Group 3 Good Vista Handicap
Race ID 3012499
Girls Day Out, but hard work for a Punter
By Darcy “Dingo” MacPhee
LATE MAIL:
An urgent request just came in from my old cobber at the Black Stump Bungler to do a long range forecast. He says one of his mates reckons he has a dead cert in the Good Vista Handicap and would like my opinion on the field before he commits this month pension payment. I tried to explain that Ohio is nowhere near Miami (where I am currently enjoying the view and sunshine).
So he said “Just give her ya best whack mate and handicap the race for me will ya?”
Well as any good Aussie knows when a mate asks for a favour, you always do your best to help him out. So, after studying the form this is what I came up with
5/2 Fav. No. 2 FREE AND FREE
Trainer “jake” has this 5 yo Bay Mare fit and raring to go, after a little more than 2 months since her last run she has been freshened for today’s race. She has the form on the board at the Group 3 Level with 2 wins and a second at 5 attempts, with just the one bad race 2 starts back. Her 11 wins and 7 placings from 23 lifetime starts certainly earn her the right to be at the pinnacle of the odds for this race.
3/1 No. 6 IMMORAL MONSUN
As the second pick on the oddsmakers board, she also comes in with strong recent Group form winning the Ontario Molson Export Group 2 4 starts back last September. Coming of her last run an easy breeze for a win in a NW1t Allowance last December, trainer “jacklad4” seems to have set his sights on this race to have this flashy 6yo prove she has life in her legs yet.
7/2 No. 8 CALL O’ THE WILD
Coming from the very successful “blinkbonny” stable, it does seem difficult to find a reason why she has been backed into the 3rd favourite for this race. Her form seems to be win or go home with 8 wins but only a single minor placing from 17 starts, she would definitely need to be “ON” to have any chance in this race. With just a single listed stakes win and her last start 4th in her only Group Race try, there really isn’t much to suggest she can improve. However, what she does have going for her is her trainer and the backing of a very good residency The Mecca (renowned for producing good Turf runners)
5/1 No. 7 THE WEAPONS
She seems to be one of those horses where you think you have her worked out, then suddenly she throws you the ultimate curve ball. Imagine 3 easy allowance wins, the trainer “corza” with a giant leap puts her right into a Group 1, where she charges home coming from 10th and 10 lengths back to run 3rd less than 2 lengths from the winner. You would have to think you have something special so why not let her take an easy win in a listed stakes for her next start, only to watch her drop to the tail of the field as usual, dead last but only 8 back at the home turn, she does absolutely nothing … passing 3 very tired horses in the straight and actually losing 2 lengths to the winner. However, with complete faith trainer “corza” backs her up into todays race off a 7 week rest.
6/1 No.3 GOLDACOPIA
Gaining her Group 3 win badge over 18 months ago as a precocious 3 year old filly, just happened to be her last win. With 6 starts in 2022 all at Group Level the best she could manage were a 2nd and 3rd in the 1st half of the year, and it has all been a slippery slope since then. A 3 month break certainly won’t have done her any harm and trainer “saluki47” must have great faith in her ability to succeed at this high level.
7/1 No. 4 BLACK SWAN EVENTS
A horse with a very dark name with sinister overtones, for those who don’t know what a Black Swan Event is, it is “a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict”
So that being said a win today would definitely be a Black Swan Event for 90% of the punters betting on this race. With her best form reserved for her in house ASR Residency races, her trainer “asrfrankel2” is hoping to beat the odds if expects her to show out in today’s race.
14/1 No. 5 HANNAHTHENTIC
Although she is a very consistent 4yo filly, it has been solely in allowance class with her best win being last start 6 weeks ago for a win in an NW5L Allowance. Her only start above allowance class was the previous start in a listed stakes race in Colorado, where unfortunately, she finished closer to last than first. Trainer “james34” may be reaching a little to push her to this level but miracles can happen, so here is hoping.
22/1 No. 1 PENTHIEVRE
This 4 yo filly comes to this race as the despised outsider of the field, and as her only successes have been at allowance level, it can be understood why the oddsmakers don’t seem to be concerned in regard to her chances. Her 1st start as a 4 yo did show some improvement over her 3yo year, but looks more like a bounce than something solid for trainer “harasauxerre” to hang their hat on. Definitely at the expected level odds wise.
Well, there you are old mate my best effort at handicapping this race for you. I would definitely ignore that dead cert you were given mate. I won’t say any more than some trainers over-estimate both their and their horses abilities so it is definitely wise to be careful before you listen to their advice or tips.
Personally, I wouldn’t wager a cent on this race as nothing stands out above the field but if pressed I would have to slot the No 2. Free and Free in as my top pick and deserved favourite
For the exotics I select
2 – 6 – 7 – 4 but suggest a box exacta and trifecta
Good punting all
Darcy “Dingo” MacPhee
Poor write-up where you take shots at horses. Bad form. No one wants to read that about their runners. Especially when they end up outrunning the odds.
Thanks mate, nice write up.
Good to see some variation in the article. I reckon if these horses were real instead of just cartoons you might have upset a few, but fortunately for you, cartoon horses are just that. If I ever get a horse good enough to compete, I’ll let you know and give you my express permission for a “fair dinkum” assesment