Rebel Yell – 3yo’s Take Their Best Shot
A talented group of 3yo’s is set for the Grade III 8.5-furlong Rebel Yell Stakes, the 14th race on this Saturday’s Arkansas racecard. Of course, it’s that time of year when hopeful trainers try their promising 3yo’s out in graded route racing in hopes of finding that all-too-rare Bluegrass Derby contender.
As a longtime player of this wonderful Sim, practically all the way back to the beginning in 1998, I’ve only been able to get one 3yo to the big dance in front of the spires… He finished far up-the-track, but it’s still darn exciting to get one good enough to make a run at it. Here are 14 colts, all looking to be “the next big thing”… Will any of these do that here? Which one? Good question! Let’s take a look at the PP’s and try to figure this one out:
VISIONARY LOGIC goes off at 16/1 for the goldsoundz barn. The Pollard’s Vision colt has won half his starts, but has come up short in three stakes tries. Has been raising his speed ratings lately, but will need to raise his game a good bit more to contend here.
US GALLON is a Corinthian colt who is still eligible for NW2L allowances, but has been 2nd in his last three tries and 2nd in 7 of his 12 lifetime starts. Trainer viceregent tried putting him much closer to the pace last time out, and he ran… You guessed it; 2nd. Maybe he’ll finish 2nd in his stakes debut here at 13/1, but it’s a tough task.
IDEAL KIRBY ran a lifetime-best speed rating in his stakes debut last time, but finished 4th. Trained by megabps, the Speightstown colt has run strongly in all of his route races, but this is likely the best field he’s seen yet. The CPU likes his chances and places him at 8/1.
CHANNARONG made his first six runs on the grass, then moved over to the main track. The Majestic Warrior colt has hit the board in all five tries since, including a fast-closing 2nd in a stakes. The shaghar1 trainee’s easy allowance win last time out was little more than a public workout, and it may have set him up for a big effort here at 13/1.
ZANDALARI makes his stakes debut after a very-easy allowance win last out in a faster time than CHANNARONG‘s but gets the same 13/1 odds, probably due to that lack of stakes experience. The Warrior’s Reward colt, trained by goody10, may have reached a plateau with the 90-91-90 speed figure pattern and will need to improve off that.
MELVILLE JP has proven to be a quick sprinter, but the 2-turns is a big question. A Pollard’s Vision product trained by blueskyday, he did hold on fairly well in a Grade 2 sprint last time; will need to stick with it much longer to be a factor here and pay off at 12/1.
MAMBO QUEST has a lot of router influence in his pedigree, and the Dubawi colt has already demonstrated that influence since lado moved him to dirt 3 starts back. The 13/1 shot tries tougher and will need a good bit of improvement in the speed-rating department.
BEFORE DAWN is ranked #14 in the 3yo Route division, and led nearly all the way in a very fast Grade 3 mile at Florida last time out. The justin-trained Unbridled’s Song colt has a Grade 1 win at 7 furlongs and should be right in the thick of things all the way around here. CPU makes him the 4/1 favorite and he gets a top-level rider.
WATTS goes off at 10/1 for trainer tcity. The Arch colt ran 3rd in his debut last March, and has not been beaten since. Now, though, he tries 2-turn racing for the first time. The names of tons of past champions can be seen in his pedigree, and he has even shown he can deal with grass racing. Just how good can this guy be? If he shows he likes 2 turns, the sky’s the limit… A 26% jockey is aboard for the trip.
SOFT SENSATION is a Street Sense colt from the waybil barn, going off here at 13/1. He’s won 2 of 5 starts and got caught late in his only 2-turn try last time out. He’s light on experience and figures to be one of many battling on the front end.
TIME FOR BUDA shows a lot of turf influence in his pedigree, and his first four starts were understandably on that surface; he did pretty well, but not anything to write home about. So, trainer juju tried the Dansili colt in a minor stakes at Malaysia. The resultant win was so impressive that the colt comes halfway around the world to take a swing at the Bluegrass trail. He’s 7/1 and has a real shot at this…
GREATDAYFORAMERICA is an Eskendereya colt, going off at 12/1 for trainer blankpoin1. This guy fizzled in his debut at 5.5 furlongs, but showed ability in winning 2 of 3 routes after that and was sent into a strong Grade 2 stakes with just 3 weeks’ rest. He fared decently in that effort (6th of 16), but failed to fire in an allowance in his most recent start. He’ll need to reverse his form to get anything done in this spot.
EARACHE is a veteran of only 4 starts, but has been impressive in each try, including a late-closer 3rd in a solid restricted stakes last time, just 3 weeks ago. The crackpot trainee gets 7/1 CPU respect, and this Giant’s Causeway colt could be tough if he handles the quick turnaround.
WHOLESOME TWIST took a good while to figure things out, but after a turf try the Sky Mesa colt returned to the dirt and reeled off a pair of 2-turn wins for holybull99. He goes off at 15/1 here as he tries much tougher, but he is one of just a couple deep closers and could benefit if the pace battle gets too hot.
Interesting bunch, a real handicapping puzzle…
I think the battle on the front end will cause most of the frontrunners to wilt under the pressure, and that the most-likely one to benefit from that scenario looks like TIME FOR BUDA, especially if he improves in only his 2nd dirt try.
BEFORE DAWN is the most-proven of the frontrunners and should hold on well into the stretch.
WATTS should also be banging away at the frontrunners all the way around, and should do well. He could win this thing, especially if he’s able to break free and get a clear lead, but I’ll be conservative and guess 3rd.
Good luck all!