Irish Oaks, a 12-furlong turf test for 3yo fillies

by kiddman (submitted by beerkeg due to technical difficulties)

Sunday’s Irish Oaks, a 12-furlong turf test for 3yo fillies, has drawn a spectacularly talented full field of 14 young equine starlets that have come from all over the Sim world to vie for this prestigious trophy.  

The field includes the current #1-ranked Long Turf 3yo filly, PARRISH HILL.  Despite that ranking, though, she is not the morning-line favorite.  That honor goes to Japanese Oaks champ MOON JUMPER, and also to Italian Oaks champ HUSHWING GOSHAWK.

While the above three are clearly deserving of merit, there are quite a few others in this field with a real shot at pulling an upset.  This is evidenced by the fact that in this 14-horse field, only one runner faces odds of beyond 20-1.

Let’s fire open the ol’ digital fishwrap and have a look at the field:

1) GALILEO GRINER (24/1) is the longest price on the board, and this Ianwhipkey trainee will need a gargantuan leap forward in order to have any success with these.  The Galileo filly does possess some early speed, however, and should at least keep the early pace honest.  Her one graded-stakes try wasn’t awful, but…  Not a whole lot of realistic hope here.

2) HUSHWING GOSHAWK (6/1) just won the Grade 2 Italian Oaks at 11 furlongs, and did it with apparent ease.  The Dubawi filly is coming along very nicely for the Hushwing stable group and may take a liking to the added furlong of today’s distance.  Co-favored by the punters, she has topped 100 on the speed gun in each of her last three tries.  Could “bounce” in her eighth start of 2020, though.

3) PARRISH HILL (7/1) is 4-for-4 since stretching out to classic distances, the last pair being Grade 1’s, the Sydney Oaks and the Oaks de English.  The Winterset trainee has never been off-the-board at all, not even in her first two tries on dirt.  Obviously, this Tapit filly’s female side has been the decider for her in surface preference.  This one could be any kinda good.

4) FLINT MICHIGAN (18/1) has yet to run a triple-digit speed figure, but she dominated her foes last time while barely missing that mark in her return to grass racing.  A daughter of Flintshire out of a Frankel mare, her bloodlines are definitely blue as can be, and the Tenpoint trainee is starting to come around.  Her time for competing well against top runners is probably not quite here yet, though.  Should be on or near the front end.

5) JUST A WASP (13/1) had a terrific freshman year, but 2020 hasn’t been quite so kind.  From the Lightng99 stable group, she has managed one Grade 1 this year, the 9-furlong Vermont Is 4 Lovers Stakes.  A daughter of Japanese sire Just A Way, she was stretched out to 11 furlongs last time and she faded late.  She’ll need a huge effort to have much success here.

6) GUAFITA (8/1) finished a distant 4th to PARRISH HILL last time out, in her first try vs. graded company.  That was only the French-bred Siyouni filly’s eighth career start, so maybe the representative of Newmarket Racing Stable can make at least some improvement here..  The *cpu oddsmaker seems to think so…

7) MOON JUMPER (6/1) crushed the field in the Grade 1 Japanese Oaks at today’s distance last time out.  Undefeated beyond 10 furlongs, this Nextbonus trainee is certainly bred to love staying the route.  She’s a scratch-bred by Dubawi out of a Danehill mare and looks like a big star in the making.

8) LADY OF GALILEO (14/1) looked mighty spiffy in her graded-stakes debut last time out, rolling to victory in the 10.5-furlong Grade 3 Adorable Stakes.  Racing under the Stockswami colors, she is a daughter of Galileo out of a grade-placed King Kamehameha Sim mare, a pedigree that screams “stayer”.  Not as proven as some others in here, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see this one find her way onto the podium or at least grab some cash.

9) PHRONBAWI LV (7/1) is well-respected by the oddsmakers despite not having tried graded company thus far.  The Bizalls trainee is certainly bred for long-distance racing, being by Dubawi out of a Frankel mare, but she has only one unsuccessful stakes try and has never raced beyond 10.5 furlongs.  I’d side with others in this contest.

10) RESTRUCTURED LOAN (12/1) finished eight lengths behind PARRISH HILL last time out in the Oaks de English, but took top prize in the Grade 3 Cleopatra Stakes before that.  An American Pharoah filly from the AtTheWire stable group, she’s not without a shot at some cash here.

11) YAYYO (9/1) has only five career starts to her name, but she annexed the Grade 1 Adelaide Oaks at today’s distance and just before that whipped colts in a restricted allowance while posting a fancy 109 speed figure.  The Raven’s Pass filly races for the Houseriot stable group and looks poised for stardom.  Maybe it’ll start with an upset win today, or at least a strong run at it.

12) CARRYING ON (11/1) closed a huge amount of ground to finish 2nd in the 10.5-furlong Grade 1 French Diana Stakes last time out; maybe she can continue to defy her sprint-leaning pedigree here.  Her sire Harry Angel was all about sprinting is his career, but the representative of Spinround Racing doesn’t seem to have gotten that memo.  Class test here, but may have the ability to overcome.

13) ZOOWAH (12/1) finished far back in the Grade 1 Oaks de English, but looked good while winning the shorter Grade 1 Saint Larry in the start before that.  A daughter of Ulysses and granddaughter of Galileo on the male side, this runner from the Lightng99 stable group gives mixed signals at best.  

14) THE BIG LEAGUE (17/1) failed badly in the Grade 1 French Diana Stakes last time out, and the Bizalls Racing runner will need a huge improvement here.  A daughter of Galileo, she has plenty of “stayer” genes, but she hasn’t put it together yet.

*************

I’ll pick PARRISH HILL to get the win here; I just don’t think there are enough other early-speed types to make things uncomfortable for her.  

HUSHWING GOSHAWK and MOON JUMPER should battle it out for the place money.

Longshot chances: YAYYO and CARRYING ON.

Luck to all!