Hoserhead Juvenile (G2) – 7F Dirt Sprint for 2yo’s
Sunday, July 19, 2020 — 2:30:00 PM EST
British Columbia – Grade II – Purse : $375,000
7 Furlongs – Fast Dirt – Restricted to 2 Year Olds
Watch Race – 3D Viewer – Watch Race – 2D Viewer
Post 1 – TAPIT TWOWAYS – 7/2
TAPIT TWOWAYS is sired by TAPIT and is running for the sojourneys stable. TAPIT TWOWAYS has won in 1 times in 2 starts for a 50% win rate and will be ridden by jockey I Selby (177 17-30-29 10%) from Ontario-CAN.
12 Month Top Speed: 78 (7)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 2 – VALUE INCLUDED – 24/1
VALUE INCLUDED is sired by CATALINA RED and is running for the bigsteve1 stable. VALUE INCLUDED has won in 2 times in 2 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey E Sharp (2416 599-426-380 25%) from Ohio.
12 Month Top Speed: 73
(12)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 3 – BEFORE TINTED MUSK – 16/1
BEFORE TINTED MUSK is sired by YOCKEY’S WARRIOR and is running for the brit0 stable. BEFORE TINTED MUSK has won in 2 times in 7 starts for a 29% win rate and will be ridden by jockey R Zombie (383 39-67-66 10%) from Arizona.
12 Month Top Speed: 79
(5)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 4 – SARATOGA LEMON – 15/1
SARATOGA LEMON is sired by MIDNIGHT STORM and is running for the lightng104 stable. SARATOGA LEMON has won in 1 times in 1 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey D Stayright ( — %) from .
12 Month Top Speed: 72
(13)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 5 – AMERICAN CHORUS – 5/1
AMERICAN CHORUS is sired by AMERICAN PHAROAH and is running for the americanasr stable. AMERICAN CHORUS has won in 1 times in 3 starts for a 33% win rate and will be ridden by jockey B Scott (1864 484-351-237 26%) from Massachusetts.
12 Month Top Speed: 82
(2)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 6 – CITY OF JUBA – 18/1
CITY OF JUBA is sired by JUBA and is running for the graywolf8 stable. CITY OF JUBA has won in 3 times in 3 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey M Staples (2040 284-284-292 14%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 79
(5)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 7 – HILLS IN THE ZOU – 13/1
HILLS IN THE ZOU is sired by ZOUSTAR (AUS) and is running for the corza5 stable. HILLS IN THE ZOU has won in 1 times in 1 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey C Orza (2605 472-349-334 18%) from New York.
12 Month Top Speed: 60
(14)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 8 – NO KEG UNTAPPED – 5/1
NO KEG UNTAPPED is sired by NO NAY NEVER and is running for the beerkeg0 stable. NO KEG UNTAPPED has won in 2 times in 3 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey R Hansen (1197 148-123-156 12%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 82
(2)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 9 – INSTANT REFUND – 17/1
INSTANT REFUND is sired by THIRSTY GIANT and is running for the jdawg11 stable. INSTANT REFUND has won in 2 times in 2 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey J Dawg (1323 290-257-210 22%) from Wyoming.
12 Month Top Speed: 76
(8)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 10 – PHRIESAN FIRE – 20/1
PHRIESAN FIRE is sired by FRIESAN FIRE and is running for the deepesr stable. PHRIESAN FIRE has won in 1 times in 3 starts for a 33% win rate and will be ridden by jockey H Desitter (2004 534-406-326 27%) from Nebraska.
12 Month Top Speed: 74
(10)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 11 – NOT A SINGLE SPRAY – 13/1
NOT A SINGLE SPRAY is sired by NOT A SINGLE DOUBT (AUS) and is running for the debsestate stable. NOT A SINGLE SPRAY has won in 1 times in 6 starts for a 17% win rate and will be ridden by jockey C Winter (2997 467-473-392 16%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 76
(8)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 12 – OMEGA WIND – 5/1
OMEGA WIND is sired by STREET SENSE and is running for the buffy7 stable. OMEGA WIND has won in 1 times in 3 starts for a 33% win rate and will be ridden by jockey E Seifert (1617 390-290-230 24%) from Argentina.
12 Month Top Speed: 81
(4)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 13 – I LIKE WHAT I LIKE – 24/1
I LIKE WHAT I LIKE is sired by OUTWORK and is running for the cardshark stable. I LIKE WHAT I LIKE has won in 2 times in 2 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey L Kraft (1722 406-368-265 24%) from Michigan.
12 Month Top Speed: 74
(10)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 14 – TAX A CROSS – 11/1
TAX A CROSS is sired by SHOOTING TO WIN and is running for the darkstars16 stable. TAX A CROSS has won in 2 times in 4 starts for a 50% win rate and will be ridden by jockey Q Piekarski (747 209-102-73 28%) from Arizona.
12 Month Top Speed: 84 (1)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Kegger’s Pace Projection
| # | Horse | C1 | C2 | C3 | Fin |
| 7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 9 | INSTANT REFUND | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 14 | TAX A CROSS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 4 | -0.25 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 10 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 1 | TAPIT TWOWAYS | -0.50 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2 | -0.63 | -1.00 | -0.13 | 0.00 | |
| 6 | CITY OF JUBA | -1.42 | -2.00 | -0.92 | 0.00 |
| 8 | NO KEG UNTAPPED | -2.00 | -2.75 | -1.13 | 0.00 |
| 3 | BEFORE TINTED MUSK | -2.25 | -2.88 | -1.63 | 0.00 |
| 5 | AMERICAN CHORUS | -2.25 | -2.75 | -0.25 | 0.00 |
| 13 | -2.38 | -3.63 | -2.63 | 0.00 | |
| 11 | NOT A SINGLE SPRAY | -2.75 | -4.25 | -2.50 | 0.00 |
| 12 | OMEGA WIND | -2.75 | -4.00 | -2.50 | 0.00 |
This field has four runners who stand ahead of the rest as my favourites to have the best shot at taking home this graded run: AMERICAN CHORUS, NO KEG UNTAPPED, OMEGA WIND, and TAX A CROSS. There are other solid contenders who with a perfect run could find themselves on-top, however these are the four I would focus building any bets around.
Out of the gate there are a few with a history of success jumping to the early lead: INSTANT REFUND, TAX A CROSS, and TAPIT TWOWAYS are three of the main contenders who are expected to have a good chance at the holeshot. TAX A CROSS comes in with the highest past speed, and has gone to the lead in his two career victories, including his stakes win where he was head to head the entire race until pulling ahead at the wire. However in his last race where he hit his high speed he was pulled back and ran mid pack until closing within a half length of taking home a graded victory at the ‘4th of July’ (G3). If he is sent to the front, I would expect TAX A CROSS to take the holeshot and set the pace in another wire to wire attempt, however if he is held off the lead again then I would expect INSTANT REFUND and TAPIT TWOWAYS to fight it out for the early lead.
Behind the lead back the stalkers of note in this field are: BEFORE TINTED MUSK, AMERICAN CHORUS, CITY OF JUBA and NO KEG UNTAPPED. These four should be expected to be seen 2-3 lengths off the lead in the early race before making their move into the stretch. The first of the the two favourites in this group, AMERICAN CHORUS, has fallen further behind in the last two races after his maiden victory, and was unable to close the gap as he did in his debut. Both races were at the graded level, so it would be expected the competition was stiffer, however a key for success for AMERICAN CHORUS will likely be the ability to stick within striking distance of the pace setters. The second stalker of note is NO KEG UNTAPPED who is making a return to the dirt track after an unsuccessful attempt on the turf track. NO KEG UNTAPPED will be looking to return to early form where he was able to sit off the lead and make a strong push down the stretch to pull off to at-least a length ahead of the rest of the pack.
At the back of the pack NOT A SINGLE SPRAY and OMEGA WIND are expected to save their energy for a late rally. OMEGA WIND is the favoured closer to mount a threat to fire down the stretch, having come from almost five lengths off the lead in his last race where he caught the leader at the wire, but was overtaken by another closer. I wouldn’t expect there to be any threats coming from behind OMEGA WIND in this field, so it will be up to his jockey to control the timing of his close to push in time to challenge the rest of the field.
Kegger’s Predictions
Holeshot: TAX A CROSS (11/1)
Favourite: NO KEG UNTAPPED (5/1)
Longshot: TAX A CROSS (11/1)