The Chat Pack Presents The Middle Jewel
HR-spinround Hi Jet and welcome to the 2012 Middle Jewel Chat Pack Edition
HR-jetman: Good morning Spin .. great to be here
HR-spinround We’ve got a full field of fourteen three year olds lined up
HR-spinround The Maryland course is fast
HR-spinround Why don’t we get right down to the runners
#1 Time For Buda 12/1 Topicount Stables
Pedigree – by Dansili out of the c-grade mare Time Byrd by Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat. Half sister to one stakes winner.
Major Races – Win in the Arkansas Juvenile (G-1), Placed in Sand Castle Derby (G-1)
Highest Speed – 103
HR-spinround Time For Buda did not run in the Bluegrass Derby even though he won a Lock Prep race
HR-jetman: Fantastic pedigree that looks like he would be more at home on the grass, however has run extremely well on the dirt
HR-jetman: Deep closing style that we will see is a trend in this years race.
HR-spinround I agree although I think Dansili has done very well with dirt runners in the sim
HR-jetman: Will be interesting to see what the extended break does for him
HR-spinround That I think is the big question. He missed some training time after the Arkansas Juvenile which is why he missed the Derby. Is he fully recovered from whatever ailed him?
HR-jetman: That might be the question of the day .. sits at a nice price at 12/1
#2 Proust 11/1 Platero Stables
Pedigree – by Zensational out of the f-grade mare Papito by Giant’s Causeway x Forty Niner. Full brother to G-1 winner Prenzlauerberg.
Major Races – Wins in Sand Castle Derby (G-1), Winter is Coming (G-1), Charcoal Breeder’s Cup (G-3)
Highest Speed – 105
HR-jetman: He wins … or he loses.
HR-spinround Lol
HR-spinround Proust was one of my Derby selections
HR-jetman: Was the ten furlongs just a tad out of his comfort zone? What it just a bad day?
HR-spinround I was disappointed by his race, he was closer to the pace than is typical for him and lacked his usual closing punch in the stretch
HR-jetman: I want to throw the derby run out, and look more at his two previous runs … where he was outstanding
HR-spinround You know from a pedigree standpoint you wouldn’t expect a Zensational to relish 10f but the older brother does well and Proust won convincingly at 9.5f
HR-jetman: Its possible his trainer was worried by the early speed in the derby race?
HR-jetman: He will not have to worry about that in the Middle Jewel … that is basically devoid of early speed
HR-spinround The key will be getting him to relax early but not fall too far from the frontrunners
#3 Avenged 11/1 Gatetowire Stables
Pedigree – by Blame based on the c-grade horse Vengence by Vindication x Seeking the Gold.
Major Races – Wins in Scam (G-3), Gary Asher Memorial (G-3)
Highest Speed – 105
HR-spinround Avenged entered the Bluegrass Derby but just missed making the field
HR-jetman: Avenged might actually turn into one of the early speed horses in this race. He is normally a stalking type runner, but again in a race without a true pace setter, he could get thrust into the roll.
HR-spinround Instead of running in a different race that week owner gatetowire chose to retrain for this spot
HR-jetman: Seems a smart move Spin, only two weeks further, and comes in fresher than those that ran the derby
HR-spinround Yep I agree, why waste a big run on a second choice race
HR-spinround Vengence (the hemare Avenged was based on) did his best running at 8.5f
HR-jetman: Can he get 9.5?
HR-spinround Blame is a first year sire so it is unclear how that will help the pedigree but considering he himself was a winner at 10f you’d think Blame would be a help.
HR-spinround Avenged did win the Scam at 9f going away by over 2 lengths. He sure looked like a horse could go another sixteenth
HR-jetman: I agree, i would say he should be able to get the distance, the big hurdle possibly being running in his first Grade 1
#4 Lute’s Wish 17/1 Selurnivek Stables
Pedigree – by Midnight Lute out of the f-grade mare Satan’s Wish by E Dubai x Crimson Satan.
Major Races – Won the UFO Stakes (G-3), Show in the California Derby (G-1)
Highest Speed – 103
HR-jetman: One of the oddities in this years race … Midnight Lute only throwing 27% routers in the sim to date.
HR-spinround One thing tha concerns me is that the California Derby runners did not do well at all in the Bluegrass.
HR-spinround What may have appeared to be a strong prep may not actually be one
HR-jetman: One thing that intrigues me is he has finished in the money in Grade 1 races on both surfaces
HR-spinround He actually may be better on the turf, where he’s 2-1-0-1 and was only beaten 1/2 length in that G-1
HR-jetman: Coming off of plenty of rest as well
HR-spinround Ultimately I think the distance may just be too much for him. If you look at his CA Derby race he was 2 1/2 lengths behind at third call and basically hung there til the finish
HR-spinround He closed 4 lengths between call 2 and call 3 and then just couldn’t kick home
HR-jetman: I agree … pedigree says it might be to much, and while the sim can throw curveballs, he might be more of a true miler.
#5 Silverton 7/1 Lilbitfarm Stables
Pedigree – by Smart Strike based on the c-grade Band of Silver by Silver Deputy x Dixieland Band.
Major Races – Wins in Wooden Indian Derby (G-1) Immense Derby Challenge (G-1)
Highest Speed – 104
HR-jetman: I have to admit … this is my pick to win this years Middle Jewel.
HR-jetman: Four straight races 100+, 2x Grand 1 winner
HR-jetman: While it looked like 10f was too much, 9.5 might be just right.
HR-spinround I think the Bluegrass Derby might just be a throwout race for him
HR-spinround He seemed to make a couple of moves before tiring at the end. In a 20 horse field sometimes you have to use a horse more than you want to to get and maintain position.
HR-jetman: I agree … i think we might see a rebound here
HR-spinround He also came into the Derby off five blowout wins. The Derby might have been a gut check that he needs to move to the next level.
HR-jetman: I like that in a not so great run for him, he still posted a 102
HR-spinround Agree
#6 Chief Rainmaker 10/1 Dixiedotco Stables
Pedigree – scratchbred by Indian Charlie x Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector
Major Races – Win in the Moises Alou Cap (G-2)
Highest Speed – 102
HR-spinround This is the first of two runners for dixiedotco
HR-spinround This colt actually closed from 18th in the early stages of the Derby to finish 5th
HR-jetman: Here is yet another closer who was making moves in the derby, before fading
HR-jetman: I want to say he might be a miler, but hard to look past the move he made in the Derby. Will the reduced distance be enough to make him a factor?
HR-spinround I think there is an excuse called Ras El Hanout for the horses who faded late in the Derby. I don’t think they stopped running so much as he kicked on the afterburners.
HR-jetman: Hah .. you have me there spin. Ras made everyone look ordinary on derby day
HR-spinround If I had to point to a weakness in Chief Rainmaker it would be his speeds are just slightly slower than the rest
HR-spinround His top is a 102 which is huge but against this field it is on the low end of the spectrum
HR-spinround I just don’t know if he can make the jump necessary to pass all these runners down the stretch
HR-jetman: I agree, i think he will make a move again, but not have enough to get to the front.
HR-spinround Agree. At 10/1 he’ll have to prove me wrong
#7 Dynakaze 14/1 Given Stables
Pedigree – by Dynaformer out of f-grade Kamikaze by Deputy Minister x Mr. Prospector. Half brother to one graded winner and two other stakes winners.
Major Races – Placed in Arkansas Juvenile (G-1)
Highest Speed – 101
HR-spinround Dynakaze, like Time For Buda is making his first start since the Arkansas Juvenile
HR-jetman: It will be very interesting to see what trainer given does with this horse. Will he run him to stalk, or rate him
HR-jetman: given the lack of speed in the race, i might opt to run him close to the lead
HR-jetman: Horse definitely has talent, and i think is a major wild card. Only one graded race to date isn’t much to go on.
HR-spinround He’s very lightly raced (only 5 starts)
HR-jetman: he was closing hard in the Arkansas Juve, so we know distance will not be an issue
HR-spinround He was a lot farther back in the Arkansas race than he had been in earlier starts so he could show more speed in here
HR-spinround Certainly not with that pedigree
HR-jetman: I expect him to be at the front, and he could prove difficult to run down if he can gain the lead in the stretch
HR-spinround And even though he is lightly raced his last three starts have all come at 9f so he’s got some bottom to him
HR-jetman: a lot of ifs in there
#8 Ominous News 23/1 Bmr005 Stables
Pedigree – by Harbinger out of the d-grade mare Senorita Little by Seattle Slew x Little Current.
Major Races – Won the Chicago Derby (G-3)
Highest Speed – 104
HR-spinround This colt only has three starts on the year and has two wins and a second
HR-jetman: Another making his grade 1 debut. Has shown some talent, but i worry that he faced less than stellar compitition in the Chicago Derby
HR-spinround His last race saw a huge jump in speed (from a 93 to a 104) and I don’t know if he can jump again here
HR-jetman: Will easily be the toughest field to date, I wonder if he can hang with the class in this field
HR-jetman: He does like the dirt though. And distance is there as he won easily at 9f
HR-spinround I think he may be good enough with a little more time and experience. But I think he’ll need a race like this to test the waters before he shows his best
#9 Ras El Hanout 7/1 Super Stables
Pedigree – by Tanino Gimlet based on f-grade Covent Garden by Sadler’s Wells x Forty Niner.
Major Races – Wins in the Bluegrass Derby (G-1), Land’s End (G-2) Giant Slayer Classic (G-3) Club Stakes (G-2)
Highest Speed – 111
HR-jetman: Here is the one with the target on his back.
HR-jetman: If he gets a head of steam going will there be any way of holding him back
HR-spinround I don’t know jet. He’s undefeated on the dirt and nobody’s touched him so far.
HR-spinround He did run an explosive race in the Bluegrass and whether he can come back in two weeks and do it again, I’m not so certain
HR-jetman: I have heard numerous trainers comment that his win in the derby was one of the most dominant in many years.
HR-spinround Exactly and I think if the other runners have any hope it is that he may have knocked himself out with that huge race.
HR-jetman: One thing for certain … he is a true triple crown threat.
HR-spinround Absolutely
HR-spinround He made a very strong field look just ordinary
HR-jetman: I would worry as you do … that 111 was a monster race, and i also worry about him regressing a tad.
HR-jetman: Just amazing career to date
HR-spinround If anyone can make a race of this it is our next entrant.
#10 Final Exit 6/1 Dixiedotco stables
Pedigree – by Dynaformer out of the b-grade mare Heaven’s Gate, by Seeking the Gold x Northern Dancer. Half sister to two graded winners and two other stakes winners.
Major Races – Wins in the Lool Oaks (G-1), Darley (G-1), Louisiana Oaks (G-2), Dubai 1000 Guineas (G-3), Placed in the Bluegrass Oaks (G-1)
Highest Speed 110
HR-spinround The filly is the favorite, which I think in itself is a huge upset.
HR-jetman: I am fairly certain this entry shocked the rest of the field. She ran a monster race in the Oaks, but still couldn’t get the front
HR-jetman: I did hear a number of people comment that the Oaks field was tougher than the Derby field. Could that have played a part in the decision of dixiedotco to send his star filly?
HR-spinround She got shuffled much farther back than she’s used to being early on in the Oaks but she came charging to miss by just 1/2 length
HR-spinround I certainly think it played a huge part.
HR-spinround Who would have thought before the races that both the Derby and Oaks would be won with a 110 speed? Usually the girls are a bit slower but not this year.
HR-spinround Sorry 111
HR-jetman: I think the extra half a furlong could actually play to her … this could be a new top
HR-spinround And Final Exit’s Oaks was better than 19 of the Derby colts’ races
HR-jetman: Looks like i need to make more than one bet for this race, it gets more muddled the further we go
#11 Steelshanks 13/1 Checkmate Stables
Pedigree – by Forestry out of the e-grade mare Buckner’s Legacy by Seeking the Gold x Seattle Slew.
Major Races – Placed in Giant Slayer Classic (G-3), Shows in Land’s End (G-2) and Corkscrew Stakes (G-1).
Highest Speed – 100
HR-jetman: This is the early speed in the race.
HR-jetman: He should be the pace setter, and if i was his jockey i would be kicking with everything i had early to try and kick free
HR-spinround I agree but I don’t see him lasting down the stretch
HR-spinround He’d be winning his first graded race of any kind
HR-jetman: I also don’t think the distance is right for him.
HR-spinround And would have to run a significantly higher lifetime best speed to be a factor
HR-jetman: I think he will lead for the first 8.5 furlongs then fade hard as the closers come charging down the stretch
HR-spinround I agree
HR-spinround I think this is a very ambitious spot for him.
HR-jetman: Anything is possible though … again .. go to the front and try to build as big a lead as you can!
#12 Skitzoid 8/1 Tees Stables
Pedigree – scratchbred by Awesome Again x A.P. Indy x Storm Cat
Major Races – Win in the Vermont is 4 Lovers (G-1), Place in the Bluegrass Derby (G-1)
Highest Speed – 108
HR-jetman: The early morning favorite to be dead last at the first call … Skitzoid is the true definition of a “dead closer”
HR-spinround Absolutely. He was 20 of 20 at first call in the Derby, 14 of 14 in the Florida Derby and 13 of 13 in the Vermont is 4 Lovers
HR-jetman: Has won his last two races at 9.5 furlongs
HR-spinround And if you take out Ras, Skitzoid would have been a clear Derby winner
HR-jetman: You have to wonder if he can catch the lead if he drops back so far again
HR-spinround You can’t beat the pedigree either
HR-jetman: Pedigree is beautifull
#13 Weekly Express 11/1 Phantom Stables
Pedigree – by Special Week out of e-grade mare Storm Express by Afleet Alex x Unbridled’s Song.
Major Races – Win in the Florida Derby (G-1)
Highest Speed – 104
HR-jetman: Fourth in the Bluegrass at 10 furlongs ….. first in the Florida Derby at 9f. What is in the cards for this runner at 9.5f?
HR-spinround I actually think he may be sitting on a big race.
HR-jetman: He has talent, but will need that big speed jump to compete for the win.
HR-spinround His Florida Derby was a new top for him and to see him run back to that race in the Bluegrass suggests that he might be able to run a big one here.
HR-spinround I think you might just see him moving forward
HR-spinround One runner left
HR-jetman: He actually ran a heck of a race in the derby, but there were just some monster runs put out.
#14 Lucky’s Franklin 8/1 Mr. Lucky’s Stables
Pedigree – by Curlin based on f-grade Lucky’s Oh Hi Oh by A.P. Indy x Storm Cat
Major Races – Places in the All Saints Derby (G-1) and Bluegrass Derby (G-1)
Highest Speed – 105
HR-spinround I’ll be honest this colt surprised me in the Derby and if he runs in the money here it will be without my money again.
HR-jetman: Still seeking that first graded win, this horse has shown the talent to compete at this level.
HR-jetman: I admit that run in the derby shocked me as well. But that is not saying much as my handicapping skills are less than stellar
HR-jetman: I don’t think you can totally discount what he has done to date however
HR-jetman: has finished in the money in both of his graded starts … both of which were Grade 1 runs
HR-spinround This will also be his fourth race in eight weeks. That’s a tough schedule for a young three year old.
HR-jetman: That is a fantastic point spin, and i admit i missed that.
HR-spinround Don’t get me wrong I would love to have a horse like this. I just don’t see him moving forward yet again to be a factor in this spot.
HR-jetman: I agree
HR-spinround So that’s the field. What’s the play jet?
HR-jetman: I have been thinking about this for a bit … but i think i have to go with 5-9-12 ….
HR-jetman: Silvertin / Ras / Skitzoid
HR-jetman: Was very hard to discount Time For Buda & Proust …. and Dynazeke could make a play.
HR-jetman: But i like my bet
HR-spinround I’m going with Final Exit / Weekly Express / Proust
HR-jetman: I would box that bet .. as i am too chicken to bet against Ras to win
HR-spinround I think the filly will love the distance and may just be better than all the boys.
HR-jetman: Very interesting … you are banking on the Florida Derby winner to really pop a big number
HR-spinround I know I throw Ras out at my peril but I think the Derby may just have gotten to the bottom of him.
HR-spinround I do think we’ll see an improvement from Weekly Express in this spot and if Proust is not too close to the pace he could run back to his earlier form.
HR-jetman: I am a sap .. and the thought of another triple crown winner in the sim has me rooting for Ras.
HR-jetman: I do think Silverton is the one sitting on a big run however.
HR-spinround That’s what makes the game fun jet!
HR-spinround Good luck to all the runners and we’ll see you back here for the New Yorker
HR-jetman: I agree .. Luck to all the runners and may everyone come back Ready to Go!