Stayer’s Dash – 14 Furlong To Paydirt
This Saturday’s big-money feature race at Japan is the interestingly-named Stayer’s Dash, a lung-busting 14-furlong Grade II test on the turf course. I guess it’s called a “dash” because the true “stayer” horses in the Sim often go the full 2 miles, and this is a short little dash to those types… I just wish I had a horse that could remain on its feet for this long! But enough about my motley band of slowpokes; the Stayer’s Dash is what I’m supposed to be writing about…
This is the only fourth running of this event, but it has already proven to be one a top draw in the Sim, featuring several millionaires in each running. In 2009, The Oil Rules All took the inaugural Stayer’s Dash trophy home and went on to win a career total of over $5 million Sim Bucks. The 2010 renewal was taken by $6.5 million-dollar winner Red Fog. That one was back to try to snag the double last year, but finished 2nd to the dazzling wire-to-wire performance of Galilayo.
Who’s gonna be the star this year? An interesting 13-horse field is entered, including new long-turf sensation LEMONDROP MINI MOO. More about that one in a bit… Here’s the field, in post-position order…
ROUTE NINETY EIGHT goes off at 9/1 for icbomber5 of the always-loaded Empire stable group. This 4yo Street Cry colt is just now coming into his own; he’s had 5 consecutive solid stakes performances with 2 wins among them. Today will be his introduction to Graded company. Talented colt, but lots to prove here.
BAAN BAA is a 20/1 outsider from the bbudgies barn. The 4yo Holy Roman Emperor colt ran pretty well in middle-distance races vs. Graded company last year, but his speed ratings in recent long races fall pretty short of what it seems will be needed to get anything done with this bunch.
KINGULEO is a 6yo veteran of the Graded turf wars going off at 8/1. He has one Graded win for the therion barn, and may be ready for a big effort at this distance. The Ivan Ivanisovich runner will need his best, but he should running well late.
DANCER THEATRICAL is a quick 5yo Theatrical product who likes to run on the lead and often stays right in the thick of things in Graded company at 16 furlongs. This “dash” might be just what the doctor ordered for the musse trainee, who goes off at a juicy 19/1.
EL SAMURAI goes off at 9/1 for trainer fpv and is a proven Graded Stakes runner, with a pair of wins. I’m inclined to ignore the low speed ratings on this King Kamehameha 5yo because they are his only 16f tries, and even the allowance win was on a “good” course. This one is certainly dangerous.
BURNT LAWN, winner of just over $2 million, had a brutally tough campaign last year with six consecutive Grade 1 tries. He won one of those and competed well in others, but showed signs of fatigue in his last three tries; turfking32 has eased his schedule a bit, with just one 2012 run so far. That was a minor-stakes win, but against a difficult field. Should be tough if he’s sharp after a nine-week break. The CPU gives him 8/1 respect.
PERFORMANCE ART comes in hot, with 5 wins in his last 6 starts. I’m guessing kevoman would have liked a nice rainstorm; his New Approach 5yo is 2-for-2 on soft stuff. Still, this guy is in the best shape of his life, and could fire big at 6/1.
THEYPULLMEBACKIN has tried Graded racing twice, and neither result has been pretty; hence the 17/1 odds. The Gone West 5yo will likely appreciate the shorter distance here, but the willzway42 trainee will need to run the race of his life to make a dent with this bunch.
HORSENSTEIN is one of those who might like to see an 18-furlong race in the Sim… His two graded-stakes wins were late-closing jobs in 16-furlong affairs. The rubiano06 trainee, a 5yo son of Big Brown, gets 15/1 odds and will need to get his mojo working a lot sooner than usual to make a dent here.
LEMONDROP MINIMOO, in just 6 turf starts, has stamped himself a major contender for year-end honors in this division. The gr8white trainee is 5-for-5 on dry turf, with a total winning margin of just over 28 lengths. Three of these wins were graded stakes facing some of the best around, and he slapped those guys pretty badly. Just how good IS this 4yo Lemon Drop Kid colt? The CPU makes him the 5/1 favorite.
BREYUGAR has only run in graded-stakes once but he won it, a Grade 1. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to re-conjure that magic since, no matter what level he tried. The baffster trainee, a 6yo by El Prado, will need to have a huge day to get involved here.
THE DOZENS appears to be the main competition to DANCER THEATRICAL up front in the early going. He just ran 28 lengths behind today’s favorite, but the shorter distance should help the 4yo Dynaformer colt hang on better here. This is reflected in the 7/1 odds for the thethumb07 trainee; this could be compromised if there’s a speed duel.
DANETHENAVIGATOR chased THE DOZENS to the wire last time out, 10 weeks ago. The 4yo Henrythenavigator colt is on the rise, but the long rest raises questions. The dannejaka2 trainee gets 8/1 odds, and has the ability to contend if he’s at the top of his game. Will he? Stay tuned…
Okay, I have consulted my golf-swing coach, my 3rd grade teacher, and Justin Bieber’s crystal ball… Let’s see what they say about this race.
LEMONDROP MINIMOO has all the look of a true superstar in the making, so I gotta go with this guy to win here.
PERFORMANCE ART looks the main competition.
Longshot DANCER THEATRICAL should be tough to catch.
Good luck all!