G1 Happy New Year Preview
Here is the field of 14 juveniles who will be battling to take down this Grade 1 race:
#1 Olympic Curlin (Northwest Racing Circuit) 7/1
Top Speed: 100.1 (3 of 14)
Breeding: Scratch breed. #14 sire Curlin leads the pedigree that finishes with a Street Cry x Unbridled cross. Curlin has 93 winners (6 stakes) out of 200 runners this season.
Summary: He has had a very interesting path to this point in the season. The #4 best juvenile sprinter in the game will try his hand at another route where he only has a 3rd place showing to his name. This is quite different from the 5 for 5 ITM when sprinting including a victory in the G1 Hopeless. As a first time gelding, he put up a 100 speed figure last time going long, so maybe he is turning the corner there. It was 1 of the 3 triple digit figures found in this race.
#2 Faulty Line (Elite Racing Club) 19/1
Top Speed: 99.8 (4 of 14)
Breeding: GP Dam Not Aly’s Fault produced two claiming types before hitting with this one. Sired by #77 Firing Line who has 14 winners (1 stake) out of 25 runners this season.
Summary: He was a somewhat consistent sort when sprinting earlier in the season, but since he stretched out to those routes he has looked like a different type. Ranked #14 best, he is 2 for 2 routing with a win in the G2 Club Stakes going the same distance as today. His 99 speed figure fits near the top here, so based off that dominating performance should have every chance to do it again here.
#3 Kodak Black (Drunken Jockeys Club) 11/1
Top Speed: 98.1 (T9 of 14)
Breeding: Scratch breed. #4 sire Medaglia D’Oro leads the pedigree that finishes with a Seattle Slew x Danzig cross. Medaglia D’Oro has 127 winners (11 stakes) out of 252 runners this season.
Summary: 7 of 7 ITM to start his career, but only two victories to show for it. Majority of his races have been in allowance company, but did take down the Rhibus Dirt two back. He tried graded company for the first time last out and after leading much of the way, faded to third in the G2 Club Stakes. The top two (Faulty Line, Practical Justice) from that come back here, so he will have to flip those results to be competitive in this one.
#4 Charles Oakley (No Residency) 15/1
Top Speed: 94.3 (14 of 14)
Breeding: This is the first offspring for Dam Gumball Coaster. Knicks Go is the #45 sire who has produced 42 winners (1 stake) out of 101 runners this season.
Summary: This will be the first route for him, as the previous 6 races have all been sprints. He has come in the top two 5 of those times with a trio of seconds in graded company (G1 HAPPY EASTER, G1 HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY, G1 BB Juvenile Sprint). He finished three spots higher than More Tothe South in the BB Sprint, so might have an advantage over him. The big question of course is how will he do first time routing in a pretty strong G1 field?
#5 More Tothe South (Pastures of Green) 13/1
Top Speed: 97.2 (12 of 14)
Breeding: SP Dam Stormy Petrel has produced two other SW’s, but this one is the first of a graded variety. More Than Ready is the #13 sire this season with 99 winners (7 stakes) out of 185 runners.
Summary: First 6 races were all top 2 finishes with the last in the G1 BB Juvenile Sprint the only blemish. He came 5th in that race, and looks to get back to a route here. The only other route was a 2nd in the G1 North Fork, where he finished in 2nd, 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner Side of Violence. He is ranked the #10 best juvenile and will look to take this field gate to wire.
#6 Practical Justice (GR Simsters) 10/1
Top Speed: 98.1 (T9 of 14)
Breeding: GP Dam Alley Justice has produced 4 SW’s (Including a G2) in her 11 offspring. Sire Practical Joke is #91 this season with 77 winners (5 stakes) out of 134 runners.
Summary: Only 4 races in his career and won the first 2 in allowance company before he stepped up into stakes. Didn’t really fire in the G1 Sparkling Wine where he came a non-threatening 7th, but looked much more the part coming on late to finish 2nd in the G2 Club Stakes last out. Faulty Line took that one down at big odds. Which one of those stake performances will we see here?
#7 Lorne Americium (MIDAS) 7/1
Top Speed: 99.0 (7 of 14)
Breeding: Dam GP Outback Americium has produced 2 other SW’s out of 7 offspring. #1 Tapit is the sire. He has produced 278 winners (14 stakes) out of 462 runners this season.
Summary: 5 for 5 ITM, but this will be his first attempt in graded company. Looked nice in local stakes as he took down the Spaztown and Colonel Prospector, which was his initial try going long. Have to be excited with the step up in that one and has every right to keep improving going the same distance. Co-favorite might be a bit much for the #76 juvenile, but wouldn’t be a complete surprise.
#8 Drengiligr (GR Simsters) 9/1
Top Speed: 97.7 (11 of 14)
Breeding: Scratch breed. #1 sire Tapit leads the pedigree that finishes with a Sadler’s Wells x Storm Cat cross. Tapit has 278 winners (14 stakes) out of 462 runners this season.
Summary: He finished one spot ahead of Side of Violence in the BB Juvenile last out, coming 3rd in the G1 event. The only other route he was involved in was a nice victory in the G3 Buckeye. His speed figure doesn’t put him near the top of this field, but his result in the BB should matter. He is the #16 juvenile and that field was loaded. So, does the higher speed figures in lower races matter, or decent speed figures in big races? Interesting how this one plays out.
#9 Destination Derby (All-Stars Racing) 14/1
Top Speed: 98.3 (8 of 14)
Breeding: G2 winning Dam Navigating has produced 9 offspring with this one being the 3rd SW. #263 sire Declaration of War has produced 21 winners (1 stake) out of 83 runners this season.
Summary: 3 for 3 lifetime. Not a bad start for the horse with high hopes in the name. Won his first two going the allowance route and made the jump into a local stake for his third start. He came from off the pace to get up comfortably to take down the Whoops Apocalypse. This is the next logical step and if he continues to improve definitely fits with those in here.
#10 Violent Package (Elite Racing Club) 10/1
Top Speed: 99.6 (T5 of 14)
Breeding: Dam Violence Worship has 4 offspring with this being the first SW. Sire #149 Midshipman has 17 winners (2 stakes) out of 44 runners this season.
Summary: Interesting one as it usually takes him a race at each level before he wins. Did it with his maiden and allowance wins, and even when he took down the Ruud Van N. Dirt, it was his second local stakes appearance. He tried the G3 Pleasure Stakes last out and came a hard closing third. Only was 27 days ago, so the juvenile is making the most out of his successful season. Might like more distance as he gets older.
#11 Side of Violence (Pastures of Green) 7/1
Top Speed: 99.6 (T5 of 14)
Breeding: First stakes winner out of 12 tries for dam Ham Ontheside. Violence is the #5 sire this season with 55 winners (2 stakes) out of 111 runners.
Summary: Won three in a row to start his career, including the G1 HAPPY EASTER. In fact, this one never finished outside of the top two until his last, which was a 4th place showing in the G1 BB Juvenile. He has won over $1 million this season (Other wins the G2 Hoserhead, G1 North Fork) and sits at #1 atop the rankings. Feel he has a legitimate shot to get his 6th win of the season.
#12 Stormflurry (GR Simsters) 9/1
Top Speed: 96.7 (13 of 14)
Breeding: SW Dam Jenius has one other offspring SW out of her 4. Uncle Mo is the #42 sire this season with 83 winners (3 stakes) out of 186 runners.
Summary: This one battled through the allowance ranks winning 3 of 5 to start his career. His first stakes action was last out in the G2 Ransom where he came on late to get up for a second place showing. That one was .5 furlong longer than here, so will be cutting back in distance. Seemed to like that extra distance, so not sure cutting back is beneficial. However, the last win did come at a mile.
#13 Varang (No Residency) 10/1
Top Speed: 101.8 (1 of 14)
Breeding: Scratch breed. #11 sire Into Mischief leads the pedigree that finishes with a Arrogate x A.P. Indy cross. Into Mischief has 129 winners (10 stakes) out of 265 runners this season.
Summary: Is 5 for 5 ITM in this career, and coming in off a 2 race win streak in local stakes. Took down the Anaheim Ducks and Orca Dirt both at today’s distance. Have to like the progression and the ease he won his last one while still posting the biggest figure in this field. Have to like his chances to keep rolling here. My pick to win it all.
#14 Tap’s Devil (DelPenn National) 8/1
Top Speed: 100.9 (2 of 14)
Breeding: This is the first offspring from SW Dam Sheez A Devil. Sired by #1 Tapit. He has produced 278 winners (14 stakes) out of 462 runners this season.
Summary: This will be his first graded race as he has worked through each of the levels. Scratch the first race of his career as it seems to be an outlier. Since then he is 4 for 4 ITM, with 3 victories, including a very easy win in the Kristopher S. Dirt the last time out. He ran a big figure in that race and if he can do that here will be very competitive. Hasn’t faced a field like this before, will that impact him?
My Predictions
#13 (Varang) : Feel like he is hot right now and will keep improving. Make it three in a row for him.
#11 (Side of Violence) : Ranked #1 for a reason. Will face some quickly improving newcomers. Will have every chance to win.
#1 (Olympic Curlin) : The last jump in figure as a gelding wasn’t a fluke. Comes rolling late but just comes up short.