As The SAINTS Go Marching In
Oh How I wish I was in that Number
Louisiana (LA)
Saturday, February 25, 2023 — 3:10:00 PM EST | Race ID : 3012740
| Saints Handicap | |
| Grade II / Group 2*CPU – Purse : $375,000 | |
| Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older | |
| 9 Furlongs | ~1800 Meters | One Mile and and One Eighth | Fast Dirt |
By Darcy “Dingo” MacPhee
Well, if there is one thing us writer’s can be thank the Pandemic for, it’s that even tech hating trainers have learned to use and accept video conferencing. Here I am sitting back in the hammock slung on the veranda of my North Queensland beach house, enjoying fresh pineapple juice while gazing out over the Pacific Ocean. As the sun rises in the east, on a bright clear morning, a yacht cruising by sails full, where else could a man enjoy life so much and still make a living as a racing journo.
With the Group 2 Saints Handicap in Louisiana to cover for the Bugler on Saturday, and a Down Under Racing residency race on Sunday in Ireland, the weekend seems to be ready for a man to add to last week’s profits down in Melbourne.
Having spent all night fighting the time difference to get you my readers the best insider trading I could, I should let you all into the secrets I learned. The first one is, you would need to be Zoltan The Great to decipher the form of Saturday’s race. With an odds spread of less than 9 points covering the entire 11 horse field, there is no easy selections in this race. All I can do is analyze the form for you, and see where we all end up at the end
No. 1 FIRESTONE WALKER
Trainer “lenny271” appears to have been in two minds with this horse, after starting his racing career with 2 very nice wins, he opted to go direct into Group 1, and initially this looked promising when he got a hard charging 2nd place. Unfortunately the next 2 runs his form tapered off and lenny opted to set his 3yo debut into a listed stakes, which he duly won going to the line easily. I have a feeling the original plan for this horse was a push at the Bluegrass, and here is where the dice were rolled and a try to win the Florida Derby and a guaranteed Derby start was the agenda, but a 4th place left him short of enough entry points. He did however gain a start in the Middle Jewel, where everything came crashing down 20 lengths back in last, caused his trainer to do a complete rethink and send him back for a confidence boosting allowance win. Some better than average finishes since then at listed stakes level without winning (and reasonable SP’s) have earned him another try at Group 2.
At 8/1 he falls into the middle of this field, if you put aside his Middle Jewel run he has been consistent without shining. MUST BE CONSIDERED.
No. 2 HAMAL
Coming from the strong “bizalls” stable, where the flavour of the day is Only Stayers “Stay Long, Stay Fast, Stay Forever” is the war chant coming out of the bizalls racing team horse float. Coming from the main house is the clear voice of his mother… Stay Forver? No Way! Followed closely by a suitcase landing next to the barn door. However, we are to discuss Hamal, clearly 9 furlongs is his thing with 9 consecutive races over the distance in 14 months, his front running style finally paid dividends as he strung 4 wins together (3 conditioned allowances and a listed stakes). Jumping straight to the lead again last start in the Group 3 Willing and Able Stakes, he was willing but not able to withstand the pressure and folded in the straight to drop back and finish 5th.
Looks the Leader from the inside draw, but will need to get an easy run in front if he is to prevail, any pressure could put pay to his hopes of victory. DEFINITE CHANCE BUT AT 5/1 IT’S A RISK
No. 3 BRUSH OF MISCHIEF
Winner of last year’s Middle Jewel it was the pace he set that did a “mischief” to the number one horse. He does like to lead but if pressured he is capable of taking a sit and stalking the pace quite successfully. His form tapered off somewhat after the Middle Jewel win, although, he did take on the older horses in last years Breeder’ Bowl Mile, and in a race that probably was too short, he gave a credible performance. Trainer “dydalt” didn’t give him a breather and on just a 4 week break sent him out in a listed stakes, where he lead and was caught 50 yards from the line.
Coming off a last start win in Residency Stakes, won’t have hurt his confidence. As the only Group 1 winner in the race and nearly $2.5 million in prize money, 6/1 seems a fair offering. Interest will be if he pushes the No. 2 horse for the lead or takes a trail behind
No. 4 EL COCODRILO
Comes into this Saturday’s race as one of the two horses at the back of the field (odds wise) at 13/1. Trainer “monopoly” isn’t quite sure if his horse is playing games with him or not, because when he is on he is very good, but when he is off, he is downright terrible. Last start was one of the deadset terrible ones, and he will need to do a lot more to be competitive. His best races have been when he pace on Saturday is expected to be on the steamy side of HOT.
On his best form could sneak into receiving a check, likely a very minor one. LOOKING ELSEWHERE.
No. 5 MISYOUBROTHERRICK
Trainer “bbt” dropped him back to allowance class last start for a much needed confidence boosting win, as it had been 18 months and 8 starts since he had previously managed a winners’ check. That was in his 3 yo year and was his win in the Group 2 Californian La Holla Stakes, which is where he earned the greater majority of his $917,000 prize money. This horse obviously has ability, you don’t make the Bluegrass Derby field without it, unfortunately glimpses of that ability have been quite rare since then. With an in the money percentage under 50, the odds seem to be against him on Saturday.
With a lifetime record of 4 wins from 19 starts, his odds of 9/1 seem rather thin. CANNOT RECOMMEND.
No. 6 FALSE WITNESSES
This aptly named 6 year old is the most experienced runner in Saturday’s Race, with 7 wins and 7 minor placings from his 27 starts. Why do I say he is aptly named? His trainer “spinround” began this horses career on the dirt, and after seeing nothing a move to the grass bore instant fruit with his maiden win. He then proceeded to tease and cajole his trainer, as he bore False Witness to his abilities for his next 8 winless starts (including finishing 3rd 4 times in a row). Having had enough of his antics spinround called the local vet. After the mandatory 3 months R and R after said procedure, and back on the dirt track, suddenly a racehorse emerged, winning 4 from his next 6 (including a listed stakes), then 2 starts later the New Jersey Group 2 Hoffa Cup in August of 2021. May last year saw him post a fantastic 121 SP in winning a Group 3 race in Texas. He has been lightly raced since with a 3rd in the Group 3 Bull Durham 2 starts back his best result from his 4 starts.
Goes to the Barrier as the pre-post 9/2 favourite, (did we just catch a glimpse of that extremely rare creature bookmakius sentimentalist). His age looks to have crept up on him but MUST BE CONSIDERED.
No. 7 DAZED AND REFUSED
It’s old school training at its best with this horse, his trainer “robsscoobi” has brought his charge along very slowly and carefully, being rewarded with 8 wins and 3 minor placings from 14 starts. Starting his race career where every ounce of his breeding pointed on the grass, he ran consistently going through his allowance conditions without showing his trainer any Pizzazz. In June last year he ran an abysmal last in a 4 horse allowance, after a 2 month break robsscoobi defied his bloodlines and tried the dirt, and here we are today with a horse 4 from 4 on dirt and a listed stakes win to his credit last start. Not only is he undefeated on the dirt, he has won with ease and a decent speed bump each race. (Secret Information: I managed a brief word with top jock D Givins, and he was oozing confidence when he said “I don’t take a ride on a 13/1 shot unless it should be the 2/1 favourite”)
Having cashed a cheque at all 14 starts he has made me a believer in the traditional ways of ease a horse through his conditions and has earned his place in Saturday’s Race. At a surprising 13/1 he is co outsider. HOT PROSPECT!
No. 8 UPENDO
Drops in class here from his recent runs, coming off a last start 3rd in the Japan Cup (against older horses as a 3 year old) last November, he has been freshened up for this race by his trainer “planoaxius”. He looks set for a big race, he has shown class and ability throughout his entire 13 race career, with 5 wins (including a Group 2 and 3) and 6 minor placings (3 at Group 1 and 1 at Group2) everything points to him being the horse to beat on Race Day.
I am not sure if the oddsmaker for this race was reading the same form lines as I am, at 8/1 this horse seems ready to “UPEND” this field. GETS MY THUMBS UP, (and my money)
No. 9 KAHUMAHINGA
I guess trainer “beerkeg” decided he better snip this guy when he transferred into his barn from the “deyoto” stables. As Maori history tells us that Kahumahinga was the GRAND-DAUGHTER of Kimihia. However, it didn’t have any instant success and with a rather lacklustre 3yo season not much hope was held out for this horse’s future. Then came 2022, and his first start he broke into triple digits for the first time (SP wise) following up that start with 2 allowance wins and further SP bumps, he went into a Group 3, and his trainers hopes were dashed. Not being deterred “keg” just had a couple more beers and told his foreman try listed stakes, which 4 races later resulted in 2 minor places. This earned him another try at Group level, which also earned him another crash and burn. A few beers later still undeterred “keg” waved his arm around and yelled enter the silly bugger in the SAINTS and here we are.
At 11/1 all I can say is GIVE ME ONE OF WHAT “KEG” IS HAVING!
No.10 BATTLE WRECKAGE
Trainer “mtk76” seems to have taken a liking to using an allowance on the grass track as a way to try and rekindle a flagging career for this now aging 6 year old horse. It has been 15 months since his last win where he gained his Group 2 star in the Lewis and Clark Stakes in Kentucky. Since then he has shown glimpses of form placing once and getting a check 4 from 5 starts at Group 1 level. So last start found him taking an easy win back in allowance level on the grass, will it have the desired effect, or will a drop back to Group 2 maybe assist him improve. The other option of course is that he will live up to his name and just become Battle Wreckage left in the wake of the other horses.
I have some faith in his ability, and as equal 2nd favourite at 5/1 he must have a chance. SUGGEST A PLACE BET IS WISEST
No. 11 WARBRANCH
The hopes of the “atthewire” stables rest on this lightly raced 4 year old colts broad back. Coming into the race as the least experienced horse, he has been to the big show of Group Racing 4 times before and 4 times has come away defeated. Yet to earn a pay check of any kind at this level, his trainer and team are persistent to say the least. With 5 wins from his lifetime 12 starts (1 a listed stakes), this might be his last chance for quite a while to impress his connections, failure could see a long return to allowance level.
Goes to the barrier Saturday at 11/1 and is probably under the odds at that price. NOT FOR ME.
Well readers that yacht that sailed by has run aground so I hope that isn’t an omen for tomorrow, but the beer is cold and waiting the sun is shining and all is well in the world right now. My PA Melissa is due here soon with our lunch, it is amazing how she will go that extra mile when asked, especially after she has had the morning off to go shopping and spend her bonus from last weeks winning day at Flemington
As for tomorrow confidence is high
EACH WAY and Bet of the Day No 8 to “UPEND” this field at the lucrative odds of 8/1
Also have a little Saver at 13/1 on the No. 7 horse who could leave the field DAZED in his wake
Exotics: Trifecta 7,8 / 1,3,6,7,8,10/1,3,6,7,8,10
Exacta: 7,8/ 1,3,6,7,8,10 and a double up on 7/8 and 8/7
Time to go feed Barry my pet wombat, he can be such a pest when he is hungry, good punting all
Darcy “Dingo” MacPhee
Nice article. Thanks.