Hoserhead Juvenile Fillies (G2) – 6.5F Dirt Sprint for 2yo Fillies
Saturday, July 18, 2020 — 2:30:00 PM EST
British Columbia – Grade II – Purse : $375,000
6.5 Furlongs – Fast Dirt – Restricted to 2 Year Olds
Watch Race – 3D Viewer – Watch Race – 2D Viewer
Post 1 – CARRY ME – 17/1
CARRY ME is sired by MONTEROSSO and is running for the jockeyrobledo4 stable. CARRY ME has won in 2 times in 8 starts for a 25% win rate and will be ridden by jockey T Buzz (213 22-25-31 10%) from British Columbia-CAN.
12 Month Top Speed: 76 (6)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 2 – IGNORE THE NOISE – 13/1
IGNORE THE NOISE is sired by NICANOR and is running for the alysalley stable. IGNORE THE NOISE has won in 3 times in 5 starts for a 60% win rate and will be ridden by jockey V Jef (1335 279-240-177 21%) from Idaho.
12 Month Top Speed: 80
(1)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 3 – STORMY SALLY – 7/1
STORMY SALLY is sired by STORMY ATLANTIC and is running for the haymarket stable. STORMY SALLY has won in 4 times in 9 starts for a 44% win rate and will be ridden by jockey P Bickett (253 27-38-35 11%) from British Columbia-CAN.
12 Month Top Speed: 77
(4)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 4 – CARTOGRAFIA – 34/1
CARTOGRAFIA is sired by THUNDER DOWN UNDER (AUS) and is running for the jockeyrobledo4 stable. CARTOGRAFIA has won in 1 times in 7 starts for a 14% win rate and will be ridden by jockey T Widdle (114 9-11-18 8%) from British Columbia-CAN.
12 Month Top Speed: 68
(12)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 5 – SMART STAY – 5/1
SMART STAY is sired by AUDIBLE and is running for the vicodo stable. SMART STAY has won in 2 times in 4 starts for a 50% win rate and will be ridden by jockey E N Tice (1166 237-223-193 20%) from Idaho.
12 Month Top Speed: 80
(1)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 6 – HAZOREA – 19/1
HAZOREA is sired by SOUTHERN LIGHTS (JPN) and is running for the jockeyrobledo32 stable. HAZOREA has won in 1 times in 6 starts for a 17% win rate and will be ridden by jockey F Wesslen (134 11-18-16 8%) from British Columbia-CAN.
12 Month Top Speed: 72
(10)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 7 – DA BIG CRIMSON – 14/1
DA BIG CRIMSON is sired by DA BIG HOSS and is running for the upontop stable. DA BIG CRIMSON has won in 2 times in 6 starts for a 33% win rate and will be ridden by jockey B Rahill (485 65-61-72 13%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 75
(7)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 8 – LOCKED IN STONE – 6/1
LOCKED IN STONE is sired by DISTORTED HUMOR and is running for the asrdistorted1 stable. LOCKED IN STONE has won in 2 times in 2 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey K Proehl (2106 497-385-347 24%) from Oregon.
12 Month Top Speed: 73
(9)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 9 – STORMPIRE – 7/1
STORMPIRE is sired by CLASSIC EMPIRE and is running for the 2020massatoga2 stable. STORMPIRE has won in 2 times in 4 starts for a 50% win rate and will be ridden by jockey C Winter (2997 467-473-392 16%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 75
(7)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 10 – ITSHELLTOGETOLD – 5/1
ITSHELLTOGETOLD is sired by VAR and is running for the simsters4 stable. ITSHELLTOGETOLD has won in 2 times in 3 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey E Banner (658 117-94-105 18%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 77
(4)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 11 – CAPE HUGHES – 17/1
CAPE HUGHES is sired by HENNY HUGHES and is running for the pecos196 stable. CAPE HUGHES has won in 1 times in 4 starts for a 25% win rate and will be ridden by jockey J Sands (1802 445-355-286 25%) from Wyoming.
12 Month Top Speed: 70
(11)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 12 – LEMONGRASE – 49/1
LEMONGRASE is sired by YOSHIDA and is running for the deepesr0 stable. LEMONGRASE has won in 0 times in 1 starts for a 0% win rate and will be ridden by jockey A Porcher (214 15-23-36 7%) from British Columbia-CAN.
12 Month Top Speed: 54
(14)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 13 – HOT PANTS HILLIARD – 23/1
HOT PANTS HILLIARD is sired by MOR SPIRIT and is running for the hotstuff stable. HOT PANTS HILLIARD has won in 3 times in 3 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey J White (3013 466-470-412 15%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 59
(13)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 14 – INFERNO HELLION – 5/1
INFERNO HELLION is sired by CURLIN and is running for the beermug stable. INFERNO HELLION has won in 1 times in 2 starts for a 50% win rate and will be ridden by jockey R Hansen (1197 148-123-156 12%) from California.
12 Month Top Speed: 79 (3)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Kegger’s Pace Projection
| # | Horse | C1 | C2 | C3 | Fin |
| 2 | IGNORE THE NOISE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 9 | STORMPIRE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 | -2.25 | |
| 13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 8 | LOCKED IN STONE | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 6 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 11 | -0.50 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 1 | CARRY ME | -1.50 | -2.00 | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| 4 | -1.50 | -2.00 | -0.75 | 0.00 | |
| 7 | DA BIG CRIMSON | -1.50 | -2.00 | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| 3 | STORMY SALLY | -1.75 | -2.44 | -0.88 | 0.00 |
| 5 | SMART STAY | -2.25 | -3.13 | -1.13 | 0.00 |
| 14 | INFERNO HELLION | -2.25 | -3.25 | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| 10 | ITSHELLTOGETOLD | -2.50 | -3.50 | -1.50 | 0.00 |
Out of the gates there three solid contenders for the holeshot: IGNORE THE NOISE, STORMPIRE, and LOCKED IN STONE. All three have jumped to the early lead or at least maintained within a half length of the lead and should be seen at the front early. Aside from IGNORE THE NOISE, the rest of the projected favourites are expected to sit off the pack and make a last push for the lead.
IGNORE THE NOISE took a big leap forward in its last run holding on for a third place finish at the ‘Butterfly Futurity’ (G3) where she posted a field high speed figure, following up a second place finish at the ‘Unusual Circumstances Juvenile’ (G3). IGNORE THE NOISE is my top pick to set the pace, as she has proven capable of breaking for a solo lead and contending in a tight race including taking the lead by the 2nd call after breaking a head behind in her graded debut.
STORMPIRE is the fields lone graded winner, with an early G3 victory at the ‘Arizona Shoot-Out Special’ (G3) in April. This was followed by a disappointing 10th place finish at the ‘Stoker Handicap’ (G2) where she failed to lock down the early lead and faded down the stretch, a strong break and taking the lead early may be vital to STORMPIRE’s chances for success.
LOCKED IN STONE is the last of the front runner contenders and has posted a perfect 2-0 record early in her career, and will be making her stakes debut. Her speed figures aren’t up with the favourites, however she does have a solid pedigree and has pulled out to a length or more lead in her two victories thus far suggesting she may have more in the tank when going against a tougher field.
CARRY ME has had the most success when she is able to stalk within two lengths of the leaders, however since jumping up to stakes races she has had a little trouble falling too far behind early. She is coming off a disappointing 8th place finish in her Graded debut at the ‘CANADA DAY’ (G3) just two weeks ago and it will be interesting to see if she can bounce back after such a short rest.
DA BIG CRIMSON is coming back to the dirt track after testing the turf for her last two runs, including a local allowance win in her last outing against the boys. There is a large unknown here as her last dirt speed likely won’t be enough to push to the front, it has been three months since her last dirt race, and if she responds well to the surface change she could be threat to the favourites.
STORMY SALLY has been jumping between surfaces, having posted solid speeds on both the dirt and turf track, although more successful on the turf side so far with two stakes wins. Gap control may be crucial for STORMY SALLY as she seems to need to remain within 3 lengths of the leaders to perform at her best, as the two races she has let herself fall further behind she also failed to mount a push down the stretch.
SMART STAY matched the field high speed figure of 80 in her last run, a third place finish in the ‘Stoker Handicap’ where she mounted a strong closing effort from over six lengths back but was passed by a deeper closer down the stretch run. A similar run in this race is likely with four of five favourites expected to sit off the pace, jockey E N Tice will need to remain alert to both the leaders and the movements of the rest of the closing pack to avoid being overtaken again by a deeper closer.
INFERNO HELLION will be making her stakes debut, and comes in off a second place allowance finish where her speed figures improved off her maiden debut, but was not able to hold off the deep closer after briefly taking the lead down the stretch. Much like SMART STAY, INFERNO HELLION will need to be ridden with awareness of the actions of the other closers to maximize her chances of success.
ITSHELLTOGETOLD made the jump to Graded Stakes in her last run, having come all the way from the back of the pack, but falling short with a fourth place finish as she was unable to catch the leaders who held on down the stretch. If she can see a jump in speed she may be that deep closing threat for the other closers to be aware of as they make their push down the stretch.
Kegger’s Predictions
Holeshot: IGNORE THE NOISE (13/1)
Favourite: INFERNO HELLION (5/1)
Longshot: IGNORE THE NOISE (13/1)