The Dreaded 1/5

Has this ever happened to you?

A walkover type horse in a four horse field gets assigned odds of 1/5 on the morning line.

Yes, we know the odds are based on CPU values compared to the rest of the field, which is roughly analogous to an average of the last 5 speed figures, for horses that have run a bunch.

It’s not a true measure of the horse’s chance to win, since distance and surface is not considered at all in the calculation.

But 1/5… I have lost more races as a 1/5 favorite than any other value, and have come to accept it as the kiss of death. I automatically assume I did something wrong if one of my horses gets this designation… whether the horse is unsound, won’t like the surface, or distance, or racing out of condition… the computer knows something that I don’t.

BUT… (there’s always a big butt, if you look hard enough)

I received a 1/5 ML for my horse GIANT IGGLE, entered to run this Thursday. Although a bid race for another more prominent trainer, the N1Y conditions for 3yo fit my guy perfectly… he was stakes placed last out, so this is a precipitous drop. His speed figures tower over the field… the surface should be fine & the distance is a minor question mark, but only 100m longer than his last effort.

Still, I expect to lose.

Past Performances – Giant Iggle