Part 2 of Breeders Bowl Distaff Preview
By- Cvbear
Read Part 1: http://blacktypebugler.com/default.asp?artid=994
#9: STORMSHAFT (10-1)
Classic division rank: #4 (among three-year-old fillies)
Pedigree: Mineshaft-Swell Prospector, by Storm Cat
Jockey: F Gossett (674-145-112-85, 21.5% win, 50.7% on the board)
Trainer: tripcrown9 (225-41-25-24, 18.2% win, 40% on the board)
Career highlights/Major 2005 wins: Grade II Denny Tario Oaks; Fantasia Handicap
Major 2005 flops: 9th, Grade III Little Evil Sophomore
What the trainer thinks: BTB correspondents were quickly shooed away from the backstretch barns, under the guise of “No news is good news”. However, tripcrown9’s assistant was overheard in an enthusiastic conversation outside of New York’s racing secretary’s office. “Yeah, she’s had a rocky road at times over the summer. But we’ve been experimenting with her approach, and we’re trying to get her to be more active during a race, and not just to wait until the mood strikes. Part of her issue is that, and part is that she still tends to get a bit riled in the gate. So, we’ve been schooling her away from the others. We’re seeing progress. I think she’s really responding to the different treatment.”
What the jockey thinks: “On the plane from California, I watched films of Stormshaft to get to know her better. She’s a rangy filly with a beautiful stride, and a flair for the dramatic, but only in a good way. She seems to like to drop way back and then rally, and while that got the job done some of the time, there are some times this summer, especially in the California race, where you could tell that just wasn’t working for her. I hope I can convince her to stay alert early on so that when we enter the far turn I can coax her to the front. She’s bred to go long, and it really appeals to her, so if she’s not too far from the lead on the turn, she should be plenty game.”
What the competition thinks: “She’s one no one can underestimate. Stormshaft can threaten from far back, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her put together a great big run late. I don’t take her lightly at all.”—assistant to opposing trainer
What the railbird thinks: “There’s not much I can say about this little girl that hasn’t already been said. Interestingly, however, will she ever win a G1? A question I’m sure her trainer asks constantly.”—ricdav093, in the BTB preview of the Little Evil Sophomore (where Stormshaft was 9th), September 17
Preview: This talented filly came into June with gusto, and with the respect of many of her peers courtesy of her two Grade II wins. Her wins in the Denny Tario and the Fantasia, coupled with a second in the Bluegrass Oaks and a belated fourth in the Black Middle Flower, all of which came from well off the pace, propelled her into the top flight of sophomore fillies. But after an intense performance in the Denny Tario, where she rallied from eight lengths back to win driving, she hasn’t been the same. Her late kick as she’s risen through the division has proven a bit more ineffectual, and her last three preps for this, all at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, have found her rallying more slowly. Her numbers remain fair, even against these, but the spark she had in the spring has dimmed, and maybe a change in approach might do her some good. In her present form, talented as she is, Stormshaft might be in for a rough Saturday.
#10: GLASS HEART (6-1)
Classic division rank: #2 (among older fillies and mares)
Pedigree: Stormin Fever x End Sweep
Jockey: J Stivers (708-178-131-88, 25.1% win, 56.1% on the board)
Trainer: 4stardave (741-93-98-88, 12.6% win, 37.7% on the board)
Career highlights/Major 2005 wins: Grade II Chubby Visa handicap; Grade III Boquet O’Daisies Stakes, Rose Garden handicap
Major 2005 flops: 11th, Grade I Bumblebee Classic (eased)
What the trainer thinks: “I’ve been playing the game since about week 439 (give or take a few weeks), and this will be my second trip to the BB, and 3rd starter. I had two go last year, both of which had started to go off form, and honestly was just happy to finally get to the big dance. This year I’m happy to be going, but will be disappointed if Glass Heart doesn’t at least hit the board. In actuality, while I respect each of the fillies I’ll be running against, I think Glass Heart is the one to beat. She’s one of the two best horses that I’ve had in the Sim, and definitely the best filly. She has shown tremendous ability from the minute she set foot on the track. And trainer epic should get a ‘fortune teller’ award. Back on 6/26/04, (fellow trainer) vegasjef started a message board thread titled “Speed figures getting out of control.” Epic used race 2167.2113 as an example of that “problem,” noting that his horse ran a 104 and was third. He went on to write, ‘To show even further how crazy the 114 winning SF was, that’s the exact same SF my 4YO filly Fumascus had on Saturday in winning her G2 race. I think the winner of this race will prove to be an elite filly.’ Well, the winner of that race was Glass Heart, who ran her record to 3 for 3 in that one. She’s as consistent as they come, having only 2 speed figures below 100 for her entire career: this first one was a 96 when she broke her maiden, and the other came when she was eased in the Bumblebee. I got a little too greedy running her in the Bumblebee, running her back in just two weeks after she ran a strong 2nd against the boys in the Cosmopolitan Mile. I gave her plenty of time to regroup after the Bumblebee, and she seems to have come back as strong as ever. Her win in the Rose Garden was easier than it appeared, and she had a nice prep last out in the Superfilly. As for tactics in the race, I’m not going to change her running style now. She basically likes to settle, start her run on the turn, and run them down in the lane. The only thing that would hurt her is if the race is pace less, which I don’t anticipate.”
What the jockey thinks: “I wouldn’t take the trip from France if I didn’t have horses worth the trans-Atlantic crossing to ride. When I rode her in the Cosmopolitan in May, I knew she would be something special. It’s like all I had to do is throw a switch, and she’d be sailing through the clouds and get to the front. She may not have won that day, but I’ve followed her every move since then, and I’ve been really impressed with how she’s trained all year. I love my chances, and I know she’s poised to steal some thunder from a Squall.”
What the competition thinks: “Glass Heart is the only older horse that somewhat worries me.”—opposing trainer
What the railbird thinks: “Glass Heart has quietly been a force in the older female division running some great races. She is one of the top contenders for the Breeder’s Bowl but she may not be as well known as others in her division.”—knightmare, in the BTB recap of the Superfilly, September 30
Preview: She’s been everywhere, it seems. North, south, east, west, she’s the horse who’s faced the best. She’s gone border-to-border, to border-to-border, and has come away with four wins in eleven starts. Her one misstep turned out to be a literal misstep, as she clipped heels after the break in the Bumblebee Classic, and ended up cut on her feet, which was enough to sideline her for over two months in the summertime. She healed beautifully, and her preps have been absolutely stellar, with two wins and a second (in the Superfilly) upon her return. That her late run never fully got into gear over this course last out seems irrelevant, as the pace was contentious, but her figs have constantly broken the low-110s, and she seems to have earned her stripes over this four-year-old campaign, especially against the boys in the Cosmopolitan, where she was close to a swift early lead, yet still managed to beat all but one of the boys she faced there, closing well to be second. 4stardave has proven that trainers sometimes can do no wrong, as she only missed picking up a check when she was injured. With a jockey on board known for his good luck with strong closers, she seems primed for a top effort here.
#11: TERMANTIA (16-1)
Classic division rank: #9 (among three-year-old fillies)
Pedigree: Pulpit x Irish River(FR)
Jockey: R Foster (280-41-17-37, 14.6% win, 33.9% on the board)
Trainer: zatopeck (611-82-80-76, 13.4 % win, 39% on the board)
Major 2005 results: 2nd, Grade I California Oaks, Oak Grove Stakes
Major 2005 flops: 18th, Grade I Bluegrass Oaks; 13th, Grade I Sweet Nanette Stakes
What the trainer thinks: Trainer zatopeck was unavailable for interviews due to pressing business elsewhere. One of the assistant trainers did come clean with a theory, though: “Her best hope is to be the pressure that forces Empire Reef to run out of her mind. I suspect that she’ll be somewhere just off that other filly’s flank, no more than a length off the lead. If she knows we’re there, she won’t try anything dangerous to our chances. We focused on honing her speed the last week or so, and we used a bar shoe to guard against the hoof problems she’s prone to. We want her to still be there when the speed fades, and to hold off everyone else. She’s far more versatile than anyone gives her credit for.”
What the jockey thinks: “I may not be as seasoned a jock as many of the others in the jockey’s room, but I know this surface. I think it can support Termantia, and she should take to it just fine. The word is Empire Reef is going to take them out early. I know my instructions by heart, and they are to go with her, but not to engage her or pass her. She’s not a juvenile on a sloppy track, setting sub-44 fractions. She could possibly steal the race, if she’s fast enough and Empire Reef doesn’t break well. I think I can get her to stay the distance, and I’m not concerned about what others might do.”
What the competition thinks: “She holds the key to the race, really. If she goes to the front to keep Empire Reef company, it sets it up for someone else later. If she leaves her alone, Empire Reef might wire the field. It’s a tough position to be in, if you’re part of her connections.”—assistant to an opposing trainer
What the railbird thinks: “She has had a problem with getting passed at the wire.”— pazjazz, BTB preview of the Oak Grove, September 1
Preview: She’s the other prime source of speed in this race, and barring a third early pace controller joining the fray, it’ll be up to her to keep Empire Reef in check. Her speed shouldn’t be overlooked, either: early in the year she was beaten a length in the Grade I California Oaks, and a length-and-a-half in the Grade III Leopard Stakes. More likely, though, her result could be similar to her loose-on-the-lead strategy in the Denny Tario Oaks at this distance, where she led by six at the top of the stretch, only to stagger home second. Her numbers are pretty fair here, but her one-dimensional style diminishes hope that she’ll hang on late. She could influence the race strategies, but unless she rates better than she ever has, and a new dimension to her comes through, it could wind up a long afternoon.
#12: DONNER (17-1)
Classic division rank: #5 (among three-year-old fillies)
Pedigree: Thunder Gulch-Project Matter, by Deputy Minister
Jockey: T Small (735-194-142-109, 26.4% win, 60.5% on the board)
Trainer: sam812218 (555-67-61-84, 12.1% win, 38.2% on the board)
Career highlights/Major 2005 wins: Won Grade I Chestnut Stakes; Players Club National Oaks; Grade II Fast Feline Stakes
Major 2005 flops: 11th, Grade II Cotton Handicap
What the trainer thinks: “”The first thing you need to do is toss Donner’s last. I gave the instructions to close from out of the clouds, something she hates, to hopefully give her a little extra kick in this race. We’ll see if that works here. Personally, I absolutely love the way this pace should set up. Lots of dead closers in here, so I’m wanting Donner to sit third about a length-and-a-half behind Termantia and Empire Reef, who look like the obvious two speeds. From there, I’m hoping she can take over a little before, or in the stretch, and hold off the charge. I think the 3yo’s are the class of the distaff
division. Horses like Swift Kick have stepped up to
older & beat them, so why not think it? Overall, I like my chances far more than the oddsmakers do!””
What the jockey thinks: “I’m going to do what I’m told, and that means we stalk like we were Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, only without boiling anything. I love this filly so much from watching her run all day, and I think she’s a major threat no matter where I have her spotted. The others are strong, there’s a lot of closing speed, and this field is pretty deep anyway, but I’ve seen her run long and seen her go a mile, and having ridden her, I’m certain no matter how she’s steered, she’ll run like a ’65 Mustang when it counts.”
What the competition thinks: “She’s very dangerous. Her ability to go long routes or miles has alerted my boss to the fact that preparing against her is a nightmare. She’s probably the best three-year-old no one’s talking about, and she can do anything over a mile.”—opposing horse’s hotwalker
What the railbird thinks: “When I saw her in the Go For Broke, I thought to myself, she’s not going to hold them off after being so close to the pace. But she kept going and going, it was like the Energizer Bunny. They may not have been the best field, but she shined like a superstar. You knew she’d get even better.”—Delaware’s track announcer
Preview: At 2, she showed promise, but never crossed over until her last ’04 start, when she romped in a GR Simsters-restricted race and ran a 104 speed figure. At 3, she’s continued to mature, blossoming particularly in that Grade III Go For Broke win, where she took the lead entering the far turn and quickly accelerated to coast home almost four lengths in front. She went off going 11 furlongs in the Chestnut over this surface, romped next in the Players Club Oaks, and held off the late charge in the Fast Feline two back. Her numbers as the Distaff approaches are pretty good, if not necessarily stellar, and her last was evidently used more as a training regimen than a legitimate prep…which makes her thirteenth-place finish a bit alarming. She faces older here for the first time, and there is an abundance of closers, so if there was a lesson to be learned, sam812218 should very much hope she learned it well enough. That said, she better not get too close to the front end, because if the pace is hotter than what some people expect, she could be finished before they turn for home.
#13: DUBAI PROSPECTOR (21-1)
Classic division rank: #3 (among three-year-old fillies)
Pedigree: Essence of Dubai-Carby Prospect, by Mr. Prospector
Jockey: T Loesch (725-201-137-96, 27.7% win, 59.9% on the board)
Trainer: ezywin (167-34-28-19, 20.4% win, 48.5% on the board)
Breeders Bowl résumé: 2nd, 2004 Juvenile Fillies
Career highlights: Won Grade I Getaway Stakes; 2nd, Grade I Bluegrass Derby (versus colts)
Major 2005 wins: Grade II Louisiana Oaks; Grade I lool Oaks
Major 2005 flops: 14th, Grade I Exam Stakes (eased)
What the trainer thinks: “This little filly has been a constant source of pleasure for me. She was voted the Eclipse two-year-old filly of the year last year which was a bit of a surprise and an honour. She finished second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly last year and we’re hoping she can go one better this year. Only once in her eleven starts has she finished outside of the first two and that was when resuming after her gallant second in the Bluegrass Derby and she came back injured. After another lay off she came back with a nice 2nd in Stakes company and I think she’ll strip a lot fitter after that run. Her best is very good and she’s proven she can get the trip, and I think the 21-1 odds the bookies are offering is very generous and expect her to go very close. If she can run at her peak, there isn’t a horse I fear in the field despite some very good fillies and mares facing the starter. This horse never ever gives up and has talent to burn.”
What the jockey thinks: “I’m honored to get the mount. All my jock friends kept emailing me about this fabulous filly that almost won the Derby, and when I saw that race, I knew I had to see about getting the mount if our paths crossed. I’m sensitive to her tendency to get hurt when the big race comes, and I’m sure that she’ll be fit to fight against the best fillies. When I worked her last week, I gave her a couple of my own tests, just like I was told to, and she responded like a machine. She’s ready for this. I’m ready for this. Together, I hope we’re unstoppable.”
What the competition thinks:
“I’m most worried about Dubai Prospector, who is recovering from a couple of injuries and will be in top form for the first time since her second in the Bluegrass Derby.”—opposing trainer
“I also have the utmost respect for Dubai Prospector. She seems to have recovered from whatever went wrong in the Exam Stakes, and I think she’ll be dangerous.”—another opposing trainer
“Dubai Prospector, even at 21-1, is a serious wildcard.”—still another opposing trainer
What the railbird thinks: “If she ever stays healthy for an extended period, she just might turn into a Hall Of Famer, because there’s so much potential in her to become a legend. We were surprised…astonished, really, but thrilled to see her on the entries list for the Sister Pam. If it can elevate us to a graded status, fantastic, but regardless, she was absolutely angelic while she was here. We wish her success, and hope this was the key race that propels her to the winner’s circle.”—Japan’s assistant racing secretary
Preview: The Dead said it best: “What a long, strange trip it’s been.” She’s got the fewest 2005 starts, and probably the single most eye-opening result of the year: she wound up second in the Bluegrass Derby off of two prep races for fillies(!), and actually led for almost three furlongs, into the stretch before she gave way and Anticosti collared her. That surprising result would be the last anyone would hear from this filly for about three months, but unfortunately, the surprises continued. Her comeback in the Grade I Exam was one that she…well, it must be said: she flunked out, getting eased after nearly tumbling at the break, and in addition to the cuts on her legs she suffered, she was rumored to have wound up with quarter-cracks which required more time to heal. When she returned, it was under cover of the clouds in Japan, where she was a fast-closing second in her second comeback. She’s been training well for a return, and the added eighth will certain appeal to her fitness. Earlier in the year, she won two graded mile-and-a-sixteenth stakes from off the pace, yet by the same token her style at 2 was to take them out fast. If she decides to join the early leaders, it wouldn’t be too surprising, but one expects she’s itching to sit back, and wait on the pacesetters to show signs of vulnerability. As lightly raced as she is, and as strong as her career has been to date (the only race she never finished first or second in was one where she was hurt), she also can show signs of fragility, so one should be inclined to approach this filly’s best hopes with serious reflection and due caution.
#14: GALLOPING GHOST (17-1)
Classic division rank: #6 (among older fillies and mares)
Pedigree: Wild Again x Easy Goer
Jockey: D Evans (715-163-121-123, 22.8% win, 55.3% on the board)
Trainer: tejanorun (474-70-77-64, 14.8% win, 44.5% on the board)
Breeders Bowl résumé: 4th, 2003 Distaff
Career highlights: Won 2003 Grade I Chestnut Stakes; 2004 and 2005 Grade I South Astralian Cup; 2005 Grade I Nashua Cup
Major 2005 wins: Grade I Nashua Cup; Grade I South Astralian Cup; Grade I G.S.R. Cup
Major 2005 flops: 8th, Grade II Bluegrass Cup Turf
What the trainer thinks: “Galloping Ghost is my entrant, and she makes her second appearance in the BB Distaff. She was fourth in this race two years ago, with a 115 SF. I bred her for an NFL-themed contest in the now defunct SERA residency (Galloping Ghost was Red Granger’s nickname). She promptly won, beating the colts, something she has done consistently well throughout her career. This year, the Ghost has run exclusively against the colts, more than holding her own— this will be her first and only start this year against females. She’s a deep, deep closer, but has a devastating late kick, so a lot of how she does will depend upon the early pace in this race. I think that nine furlongs is probably too short for her, as she’s a true marathoner, but D Evans has been solid with her this year; it’s been a while since I tried anything shorter than 12 furlongs with her, and she’s such a classy mare that I decided the Ghost deserved a shot here. We may try to keep a little bit closer to the pace than usual, given the distance. I ran her on turf last time out, mainly because she’d only run on it once before, at a time when she was being a maddening, baffling two-year-old. If she ran well, I was going to see if I could enter her in the F&M Turf, but she showed that she is much better on the main track, and the turf to dirt angle never hurts.”
What the jockey thinks: “That I’m even associated with this beautiful mare is a bloody miracle. I’m glad I’ve earned everyone’s trust over 2005 to come up to ride her in this prestigious event, and I think we’ve got a winner, for sure. She’s a late closer, and she’s got what most of the other fillies here do not have, and that’s timing. She knows exactly when and where the finish line will be and will wait until the proper time to get going. I hope to not drop her into the cellar and blow my best chance to win by being too far out. I’ll follow the instructions carefully, and between her stamina and her class over the years, I think we’re well in the stew on this one. Never count the Ghost out.”
What the competition thinks: “She always has to be respected, no matter what. She’s got the stamina to be there at the end, and none of the speed tactics should impress her a lot. When they fall apart on the lead, she’ll be sucking them up like a vacuum. I don’t know if it’ll be enough, though. Still, I get worried.”—assistant to opposing trainer
What the railbird thinks: “She has carried all before her over marathon routes on the dirt, defeating the boys at will and for my money deserves every accolade for her achievements.”—kevoman, BTB preview of the Bluegrass Cup Turf, September 22
Preview: She’s the Belle of the Ball from down under, an expert at going long distances of ground, and she’s done something very few mares of any age will ever do: she’s beaten colts. And not just beaten them: for the first six races of the year, she’s annihilated ’em. She won the Grade III Gallant Socks, the Grade I G.S.R. Cup and the Grade I South Astralian Cup by comfortable margins from well off the lead against large fields, and just eked out a win in the Nashua Cup against similar. She hasn’t faced her own gender since September 11, 2004, and hasn’t raced as short a distance as nine panels since being fourth in the 2003 Distaff, which poses a couple of issues. She’s a marathon specialist, and that’s where her bread-and-butter lies, in distances longer than 12 furlongs—can her engines get revved up before they turn for home? Plus, with a talented and deep pool of top fillies and mares, she may be fit, but is she up to that level of female competition without having raced against them for so long? Added worry comes from declining speed figures in her last three dirt starts; with the best here running closer to 110s, running in the 90s just won’t do. Still, it’s interesting to note that tejanorun opted for a turf prep for this; the turf-to-dirt angle usually conditions a horse for the better, and the additional fitness is bound to help this 17-for-44 lifetime campaigner. She’s got fortitude, ability, and a talented jock in the irons, but there’s a lot to overcome, especially breaking from post 14 (which, for such a deep closer, is negligible). Watch her in the post parade carefully.
I’ve seen a lot of races, looked over a ton of past performances, and I’ve analyzed this race to its core. After giving every horse due consideration and analyzing how this race should set up, here are my predictions:
Glass Heart
Squall Is A Storm
Caddilac Moon
Swift Kick
Dubai Prospector
Donner
Galloping Ghost
Empire Reef
Homecoming Dance
Dangerous Reward
Cupid’s Dead
Stormshaft
Termantia
Technically T(IRE)
If you have a Breeders Bowl contender, good luck, and I hope they come home sound and safe. And if you’re just watching, have fun, good luck in your handicapping, and happy racing to you all!