Supermajic, Prussian, Nightlinger, more knock heads in DelPenn Christmas Classic(G2)
Delaware– The tenth edition of DelPenn Champions Day? Holy smokes! Seems like yesterday that the good folks over at the DelPenn website (and especially Afc and the Super crew) began this annual end-of-year tradition for the Sim. DPCD is like the game’s 2nd Breeders Bowl — a 2nd championship day to cement Sim Eclipse Awards (or steal ’em in the last jump before the wire!). Ha!
A full field of 14 older horses and one filly gear up for the Grade 2 $1,500,000 DelPenn Christmas Classic. Notice the “Grade 2” designation here — unfortunately, we didn’t get any Breeders Bowl Classic performers for Saturday’s starting gate. However, we did get an exciting mix of nine furlong specialists as well as some interesting autumn-is-so-bright late-bloomers to tackle the 10 furlong classic distance. It’s a fascinating group to figure out and puzzle over. I’m pretty sure we’ll see at least a 110+ SP# if not 115+! Monstrous, yeah. 🙂
Let’s find a winner with St. Billgulch on his way……………..
The Faves
Prussian(AUS) – kjracing – 5/1
Prussian for the most part specializes around nine panels, so this is gonna be a bit of a test for the 4yo son of Hussonet. Third last out to Supermajic in the Japan Dirt Cup(G2) three weeks ago, Prussian had previously pocketed the Apple Pie(G3) in fine time. Both efforts were at 9f though and, like Supermajic, Prussian has to prove that he can handle the extra furlong here. On one hand, he’s superbly solid in these grades, yet, on the other hand, you got distance worries (he did try an off-track 10.5f effort this year, but spit out the bit — not exactly confidence-boosting, considering he has a pretty good off track record). Boy, I’m just looking for ways to toss this guy out, huh? Reaching for straws, eh, Snowchief? Ha! He’ll win by 10 lengths. LOL. 😉
Nightlinger(KY) – early – 5/1
If the oddsmakers factored recent graded company performances into the morning line, then Nightlinger would go off as a considerable longshot. The 4yo son of Curlin did win the Farewell to Cryptozot(G1) earlier this season but also flopped badly in three graded attempts. I’d cut him a little slack though, because he stretched out to 12f+ in two of those starts. Since returning to the 10f ranks, he bounced back to win the Univeral Racing Club’s Breeders Cup Classic with an ethereal 117SP#. The midpacker made a bold move before the far turn and romped home well under wraps to win by daylight. He since ran an equally huge number, only to fall short at the listed level. Certainly has the class and firepower. Needs race position and cool running down the lane. Dangerous.
Supermajic(KY) – b2 – 6/1
Ranked # 3 in the division, Supermajic gamely recovered from a poor Breeders Bowl outing to take the Japan Dirt Cup(G2) earlier this month. The Awesome Again son completely destroyed that 9f field by 2 1/2 lengths. This guy’s the real deal and he’s still yet to hit his peak hopefully with just his 17th career call to the post this Saturday. The big question with him is can he extend that command to 10 panels? Great spot to find that out. I’m a little concerned though that his numbers dip a tad after throwing such monstrous numbers (his poor BB effort came after a tremendous 117 SP# graded victory). It’s also late in the year and that’s part of the challenge of DelPenn day — can only go one so many times to the well. But trainer B2 has managed to space this colt’s races out perfectly. A tough assignment but he’s the one to beat with all that black type to his resume.
Precizionist(KY) – leesnyder – 6/1
The real-life Precisionist was as game as they come back in the 1980s and the Sim’s version is equally so. Precizionist has only missed the board once this season and near always manages a check at the graded and listed levels. He finished 3rd to Dragon Dustdevil in the Day Of Dominion(G3). I’d like to point out his progressive upswing in speed figures of late. The 5yo Distorted Humor horse scored 112 and 115 SP#s respectively when placed back at the 10f distance. Look how that mirrors 104 and 108 numbers when asked to go back-to-back at 10f earlier in the year. I think that’s how you build these graded horses into consistency. A lot to prove, but interesting. Needs to show up in his Saturday best.
In The Wings
Dragon Dustdevil(KY) – racedragon – 8/1
Day Of Dominion(G3) winner Dragon Dustdevil almost always earns a check. The Smarty Jones 4yo consistently throws 100+ near each time out. And I agree that 10f appears to be his best distance too — lots of stamina in that Dubai Destination x Summer Squall female family. Odds indicate that he’s at this level with the faves if not a length or two behind them. You don’t really see a huge speed figure to turn your head in his PPs. But there’s plenty of points for showing up on Saturdays. Could this be high time for the Dustdevil’s breakout score? Definite factor for the board. Needs pace up front.
Sheltered(KY) – saver – 10/1
Great form and confidence for Sheltered who enters here after bagging a pair of short-field listed stakes. The 4yo son of AP Indy specializes at this classic distance and he knocked heads with the top guns over the late summer, managing a strong 4th-place in the CA Classic(G1) before flopping badly in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup(G1). He also brings a board-placing in this year’s Sand Castle Classic(G1) which was held back in March. So, the question with this stalker is if he’s back at the top of his game? You gotta say so and I like his chances to pull off a mild upset. Needs some luck and clear sailing to get the job finally done.
Few Are Chosen(KY) – fewifany – 11/1
Rahy frontrunner came out on top of a tooth-and-nail listed battle LTO. He doesn’t have a ton of graded experience, but you gotta love solid consistent speed figures and this boy has ’em. I can see Few Are Chosen up front early with the filly SS Vett and the 3yo Dontpreachtome. Odds indicate that Few Are Chosen will win that battle, but does he have a 110 SP#+ to finish out under the wire? Needs to bring his very best and deliver it handsomely.
Silver Star Road(KY) – onyourmark – 12/1
The fans shall line up railside to catch a glimpse of Silver Star Road, the earner of over $4.6 million lifetime. The 6yo son of Silver Train has long outran his modest pedigree. The old man has been in the midst of a dry spell of late, but did manage to capture cheques in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup(G1) and Baggio(G1), both at his preferred 10f speciality. Could the cutback from the 12f listed stakes debacle see his speed figures jump? Possible. But, still, he’s long in the tooth at 50 career calls to the post. One last hurrah for the star of the silver (and golden!) road?
Chinook Down(IRE) – liam – 12/1
Hey, Liam, one of the “Sim Ancients” players! Ha! Liam’s a savvy player who knows when and where to roll the dice and he rolls ’em with this son of Rock Of Gibraltar. Chinook Down finished a splendid 2nd in the GR Simsters Championships around 10f LTO. He spent much of 2011 at a furlong or so less and certainly appreciated the extra yardage despite falling shot just a half-length. Lots of ability and lots to like in this downtown closer. Could he finally be putting it all together after 18 starts? A live sleeper who will close late with Mira Boonta, Dragon Dustdevil, et al. Play on a hunch.
The Longshots
SS Vett(KY) – pornstar – 13/1
We got our lone filly here in this gorgeous 4yo daughter of Empire Maker. She’s pretty much a 10f specialist and kept some classy graded company over the distance throughout this season. You can’t help but notice how SS Vett sure took hold of the bit and galloped off with the listed score LTO after running up the track over shorter courses. This gal can run all day and you gotta love a horse jumping in here off of a wondrous speed number (114). Additionally, there’s not a ton of pace in this group and we’ll likely see her duke it out with Few Are Chosen and Dontpreachtome for the early lead. And if those two don’t go with her, then watch out! I can imagine her taking this one wire to wire. Interesting potential spoiler.
Mira Boonta(KY) – vertigo – 14/1
Last year’s Xmas Classic hero prepares to defend his title from the clouds and beyond. Mira Boonta made up over 17 lengths at one point to win the 2010 renewal by a whisker. The 4yo son of Distorted Humor has only won one from 7 starts this season however. The win came in the Out of the City(G2) back in the springtime. This guy’s got a reputation as being one tough li’l bugger who grinds away yardage down the strech. I wonder how he’d do in a 16f marathon? I like how his numbers steadily inched upwards throughout the season. He’s on the upswing, but will he get pace up front Saturday? Needs to bring his A-game and take ’em all to the bank.
Dontpreachtome(KY) – nightracin – 19/1
Don’t let the odds fool you! This sophomore son of Pulpit reeks of talent — but, the trouble is that trainer Nightracin still has to pinpoint Dontpreachtome’s best distance. The speedster won two back with a superb number around 8.5 panels. But if you look back at his PPs, you’ll see that he’s been all over the board when asked to go 9.5f+. I like this ambitious race placement though — it’s a tough field, but within reach if this colt can put it all together. However, he faded somewhat down the lane LTO in the Queen of County(G3). Boy, the Kingmambo x Secretariat female family sure screams stamina. Litmus test that can go either way, but one to keep an eye on early up front.
Attitude Adjust(KY) – tamure – 22/1
Point Given 4yo hasn’t had much luck in graded company, and, inded, I just don’t particularly care for him in this spot. Sure, he won over 10.5f in fine time a few starts ago, but that was at the listed level. He’s just kind of all over the board. I think you need some kind of consistency before pulling the trigger in these grades. A cut below this group and can’t see him be of much effect against this group.
Poker Table(KY) – chloedawg4 – 40/1
I’m not a big fan of this entry and the oddsmakers agree. Royally bred sophomore colt was a contender on the Derby trail earlier this season. He won the Heat Less(G2) back in late spring, but has been winless outside of an ALW score since. This will be his first attempt at 10f and I just don’t see a massive turnaround happening in this spot. Personally, I’d try a sprint and more flat mile races. Big reach and I’m gonna toss him out.
Snowchief’s Picks:
I think it’s a toss up between the nine-furlong faves (Prussian & Supermajic) and proven 10f commodities (Nighlinger, Precizionist, Dragon Dustdevil, Silver Star Road, and most of all Sheltered).
The filly SS Vett needs to outduel Few Are Chosen and Dontpreachtome and while it’s possible that one of those three garners the lead all to their lonesome, I can’t really see any of them around late. Dontpreachtome though along with Mira Boonta and liam’s Chinook Down could light up the board as potential spoilers.
Both Silver Star Road and Sheltered merit respect considering their elite backclass. Of the two, Sheltered has youth on his side and I’m gonna call him the best bet in this group at 10/1. Supermajic and Nightlinger bounce. Prussian fades. Chinook Down flies late. Workman Precizionist rallies for the show.
Win: Sheltered
Place: Chinook Down
Show: Precizionist
Good luck to all, Happy Holidays, and Merry Christmas, Simmers!