What are the Odds on Sire Cards?

For a long time, I’ve been fighting the urge in trying to determine the odds of pulling an A rated sire card. I’ve only drawn one so far and that was maybe 2 years ago. Trading up to get to the A-card level takes another life time to achieve.

Back in late June, I decided to try to solve that urge and started to track the cards I’ve drawn. Some 5,000 cards later, I still have not drawn another A card, so I’m pretty sure the odds are 5,000-1 or higher.

I’m pretty sure I’ve figured out the chances of drawing the lower cards, mainly because their are such a high volume of them. Of course if the ratio is changed by the programmer, all of this number gathering becomes pointless.

Anyway, here’s what I have found. As of this writing, I have drawn 5,150 cards. Well, when you have nearly 60 stables, you do get a lot of decks of cards. Heck, with 52 cards in a deck, I nearly have had 100 decks flow through my hands.

Back to the analysis. 4,287 of these cards have flipped as G-sire cards. That’s 83% of the cards. Putting this into horse race perspective, you have a 6/5 odds chance of pulling a G-card.

The F-card is the next level and 723 of these cards have come my way, or 14%. This works out to just a smidge over 7/1 odds of walking away with an F-card.

As for the E-sire cards I have picked 122 of these, or about 2% of all cards are of the E variety. The betting line on this approximates 42/1.

I feel that the odds on the above cards is pretty accurate and reflect the over all chances of drawing these cards. The higher cards are a bit harder to determine the accuracy on my analysis as they are much harder to pick. Combined, the chances of drawing a D, C, B or A card are roughly 0.35%. You may get one of these in every 300 cards you earn. We’ll call this the “field”, similar to the longshots in a major race being bet collectively, but with odds of 300/1.

On an individual basis, the D-cards I drew totaled 13, or 0.25% which equates to odds at just below 400/1.

Moving up to the C-cards, I have been lucky enough to only get 3 of these or 0.058% of the time with longshot odds at just over 1,700/1.

Two B-cards were picked during this analysis, with an occurrence percentage of 0.039% and odds of 2,575/1.

No A-cards were drawn during this analysis. The number of C-cards (3) and B-Cards (2) are relatively close to each other so I don’t think the odds I have incurred are accurate. Realistically, I think I should have drawn one or two more C-cards or 1 less B-card.

Based on the history I have incurred, I would guess that the odds of drawing an A-card sit somewhere in the neighborhood of 5,000/1 to 10,000/1.

Again, I’m pretty certain of the accuracy of the odds on the lower cards. I have tested this through formulas by using these odds and predicting what the next 100, 200 or whatever cards I will draw will flip to. The actual numbers have been very close to the prediction. For instance, predicting the recent 250 cards I have drawn, the prediction came out to 208 G-Cards, 35 F-cards, 6 E-cards and one card higher than that, most likely a D. The actual cards drawn were: 208 G’s, 37 F-cards and 5 E-cards. So the prediction was pretty accurate.

At this point, I’ll move on to the next 5,000 or so cards and see what I draw and maybe by then I’ll have an A-card I can brag about!

16 thoughts on “What are the Odds on Sire Cards?

  • February 5, 2020 at 5:34 am
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    This is fascinating. Makes me feel a great deal less blue when I pull all those gray cards. I’ve never drawn an A card.

  • February 5, 2020 at 6:10 am
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    I think a side factor is that better cards come off a win.

    “Game Cards!

    Earning Game Cards is easy! You can earn up to 3 for every race you run a horse in (only the highest placed racer in a master stable grouping is eligible to receive Game Cards in any given race)!

    Enter your horse in a race; after it is complete, you will get a Game Card! Win that race, get another Game Card!

    Finish top 3 in a race that has 8 or more entries or split, get another Game Card!”

    It would be hard to verify this unless you are able to redeem cards race by race. I’ve personally found that the normal card per race is almost always G (more than 83% of the time). Meanwhile if I’ve redeemed after a win I almost always hit F or better cards.

    • February 5, 2020 at 10:56 am
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      Good article, I have never pulled anything better than a c and that was 1 time. No matter how big the race is listed stakes or graded I can’t pull anything higher lol I finally flipped enough to get 4 b cards so I made a horse, and I dont quite understand how some of the shares are b rated. Or how that is determined because I definitely would not classify what I got as b rated.

      • February 5, 2020 at 10:00 pm
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        Approximate Share Ratings

        A Rated – Sires with a rating between 1 – 75

        B Rated – Sires with a rating between 76 – 150

        C Rated – Sires with a rating between 151 – 300

        D Rated – Sires with a rating between 301 – 625

        E Rated – Sires with a rating between 626 – 1250

        F Rated – Sires with a rating between 1251 – 2500

        G Rated – Sires with a rating above 2500

  • February 5, 2020 at 7:06 am
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    A B C D or E card don’t guarantee that type of sure any way. But love the analysis.
    Cheers. BTW I wouldn’t know what a A or B card even look like 😛

  • February 5, 2020 at 12:33 pm
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    Flip a coin 10 times- get 7 heads and 3 tails. Conclusion- heads appear 70% of the time? Determining probabilities by experiment works only if you repeat the trials a LARGE number of times. How about looking at the values Mike gives for redeeming a set of 5 cards. It takes 5 cards to exchange to the next level.
    5 B’s gets an A so the relative values are
    A=1
    B=5
    C=125
    D=625
    E= 3125
    F= 15625
    G= 78125 or it takes 78125 G cards to to get up to an A
    Total 97631
    If the distribution ie truly random and follows the above valuations
    Prob(G)= 78125/97631= 80%
    Prob(F) =15625/97631= 16%
    Prob(E)= 3125/97631=3.2%
    and so on
    getting an A is a rare bird indeed

    • February 5, 2020 at 5:53 pm
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      slight miscalculation skipped 25… so only 15000 for an A

  • February 5, 2020 at 4:21 pm
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    Nice article.

    I have not done the numbers myself, but yours seem pretty accurae with my experience.

    I have came acrossed 1 B card in my 2 years playing the game.

    Thanks for the read, Jb3

  • February 5, 2020 at 5:13 pm
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    I have drawn only 3 A cards have exchanged for 12 but the sires you pull from B’s and A cards can be very disappointing so I exchange for C sires now and have been happy with 90% of what ive drawn

  • February 5, 2020 at 10:52 pm
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    Because I am very sad and I want to see what happens. I am saving all my cards to get the perfect scratch horse using only A cards. So far I have acquired 1. And I have reckoned that you would need to have 125000 runners (although I could be a bit out) with only G cards to get that unicorn. Although less if you can get better result. I have managed to get 2 B cards towards my quest.

  • February 6, 2020 at 12:01 am
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    Rockriver-
    The numbers you point out are the exchange ratios for trading upward to that A-card. We don’t know if that same exchange ratio is the same that Mike coded into the game when you pick a card. They could be the same and they could be different. Years back when he rolled this out, I assumed you have 1 in 15,000 chances of drawing an A-card based on the same calculations you reflect. We’ll never know for sure unless Mike opts to share it with us, but I have a feeling that if it is a different method, it’s probably close to the one used to trade cards in.

  • February 6, 2020 at 4:52 pm
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    I THINK that you get better cards for better races, especially winning them. However, it may be that A cards always need to be graded up to. I have done quite well by upgrading mine from the lowest level, but am not going to use them until i have more top rated cards.

  • February 6, 2020 at 10:06 pm
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    40 stables (all full)
    3 years
    I have pulled 1 “A” card (the only one I have ever seen)
    A x B x C x C = OASIS DREAM (GB) x CHARM SPIRIT x VICTOR’S CRY (OASIS DREAM WIND) (Unraced)

  • February 13, 2020 at 2:46 am
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    Good Going Rock!

    As for pulling better cards in better races, I feel the cards are all random regardless of the race. I had some junky horses yesterday running in hot races and pulled a D-card from one of the races.

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