Memorial by name future by talent

LA, The Double M Memorial-G2, 4yo+ M 9F Turf
race 4981.0510

This week we are in Louisiana for a 9f turf race. This is the sort of useless race that throws up horses that lack the class to run 10f or the speed to excel at a mile. There are a lot of specialist horses at this trip which is hardly run outside the USA.

This week on the stallion front we visit Lanwades Stud in Newmarket England. It is run by Miss K Rausing who does a very good job. She is the heir to those milk soup carton opening designs. Pull back peel and make a spout, but spurts all over the place instead!

She always has a wide range of sires at the stud which is good news for breeders and is the proud owner of one of the strongest female families in the stud book. I like this stud for two reasons the open minded approach to standing stallions (not the Coolmore all eggs in one Danzig basket approach). The other is the competition which I have won prizes in on a couple of occasions including last year!

Archipenko has a great pedigree on both sides. He is by Kingmambo though that is not necessarily a positive given his record as a sire of sires. He is from the female family of Sadler’s Wells, Fairy King and Nureyev. Though with that you get those duds Jade Robbery and Numerous as well. He is also closely related to Blame. Other negatives are he was getting injured a lot whilst racing (never a good sign for a Kingmambo horse) they tend to pass it on. The fact Coolmore cut him loose as well is a negative. His race record does not stand out on paper a sole grade 1 win in Hong Kong as an older horse. No graded success at two and a sole grade 2 3yo only win at three. Overall you cannot get excited by him at all. Any breeding should get as much Rough Shod blood in as possible especially via Fairy King and his brothers Sadler’s Wells and Tate Gallery. In truth I see many sires with better credentials than him not getting a winner in the sim. I rate him at around a 0.75% stakes winner to runner ratio.

Aussie Rules he has done well at stud so far given the resources at his disposal. A move to here from Coolmore should be seen as a massive positive as well. He will be bred to better mares and more genetically compatible mares as well. He was a good racehorse a graded winner at two and a classic and open age grade 1 winner at three. He on paper should have done well as a stallion and so far has done better than most. His first runners have just turned four and he has produced a graded winner from both crops to race so far and another 5 listed winners and many more black type horses. This is a good return given book sizes and he would have to be seen as a 3.5% stakes sire with around 1.25% graded class. He breeds horse that can mature quickly but also has shown he gets horse capable of winning in stake’s company at up to 10f so is versatile. Inbreeding to the mare Last Second would be of serious interest. He is a very capable and value for money sire.

Hernando has been a top sire for a long time though I doubt he will be at stud beyond this year. He has sired over 19 graded stakes winners at stud including 3 classic winners which is no mean feat. He is also doing ok as a broodmare sire now and should be expected to improve in time. He has already had a classic placed runner in this field. He is one of the major sources of stamina though several of his broodmare offspring have shown a lot of speed. 15% black type horses to runners is top class and he should be a 6%+ stakes sire in the sim. I can think of some 15%+ sim sires who a far worse than him!

Selkirk he is another sire that is likely to be retired very soon. He has been top class for years now and is one of the worst rated sires in the sim. He has sired 43 graded stakes winners in his time at stud including classic winners. His record as a broodmare sire is starting to look nice with 16 graded winners and with mares in both the Juddmonte and Aga Khan stud books that is likely to improve. He offers European breeders something different than the normal and with his sire being Sharpen Up is the ideal candidate for all those Danzig line sires. He is the sort of sire that will do well when the new real time data kicks in the sim. I would rate him at around 7%+ stakes winners to runners with at least one top class each year.

Sir Percy was a top class racehorse unbeaten grade 1 winner at two and classic winner at three. His only flaw was not to win an open age grade 1. Though ask any English player they will tell you his trainer stopped training the moment he passed the post first in The Derby. He had every right to do well at stud with added bonuses he is from the Never Bend male line and traces to an outstanding Moller’s family think Tenesso. He did not get supported to well at the start and has picked up a lot in subsequent years, not many sires have better books of mares after their first crop until the fifth crop. He is fully booked for 2012 and sold very well in New Zealand recently with his first yearlings. A lot of his first crop improved with racing and it would be no surprise to see him have several graded stakes winners this year. He is a sire that is on the rise. How to rate him well at present similar to Aussie Rules but he could well go on to rank highly. It is worth noting he has had black type horses from both Hernando and Selkirk mares already.

BUDA ROCKS (KY) ROCK HARD TEN x SEATTLE SLEW x SADLER’S WELLS

Rock Hard Ten is a sire that has not done so well at stud. Only two graded winners from his last two crops. In truth nothing about his race record or time at stud suggest he should be much better rated any better than Archipenko. It does appear that he has been downgraded considerably and rightly so. This horse was a top class 3yo and really likes this trip. A year ago you would really fancy this horse in here. Since then all his graded starts have been poor. He is though a very good allowance ungraded stakes horse at that level he would have a great chance. Strange though it may seem the grade counts against him and I find it hard to see him in the top three at the end of the race.

PHANTASEA (KY) KINGMAMBO x GREEN DANCER x ROUND TABLE

The interesting thing to note with Kingmambo is how few grade 1 winners he has had out of Sadler’s Wells line sires. He has done very well with Storm Cat male line horses and interestingly Dynaformer not a match made in soundness or temperament heaven for sure. He is fast becoming a leading broodmare sire. This horse is really consistent only once in his last 19 starts has he not recorded a triple digit speed figure and that was on an off track. He can handle the class and loves the trip all bonuses here. With all these positive factors in his favour he has to be considered as more than capable of making the frame.

CHANGER (KY) SMART STRIKE (CAN) x NUREYEV x BOLD RULER

There is one interesting fact about Smart Strike as a sire of his last 43 graded stakes winning offspring 10 have been at 9 or 9.5f. That is a large amount. It kind of throws a light on why he does better in the US than outside of it. Another factor to consider with him is his age he is not going to be around fro to much longer being 20 this year. This is a specialist 9f horse which is no surprise given the statistics above. Of his last four graded races three have been off the board but the other was a good win. He is obviously not getting any younger this horse so wear and tear could be taking its effect. The question is which horse turns up at his best he can win but would you want to put money on it.

REDOUTE’S CAT (AUS) REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x AWESOME AGAIN CAN) x STORM CAT

This horse’s dam sire is doing really poorly in that sphere nothing suggest he will be top class he has only two graded stakes winners so far in real life. The four years younger Galileo has double that already! As with his sire rating a massive downgrade is still required. This is an interesting horse. He still appears to be on the upgrade. Outside looking in the thing that hits me his highest two speed figures which are both top class were at a mile. My gut instinct is this horse has the ability to win a graded race but that will come over a mile. As such I pass him over for selection in this open race.

INFINITE SAMURAI (KY) FIRST SAMURAI x A.P. INDY x DANEHILL

This horse’s sire has done ok so far not setting the world alight but then that should not have been expected. He is another sire that is better than Archipenko but well below all the other sires at Lanwades. His three graded stakes winners so far show a preference for dirt speed only turf winner in a grade 3 two year old fillies’ race in Canada which to us that live in Europe or Australia is a run below a listed stakes race. This though is a very nice horse. He is young and improving nicely. He has won at graded level over this trip and has been posting top speed figures. To my eyes he looks the kind of horse to have a very good 2012. He has every chance in this race and unless something goes wrong it is hard to see him not making the first three.

SPORTIN INDY NEW’D (GB) NEW APPROACH (IRE) x A.P. INDY x SPORTIN’ LIFE

New Approach on paper is a better sire prospect than Sea The Stars is his first yearlings sold very well. It will be interesting to see how they live up to expectations on the racecourse. This is a nice horse that is a graded winner over 8f and is capable of running very good speed figures. He does not appear to stay 10f but has run well over 9f in the past. Again I feel he is more of a miler than a 9f but his class carries him at this trip. On that basis he has to be vulnerable in here though is more than capable of making the frame.

DWARF (KY) DYNAFORMER x AWESOME AGAIN (CAN) x A.P. INDY

Dynaformer is getting really old and if reports are to believed will only cover 2 mares this year. It would be nice to see that replicated in the sim. He is almost the last of a dying breed a US sire with turf appeal worldwide of his last 38 graded winners 31 have been on turf. It is worth noting that as a broodmare sire his is showing a serious lack of class without any world class offspring as of yet. This is an interesting horse. He appears to have improved for a switch to dirt. He has proven his ability at this level on turf in the past and likes the trip. Overall looking back at his early starts dirt appears to be his best surface and as such is passed over in a competitive race.

ROSENROT (GER) MONSUN (GER) x DANEHILL x SHARPEN UP (GB)

As mentioned many time Monsun is a pure stamina influence though it is nice to see Danehill getting more runners in turf races as a dam sire. He has 99 graded stakes winners over the last 8 years yes he has lots of mares A P Indy who is three years younger has 8 mind to be fair he would have half the mares though Selkirk is way better than A P Indy on real life results as a dam sire. I like this horse he is well trained as always by connections and nicely prepped for this race. The question is can he return to the form he showed last summer if he does then he has to be there or there about.

PAPERBOY (KY) SMART STRIKE (CAN) x SADLER’S WELLS x KRIS S.

Why is there such an anti Canadian thing in the sim? There are so many horse’s bred in Canada that fail to be correctly classified Smart Strike, Northern Dancer, Awesome Again, Nijinsky and Deputy Minister are just a few. It would be nice to see them get the correct suffix. Here we have another 9f specialist which should be expected of this sire really. He has been a very good horse and at his best like 4 runs ago really has to be in with a shout here. The issue is will he do so. His form cycle suggest he is due a good run he looks like he runs top class once in four of late. If he can extend that sequence then he has to be considered here and would in real life be an interesting bet at 13-1!

TUTU MARAMBA (AUS) SEBRING (AUS) x KINGMAMBO x DANEHILL

I am not into this sire at all and on paper he has to be odds on to be downgraded sooner or later. His own sire suggest he is likely to be 90%+ speed of More Than Ready’s graded stakes winners over the last 8 years 75% have been at 8f or less and only 1 has been at over 10f. That horse does win the prize for having the prettiest registered owner though. This again is a horse on the upgrade and improving with racing he likes the trip which is a bonus and has won a graded stakes race though a 3yo only at the end of the year. His speed figures of late are very good and if continues to run like that has the ability to make the frame here.

RAINY SUNDAY (IRE) RAVEN’S PASS x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SAINT BALLADO

I have to say this horse would be horrid in real life well at least in terms of temperament. It was interesting to see how Raven’s Pass had been bred at stud at least years yearling sales. Many American breeders had been given incentives to send mares over to Europe and those foal shares were purchased back at a nice price for them! The question now is will he deliver on paper yes he should but time will tell. This is another horse that appears on the upgrade. His last two runs have been at 8f which probably did not suit. A return to the form prior over 9f makes this fellow interesting and another player in a wide open race.

SKUNK IN THE GRASS (KY) BLUEGRASS CAT x ALYDAR x BOLD RULER

Bluegrass Cat has had three graded winners in real life so far and none on turf. It has to be said none of those winners is anything special either. He looks like a stallion on his way to obscurity in truth. A look at is sim statistics seems to show he has been downgraded and rightly so. This is a very good horse and he likes this 9f trip being a multiple graded stakes winner at the trip. He had a nice confidence boosting win last time. The issue is does he still retain all of his ability. There do seem to be signs of wear and tear kicking in. Couple that with several younger upstarts his chances of winning seem slim but he could sneak a place.

DYNAJINSKY (KY) DYNAFORMER x NIJINSKY II (CAN) x ALYDAR

Since 2004 only three horses born have had Nijinsky as a dam sire in graded stakes races. One was Archipenko! He has had 19 in his last 4 crops now 3 or older. Something is seriously wrong here. I have said many times these old stallions need to lose ability over time. It may well be the case Mike has implemented this as of yet his 3yo crop as thrown no stakes winners. This for the sim would be good news if he has. This horse is hard to figure he can be brilliant and can be a total dog. I think some of his issues is he was good early as a 3yo and many of these horses do not carry on in the same vein. Although this is likely and he will be closer to last than first it would not be the biggest surprise ever if he went and won.

TOPSTOP (AUS) HUSSON (ARG) x STORM CAT x STOP THE MUSIC

I wrote about this sire recently and he is another who looks massively over rated and will be downgraded in time. Storm Cat is becoming a better broodmare sire than sire of sires. He has had 57 graded stakes winners in the last 8 years top class. Of those over 60% have been at 8f or less and only 12% at 10f or above. This is very telling. The split between turf and dirt is just about even. This is again another 4yo on the rise. His speed figures are improving and the drop to a more suitable trip pedigree wise last time saw a graded stakes win. If he can on that here and there are no obvious reasons other than the sim throws bad runs. He has to be on the short list.

As For my Selections:

1, INFINITE SAMURAI
2, TOPSTOP
3, PAPERBOY