Cavalcade Cup Mile
What a wonderful day of racing! The seventh race on the Washington card is the Cavalcade Cup Mile featuring most of the top turf milers in the NWRC. This race offers a good balance of early speed and late runners. I think this will be one of the most exciting races of the day. There are at least six horses with an outstanding chance of winning this prestigious event. Now let’s take a look at the field;
1) Bearly Limp, trained by jimmyv24 (Greg), is by Black Tie Affair(IRE) x Full Extent x Dike
This 6yo horse continues to earn checks just about every time he runs. He has earned over $340,000 in 44 races and has finished in the money his last eight consecutive races. However he hasn’t raced in a stakes since the 2004 NWRC Series. His best speed figure this year is only 103. Although Bearly Limp will be a sentimental choice for some at NWRC, he will have to return to his past form to have a shot at hitting the board.
2) Fusaichi Magpie, trained by punter59 (Gavin), is by Fusaichi Pegasus x Danzig x Seattle Slew
This nice looking 4yo colt is very lightly raced having run just 13 times. In 10 starts on the turf he has won 6 for $369,000 in earnings. Gavin has developed the son of Fusaichi Pegasus into one of the top turf milers in the sim. Fusaichi Magpie is coming off his worst performance on the grass, but looking at his previous races that one looks like throw out. What is so impressive about this colt is that he has never run a speed figure below 100 on the turf. His top speed figure for a mile is 108. This one looks like a strong contender in here.
3) Bigtate Child, trained by bigtate02 (Terrel), is by Ferdinand x Prized x Goldlust
This Grade 1 winner has faced some of the best turf horses in the sim, but he hasn’t done very well this year. This colt has not only failed to win this year, but he has only finished in the money once. This looks like an impossible task. However, he did upset a G1 last year at 76-1.
4) Three Man Colt, trained by phonetrick (Jef), is by Rahy x Unfuwain x Lyphard
Three Man Colt has won 5 times out of 15 races on the turf and earned $230,000. This colt began his career as a 3yo and achieved an amazing feat by running a 113 SP in his career debut. He is a multiple stakes winner and one mile is probably his best distance. He will be fighting for the lead out of the gate, but he will be pressed hard early. Very nice colt, but he may help set up the race for one of the closers.
5) Clever Landing, trained by murray2 (Ken), is by Smart Strike x Clever Trick x Green Desert
This 6yo has always been a solid performer in the NWRC. He has won 11 out 26 races on the turf including multiple stakes races. He will be close to the pace. However, his best game is sprinting and this will be his first start going two turns in over a year. His recent form also suggests that his best days may be behind him. Although another sentimental favorite of the NWRC, I can’t see him finishing in the money today.
6) Friendofthefamily, trained by pedroza (Todd), is by Rahy x Spinning World x Miswaki
He is a multiple stakes winner and a very consistent runner. He recently took on graded company in each of his last two starts and ran respectably finishing 3rd and 5th. Frienofthefamily is one of the closers in the field. He figures to get an honest pace to run at and should be closing furiously in the stretch. He is one of the top contenders in here.
7) Jef And His Cat, trained by derbyking9 (Jef), is by Storm Cat x Forty Niner x Danzig
Another stakes winner here. He has run some nice races, but his last start was disappointing. Before that he finished 2nd in a stakes and won two allowances. On his best day he has a shot to finish in the money.
8) Dime Sak, trained by jdawg05 (Terrel), is by Lion Cavern x Prized x Time For A Change
One of the early speed horses in the race. He has never won a race at a mile or longer. He will be in front or pressing the pace as far as he can, but it doesn’t look like he has a shot at finishing in the money.
9) A. P. Poll, trained by n2racing (Todd), is by Danzig x Forty Niner x A.P. Indy
Another turf star in the NWRC, A.P. Poll is a multiple stakes winner including the G3 Brown Fields two starts back. He figures to be well back early and flying in the stretch. This race may be too short for him, as he has done best at 9 – 10 furlongs. His recent form makes him a contender.
10) Dom Tendencies, trained by slipknot22 (Larry), is by Fantastic Light x A.P. Indy x Zafonic
This 5yo has won 10 out of 27 races and earned over $810,000. Another one of the top turf milers in the sim. He did finish behind A. P. Poll LTO in the Brown Fields. He will be close to the lead. He is one of the contenders, but will probably need his best effort to win.
11) Triestar, trained by goody5 (Dave), is by Old Trieste x Seeking The Gold x Wild Again
This 4yo filly is taking on the boys once again. She has raced in open stakes three of her last four starts with a 2nd in a G3. She is a deep closer and will definitely be last early in the race. I don’t think this is her best distance and I don’t expect her to be a factor here.
12) Skyway(IRE), trained by kaif011 (Greg), is by High Chaparral(IRE) x A.P. Indy x Fappiano
The 3yo son of High Chaparral(IRE) has been improving steadily. LTO he won an allowance race going away while posting a career best 103 SP for the 8.5f. He should continue get better, but this looks like a difficult spot for him. However, 30-1 on a horse that figures to improve is tempting.
13) Hope Im A Winner, trained by 6ward (Terrel), Halory Hunter x Northern Dancer x Venetian Jester
This 3yo colt has just 2 wins in 21 starts. An allowance race would be a more suitable spot for him. This race is just too tough.
14) Bluelight Special, trained by catdancer (Tommy), is by Broto x If This Be So x Prospector’s Gold
Yet another 3yo colt, he has won 2 out 4 races on the turf. He has improved since switching from the turf. He likes to be very close to the pace which will compromise his chances of getting to the winner’s circle today.
15) Grand Sakhee, trained by heythere (Tommy), is by Sakhee x Grand Slam x Summer Squall
Very lightly raced 3yo colt has 2 wins in just 5races. It is hard to believe that this one was in a claiming race in only his fourth start. While everything points to a possible successful future for this one, this looks like a very ambitious spot for him.
16) Ted’s Inndar(IRE), trained by refinement (Ted), is by Sinndar(IRE) x Gone West x Sharpen Up(GB)
The second filly entered in this race. She finished 3rd two back in the G1 Demona Handicap. Her best speed figure this year is a 102 and that was at 9.5f. She will need to improve dramatically to finish in the money here. This looks like a very tough assignment for her.
17) Cynicism, trained by squirrel (Tracy), is by Rahy x El Gran Senor x Bold Ruler
This 3yo is a stakes winner on the turf. However, his only win at this distance was in a maiden race. He has yet to run a 100 SP or better. He has great bloodlines and will surely develop into a real nice horse. Today’s task looks too tough.
18) Iam Dreaming, trained by dvtka1(Don), is by Sahm x Jeblar x Bassenthwaite(GB)
Another 3yo colt that likes to close from the back of the pack. He ran a 100SP two starts back while finishing 2nd in an allowance. He has yet to win a stakes race. Nice looking colt, but doubtful that he will be a factor against these.
This is going to be a great race to watch and a good one to handicap. Three Man Colt and Dom Tendencies are great horses, but I think that the presence of Clever Landing and Dime Sak should create some very fast early fractions and probably compromise there chances. There is no doubt that A.P. Poll will be flying at the finish, but I just don’t think he will be able to get there in time. Jef And His Cat is somewhat an enigma. He could finish in the money or he could finish up the track. I’m going to pass on him today. This brings me to my top three selections. I really like Fusaichi Magpie. He figures to get a perfect trip from the middle of the pack. I think he will win it in a close finish with Friendofthefamily. The latter will be closing from well behind and be right there at the finish. My longshot selection and the horse I think will get the show money is Skyway(IRE). I like his last start and think he might be developing into a very nice horse.
Good luck to all!