.
TIPS:
My Tips:
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB)
PP#4 179590 PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG)
PP#1 141481 BACKSTREET BRAWLER(KY)
Tips by Odds:
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB)
PP#4 179590 PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG)
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN)
Tips by Most Wins:
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN)
PP#4 179590 PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG)
PP#12 111617 GRAN SPECIAL(JPN)
Tips by Money Earnt:
PP#4 179590 PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG)
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB)
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN)
Tips by Ranking:
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB)
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN)
PP#7 161522 OOEY GOOEY BARB(IRE)
Tips by Average Speed:
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB)
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN)
PP#2 64824 AUTHOR OF PAIN(GB)
FINAL RATINGS:
PP#9 86820 BATTLE DREAM(GB) 14 points
PP#10 96120 KALBARRI(JPN) 9 points
PP#4 179590 PREPOSTERAGEOUS(ENG) 9 points
PP#2 64824 AUTHOR OF PAIN(GB) 1 point
PP#1 141481 BACKSTREET BRAWLER(KY) 1 point
PP#7 161522 OOEY GOOEY BARB(IRE) 1 point
PP#12 111617 GRAN SPECIAL(JPN) 1 point
There we have it. Good luck to all punters, bookies, owners, jockeys, and the superstars the horses.
Sorry to all the owners if I submit this article before I got your comments via a message.