Monsters Square Off In Sand Castle Classic

The Sand Castle Classic

Grade 1     $6,000,000  ($3.6 million to the winner)

Ten Furlongs, Fast Dirt, Four Year Olds And Up

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The Sand Castle Classic will go off as the tenth race Saturday in Dubai on card that features $22,000,000 in purses and a number of huge graded stakes races.

But make no mistake about it.

The Sand Castle Classic is the richest of the treasures here this weekend in a country that is full of treasures.

A field of 14 will go to post in the ten-furlong Sand Castle Classic on the dirt. The field that is full of Breeders’ Bowl Classic winners and competitors and Triple Crown runners is a very special one. It‘s probably one of the most special ones you’ll see on this very special day of racing you will see this year, outside of the big three year old dirt races in America, the big turf races in Europe and Australia, and, of course, the Breeders’ Bowl. It‘s certainly the most special day of racing in Dubai for the year, one the world will have an eye on.

Of all the horses, and any of their winning streaks on the line here in the Classic, only one horse of the 14 will be trying to extend the only streak that really counts this weekend. He is not the favorite, by far, to win this race on Saturday. But should he win this race, this horse will set a record that could possibly never be touched in Derbyfever.

Fittingly enough, that horse, Distorted Storm, has drawn the number one post position in the Sand Castle Classic. He is not the headliner here this weekend, because of his odds, but people are talking about him.

He has won this race two years in a row. And, despite his 18/1 odds, make no mistake about this horse in this field. Distorted Storm is the two-time defending champion of the Sand Castle Classic, and even if some horse eventually duplicates his feat of winning two Sand Castle Classics, Distorted Storm will remain forever etched in Derbyfever history as the first horse ever to win this race twice–and in consecutive years.

Many have tried, and many have failed, to do what Distorted Storm has done. Thirteen others will be trying to start a streak on Saturday that may someday rival what the son of Distorted Humor has done the past two seasons.

There’s not a whole lot of early speed in this field. And most of the early speed that there is here is parked outside, in the outer barriers, which should make it a very interesting race to watch.

Here is the field for the twelfth running of $6,000,000 Sand Castle Classic, at ten furlongs, on the dirt, for four year olds and up, in Dubai this weekend.

(1)  DISTORTED STORM  (KY)                  $11,912,160

P. Chute                Owner: Latinlover Stables                (18/1)

Until approximately two minutes after the horses break from the gates in this race and it is proven otherwise, Distorted Storm is the king of all the kings here in Dubai this weekend. Some say the glory days are past for this six year old son of Distorted Humor out of the Storm Cat mare Away From Storm. But he is the only two-time winner of this race, having won it in 2010 and 2011, and they can never take distinction away from the horse from Latinlover Stables. Yes, his numbers in past years have been better than this year’s numbers. And yes, he’s only won twice since his most recent Sand Castle Classic victory, and those were only allowance and listed stakes wins. But if you think the old guy’s out of gas, look back four races. The horse who also has won a Breeders’ Bowl Classic ran a 117 speed figure when he finished second in the Grade 2 Bob Hope International in Arkansas on the first day of October last season. He competed in four graded stakes since last year’s Sand Castle Classic, finishing second in two of them. Don’t count this guy out yet. That 117 was a monster number for a six year old, one who has been through the Derbyfever wars and usually comes out smelling like a rose more often than not. It was the second highest speed figure of his career, equaled only by his 117 speed figure in his 2011 Sand Castle Classic win and topped only by a 118 he ran in his first Sand Castle Classic win in 2010. He is not only a two-time winner of this race but a true class act in every sense of the word, and he’s probably the sentimental favorite here this weekend.

(2)  MR. HISSY FIT  (AUS)                   $1,215,960

H. Harzheim                   Owner: Corza Stables                   (21/1)

Mr. Hissy Fit is owned by Corza Stables, and he is the second longest shot to win this race, at odds of 21/1. He is also one of three Australian-breds here trying to get their country’s first win in the big race in the desert. Mr. Hissy Fit, winner of eight of his 18 career races, is a six year old son of Hussonet, who also has Wild Again and Unbridled’s Song back there in his scratch breeding. He’s extremely lightly raced for a six year old. At least that was my first impression when I saw his numbers. He started his racing career back in 2008, when he raced once the whole year, and then he picked it up again in 2009, where he raced once all of that year. He raced only three times in 2010, before he began a regular parade of going to the track. And what a parade it’s been. Mr. Hissy Fit is the winner of three graded starts, and they all came this year. He strung together all of those wins from June 11 to September 3 of 2010, when he won the Grade 1 Barry Foster, the Grade 1 Baggio Special and the Grade 1 Bob Woodward Memorial. Quite a tear for Mr. Hissy Fit, and he was throwing around some monster speed numbers at that time. He hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since his win in the Bob Woodward Memorial. His best finish, in fact, in his last five times at the track was the last time out, when he finished third in a 10.5-furlong allowance event in Tazmania. Mr. Hissy Fit doesn’t come in here in the best form of his career, after disappointing defeats starting with the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup last season. He’ll have to regain his mid-season form of 2010 if he’s to be competitive in this group.

(3)  TOO MANY LARRY  (KY)                   $3,348,462

G. Harmon             Owner: Otistaylor Stable Group             (*5/1*)

Too Many Larry was favored to win last year’s Breeders’ Bowl Classic, but he was upset there by Twist Twist, who also beat him in the race before that, the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup. Too Many Larry is favored again here in Dubai this weekend. In fact, he was installed at the 5/1 morning line co-favorite here, along with his nemesis, Twist Twist. The six year old scratch-bred son of Unbridled’s Song (who also has Alydar and Seattle Slew in his pedigree) really had his best year in 2010, when he won some monster races while throwing around some monster speed figures (121 and 120 definitely qualify as monster speed figure numbers. Like Mr. Hissy Fit, Too Many Larry has three grade 1 wins, two in 2010 and one in 2011. He threw that 121 speed figure in his win in 2010 Jockey Guild Gold Cup. Two races later in December, he threw a 121 speed figure in a Blazing Saddles Residency Listed Stakes win. His form is somewhat off from 2010. After all, it would be hard to keep up with the kind of numbers he was throwing around that year. But he hasn’t tailed off very much as a five and six year old the last two seasons. Since finishing fourth in last year’s Sand Castle Classic, he has run in seven graded races, and he’s picked up a check in every single one of them. His numbers peaked in 2011 when he threw a couple of 115 speed figures in his Grade 1 CA Classic win and again in the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup, where he finished second to Twist Twist. That horse has been the thorn in his side of late. Too Many Larry has come so close, so many times, in so many graded races, it’s not even funny. He loves to run near the back of the pack, and that’s probably where you’ll see him this weekend, before he launches his rockets with his patented late stretch runs. He finished third in last year’s Breeders’ Bowl Classic, coming from 17 lengths off the pace and just missing by ¾ of a length. Wow! Too Many Larry knows how to make it exciting late, that much is certain, and given his recent form, expect him to make it exciting in deep stretch this weekend. This horse has a tremendous late kick. Watch him late on Saturday. He might just break his strong of close calls and take this race down for his owner, the Otistaylor Stable Group.

(4)  BOISDERBYBOUND  (KY)            $416,660

B. Friedrich               Owner: Boble Stables                (23/1)

Someone has to be the longest shot in this race, and the morning line odds makers have awarded that particular distinction to Boisderbybound, at 23/1. The four year old son of Tiznow has Danzig and Alydar in his scratch-bred pedigree, and he comes in here with only 13 career starts. But he’s made the most of them, winning some fairly impressive races in his brief career on the track. He won three of his first five races to kick off his career, before he tried his luck in the Arkansas Derby Lock Prep last season. He wasn’t ready for that group. But, then he suddenly found his form in top three finishes in the Grade 2 Buckeye Derby, the Grade 1 Clerk Of Scales and the Grade 1 Travelers Stakes. He finally found the graded winner’s circle back in September of last season, when he was shipped up to Ontario for the Grade 3 Northern Derby. Check out his speed figure in that race. He popped a big old 117 number for his connections, Boble Stables, while winning that nine-furlong race. In his final two starts as a three year old last season, he accumulated enough points to compete against the older horses in the big races. But then came three off the board finishes in the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Mile, the Grade 1 Japan Dirt Cup and the Grade 3 Steel Pier in New Jersey. While his speed numbers dipped significantly after his only graded win of his career last September, you can draw a line through his last start. He was coming off more than a two-month layoff. The Tiznow colt’s numbers of late don’t compare favorably with the group he’ll be facing in Dubai this weekend, but I have a feeling this won’t be the last time you’ll see this horse in this particular race. He might be a very long shot here, but he should improve considerably here in this spot, after that warm-up race last time out. I have a feeling you might want to keep an eye on this guy. He is capable of jumping up and throwing a monster speed figure, despite his relative inexperience compared to the rest of this field.

(5)   HAIL THE THUNDER   (KY)      $862,280

D. Lakencher           Owner: Phillipj’s Comeback Stables         (14/1)

The only filly in this race, Hail The Thunder, is a four year old daughter of Thunder Gulch. She’s only raced 12 times, so this might be a really good time for her to tackle the boys, while she‘s fresh. With Unbridled and Hail To Reason back there in her pedigree, she can definitely get this ten furlongs. She’s already done it twice, in two very prestigious races against her gender. She won the Grade 1 Players Club National Oaks in New York, and immediately after that, she won the Grade 1 Birmingham Oaks in Upper New York last season. She beat some really impressive groups in both of those. She threw 111 (career-high) and 108 speed figures in those races. She won a listed stakes after that, before she ran into some disappointment towards the end of last season when she finished sixth in the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff. She finished sixth there in her first try against older fillies and mares, but that wasn’t a bad finish for her, and she was gaining a lot of ground late. Hail The Thunder is another one who likes to come from behind, wayyyyyy behind, and kick it into gear in deep stretch, like she did in the only two graded wins of her career. Hail The Thunder took her act to the West Coast last time out. That was on March 10, which makes this quite a fast turnaround for her. She finished second in the Grade 1 Original Margaritaville, another prestigious race. And yes, she was gaining ground late there again. This filly is going to love this ten furlongs this weekend. She could be the first filly to ever win this race, and with only 12 starts under her belt, that would be extremely impressive, indeed. I think if she does that, you can start whispering, “Super Filly”. She’s won five or her 12 starts, and finished second or third five other times. The only time she hasn’t picked up a check in a race was when she ran in the Distaff. Not bad, not bad at all.

(6)   CONFIDENTLY WRONG  (AUS)       $894,860

Z. Edwards       Owner: Desperado Stables         (10/1)

Here’s a live one, if there ever was one. From Desperado Stables comes Confidently Wrong. Check his past performance charts carefully. Confidently Wrong worked his way into the Bluegrass Derby where he was a hard-charging third. If you watched that race, you got the feeling that the four year old son of Encosta De Lago just ran out of ground there. He’s a deep closer, and that’s going to help him here, if he can get some fast fractions to run at. After the Derby, he was never quite the same horse, especially after a lot of people had him figuring prominently in the New Yorker, the longer third leg of the Triple Crown. That was the beginning of the end for him as a three year old. But his connections were smart. They started giving him longer rest periods after his debacle in the Louisiana Derby last season. Since then, he’s won four in a row, and his speed numbers just keep climbing. From 106 to 111 to 111 to 115 in his last start, a win in the listed nine-furlong Fort Knocks Dirt Route. Right before that, he won the Grade 1 Toilet Scrubbers Anonymous Handicap at 9.5 furlongs. His two wins before that were listed stakes wins at ten furlongs. Confidently Wrong is rounding into form at just the right time here, and he could definitely be a good upset pick in this spot. He’s hot, his speed figures are climbing, and he’s definitely a horse who’s loving being a four year old. Watch him. This horse is very dangerous here, and so are his connections. That 10/1 number should be much lower on Confidently Wrong.

(7)  SEATTLE IN AWE  (KY)       $1,372,481

G. Ayso      Owner: Ks00003 Stables     (9/1)

Here’s yet another scratch-bred in a race that is chock full of them. Seattle In Awe started running as a three year old, and he’s got 28 starts. The six year old son of Awesome Again was running much longer distances at the beginning of his career than the ten furlongs he’ll see here this weekend, but he’s come down in distance since then. And he’s been doing well. He’s got Seattle Slew and Alydar back there in his pedigree, so this ten furlongs should be exactly what he loves, as far as distance goes. Seattle In Awe was doing well at 11-14 furlong graded stakes early on, but he has done much better since he was dropped down in distance from 9-10 furlongs–at least in the speed figure department. He won the Grade 3 Skipping Away last March, a nine-furlong race, and he did it with a 113 speed figure. That matched a career high for him. Two starts later he romped in the Grade 1 Movieland Starlet, winning by 2 ½ lengths after being behind by almost 11 lengths at one point in that race. He popped an eye-opening 114 in that race. This horse loves to come from behind. He’s done exactly that in almost every one of his recent starts. He’s coming off another come-from-behind effort in his last start, an allowance tune-up back on February 28 in America’s heartland, Missouri. He came off a two-month layoff to win that race, so watch out. Second start off a layoff. It could be the charm for Seattle In Awe.

(8)  MR. FIX IT  (IRE)          $866,233

H. Eisen           Owner: The Empire Stables        (10/1)

Mr. Fix It hails from The Empire Stables. He’s one of two Irish-breds in this race trying to win the big one in Dubai for Ireland. He’s a four year old son of Master Craftsman out of the Sadler’s Wells mare Across The Sunrise, so you might think this one would like turf more than dirt. Not so. He started off his career on the turf, in fact, before his connections really didn’t like what they were seeing. So off he went to the dirt as a late two year old, and he showed a dramatic rise in speed figures there. He avoided the Triple Crown, but when he hit the graded stakes trail finally in August of last year, he hit it big. In his first graded try, he won the Grade 1 Travelers Stakes. He beat a few horses there that he’ll run into this weekend in Dubai. He just missed winning the Grade 1 Duct Tape Special right after that, finishing second. He threw a career-high 112 speed figure there. After that his connections placed him aggressively, against older horses, where he just finished outside the top five all three times. He ended his three year old season last year with sixth place finishes in both the Breeders’ Bowl Classic and the Grade 1 Japan Dirt Cup. After that he took some time off from the races, before he came back in the Grade 3 Khartoum Challenge II. Last time out, Mr. Fix It threw a 110 speed figure in a really easy allowance win here in Dubai. In fact, his last two races were here, so if familiarity with the track means anything, Mr. Fix It’s got that particular base covered. He’s 10/1 in this spot, and he uncharacteristically showed quite a bit of early speed. He’s never been a real deep closer, preferring to hang around mid-pack until he makes his move, but last time out, he was facing a much easier group than he’s used to. He got caught up in a speed duel, and he still prevailed, rather easily in fact. He might be a live one here for The Empire Stables. He’s coming back off a quick turnaround, having last raced on March 10. That might be a concern, but that was really just a tune-up for the big race in Dubai this weekend.

(9)  OVERDOZE  (KY)       $1,442,340

M. Perez      Owner: Tees Whisper Stables       (13/1)

If there’s a big race around, you can bet that Tees Whisper Stables is probably going to have a horse in it, somewhere, somehow. It’s like having a big race, and Pletcher isn’t there, or Baffert isn’t there, or O’brien isn’t there. That’s how weird it would be if you didn’t see a Tees horse in a race of this magnitude. And what Overdoze brings to this race is something there’s very little of here, and that’s legitimate speed on the front end. The four year old son of Unbridled’s Song, with Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew back there in his pedigree (wow, how regal is that?) has tons of early speed, and you can take it to the bank that this horse is more likely than not going to provide some fast early fractions here in Dubai this weekend. He’s only got 16 races, and he’s won only six of them, with one second. But Overdoze has already amassed more in earnings than most of the other four year olds in this race. He’s got a ton of class, both in his veins and on his past performance chart. Two huge wins in the Arkansas Derby Lock and the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Mile provided most of those earnings. Overdoze can come up huge when he really has to, when the big races are on the line. And while he definitely brings a ton of speed in here, this colt might have trouble with this ten furlongs. He’s only been this distance once before, and that was in the biggest three year old dirt race in America, the Bluegrass Derby. He finished seventh there. It was the one of only two of his early races (the other was a maiden special weight race–his debut, in fact) where he actually didn’t control the pace most of the way. This guy can fly early, and with so little early speed in this race, his best move might be to try to steal it on the front end. This colt is legitimate, but his lack of experience at this distance could hurt him here. He won the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Mile last year, doing this exact same thing–controlling the tempo and leading the whole way. But that was eight furlongs, and this is ten, and there’s a huge difference. Watch Overdoze carefully early on. If he gets a good break and gets loose on the lead, he might have a real shot here to do some damage. I don’t know if that means he’ll win. But if he’s sharp, he might just steal at least a piece of this race. His career high speed figure was a 115, and that was on Breeders’ Bowl day. But this ten furlongs is a huge question mark for Overdoze.

(10)   PRUSSIAN   (AUS)              $2,158,880

M. Kidder              Owner: Bush League Stables          (8/1)

Bush League Stables sends out the Aussie-bred Prussian this weekend in Dubai. Like Overdoze, the five year old son of Hussonet out of the A.P. Indy mare A Fire Inside, might have a bit of trouble with this ten furlongs. In his 33 career starts, he’s run ten furlongs or more a total of seven times, and he’s only won one of those. That was an open allowance event over a year ago, in February of last year. He doesn’t possess a whole lot of early speed, but he has won some pretty nice races in his career. But unlike many of these, he has yet to pull in that first elusive grade 1 win. And that sticks out like a sore thumb on this guy’s resume, when you compare it to the others in here. He’s impressive, and he’s pulling some pretty impressive speed numbers, but most of those speed numbers came at nine furlongs. His best speed figure at ten furlongs is a 110, and that came in the 2010 Breeders’ Bowl Classic where he finished a very respectable fourth. Once this guy gets over nine furlongs, he sort of hits the wall. And that could spell trouble for him here in Dubai this weekend. This horse, and his connections, are a class act, that much is certain. But can he get the ten furlongs required of him, especially against a field of this depth and magnitude? This is a huge race packed with long distance monsters, yet the odds makers have made him 8/1 here. It’s because, despite his distance disadvantage, he somehow manages to at least pick up a check in most of the really big events he’s run in. This horse knows how to get the money, having accumulated over $2.1 million in earnings, despite having hit the board in less than half of his 33 races. He always shows up, and he’s rarely beaten badly, but ten furlongs? That’s a lot to ask of Prussian, especially against this bunch. He might just pick up a piece of the pie here though.

(11)  TWIST TWIST  (KY)             $4,014,446

S. L. Ledwith         Owner: Willyam13 Stables            (*5/1*)

Twist Twist was last season’s surprise horse, with his win in the Breeder’s Bowl Classic. It’s not that he was such a surprise, when he won that race (from the 14 hole, no less), it’s just that he really has flown under the radar most of his career. He’s good, but we just didn’t know how good, until he ran huge late last year. Up until he won the Grade 1 Jockey Guild Gold Cup last season, he had run in only three graded races his entire career. The five year old son of Empire Maker out of the Rock Hard Ten mare Atowncalledbedrock really wasn’t well known for much of anything, outside of some pretty nice speed figures and a second place finish in the Grade 1 Movieland Shiny Cup last season, a race in which he controlled the pace much of the way before falling late to Seattle In Awe, whom he’ll see here this weekend. But he suddenly exploded onto the dirt classic racing scene when he scored in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup last season, before he really blew up when he took down the win in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic. This has been a magnificent job of training here by his connections, Willyam 13 Stables, in knowing when to pounce with this colt. He bided his time, he was patient, and his turned this guy loose at just the right time last season. In those two races mentioned above, he popped 117 and 115 speed figures, both of which are competitive with just about anything in this field. That’s why he’s the co-favorite here at 5/1. Last season was no fluke for this colt. It was his time, and he took advantage. He took over two months off from the races after his Breeders’ Bowl Classic win, and he’s run twice since then. He finished third in his comeback race, the Grade 3 The Heaven Stakes, and second in his last time out, a $73,000 allowance event in Dubai. The son of Empire Maker has a lot of early speed, legitimate speed, and he can run on the front end here, should he choose. Or he could just lay off the leader and pounce late, like he did in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic. This is a very serious horse, and he’s looking to add another big piece of hardware to his connections’ already prestigious trophy case. Circle this guy’s number in your program. He won’t mind breaking from the outside. That’s what he did in the Breeders’ Bowl. Not a problem for this guy–at all. This horse could take down his second huge win on the world stage in a matter of five months’ time. How huge would a win here in Dubai be come awards time for Twist Twist, who a little over eight months ago was a horse that hardly anyone had heard of? Talk about your magical ride! This guy has had the best of it lately.

(12)  CHINOOK DOWN  (IRE)         $1,275,566

H. Cain          Owner: New Slew Lodge         (10/1)

It took quite a while, but Chinook Down took down his first graded win only two starts ago. For the five year old son of Rock Of Gibraltar, who started his career on the turf, he really doesn’t have that much graded stakes experience, and sometimes, that’s not such a bad thing in these races. Look at Twist Twist, the favorite here this weekend in Dubai. When he won the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, he only had one graded win on his resume, too, before he almost became Horse Of The Year by winning the Classic. Chinook Down is eerily similar to Twist Twist in that he has avoided the wear and tear of big races. It’s not that his connection were scared. It’s just that his numbers weren’t quite up there with the rest of these, so why bother? And then it suddenly happened. The horse who couldn’t pop anything higher than a 110 in his entire career (and he was doing exactly that speed number quite a few times–it seemed that was his ceiling) suddenly broke through on Christmas Eve with a 113 and snagged the Grade 2 DPCD Classic, where he got up late to win by a head. Sometimes that’s all it takes for a horse to suddenly burst upon the world stage and take it by storm, like Twist Twist did when he won the Classic. It’s just weird that there are so many similarities between these two horses, Twist Twist and Chinook Down. I know, I know. One’s a Breeder’s Bowl Classic winner, and one seems to be just a Grade 2 winner who wants in the club. But these horses are more alike than you think they are. But I think it’s because their connections are smart, and they’ve been around a while, and they know when the time is right to strike. And when they do, their horses jump up and make a big impact. It’s what the game is all about, in real life and here in Derbyfever. Knowing when the time is right, and striking. I may be wrong about Chinook Down, okay? Maybe he isn’t ready. But I’m just seeing way too many similarities here to tell you to totally discount this horse. Don’t discount him. It might be his time. We’ll see this weekend. He’s a deep closer who likes to run from behind. And ten furlongs seems to be the perfect distance for him. Why shouldn’t he win this race? He’s got just as much a shot as any in here, from where I’m sitting. And right about now, I really wish I had looked at this field more carefully, before I didn’t pick this horse in that contest over on the main board. Seriously, y’all. Watch this one.

(13)   GO GENTLE   (IRE)                   $854,213

T. Tippett              Owner: Dixiedotco Racing          (10/1)

Go Gentle is Irish-bred, one of three in this race, and unlike the one just to his inside in post 12, Chinook Down, Go Gentle does have quite a bit of stakes experience, and he has been there, and he has done that. In fact, at 41 races, he’s just about the most raced horse in this field, I think. When you give him a first look, it appears that maybe his best days are behind him, but if you know his connections, you know that they don’t enter many races thinking they won’t, or can’t, win them. This one’s from Dixiedotco Racing, whose reputation as one of the best trainers in the game is well known. His speed numbers aren’t that impressive this year, and he does seem to be slowing down a bit in that department. He’s a six year old son of Dylan Thomas, with Mill Reef and Northern Dancer back there in his breeding. That might sound real turfy to you, like it does to me. But I’ve seen scores of these horses spend their entire careers spinning their wheels on the turf, when they really prefer the dirt. Dixiedotco didn’t beat his head against the wall very long, trying to figure out where he belongs. He got four turf starts, in the beginning of his career, and it was off to the dirt, where his speed figures immediately started rising. And he started winning. That’s how good these connections are. They don’t waste a whole lot of time making their horses run on surfaces they don’t want to run on. If something doesn’t work, they try something else, and that’s one of the reasons that, despite his dip in speed figures as a six year old, this horse is still winning, and he’s still picking up checks, And he probably wouldn’t be here if Dixiedotco didn’t think he had a chance. This field doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed in it, okay? That’s pretty obvious. This horse does possess a ton of exactly that, early speed. He’s tried to steal races on the front end before, and he’s come very close quite a few times doing exactly that in big races. This is one you might want to watch early, to see if he can hang on late in the tenth furlong of this race. He’ll be somewhere around the leaders at the end, that’s for sure, IF he runs his usual race on the front end, where he likes it a lot.

(14)   PRENZLAUERBERG  (KY)            $919,554

Q. Cassel             Owner: Platero Y Yo                   (9/1)

To say that Prenzlauerberg is blessed with a lot of early speed is quite the understatement. This four year old son of Zensational out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Papito has more “1’s” in the first two or three calls of his races than you can shake a stick at. And he’s been in quite a few big races, for a lightly raced four year old with only 19 career starts. But he’s up against it here. Last season, he really blossomed as a three year old. He won the Grade 2 Labatt’s Ontario Oaks, and later on, he broke through with a tough stick-it-out win against his age group in the Grade 1 Duct Tape Special. Look deeper, though. This horse came oh so close quite a few times in some really big races, and he was usually involved very early on with some real beasts of the game in his efforts. He got to the Breeders’ Bowl Classic as a three year old, and that’s not easy to do. He didn’t do well there, but he was involved early on, as I expect he will be today. Whether he can keep up that massive speed for ten furlongs, that’s the question for Prenzlauerberg. Look at some of his races. The Eddie Haskell, the Japan Dirt Cup, the Saints Handicap, I mean, the list just goes on and on. This horse can run with the best of them for about 8-9 furlongs, and then he sometimes has a tendency to hit the wall, as far as distance goes. Add to that the fact that he’s breaking from the 14 hole, and he could be in trouble here. He’s going to have to break quickly here, he’s going to need the lead, and he’s going to need that rail to save ground–if he’s to have any sort of chance against this group. You just never know. He could run a 114 like he did in the Duct Tape Special, and he could open up a big, insurmountable lead and win, IF he’s on his game. But this field is soooo deep, and sooo good, that Prenzlauerberg will really need to bring his “A” game to take this race down. Look for his number to be called early–and often–on the lead. Can he hang on at the end? That’s the big question for the horse from Platero Y Yo.