Aussie-Bred Favored In Gr. 2 Moises Alou

Grade 2 Moises Alou Cap

8.5 Furlongs. Fast Dirt.

Belgium. Three Years Old (Open).

It might be the last shot for a lot of these here in Belgium this weekend in the Grade 2 Moises Alou Cap, the last shot to qualify for a Derby Prep Lock race, that is.

Quite a few of these are on the bubble, as far as the Derby Trail, but at least four have probably already locked up their “lock preps,” so to speak. All they really need is a fair finish here.

But for some it’s do or die time, especially for the ones who either have not run in a stakes or have done poorly in the only one(s) they have run in.

Lovesick Drinker (3/1), onwed by Desperado Stables, was a precocious Aussie-bred two-year old by Encosta De Lago out of the Distorted Humor mare Nothing But Love. As a two year old, he won or finished on the board in all six of his starts. He took almost two months off from the races, before he returned on February 4 to finish fifth in the Grade 3 Good Cow. He broke his maiden at first asking last season, and he went on to finish third in the Grade 3 Cryogenics Juvenile, and right after that he won the Grade 3 Cornstalk. Both of those were 8.5 furlong graded races, and on those performances alone last year, this colt is ranked 30^th in the three year old dirt male rankings in both the classic and long divisions. A win here should pretty much clinch him a spot in a Bluegrass Derby prep lock race. You can throw out that last start in the Grade 3 Good Cow, where he was gaining ground at the end but finished fifth. He was just warming up after a layoff there, and we’ll probably see more of Lovesick Drinker’s form here this weekend in Belgium.

Chief Rainmaker (5/1) has won five of his last six starts coming in here to Belgium this weekend. His only out-of-the-money finish during that time was when he finished fifth in the Grade 1 Sparkling Wine way back in early October of 2011 in New York. He did pretty well there, coming from way off the pace to finish fifth, beaten 4 ½ lengths. Despite the outcome there, that was a pretty decent effort by the scratch-bred son of Indian Charlie, who’s got Storm Cat and Mr. Prospector back there in his pedigree. This is a pretty nice colt that Dixiedotco has here in Chief Rainmaker. He’s got five wins in seven career starts, and he finished third once. He’s ranked 23^rd in the three year old dirt colt long and classic rankings, and he’s pretty much sitting right there on the bubble as far as getting into the Bluegrass Derby field of 20 goes. He still hasn’t popped a 100-plus speed figure yet in his career, but it might be his time here this weekend to do exactly that.

Brother Ben (5/1) is also one of those who is sort of sitting on the bubble, ranked at 39^th in the three year old dirt colt rankings for getting in the Bluegrass Derby. He doesn’t exactly need to win here, but a top three finish would almost certainly get him into one of the Derby Prep Lock races next month. A win would be nice, since it would give his connections the ability to call their own shots as to which prep they wanted to go to in April. The dark grey son of Elusive Quality out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Intentional Confrontation won four of his five two year old starts, including the $1 million dollar Grade 1 Sam’s Town Delta Jackpot. In his only two year old start he finished fifth in the Grade 3 Giant Slayer Classic in Denmark. He possesses a lot of early speed, but he flattened out badly in the stretch of the Giant Slayer Classic in his last start. He’ll be looking to rebound here in Belgium this weekend for his connections, Jet Stables. He’s yet to pop a 100-plus speed figure, but that’s more the rule for these young three-year old colts than the exception. He’s a high-quality performer, and he’ll probably rebound nicely here against this field.

Overindulgence (6/1) is a scratch-bred son of Smart Strike with Danehill and Nijinsky II back there in his pedigree. He started off his career on the turf, and he’s been raced exclusively outside of America so far. As a two year old, his best finish was probably his second place finish in the Grade 2 Nationwide Stakes. When he finished a badly beaten fourth in the Grade 3 Winter Favorite Stakes on the turf, his connections, Shamrock Stables, threw him on the dirt for the first time in his last start as a two year old, and his speed figures started to pop. He ran a couple of 90-plus speed figures in two of his three dirt tries, including a second place finish last time out in the Tout Ou Rien (All Or Nothing) Dirt Challenge last time out at a mile. He’s got a lot of early speed, too, and it’s pretty much imperative that he do well here in order to even have a shot at one of the Derby Lock Preps. He’s ranked 123^rd in the three year old males dirt classic division. Look for this guy to be on or near the lead early this weekend. The only question is whether he’s got the stamina to hold on late. This is a pretty nice, evenly matched field he’s facing here in Belgium this weekend, one that could chase him down late, if his early speed doesn‘t hold up. It’s his first graded try on the dirt.

Ghost Ninja, Candy Gone, and Tap Loudly are all breaking from the 1,2 and 3 posts, respectively, here in Belgium this weekend, and all are rated at 7/1 by the morning line odds makers.

Ghost Ninja (7/1) is a son of Ghostzapper out of the Forty Niner mare Forty Ninjas. This will be his first stakes try of any kind, when he takes on the field here in Belgium this weekend. Before his last start, he had yet to pop a 90 speed figure, but he was doing pretty well in allowance company. He’s only got five career starts so far, and he’s won two of them. That last start was not one of his wins, but it was certainly one of his more impressive efforts. He broke his maiden at first asking in Northern California, and he has raced exclusively in California since then. He has been climbing his way through the condition ranks for his connections, Conquest Farms, out west. In fact, two starts ago, he get the second win of his career when he popped an 89 speed figure and easily won a $59,000 NW2L allowance event. Last time out, he broke 90 in the speed figure department, when he threw a 96 in a second place finish in NW3L allowance. This is a pretty big step up he’s taking here into graded company, and if Ghost Ninja can somehow manage to break through here with his first graded win, well, that would go a lot towards his Bluegrass Derby chances. He’s still way behind in the rankings for three year old dirt males, but a win here could do a lot for Conquest Farms‘ chances to get to the Derby in May. He’ll try to take advantage of the early speed here that quite a few in this field seem to have. He’s a deep closer, or so it seems, from his past performance charts. If Ghost Ninja is taken back early, he can get a ground-saving trip on the rail and maybe, just maybe, make a run at these late.

Candy Gone (7/1) is a son of the Argentinian-bred Candy Ride out of the Gone West mare Garden Country. He wears the colors of Rodots Stables, and all he knows how to do is win. He’s a perfect 3-3 coming in here to the Grade 2 Moises Alou Cap, but like Ghost Ninja, he has yet to try any stakes company, graded or listed. He’s won twice at 6.5 furlongs and once at a mile. Here’s the impressive thing about Candy Gone. He’s never run anything lower than a 91 speed figure in any of his three starts, running 91,92, and 91. He’s run twice in New South Wales, and he’s run once in Newmarket, in the United Kingdom. That run at Newmarket, his only try at a mile, was on a dirt track listed as good. He’s a stalker type, preferring to lay just off the leaders, which could suit him well this weekend. There’s a lot of early speed in this race, and there are also quite a few deep closers, but with Candy Gone sort of stuck there in the middle, as far as riding styles go, he might be a very dangerous one here this weekend to keep your eye on. He’s breaking from the two hole, and that should help his chances somewhat in this group.

Tap Loudly (7/1) is a son of Roses In May, out of the Tapit mare Tap It For Me. He’s finished in the money in six of his seven starts, but he’s only got one win for his connections, the Light Bulb Conspiracy. He has finished second four times, however, and one of those second place finishes came last time out in a $35,000 allowance event in Louisiana on February 18. That’s a pretty quick turnaround for Tap Loudly. He’s been raced exclusively in America so far, and like quite a few of these, he’s never seen stakes company of any kind. But look at that last start of his. He popped a career-high 98 speed figure, which is just about the highest in the group, outside of the top couple of favorites here in Belgium this weekend. That speed figure represented a dramatic 16-point jump over his previous effort two weeks earlier. This colt could definitely be dangerous here, if he runs back to that number he put up last time out. You might want to keep an eye on the Roses In May colt from the Light Bulb Conspiracy here this weekend.

Viva La Revolucion (8/1) breaks out of the nine hole here this weekend in Belgium. He’s the other entry here from Shamrock Stables, and he’s an Aussie-bred son of Redoute’s Choice out of the Montjeu mare Like Spirals. He extremely lightly raced coming in here, having started only four times in his career, the second most lightly raced in this group of nine three year olds who all seem to have one aim, and one aim only–the Bluegrass Derby in Kentucky in May. One thing different about Viva La Revolucion from most of the rest of these–besides the fact that he IS lightly raced–is that he’s never raced in a sprint in his entire career. And with all the stamina in that Montjeu dam, why would he even try a sprint? He’s raced twice over a mile, once at 8.5 furlongs, and once at 9 furlongs in his four starts. He’s got just that one maiden win at a mile. And he’s got three seconds since then. Viva La Revolucion loves to drop in from out of the clouds, that is, he’s a deep closer, and that running style could very well work to his favor here. He’s breaking outside, so he can just take back early, settle in on the rail and save some ground, if he’s of a mind to. He has some pretty impressive speed figures coming in here, but he still hasn’t broken a 90 yet in that department, and that’s a bit of a worry. He needs a speed duel to develop in front of him here, so he can have some fast early fractions to run at late.

Dragon Saber (9/1) is a son of Hard Spun out of the Empire Maker dam, England’s Empire. Things looked pretty much on the up and up for him two starts back, when he busted his first 90-plus speed figure (93), when he won an eight-furlong allowance event in Northern Florida. It was his third win in five starts to begin his career, so his connections, Gotta Catch ‘Em All Stables, dropped him into listed stakes company for the first time in his sixth start of his career last time out. He showed a lot of speed early in the 8 furlong listed Your Palaces Dirt Special Stakes in Northern Florida, but something very unusual happened to him late in that race. He faded to tenth, finishing some 7 ½ lengths behind the winner. It was his first time finishing out of the top four in any race in his career. With all this early speed, he’ll probably try to jump out in front again, but he’ll really have to improve on that last effort, if he’s to do well here in Belgium this weekend. He was pretty much cruising along and looking like he would be at least a derby contender by this stage, right up until that inexplicable poor finish last time out. IF he can improve on that effort, he’ll probably need to win here just to make a derby lock prep–maybe not, with so many around to choose from. But a win here certainly would put him right back in the picture for the Derby chase.