All Aboard The Derby Train! Next Stop – The Lane’s End

14 horses and trainers have visions of roses, but the starkreality is that today, the dream will be over for the vast majority who do notpast the numerous tests presented in the 9 furlong Lane’s End, a Grade II$500,000 contest for 3yo colts. There will be time for one more contest for each of these fine foalsbefore the first Saturday of May, but only a select few will be in position tomake a Derby Lock race, let alone the select 20 of the Derby field itself.

As is my tradition in speculative endeavors such as this, Itransform myself into a wellspring of doubt.  My powers lie not in guessing the future, but intodissecting the past to find what the reasons are for what we see today.  Kind of like a Shell Answer Man butturned inside out.  Am I jealousthat I don’t have an entrant worthy of this race?  Of course!  Trynot to let that devalue my skepticism. I suspect that all 14 entrants are viable Derby contenders…but I will predict that none of them will win today. 

And I will be right on 13 counts.

The hopefuls:  

 

BOARD PASSION already has a nice win at 9.5 furlongs and wasstakes placed in his last outing… “bmoney” is pressing his star into action ontwo weeks rest for reasons which should be apparent to you astute readers.  It could happen – but the bounce factormight be counterproductive.

STEVIEBOY is following a steady regimen of Listed Prep,Graded Stake, rinse and repeat. The results have been promising – and both speed figures and pedigreesuggests the derby distance will not be a hindrance.  “cityminer” breaks the cipher here with a second consecutiveGraded race, but time is running out – his current #28 ranking is not going tohold without some significant notches on his stakes points belt.  To be continued?

BOOBIRD has a lot going for him, the least of which istrainer “goody”, a Derby-inflected pedigree, tactical speed, well-spaced races,and improving speed figures.  Hedoes NOT have a Graded placing as of yet. It will likely take a 1-2 finish today to earn a berth in a Lock race tokeep hope alive.

RESONATES is exactly what this horses last race did withinthe 3yo dirt community… I mean really, who earns a 104 SP in his route debut,without even winning the race? Everything about the pride of “seedlysub” is unorthodox… despite threeexcellent Graded races on the resume, this Roses In May colt has only onevictory… and not in a Maiden race. I wouldn’t be shocked if he pops another big number and maintains hisN2L status right into the big dance.

FLIP FLOP TIP TOP is like the Bizarro STEVIEBOY… ranked #26but starting to level off…  couldbe the others catching up in maturity, could be the distance, or mysteriousforces unknown to man and beast (not saying which one I am).  FFTT clearly has been a success for“ramo” so far, with a 99 SP in an 8f G3 race, but the SIM would be turnedupside-down and set on fire if this son of HENNY HUGHES x DANSILI x MR. GREELYproved best at 10f… unless he is the chosen freak of all simulated freaks.  Henny advocate “desperado” must beproud and jealous all at the same time.

ARMAGEDON is owned, bred, and trained by…”armagedon”.  Don’t be fooled by the 19-1 morningline – this horse clearly likes the 9f distance as displayed in his previousallowance win, the first of 4 dirt tries. DEEP IMPACT x KRIS S. = Derby pedigree.  Overflowing with promise, but it literally is the end of theworld for this one’s chances if he doesn’t get it done today.

ITS A GOOD THING was not always clearly that – he recentlywon a race which revealed his CPU value to be less than 225… but he’s gettinggood at the right time and is well rested for “adschus”.  It’s a big jump from listed to gradedstakes, and it doesn’t help that he was saddled (pun intended) with a jockeywho is 0 for 44 on the season. Perhaps we’ll see him in Baltimore for the Middle Jewel…that’s not a badthing…

SILVER RALPH came to life when “ajhsstable” stretched himout to a mile, and it has been mostly happy times since then.  Perhaps sensing the urgency of thematter, Ralphieboy has already run 4 times in a span of 9 weeks, with todaymaking start #5 in only 12 weeks time. Sitting at #73, he’s got to hope for a win today and a sensible breatherbefore the big dance… and sweat out the entry box.  To the moon, Alice…

GHOST TO GHOST has not won a race in quite some time, but itwas a G3 at a mile which helps him achieve a comfortable #39 spot in therankings.  Sensibly trained by“rrlogans”, his early foot has been rateable and he stands a solid chance onthe turnback and class drop from the always-tough Vermont is for LoversG1.  As always, GHOST TO GHOST willtry to go coast-to-coast.  If hepulls it off, a Derby day saddle towel he may boast (groan).

RAS EL HANOUT is on such a roll that even Bruce Waynedoesn’t have the tools to obstruct his path to the Derby.  The “super” superstar sits at #12 inthe 3yo classic ranks by virtue of an undefeated record on dirt, with twoeerily identical Graded Stakes wins…both at 8.5 furlongs, both with a 102 SP,both by a widening 1 ¾ lengths. The consistency is admirable but frankly, downright creepy.  Running machines like this may notrespond well to even the slightest change; in this case, an additional 100meters of real estate.  Logic saysit shouldn’t be a concern, but this is not Philosophy 101, this is the SIM.  Root for or against a super 3yo at your peril.

SACK A CAT scores before running by virtue of  the coolest name. “Masterm” used theturf to dirt angle to coax a 9f allowance victory out of the TALE OF A CATtrainee…but the double jump to Graded level is daunting.  Stranger things have happened in thegame, and there is always the spectre of Dr. Dipperlip’s Handicapping Serviceaffecting a race outcome, but there are only so many hours in the day forillicit injections and knee alignments…

FANTASTIC RULER is a lot like GHOST TO GHOST in that he’sbeen knocking heads with SIM elite for some time and has a G3 8f win on hisrecord to keep him relevant.  The“fastracing” speedball has rebounded well from a rough Breeder’s Cup showingbut bit off more than was chewable in the VIFL G1 last out… a commontheme.  Today’s bunch is not asaccomplished but we won’t be saying that tomorrow.  Now or never for #42 on the list. 

MAJOR ALEX has been a major pain in the wallet for much ofthe 2011 SIM crop throughout his career, and is the only horse in the fieldwith 3 Graded victories to boast.  “Jetchamp”has done a champion job at getting the DAIWA MAJOR sprint star to succeedaround two turns, but his 98 SP 4^th place effort last out in the Scamwas his first out of the money effort, ever.  This is a superior horse that may be reaching the limits ofhis comfort zone… but that may even be good enough to dominate at this level.  10 furlongs?   Maybe we’ll find out in a few months. 

STEELSHANKS has not cut any corners while quickly coming toprominence as “checkmate” used the traditional maiden-allowance-listed-gradedprogression to slide up to #46 in the rankings.  This is a logical next step after a solid 2^nd witha 99 SP next out, but I am sure the #14 post and abundance of speed in the racedid not please the connections. Like the runner to his left (we ARE running counter-clockwise from thegate), we’ll find out how far this son of FORESTRY really wants to go. 

My predictions:  2 Derby entrants from this field of 14.