For a long time, I’ve been fighting the urge in trying to determine the odds of pulling an A rated sire card. I’ve only drawn one so far and that was maybe 2 years ago. Trading up to get to the A-card level takes another life time to achieve.
Back in late June, I decided to try to solve that urge and started to track the cards I’ve drawn. Some 5,000 cards later, I still have not drawn another A card, so I’m pretty sure the odds are 5,000-1 or higher.
I’m pretty sure I’ve figured out the chances of drawing the lower cards, mainly because their are such a high volume of them. Of course if the ratio is changed by the programmer, all of this number gathering becomes pointless.
Anyway, here’s what I have found. As of this writing, I have drawn 5,150 cards. Well, when you have nearly 60 stables, you do get a lot of decks of cards. Heck, with 52 cards in a deck, I nearly have had 100 decks flow through my hands.
Back to the analysis. 4,287 of these cards have flipped as G-sire cards. That’s 83% of the cards. Putting this into horse race perspective, you have a 6/5 odds chance of pulling a G-card.
The F-card is the next level and 723 of these cards have come my way, or 14%. This works out to just a smidge over 7/1 odds of walking away with an F-card.
As for the E-sire cards I have picked 122 of these, or about 2% of all cards are of the E variety. The betting line on this approximates 42/1.
I feel that the odds on the above cards is pretty accurate and reflect the over all chances of drawing these cards. The higher cards are a bit harder to determine the accuracy on my analysis as they are much harder to pick. Combined, the chances of drawing a D, C, B or A card are roughly 0.35%. You may get one of these in every 300 cards you earn. We’ll call this the “field”, similar to the longshots in a major race being bet collectively, but with odds of 300/1.
On an individual basis, the D-cards I drew totaled 13, or 0.25% which equates to odds at just below 400/1.
Moving up to the C-cards, I have been lucky enough to only get 3 of these or 0.058% of the time with longshot odds at just over 1,700/1.
Two B-cards were picked during this analysis, with an occurrence percentage of 0.039% and odds of 2,575/1.
No A-cards were drawn during this analysis. The number of C-cards (3) and B-Cards (2) are relatively close to each other so I don’t think the odds I have incurred are accurate. Realistically, I think I should have drawn one or two more C-cards or 1 less B-card.
Based on the history I have incurred, I would guess that the odds of drawing an A-card sit somewhere in the neighborhood of 5,000/1 to 10,000/1.
Again, I’m pretty certain of the accuracy of the odds on the lower cards. I have tested this through formulas by using these odds and predicting what the next 100, 200 or whatever cards I will draw will flip to. The actual numbers have been very close to the prediction. For instance, predicting the recent 250 cards I have drawn, the prediction came out to 208 G-Cards, 35 F-cards, 6 E-cards and one card higher than that, most likely a D. The actual cards drawn were: 208 G’s, 37 F-cards and 5 E-cards. So the prediction was pretty accurate.
At this point, I’ll move on to the next 5,000 or so cards and see what I draw and maybe by then I’ll have an A-card I can brag about!