Miss Timoshenko Favored In Irish 1000 Guineas
A truly terrific racing card awaits the fans at Ireland’s top racecourse this Saturday, and a huge throng of sports-crazed Irish folks is expected to forget about Gaelic football, soccer, rugby, hurling and even golf and boxing for a day and fill the grandstand to capacity, maybe even breaking attendance records for Irish Guineas Day.
Why this year, you ask? It’s a great card every year… What makes this one special?
The amazing superfilly MISS TIMOSHENKO, one of the most talked-about runners in the Sim, has made her way to the Emerald Isle to compete in the Grade 1 Irish 1000 Guineas! Winner of six graded stakes races thus far in her short career, she has returned to top form after a trio of poor performances provided a rough beginning to her 2012 campaign, and it seems everyone wants to get a glimpse of her stretch-charging style.
Of course, no matter how famous or good the fily is, she can’t have a race without competition. It turns out there is plenty of that to be had. A total of twelve talented 3yo fillies are entered, and while “Miss T” is the most-established star, a number of these fillies appear to have the ability to threaten and maybe even upset the favorite.
On the rail is OPPOSITE POLARITY, a daughter of the lightly-used Kentucky sire Desert Party. This bcummings-trained filly has shown flashes of ability, but has been unable to pull of a stakes win. She did lead ’til late stretch in the Grade 3 Miss Brillo at 9 furlongs last October, so maybe she can do some damage with her very best effort. She has an allowance win here at Ireland, but gets a low-rated jockey and 12/1 odds here.
WASTING TIME goes off at 10/1 for liddles21. This Stormy Atlantic filly is very sharp right now, but is trying a whole new level of racing in this spot. The jockey draw didn’t exactly come out in her favor, and she will need to race her eyeballs out to make much damage here.
The longest price on the board at 14/1, CROMARTY races under the silks of mclevystud. The Lonhro filly has run in eight stakes races and won two, but both wins were in very small fields of nowhere near the ability of the top ones here. This one will also need to have a career-best day to get much done here; she did manage to land a solid rider for today’s trip.
STREET PRINCESS started her career on the dirt, and the Street Cry filly ran decently. However, when alysheba11 decided to see how his filly dealt with the sod, she became a whole new racehorse. She’s won 4 of 5 on the green stuff, with a graded win. Her only turf failure came at 9 furlongs, and she just might have the stuff to pull off an 8/1 upset. The 8 furlongs does appear to be right at the top edge of her distance ability, so she’ll have to be on her game. A strong 16% rider is aboard.
Last time out, METEORIC BUDA was the final victim of MISS TIMOSHENKO‘s closing rush, finishing four lengths back in 2nd in the “other” Grade 1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. New course, higher-rated rider, and she tries the big fave again here. She has a trio of graded-stakes win to her credit and the vicki trainee gets 6/1 odds for this.
EXCEPTIONALISM is another who started his career on the dirt. After a pair of so-so tries there, sicko1 moved his Tapit filly to the sod, and she became… Well, exceptional. Four solid allowance runs were followed by her stakes debut in the Grade 3 The Grotto where she ran an impressive 3rd just two lengths behind today’s favorite. She gets 10/1 odds and has a fairly good veteran rider aboard for this chance, where only a little improvement could have her right in the hunt.
FORMLEE has run her last seven on the turf, with five wins. The Unbridled’s Song filly fared pretty well in her last, her only graded try on the turf. Trainer stargazer has landed a solid rider for this try, and has high hopes that his filly can be as good as her B-rated dam, a winner of $1.6 million Sim dollars. She’s 10/1 and not without a shot at doing some damage here.
LAW OF SUCCESS has won 3 of 5 on the turf, all in Ireland. Trained by mtk76hold, the Cape Cross filly dazzled the crowd last time out with a snappy wire-to-wire win in the Grade 3 Irish 1000 Guineas Trial, and he retains the same rider for this; however, it looks like the early-pace contest will be more contentious here. The home crowd will get nice 9/1 odds.
The favored (7/2) MISS TIMOSHENKO is undefeated at today’s flat-mile distance and should be flying in the stretch. The only Sim runner to capture the Horse Of The Year trophy as a 2yo, the manoroflad trainee has been doing her best to erase the memory of her early-2012 3-race “bad patch” by being dominant again at her favored 8-furlong distance in her last pair, both graded wins over a number of the runners in here. The North Light filly has the top rider aboard, too. Despite the quality group here, this looks like it’s her race to lose.
Of course, there are some who have not faced the mighty closing rush of today’s favorite… DROP DEAD QUICK is one, for example. At 8/1, the CPU gives this Fastnet Rock filly respect and a shot at it. Once the filly finally decided she was going to be a force to be reckoned with, she began stockpiling wins, 6 in a row. In her last, she did one of the more difficult things to do; ran down a lone pacesetter to get the win. That was her stakes debut, too. This is a sizeable class hike, but it’s hard to count this one out; tenpin6 has brought this one along nicely.
LEEBAZ has a pair of wins in graded races, but both were sprints. The Zabeel filly, trained by bmr005, has a couple of 2-turners in his record, but both went very badly. Still, she has a pair of strong turf wins and also a good 2nd on dirt since those tries and may have the maturity to deal with the distance more comfortably this time. Landed a poor rider and gets 10/1 odds; maybe, but has a lot to do.
CAPTAIN DE LAGO is the least-experienced runner here, but with 4 wins in 4 starts, the sky is the limit for this safrace3-trained filly. She is the only stakes winner in the Sim by obscure South African sire Captain Al, but the female side on this scratch-bred filly is chock-full of top names. In addition to making her graded-stakes debut, she is also trying two-turning for this first time. 11/1 on an undefeated runner is real nice, but she has a lot to prove. She landed a decent journeyman rider for the trip.
Okay, time to guess the winner, er, “handicap” this thing…
I’m gonna get crazy and pick DROP DEAD QUICK to shock the Sim world and pull the upset.
MISS TIMOSHENKO will have a lot to say about this one and could/should win… I’m just gonna be obstinate and play the upset. I’d sure box the exacta, though…
I’m also gonna guess that LAW OF SUCCESS survives the pace scenario and has enough to get the show dough over METEORIC BUDA.
Good luck to all!