The California Oaks – “Bro, It’s Just Some Big Animals Running in a Circle—Let’s Go Get Some Nachos”

An unnamed source taped this conversation at the track this morning, the participants were later identified as a renowned comedy duo, known for their iconic “Dave” routine, where one refuses to open the door because “Dave’s not here”

Setting the Scene

Our yet to be named comedians are sitting in the stands at a California racetrack. Between them is a crumpled form guide, a large bag of snacks, two large sodas, and approximately zero sobriety. The race is the California Oaks. Grade One. $750,000. They have been here since the second race. It is now the seventh. Neither of them is entirely sure how they got here.

Cheech

Hey man, hey. HEY. We gotta pick the horses for this race, man. It’s the big one. The California Oaks. That’s like… that’s OUR race, man. California. That’s us.

Chong

Oh wow. Yeah. Yeah yeah yeah. California. Beautiful. Hey what are oaks, man?

Cheech

They’re… trees, man. Big trees. Oak trees. But there’s no trees here, it’s a racetrack. So I don’t know, man. Maybe the horses are named after trees. You think any of ’em are named after trees?

Chong

I dunno man. Let me look at this… this paper thing. This… form guide thing. Okay okay okay. First horse. Number one. Anne Bretagne. Hey man, that’s French. That’s very French. Why is there a French horse in California?

Cheech

Man, horses don’t care where they’re from, they just run, you know? And this one runs GOOD, man. She won her last two races. Two in a row. That’s like… that’s momentum, man. Like a boulder rolling down a hill. You don’t stop a boulder.

Chong

Whoooa. A boulder. Yeah. Hey you know what I like about Anne Bretagne? She’s got 89% in the money, man. That means almost every single time she races, she gets PAID. She’s like… she’s the most reliable person I know. More reliable than you, man.

Cheech

Hey that is NOT— okay yeah that’s probably true. Ten to one odds though man, I like that. Anne Bretagne. Oui oui. Next one. Number two. Oh man. Runners Crossing. Hey Chong, you know what runners crossing is? It’s like a crosswalk. But for runners. For horses.

Chong

Wooow. Deep, man. Hey but check this out — she only had THREE races, man. Three. But she won one of them by TWENTY TWO AND A HALF LENGTHS. I had to read that three times, man. Twenty two and a half. That’s not a horse race, that’s a horse just… going for a jog while everyone else is still tying their shoes.

Cheech

Twenty two lengths, man. TWENTY TWO. You know how long that is? That’s like from here to… to that guy over there selling nachos. That’s far, man. That is genuinely far for a horse race. I’m a little bit in love with Runners Crossing and I only just met her.

Chong

Three races though man. Three. That’s like meeting someone at a party who seems totally amazing and then you realize you only talked to them for like ten minutes. Could be incredible. Could be a fluke. Could be both, man. Both is possible.

Cheech

Both is definitely possible. Okay. Number three. Coffee Empire. Oh MAN. Coffee Empire. That’s the most beautiful name I’ve ever heard, man. That’s like… that’s my whole life philosophy right there. Coffee. Empire. Build it one cup at a time.

Chong

She goes to the front man. Right to the front every time. Leads the whole way. She’s like that guy at a party who grabs the aux cord immediately and just… controls the whole vibe. Maximum Security is her dad. Maximum Security! That’s a name that makes me nervous just reading it, man.

Cheech

Yeah but the problem is man, lately she goes to the front and then everyone just… catches her. She set it up for everyone and then got run down. Like she’s leading the parade but forgot she’s also IN the parade. You can’t throw the party AND be the last one standing at the party, man. It doesn’t work like that.

Chong

Wooow. That is… that is genuinely wise, man. Okay okay. Number four. Jadilica. Hey. Hey Cheech. HEY. Her dad is Gun Runner, man. GUN RUNNER. That’s not a horse name, that’s a career choice.

Cheech

Gun Runner’s kids are TOUGH man. They run hard, they run honest, they run on dirt like this and they do NOT mess around. Jadilica won her last race coming from the back, man. She just… swept around everyone. Like a broom. A very fast, four-legged broom. She’s the favourite. Five to one. The market knows, man. The market always knows.

Chong

The market knows. That’s beautiful. I’m putting money on Jadilica. Right now. I’m decided. Wait — what number is she?

Cheech

Four, man. She’s number four. Write it down. Hey, wait, don’t write it on the nachos. Write it on the… the paper thing. Okay. Number five. Oh no. Oh noooo. Amazing Connection. Man. MAN. This poor horse.

Chong

What? What happened?

Cheech

She finished ELEVENTH last time man. Eleventh. Out of thirteen. And before that she was sixth. Out of nine. And her in the money rate is 43%, man. That means more than HALF the time she’s not even in the conversation. She’s like that guy who shows up to poker night but keeps getting up to make snacks. Present but not really there, you know?

Chong

Awww man. But she’s called AMAZING connection. The name says amazing RIGHT THERE. In the name. Maybe the name is prophetic, man. Maybe this is her day.

Cheech

…Chong, she’s 18 to 1. Eighteen. The people who set these odds looked at her and said yeah no. I trust the people who set the odds more than I trust names, man. Although it IS a great name. Pass me those nachos. Okay. Six. Pharoah In Ok. Ohhh this one’s got drama, man. She had TWO different owners.

Chong

No WAY. Like a custody situation?

Cheech

Kind of, man! Under the first owner she was winning races, looking good, leading and kicking clear and everything was beautiful. Then she changes hands and suddenly she’s finishing fourteenth out of fourteen last start. FOURTEENTH. Dead last, man. That’s a horse who is NOT happy about the situation. That’s a horse going through something emotional, man. I feel for her.

Chong

Her dad’s American Pharoah though, man. AMERICAN PHAROAH. That’s like… royalty. Ancient royalty. Egyptian horse royalty. You don’t just write off Egyptian horse royalty, Cheech.

Cheech

I mean… fourteenth, man. Fourteenth. Even Egyptian royalty has bad days, I guess. Okay. Seven. Elite Endeavor. Ooh. Only three races, man. But TWO wins. And she’s never been out of the money. Never. One hundred percent in the money rate.

Chong

Woooah. One hundred percent, man. That’s perfect. That’s a perfect score. You know who gets a hundred percent in anything? Nobody, man. Nobody. Except apparently Elite Endeavor. She sounds very… elite. And very… full of endeavor.

Cheech

She does only have three races though, man. Like Runners Crossing. Small sample. But that last win — she came from the back and won by five and a half lengths man. FIVE AND A HALF. She’s like a secret, man. A fast secret that nobody knows about yet. Thirteen to one. I like her, man. I like her energy.

Chong

Okay okay okay. Eight. Who’s eight. Belief In Bricks. Oh WOW. Belief. In. Bricks. Man, that is a PHILOSOPHY. That is a whole life philosophy right there. You gotta believe in bricks, man. Bricks built everything. Everything solid is made of bricks.

Cheech

Chong. Chong listen to me. This horse has SIX wins from EIGHT races, man. Six. And she has raced in Japan. South Korea. South Africa. Queensland — that’s in Australia man. She went to AUSTRALIA. And she won there. She is a world traveller AND a winner. This horse has seen more of the world than both of us combined and she gets PAID for it.

Chong

Six wins from eight races AND she’s been to Australia AND her name is Belief In Bricks AND she’s only eleven to one? Man. MAAAN. That’s the best deal I’ve heard all day. That’s better than the nachos and the nachos were three dollars, man.

Cheech

Write her down, man. Write her DOWN. Okay. Nine. Broad Stroker. Hey man, that name. That’s a painter’s name. Like someone who just goes WHOOSH with a big brush and paints the whole thing in one go.

Chong

Or like someone swimming, man. Big broad strokes. She’s swimming down the racetrack. Is that what horses do? Do they stroke? They kind of do man, if you think about it, they kind of stroke the ground with their legs—

Cheech

CHONG. Focus man, focus. She won her last TWO races. Two in a row. She’s like Jadilica but she settles further back and comes flying late. Her dad’s Munnings. That’s a sprint sire but she’s figured out how to stay longer than her dad did, man. That’s personal growth. That is literal personal growth from a horse. Eight to one. She’s absolutely live, man.

Chong

Personal growth. From a horse. I love this sport, man. Okay. Ten. Oh man. Oh this name. Kentuckystorm VIII. The EIGHTH, Cheech. There have been SEVEN others. Seven other Kentuckystorms before this one. This is a dynasty, man. This is a DYNASTY.

Cheech

Her last race, man — LISTEN to this. She was TENTH at the half mile point. Tenth! And she still WON. She came from the absolute back of the pack and ran them ALL down. That is insane, man. That’s like starting a race from the parking lot and still winning.

Chong

But the race before THAT she got beaten by almost eight lengths, man. Eight lengths. So she goes from getting flogged to running them all down from tenth. She’s like… she’s unpredictable, man. She’s like the weather. She’s like a Kentucky storm. Which makes total sense because that’s literally her name.

Cheech

That is the most self-aware horse name I have ever encountered, man. Okay. Eleven. Frostgold. Frostgold. Like… cold gold. Frozen treasure. Man, that sounds like a cocktail. A Frostgold. Ice and something golden. Whisky maybe.

Chong

Cheech. The horse, man. Focus on the horse.

Cheech

Right right right. Okay so. She’s only in the money 29% of the time, man. That’s… that’s not great. That means she’s OUT of the money more than she’s IN it. Like way more. She’s got the worst in-the-money rate of any horse in this race that’s run more than twice, man. And she’s 17 to 1. I love the name but I don’t love the numbers. The numbers are talking, man, and what they’re saying is… not great.

Chong

Maybe the frost got to the gold, man. Like maybe it’s frozen. Maybe she needs to thaw out. On a warm California day like today. Maybe TODAY is her thaw day, Cheech.

Cheech

…I mean… maybe. Probably not. But maybe. Okay twelve. TWELVE. Rushing Nile. MAN. The Nile, man. The actual Nile. The longest river in the world, man. Ancient Egypt again! First Pharoah In Ok and now Rushing Nile. This race has an Egyptian theme and I don’t think anyone planned that.

Chong

Whoooa. The universe planned it, man. The universe is always planning things we don’t notice. But hey — HEY — Rushing Nile has raced in like FIVE different countries, man. Japan. Korea. UAE. Suriname. Florida. And she has NEVER finished outside the top three. Never. Seven races, one hundred percent in the money. Same as Elite Endeavor but with WAY more races. That’s not luck, man. That’s consistency. That’s a professional.

Cheech

Seven to one AND never out of the money AND she ran in five countries AND she knows Broad Stroker from their last race? Man. MAAAN. Why is nobody talking about Rushing Nile? She’s just sitting there at seven to one being incredible and nobody’s even— write her down, Chong. Write her down RIGHT NOW.

Chong

Written. Okay. Thirteen. Guns of the Deputy. Oh man. Oh wow. Guns. Of. The. Deputy. That’s like… that’s a whole Western movie right there. That’s the climax of a Western movie. The guns. Of the deputy. Dramatic, man.

Cheech

Her dad’s Gun Runner too, man! So we got two Gun Runner fillies in this race — Jadilica AND Guns of the Deputy. That’s a family rivalry. That is a FAMILY RIVALRY happening right here in the California Oaks. The Gun Runner sisters, man. Only four races but she won her last TWO and her last start she came from midfield and just swept around everyone in New York. Nine to one. She’s an each way special, man. Don’t sleep on the deputy’s guns.

Chong

Don’t sleep on the deputy’s guns. Man, that should be on a motivational poster. Okay. Last one. Fourteen. Survivorship Bias. …Cheech. CHEECH. Who names a horse Survivorship Bias? That’s a PSYCHOLOGY TERM, man. That’s a cognitive bias they teach you about in school. Whoever named this horse went to college, man. They definitely went to college.

Cheech

And you know what survivorship bias IS, man? It’s when you only see the things that survived and you forget about all the things that didn’t make it. Like you only hear about the successful people and not all the ones who tried and failed. And this HORSE — this horse has survived and improved every single race. Every one. Five starts, five improvements. She goes from getting beaten in Germany to winning her last race at Michigan. That’s the actual definition of survivorship bias lived out by a horse, man. My brain is melting a little bit.

Chong

Wooooooow. Woooooow, man. A horse that IS its own name. Philosophically. That’s the deepest thing I’ve encountered at a racetrack, Cheech. And I once saw a horse called Zen Master fall over in the mounting yard and I thought THAT was deep.

Cheech

Eleven to one and she’s improving every single race. I’m putting something on her. Not much, but something. As a tribute to the philosophy. Okay man, okay. We went through all fourteen. We did it. We actually did it.

Chong

We did it, man. We covered all fourteen horses. That’s… that’s a real achievement. For us. In our current state. I’m proud of us, Cheech.

Cheech

So what are we betting, man? Let’s lock it in. I got Jadilica to win — Gun Runner filly, favourite, comes from back, fast dirt, she’s the one. And I’m putting Belief In Bricks each way because six wins from eight races and she’s been to AUSTRALIA, man, that means something.

Chong

I’m on Rushing Nile each way, man. Seven to one, never out of the money, raced in five countries, and nobody’s talking about her. She’s the hidden gem, man. She’s the treasure in the Nile. And a tiny bit on Survivorship Bias because of the philosophy. You can’t NOT bet on the philosophy.

Cheech

You absolutely cannot not bet on the philosophy. Hey man… which race is this again?

Chong

…The California Oaks, man.

Cheech

California. Beautiful. That’s US, man. That’s OUR race.

Chong

Hey what are oaks?

Cheech

…They’re trees, man.

Their selections — written on the back of a nacho bag

Cheech’s picks

Jadilica to win. Belief In Bricks each way. A little bit on Survivorship Bias because of the philosophy.

Chong’s picks

Rushing Nile each way. Guns of the Deputy each way. Survivorship Bias because you cannot not bet on the philosophy.