The Immense Derby Challenge
Three year olds are in Kentucky getting a race over the track just nine weeks before the Bluegrass Derby. Running in the Grade One Immense Derby Challenge at a mile and one eighth are thirteen colts and one filly. The purse is $500,000. This race pits some established stakes horses with some young up-and-comers. Four horses are coming out of the Grade Three Good Cow which saw the top two finishers (both here today) run a scorching 107sp. That race goes to show that three year olds can improve dramatically at this time of year. We’ll take a look at the field and pay close attention to the pedigrees of these Derby aspirants.
#1 Midland Fan is one of the up-and-coming runners in the field today. He has an enviable 6-3-2-0 record and enters off a two race win streak. Those races were a seven and one half furlong allowance race and a mile and three sixteenth listed stakes race. He ran a career best sp of 88 in that last start but will have to dramatically improve to compete against this field, let alone the Bluegrass Derby. Midland Fan is a son of two year old champion Midshipman out of the f-grade Dixieland Band x Lear Fan mare Ache Emelie. Ache Emelie never won a race beyond a mile and one eighth, neither did her first foal by Old Fashioned. Midshipman’s first sim-foals just turned three years old, but as a runner he himself never won beyond a mile and one sixteenth.
#2 Appeasing is among the established runners in this field. He was second in last year’s Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, after winning the Grade Three Darling-Squash Futurity. He was third and seventh in two graded tries before winning a one mile allowance race in his most recent start with a career best 103sp. Appeasing is a son of Street Sense, who’s first real-life foals include promising Triple Crown candidate Castaway. Street Sense of course won the Kentucky Derby and his sim-runners tend to do better at a route. Appeasing is out of the e-grade Danzig x Mr. Prospector mare Im Smooth. Im Smooth was a stakes winner who never won beyond one mile. Appeasing is her first stakes winner, but her two stakes-placed foals (by Storm Cat and Mineshaft) were sprinter/milers. This is a good spot for Appeasing to show he wants to go further but he will be relying on his sire to give him that stamina.
#3 Silverton is an up and comer who has won three straight races and five of seven overall. He has four wins at a mile or more, including the Danzig With Sal Dirt Route at a mile and one sixteenth most recently with a 103sp. Silverton is a son of Smart Strike based on the c-grade Silver Deputy x Dixieland Band horse Band of Silver. Band of Silver won two stakes races at a mile and three sixteenths so distance should not be a problem for his son. Smart Strike of course produced Preakness Stakes winners Curlin and Lookin at Lucky in real life, and in the sim his progeny generally favor routes. His leading earner over the last five years is K’s Stagflation who has earned $6.2 million does his best running around a mile and one half.
#4 Flip Flop Tip Top is a more established graded runner. His best finishes were a second in the Grade Three Montana Futurity at five and one half furlongs in June of 2011 and a second in the Grade Three Legoland at one mile two starts back. He also finished third in the Grade One Vermont is 4 Lovers at a mile and three sixteenths in his most recent start. He earned a career best sp of 99 in the Legoland. Flip Flop Tip Top’s last two races have suggested he may appreciate more distance but his pedigree argues against it. A son of top sprinter Henny Hughes, Flip Flop Tip Top is based on the d-grade Dansili x Mr. Greeley stakes winner Colorful Degree. Colorful Degree was a sprinter and the only stakes runner from his dam Senorita Color. Henny Hughes’ foals both in real life and in the sim strongly favor sprints. That said, his highest earner for the last five years is Perfectionism (over $500,000) a Grade Two winner at a mile and one quarter.
#5 Lyrical Gangster became an established graded runner with an emphatic win in the Grade Three Good Cow at one mile with an astonishing 107sp in his most recent start. He had finished third in his stakes debut in his previous start, which ended a three race win streak. At first glance his pedigree screams the mile and one quarter of the Bluegrass Derby. He’s a son of Street Cry, who of course sired Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense from his first crop. In the sim Street Cry’s foals tend to prefer routes as well. Lyrical Gangster is out of the g-grade A.P. Indy x Forty Niner mare Amsterdam Blaze. Amerstdam Blaze was a miler and both her dam and granddam never won a route race. Obviously having A.P. Indy as her sire helped her go farther, and the combination with Street Cry should only help Lyrical Gangster get the distance he needs to be a Classic contender.
#6 Zen Kitty has already won the Grade Two Big Hill Stakes at seven furlongs last October. He followed that with a win in an owner restricted stakes at a mile and one sixteenth before finishing a neck behind Lyrical Gangster in the Grade Three Good Cow. He earned an identical 107sp in that one mile race. Zen Kitty is a late closer who comes from well back in the field and that may be his saving grace as his pedigree does not indicate much stamina. He is a scratch-bred son of Zensational x Tale of the Cat x Dixieland Band. Zensational, a champion sprinter has three foal crops so far in the sim. His progeny favor sprints in general, but his top two earners Prenzlauerberg and Charlie in the Box have done well at middle and longer distances. As a ds Tale of the Cat’s get are predominantly sprinters as well. We will learn a lot about this colt going a mile and one eighth but if he gets a mile and one quarter in the Derby it will be on heart, not pedigree.
#7 Miss Sea Cup is an up and comer and a filly to boot. She’s won three straight races, all allowances. Two victories came at one mile and most recently she won at a mile and one eighth. Both of her last two starts have come against males. Still this is a tough spot to make your stakes debut. She is a scratch-bred daughter of Mizzen Mast x Quiet American x Graustark. Mizzen Mast proved himself at distances up to a mile and a quarter and his real life progeny have done well at longer distances (he is the sire of, among others, Santa Anita Handicap favorite Ultimate Eagle). In the sim his progeny favor routing, but notably he has not sired a graded winner over the last five years. As a damsire Quiet American’s sim progeny tend to favor sprints but in real life he is the broodmare sire of classic winner Bernardini. Graustark is the interesting element in this pedigree. A son of two time Arc winner Ribot out of the stakes winning mare Flower Bowl, Graustark was injured early in his three year old season and never ran beyond a mile and one eighth but is a strong stamina influence in pedigrees along with his full brother His Majesty. Graustark is also the broodmare sire of Mizzen Mast so Miss Sea Cap is inbred 3×3 to him, a combination not often seen.
#8 Lorenzo is a quality stakes runner, having taken the Grade Two Royal Dodge at one mile and two other stakes races. All of his runs so far have come on the turf and the obvious question is whether he will transfer that form to the dirt. His last race came at a mile and three sixteenths in a listed stakes where he was second with a 98 sp (a career high). Lorenzo is a son of Medicean, a son of Street Cry’s sire Machiavellian. Medicean was mostly a miler but he did stretch his speed out to a mile and one quarter when winning the Coral-Eclipse Stakes. His real life foals have shown a range of abilities, often getting their stamina (or lack thereof) from their dams. In the sim his foals can go either way as well. Lorenzo is out of the h-grade Danzig x Seattle Slew mare Danzing Daisy. She was not a winner in three starts but her foals have done quite well. Her son Blind Harry (A.P. Valentine) is a graded winner who prefers longer distances on the grass. Another son, Sufferthorn (Mr. Sidney) is a stakes winner and has shown himself adept on both surfaces at classic and longer distances.
#9 Dare to Win is making only his second graded stakes start after finishing eighth in the Grade Three Scam at a mile and one eighth in his last start. He does have an allowance victory at a mile and one sixteenth and a second in a restricted stakes at the same distance. As a two year old he was second in two sprint stakes as well. Dare to Win is a son of Horse of the Year Curlin, who’s first foals race this year. In the sim his foals have shown a strong propensity towards routing. Dare to Win is out of the f-grade Malibu Moon x Tabasco Cat mare Barbara Dare. This is the only foal for the mare who won races between six furlongs and a mile and one eighth. As a damsire Malibu Moon’s foals are evenly split between routing and sprinting. His only graded winner is a sprinter by Cowtown Cat named Cowtown Dyna.
#10 Stevieboy is a confirmed stakes runner, having won the Grade Three Faber College Juvenile last July and running second in three straight route stakes in his last three starts. He lost two of those in photos including the Grade Two Ransom at a mile and one eighth where he earned a career best 93sp. He was given two months off following that start and returned going a mile and three sixteenths. His class kept him in second in that start but he was tiring in the stretch. Stephen Got Even won as far as a mile and one eighth and his best progeny have run well at that distance, but not often much passed it although he did sire First Dude, Hollywood Gold Cup winner and third place Belmont Stakes finisher. In the sim, Stephen Got Even’s foals have done almost equally well at sprints and routes. His best foal, A.P. Assault is a marathon type and closely related to Stevieboy. Stevieboy is out of Robe Bell, an h-grade Broad Brush x Robellino mare. She herself never won but her first foal was City Cat Again, a stakes winner at a mile and one eighth and hemare of A.P. Assault.
#11 Always Charming has hit the board in each of his eight races. He’s finished third in two graded attempts coming in his last two starts. He was third in the Grade Three Charcoal Breeder’s Cup at a mile and one sixteenth and third again in the Grade Three Scam at a mile and one eighth. He earned a 98sp in that start, his career best. Always Charming is a son of Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm. Not a popular sire in America, Silver Charm was sold to Japanese interests several years ago. In the sim Silver Charm’s offspring strongly prefer routes, his leading earner Three Buck Doot ($1.3 million) is a confirmed marathoner. Always Charming is out of the f-grade Zabeel x Rahy mare World Promise. All six of World Promise’s victories came between one mile and a mile and one eighth. As a damsire, Zabeel’s influence can be mixed although his two graded winners earned their grades routing.
#12 A Wild Storm is truly up and coming, he’s riding a five race win streak, all at one mile. He broke his maiden on the turf and then switched to dirt for the remaining four races. His speeds have been slow comparatively, his lifetime best is only an 89. But this colt certainly knows how to find the winner’s circle. A Wild Storm is a son of Elvstroem, a high class Australian runner who won from distances of six and one half furlongs up to a mile and seven sixteenths. His biggest victory came in the Caulfield Cup. In the sim his offspring have shown a strong propensity towards route racing. A Wild Storm is out of the g-grade Machiavellian x Wild Again mare French N Wild. Her only victory came in a sprint and her only stakes winning offspring, Wild Ugly Fast (Fastnet Rock) is a sprinter. French N Wild was based on the e-grade racer Wild River who did his best racing up to a mile and one eighth.
#13 Specificity is a solid stakes competitor who emerges from the Grade Three Good Cow where he was fourth with a strong 103sp. Prior to that he had won five straight races including three stakes races. Two of those stakes races came at a mile and one eighth, the other was at one mile. There is no doubting that Specificity inherits his stamina from sire Dynaformer. Dynaformer’s sim progeny strongly favor route races. Specificity was based on the c-grade Pivotal x Seeking the Gold horse Cablinasian. A four time stakes winner, Cablinasian only tried routes twice as a two year old without winning. He in turn was based on the a-grade racer Hail Cesario. Hail Cesario won three grade one races and over $2.3 million, mostly in mile races.
#14 Immensely has a strong 6-4-2-0 record and enters this spot on a three race win streak. He took an allowance at a mile and one sixteenth and a listed stakes at the same distance. In his most recent start he won a mile and one eighth allowance. He earned back-to-back 91sps in his last two starts, his lifetime high. Immensely is a son of Giant’s Causeway who did his best running between one mile and a mile and one quarter. Somewhat surprisingly, the son of Storm Cat has thrown mostly routers as a sim sire. Most importantly perhaps is that he has a strong reputation for siring high class horses. Immensely is based on the f-grade Distorted Humor x A.P. Indy horse Caligula Blushed. Caligula Blushed was never entered in a stakes race but ran very fast speeds, topping out with several 111s, mostly at a mile. He earned nearly $150,000 in his career.
Good luck to all!