Lean Machine Stakes (G2) – Dirt Sprint for 2yo Fillies
Saturday, July 4, 2020 — 2:30:00 PM EST
Michigan – Grade II – Purse : $375,000
6.5 Furlongs – Fast Dirt – Restricted to 2 Year Olds, Fillies Only
Watch Race – 3D Viewer – Watch Race – 2D Viewer
Post 1 – SUNDAY KEGGER – 4/1
SUNDAY KEGGER is sired by QUALITY ROAD and is running for the beermug stable. SUNDAY KEGGER has won in 0 times in 1 starts for a 0% win rate and will be ridden by jockey T O’Conner (1069 206-194-151 19%) from Indiana.
12 Month Top Speed: 79 (3)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 2 – MCCRAKEN RUM – 8/1
MCCRAKEN RUM is sired by MCCRAKEN and is running for the loves3 stable. MCCRAKEN RUM has won in 1 times in 1 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey P Fuller (106 9-28-9 8%) from Michigan.
12 Month Top Speed: 71
(8)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 3 – TARA TELLER – 9/1
TARA TELLER is sired by ESKENDEREYA and is running for the bronx stable. TARA TELLER has won in 2 times in 3 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey V Gardner (2745 581-452-381 21%) from Florida.
12 Month Top Speed: 73
(7)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 4 – KOWHAI – 11/1
KOWHAI is sired by WAR CHANT and is running for the derbyking stable. KOWHAI has won in 1 times in 1 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey CT Euler (190 23-31-29 12%) from Indiana.
12 Month Top Speed: 66
(11)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 5 – TEMPT THE LION – 10/1
TEMPT THE LION is sired by CURLIN and is running for the lenny20 stable. TEMPT THE LION has won in 2 times in 2 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey R Bokie (2106 516-370-333 25%) from Virginia.
12 Month Top Speed: 66
(11)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 6 – HIGHEST ARCHANGEL – 7/1
HIGHEST ARCHANGEL is sired by MORE THAN READY and is running for the luvit stable. HIGHEST ARCHANGEL has won in 2 times in 3 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey D Agmara (517 93-79-68 18%) from Illinois.
12 Month Top Speed: 80
(2)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 7 – FLEETWOOD BURG – 15/1
FLEETWOOD BURG is sired by CONQUEST CURLINATE and is running for the jeter stable. FLEETWOOD BURG has won in 3 times in 5 starts for a 60% win rate and will be ridden by jockey G McGraw (184 15-19-29 8%) from Florida.
12 Month Top Speed: 74
(6)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 8 – SCAT DANCING DEB – 16/1
SCAT DANCING DEB is sired by ALWAYS DREAMING and is running for the theprofit7 stable. SCAT DANCING DEB has won in 1 times in 1 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey T Mafit (572 94-101-82 16%) from Indiana.
12 Month Top Speed: 70
(10)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 9 – FLEETWOOD COBRA – 8/1
FLEETWOOD COBRA is sired by NYQUIST and is running for the fleetwood stable. FLEETWOOD COBRA has won in 2 times in 3 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey D Herren (334 38-30-40 11%) from Florida.
12 Month Top Speed: 75
(5)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Post 10 – BENEFIT ANALYSIS – 10/1
BENEFIT ANALYSIS is sired by LIAM’S MAP and is running for the orderofstgeorge stable. BENEFIT ANALYSIS has won in 1 times in 1 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey E Sharp (2416 599-426-380 25%) from Ohio.
12 Month Top Speed: 71
(8)
Kegger’s Projection: Long Shot
Post 11 – ELUSIVE MELODY – 7/1
ELUSIVE MELODY is sired by MACLEAN’S MUSIC and is running for the given7 stable. ELUSIVE MELODY has won in 2 times in 2 starts for a 100% win rate and will be ridden by jockey O A Haack (2708 559-472-370 21%) from Florida.
12 Month Top Speed: 82
(1)
Kegger’s Projection: Favourite
Post 12 – GILFOYLE – 8/1
GILFOYLE is sired by UNION RAGS and is running for the teamasr5 stable. GILFOYLE has won in 2 times in 3 starts for a 67% win rate and will be ridden by jockey B Orazio (1755 358-304-263 20%) from Illinois.
12 Month Top Speed: 77 (4)
Kegger’s Projection: Contender
Kegger’s Pace Projection
| C1 | C2 | C3 | Fin | |
| BENEFIT ANALYSIS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TEMPT THE LION | -0.38 | -0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| FLEETWOOD COBRA | -0.63 | -0.88 | -0.25 | 0.00 |
| GILFOYLE | -0.75 | -0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SUNDAY KEGGER | -1.25 | -1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| HIGHEST ARCHANGEL | -1.38 | -1.75 | -0.25 | 0.00 |
| ELUSIVE MELODY | -1.88 | -2.63 | -0.75 | 0.00 |
| MCCRAKEN RUM | -2.25 | -3.25 | -1.75 | 0.00 |
| KOWHAI | -2.25 | -3.50 | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| FLEETWOOD BURG | -2.50 | -3.67 | -2.08 | 0.00 |
| SCAT DANCING DEB | -3.25 | -4.75 | -2.75 | 0.00 |
| TARA TELLER | -3.50 | -5.00 | -2.75 | 0.00 |
*Based on average lengths behind leader in winning runs.
*Projected Favourites in Bold
*Projected Long Shots Italicized
BENEFIT ANALYSIS, TEMPT THE LION, FLEETWOOD COBRA, and GILFOYLE are projected to form the lead pack. BENEFIT ANALYSIS went wire-to-wire in her debut and only race, while TEMPT THE LION wired the field in her 2nd outing after stalking the leader in her debut. Both should fight for the holeshot, however they will be closely followed by FLEETWOOD COBRA and GILFOYLE who are both projected to sit within a length of the leaders making their push by the third checkpoint.
SUNDAY KEGGER, HIGHEST ARCHANGEL, and ELUSIVE MELODY are the three favourites in the field, and all three are expected to sit within two lengths of the leaders. SUNDAY KEGGER has been picked as the odds-on favourite, however she is also the only runner in the field who has yet to notch a victory having been overtaken by a quarter length at the wire. HIGHEST ARCHANGEL is coming off a Grade 3 victory in her last race, as the only graded winner in the pack she will be expected to put up a fight for a perfect graded record. ELUSIVE MELODY is undefeated after posting a huge speed jump in her stakes debut, which is the high speed for this field, if she can hold form its hard to think she won’t be ready for her graded debut. There would be little surprise if these three manage to stick within a length of eachother all race and pull off a 1-2-3 finish, the order though is likely a toss-up.
MCCRAKEN RUM, KOWHAI, FLEETWOOD BURG, SCAT DANCING DEB and TARA TELLER are all projected to sit to the back of the field out of the gate looking to make their push late down the stretch. Most of the closing pack are long-shots who will need a huge jump in speed to be able to close in on the favourites who should be able to ensure the eventual winner will put up a top 2yo run. FLEETWOOD BURG stands out among the closers with a stakes win under her belt as well as a 3rd place victory in a May Grade 3 race, if she can show improvement she may be able to mount a push from the back of the pack.
Kegger’s Predictions
Favourite: HIGHEST ARCHANGEL (7/1)
Longshot Pick: FLEETWOOD BURG (15/1)