Perchance to Dream, Hoping for Future Glory

Note: I have an entry in this race, so please forgive any likely bias that occurs in this article. 🙂

I love looking at the various 2 yo stakes races during the Triple Crown season. It’s our first look at the potential new stars of the sim. It gives us some insight into the hot sires of the year in some cases. But mainly its because its such an unpredictable race. Unlike the other races being run at Kentucky this week, there is almost no history, no performance to track. The most any of them have run is two races, and many are just coming off their debut race. Its wide open despite the results in those first races. Many of the horses running in this race are hoping this is the first step to being in a much bigger race this time next year. Most and maybe all won’t reach this goal-ah but to be able to look back and say this is where it all began for my horse-it will be a race long remembered and cherished by their owners. So lets celebrate all the entrants in this race for taking this bold step into their futures.

PP #1-More Than Buda-Trainer: Joanneb Odds: 8/1

Starting from the coveted inside rail spot is this More Than Ready colt out of a Class C “he-mare” and 2010 Triple Crown runner Stars of Buda. (Fusaichi Pegasus) Clearly he will be pointed to Derby-like distances in the future, but off to a nice start with a debut win at 5.5 furlongs with a sparkling 76 SP. Will five furlongs be a bit too short for this one? More than Ready is one of the sires Mike announced as getting a breeding boost earlier this season, and won’t be the last such sire used in this race. Stars of Buda did love the dirt winning 4 times in a 26 career race, but never went shorter than 7 furlongs.

PP #2-Left Side Strong-Trainer: Dundey3 (bred by holybull99) Odds: 8/1

LSS is a Street Boss colt out of Class D mare Awekitty (Awesome Again). She was primarily a sprinter so should come as no surprise here that her baby got off to a good start sprinting. Started to pull away at the end of his debut race on the dirt which he won with a 73 SP, then interestingly enough moved over to the turf, which his mother did not like as much in her one career race there, and won again this time with a 76 SP and going wire to wire as well. Look out if he gets the early lead here, he’s clearly a good fit here.

 PP #3-Xtra Gold  Trainer: ejdstable Odds: 19/1

Xtra Gold is a Discreetly Mine colt out of Class A champion mare Xtremely Gold (Touch Gold.) That bright lady loved to go very very long so the early sprint success is a tad surprising despite the breeding. I suspect this one won’t be staying in sprints for long either. He only has one race under his belt, a debut win at 6 furlongs where he came on late to win it with a 65 SP.. I think the five furlongs of this race will be too short for him, but can’t fault the trainer for giving it a try anyway given the quality of the breeding.

PP #4-Stay In Orbit Trainer: Eminc (bred by Plainfield) Odds: 8/1

Stay is a Distorted Humor colt out of a Class D mare Street Creds (Street Cry). That one was a marathon runner as well, and did not like sprinting at all, so a large surprise here. Stay in Orbit has done well so far in his young career-going 2 for 2 in a dirt MSW, than an allowance win last time out at 4.5 furlongs while improving his SP to a 72. Will need to improve on that SP to contend here and seems well primed to do so.

PP #5-Regal Sting Trainer: Ochbarn Odds: 15/1

Regal Ransom is a hot new freshman sire that was not on the list Mike gave at the beginning of 2 yo breeding season so those (including me) that have used him have been pleasantly surprised by the results. He’s sired by Distorted Humor so maybe not so much of a surprise that he’d do well in the sim. He’s been used here in a breeding to Class G mare Pulled a String (Pulpit) that has not produced much in the way of successful breedings so far. So the debut win at 5.5 furlongs was a small surprise. Followed that with a decent third place finish in an allowance on a wet track. Not likely to contend here given that his high SP so far is a 64 last time out. But you never know….

PP #6-Trained Well Trainer: Colebarns Odds: 7/1

This is the one bred by me, and from the name you might think I have a big ego, but I don’t really. Name came from the sire used, Commands, one of those on Mike’s list of improving horses to a E rated retired mare by the named of Spotted Dog (Pulpit). Commands is a turf loving son of Danehill, hence why I started her there first. Yes her, she’s the only filly in the race. First race resulted in a win with a nice SP of 71, but Spotted Dog loved to run dirt sprints. So decided to go that way for the second race. That resulted in 2nd place, 80 SP effort against another full field of boys. That 80 ties for the high SP of any horses in this race. Nope no bias here. 😉

PP #7-Visible Clout Trainer: Lordbear3 Odds: 12/1

VC is a son of the sire Exchange Rate, a nice cheapy son of Danzig that has a sprinkling of stakes runners to be found in the sim. He was used here with a Class C retired mare Notable Jab (Curlin). That horse had some very early success at dirt sprinting then turned exclusively to a mile and more. So no real surprise that her son has found success early at sprinting. First race was a win with a 68 SP then he jumped all the way to a Stakes race next time out and the result was encouraging, a 76 SP at 6 furlongs. I don’t think the shorter distance will be a problem for this one and may be another that tries to grab the lead from the start.

PP #8-Atlantic Jewell Trainer: Armagedon (bred by redblack) Odds: 7/1

This one bred using Malibu Moon to a Class G retired mare that never broke 80 certainly sparkled in his debut, going wire to wire with a 71 SP. Malibu Moon is another on Mike’s “Most Improved List” and that’s the likely reason for that good result given the quality of damsire used. He jumps right from that race to a Derby Day Graded Stakes race. That is a very big jump and we will have to see if he’s up to it.

PP #9-River Jack CB Trainer: bizalls Odds: 8/1

Bizalls has gone back to one of his most successful retired mares, and in fact one of the older in the sim for this breeding. That would be the wonderful Class A mare River Nicole (Nureyev). For this breeding he used Fusaichi Pegasus, and no doubt expected greatness. I would too, just not on this surface and distance. River Nicole was a beast of a turf router/marathoner in the sim’s early days so the debut win at the shortest distance horses run 4.5 furlongs was a bit of a shock. Can he do it again with his very strong charge to the front he exhibited in his first race (68 SP)? It would be a clear case of Class winning above all if he does.

PP #10-IndySearch Trainer: Wyndaway14 Odds: 99/1

And here we have the underdog the fans love. Using the sire Kennedy, a new sire to the sim from the AP Indy line, and bred to an equally obscure dam sire, Class F retired mare BadohBad (Mesquite Flat). Mesquite Flat is a son of Broad Brush so certainly some class in the back breeding. Kennedy is acutally off to a nice start as a sire so maybe Wyndaway is on to something here. BadohBad never broke 90 SP in 33 career races, so IndySearch’s early success is more than a surprise. Have to quantify success as he’s put up a 56 and 61 SP in his two races so far. Would throw him away completely but that 61 came in a stakes race where he finished 4th of 8 and was looking like was about to make a move towards the front. Okay okay stretching a bit here, but it would not surprise me if he ended up in the middle of the field, which given his breeding and story, might be a victory in its own self.

PP #11-Excellent Out West Trainer: Kroth7 (bred by strikerich) Odds: 10/1

Well this one I have a little personal connection to. I owned the horse, Mae West, now a Class F retired mare out of Mt. Livermore, way back when she was still racing and I was the one who retired her. The resulting breeding sadly was not a success, so I’m very happy to see what looks like will be a successful breeding come from her. The sire Excellent Art comes from the Pivotal line and Mae West was all about the turf and certainly not sprints. So the resulting breeding screams turf right? Well maybe so in the future but for now dirt sprints rule for him. He’s won both career races, first with a 71 SP at five furlongs then at a sweet 80 SP in an 5.5 furlongs allowance. Certainly in with a great shot here in this race, can I take some credit if he wins it too? No you say? ….bummer.

PP #12-Benettown Trainer: Pecos197 Odds: 52/1

Another freshman sire used here, this time Beneteau, who is out of a Redoute’s Choice mare. If you don’t have a strong interest in real life horse racing, be sure to check out Redoute’s Choice for a breeding-has been a very nice sire in the sim. Beneteau is off to decent start to his career so far as well. He was bred to Thrill of the West, a Class G Manduro retired mare. Thrill had a unremarkable career getting a couple wins out of 21 career races. All but one on turf and going a mile or more mostly. So the new breeding was surprisingly tried on dirt first, and much like our friend IndySearch, found moderate success there. Won at first asking with a 55 SP at 5 furlongs then just like IndySearch jumped to a stakes race next time out, in fact the very same stakes race as IndySearch! Was the better horse that day finishing second with a 63 SP, but was fading badly at the end. That was a furlong longer than this race so distance not likely a factor here. Will IndySearch get his revenge here?

PP #13-Lancero-Trainer: Argentino5 Odds: 8/1

Argentino5 used a nice young sire Majestic Warrior (A.P. Indy) in this breeding to his Class G retired mare, Beef Beats Korn (Distorted Humor). BBK was a bit of a disappointment to his trainer I’m sure given that breeding. Just two wins out of a 22 race career with a top SP of 90. He did like the dirt though, but favored a mile more than sprints. But Lancero has a chance to redeem that breeding. Just one race so far but it was nice, a win and 74 SP at 5.5 furlongs in a full field of 14. Will the jump to stakes level racing be too much for him however?

PP #14-Tapped Humor: Trained: Rmathrick Odds: 6/1

The oddsmakers favorite and why not given the breeding of Tapit, another improving sire on Mike’s list to Class G “he-mare” Tip Your Waiter (Distorted Humor). Tip Your Waiter won at first asking then never again in a 13 race career that saw a career high SP of 99 and only one race (on the turf) below an 80 SP during that time. I like the consistency there and that should serve young Tapped Humor well despite getting just one win out of his broodmale(mare). Just the debut race to go on here which was won at 6 furlongs in an owner restricted MSW with a 72 SP. I think the oddsmakers might be a bit blinded by the breeding but that’s just my obvious bias talking. 🙂 He’s certainly in with a shot here.

Things I learned from looking at these horses: 1. Use Distorted Humor-he was used in at least three of the breedings here in one slot or another. 2. Is scratch breeding on the endangered species list? I expected to see a few scratch breedings here, but instead there were none. Given the now long sim’s history is that what we should be expecting to see more and more of?

Good luck to all the trainers on Saturday-May it be the first step to glory for all of you!