Italian Derby G1

The Italian Derby is in its fourth year as a G1 featured race in Italy.   This race was first run in 2009 which featured the largest field that ever ran with 13 runners that year.  Incidentally, the speed record was also established and still stands at 100, set by Expressionism, who is now retired by was trained by Icbomber4.

Over the last two years, the field size dropped considerably to only 6 entrants.  This year we see another small field, but slightly higher than the last two with eight heading to the post.  Early speed has been critical in this 12 furlong turf race, as two horses have wired the field and last year, the pacesetter gave up the lead in the stretch and finished second. 

The turf looks to be firm for the three year olds that will compete for the half-million dollar purse.   Only one filly has been entered into this field, The Anvil Breaker, with hopes of breaking down the boys.  Here’s a snapshot of the field:

1.     8-1

Hurricane Troy

After winning two of last three starts at allowance level, this late closer now advances up to the highest level of racing on the circuit.  He’s been racing 11-furlongs lately and the extra furlong won’t hurt.  Speeds have been in low-90’s in last two but the challenge will be to run down the speed rabbits in this race, and that may proof to be a difficult task.  

2.   2 -1

Fakmi

Has finished fourth in each of his last two starts, both in graded race starts.  In his last outing, he set career speed mark of 100 going 10f in the Japanese 2000 Guineas.   This son of Makfi likes to run on lead, or pretty darn close to it, will be going a bit further and will need to show that he is up to the task.

3.   17-1

Cork Kroc

Cork started his career with three consecutive victories before finishing third in a short-field low level stakes race, where he hit his career best speed of 92.  All of this happened on dirt and now moves to the turf.  Odds are rather steep, however, sire Denis of Cork has seen about 2/3rds of offspring favoring the grass.  If this one finds a similar liking, there could be a very nice pay day.

4.     7-1

The Anvil Breaker

The only filly in this field has picked up a recent win and a second against allowance company racing at 11 furlongs.   She has ability to come from off the pace to go after the leaders.  Her speed is of some concern, topping at 90 in last race.  She does have experience going longer distance and many in this field are stretching a bit, and this could work to her advantage.

5.     7-1

Opera Camazotz

This guy has two career wins on the grass, breaking his maiden in January by wiring the field with a speed of 90.  He picked up the second win last month with another wire job and setting a career best speed of 96 when running 10 furlongs.  Could be very dangerous if he gets to the front, but will need to be able to show he can go extra quarter mile as he makes his stakes debut.

6.    5 -1

Corleones

A three-time winner culminating with a low-end stake win in the Plastic Golem Turf in December.  He took the victory with a speed of 97 going 8.5 furlongs.  After a rest, he returned to the track, jumping to graded level with a poor effort going 10.5 furlongs.  Last month, he showed nice improvement running a mile finishing fifth and career best speed of 98.   Stretches out in distance, which is a concern.  If he can handle this, he has a legitimate shot of winning.

7.     2 -1

Paid In Gold

Throughout his career, this colt has not finished worse than third in 11 starts.  He’s been placed well in races, not entering a field of more than seven.  Last four starts have been in low-end stake races where he has gone 1-1-2 with speeds increasing from 92 to his career best 103 in his last start.  He loves to run on the lead, but has never gone more than 9 furlongs.  Gonna be tough to keep this one off the board.

8.    12-1

Storm Kalb

Showed he could go the distance in last start where he beat out rival late closer by nose in 11 furlong allowance event.  Recorded career mark speed of 90 in the race and jumps to top level of racing in this G1 event.   Could be a bit too much and may need a bit more time to grow into this level, but trainer has long history of success.

Favorites look good on paper, but several horses are bumping up in distance quite a bit.  I think this race is more open then it first appears.  The Anvil Breaker gets my top choice.  This girl I think will have good positioning behind the front runners and could take advantage as they tire late in the race.

Corleones put in a nice effort in second start after a rest.  I’m looking for further improvement off of that and this one could fire things up late.

I think the front runners will get caught in this race, but if one should survive, Paid In Gold is my selection.