The 2011 Breeder’s Bowl Dirt Mile
The 2011 Breeder’s Bowl Dirt Mile
Cast of Elite and Obscure Compete for Glory
By afc
The Mile. It’s almost an afterthought. You don’t go to the breeding clickfest, or dump valuable hard earned BP’s thinking to yourself, “hmm, think I’ll try and breed me an elite miler.” Nobody wants to get hand spasms from the three second cycle click madness festival each Sunday to get a miler. You want the Classic dirt horse. You want the long turfer to try and claim your piece of Sim glory. Sometimes, you even say, “I’d like to get a really sharp sprinter.” Miler? Nope. You don’t breed a miler. You get a miler by default. You try him in sprints, and then you hope he stretches out. When he can’t, you back down to mile races. You get there because there’s nowhere else to go. Anybody tells you otherwise, grab his Pinocchio sized snout, whip him around a few times and then sling him into the trash heap while simultaneously screaming, “LIAR!”
It’s the nature of the game. You unwrap your Eclipse ballot at year’s end, and you see a horse who’s won two Grade 1 races at 10 furlongs.Then, you see another with an equally shiny resume, only to notice that his wins have come at a mile. Who do you choose? The sharp looker who can get a mile and a quarter, or the pizza faced loser who wins races in a division nobody really gives a damn about? Man up. You know the truth. You just can’t handle the truth.
Seriously. How many big races are there at 10 panels? Well ,let’s see….off the top of my head, I can come up with Bluegrass Derby, Movieland Shiny Cup, JCGC, Travers, Pacific Classic, Santa Anita Handicap, Breeder’s Bowl Classic, the Alabama, Sand Castle Classic, CA Classic….there’s a bunch. Milers? Two. Cosmopolitan Handicap and Sterile Mile. Three, if you want to include the Delaware Mile, a “bought” race, even though it’s been a Sim staple for 10 years now. Harumph. It’s a huge disparity. Glaring, in fact. And it all goes back to one simple fact- you don’t want a miler. You want a Classic horse. If you don’t get it, you back him up to a mile and hope for the best. Admit it. You know it’s true. Can you handle it? Can you deal with the reality that you’ve got a superb horse which you never really wanted in the first place?
Now, now….tsk, tsk…don’t get your panties up in a wad just yet. We’ll give ‘em their just due. Duke Ali. Western Groom. Enough Knock.Volotile Nijinsky. Storm Dog. Used Bandaid. School Kris. Ray of Pye. StarkeStorm. So, yeah, those names are out there, and most are enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Oops! Not so fast, Sherlock. Missing one big point. The last seven were GRASS horses. Lots more prestige on the lawn for milers. Dirt? Just the first two. Who really wanted them? Did I really want Eruption the Miler? Hell, no. I wanted Eruption the Derby winner. I defaulted to Eruption the Miler becausehe couldn’t do anything else as well. See what I mean? One of the two best horses I’ve ever had in 11 years of Simmering, and he was a leper. A castoff from the Island of Misfit Toys.
All that denigration being said, there’s something special about a miler. It’s about working the horse. It’s about patience. It’s about absorbing mind numbing defeats. It’s about persistence. You have your goals, and you find yourself with a horse who can’t quite get you what you want. But, like Mick and the boys once said, “you can’t always get what you want….but you get what you need.” You tear your hair out, thinking, “what can I do with this horse?” You know he’s got talent, you just have to wait, persevere and press on, give him the chance to show the potential to you. And what do you get? A miler. A very, very special horse, the one you’ve invested more time and thought into, just because you were convinced he was too good to dump into claimers, too good to give up on, too good to shelve and let him rot away with the rest of the garbage we all have (yes, even Dixie and texasace occasionally get garbage- we don’t see it, because we’re too busy noticing how they’re constantly trouncing any horse we dare to toss into a big race against them).
So, the dirt miler winds up, after all this inconspicuous ambiguity, after all this discombobulation, being a truly special horse. One you learn to cherish. The one you hope will be that one, that singular special piece to crash through the magical 1:33 barrier (which only two have ever done- think about it, of all the mile races, only twice under 1:33 in Sim history), shattering the Sim’s version of the sound barrier. Your castoff, the one who wouldn’t fit where you really wanted him to, becomes the one you watch first on every Saturday he runs, the one who makes your heart race as he pushes beyond the boundary of the sprint races, lungs burning, legs churning, as he thrusts himself forward, matriculating (thanks, Hank Stramm) himself towards that mystical goal, 1:33 or bust.Can’t you almost hear the BOOM, almost feel it?
There, my friends, is the essence of the mile. Your horse, racing against the others, but always racing against the clock as well. Winning is great. Winning in under 1:33 is unsurpassed. Cinderella as an apparition that appears fleetingly, out of the gloam, racing headlong into a glorious rendezvous with past Sim legends. Despite all the crushed dreams the Miler endures, in the end, when you’ve got one who is really special…..well, they become the horses you treasure the most. They’re the dream realized, the ones you’ve worked hardest on, the ones you’ve lost the most hair over, the ones you’ve perseverated about like no other. When you finally get a big one, the reward is, quite simply, as sweet as the tastiest strawberry you’ll ever pull off the vine; as tempting as the finest grapes, first crushed, and then painstakingly aged into superb wine….it’s a fantastic treat, as good as it gets in Sim Land.
So, here we sit, with a group of 14 dirt milers, crouched on the precipice of Sim history. Muscles tense, nostrils flaring, a 1200 poundball of fire and fury, waiting, waiting, waiting furtively for the gates to spring open. Desperately hurtling themselves forth, wantonly tossing aside fear and pain to burn their names into the minds of their trainers and their opponents, pushing themselves beyond the limit of sprints, into the searing ,often dangerous netherworld where pure speed collides violently with stamina.There’s a reason many of the top sires are milers. They pass on burning speed plus a stamina influence that can give rise to any type of horse. They are, despite their warts and blemishes, the best of both worlds. An acquired taste? Perhaps. But, ahh, what a sweet taste it is.
Without further adieu, the field for the 2011 Breeder’s Bowl Dirt Mile. Fasten your seatbelts, and get ready for a wild, wild ride.
PP1 EGON SCHIELE (Peintre Celebre-Kingmambo-Storm Bird) ML11-1 And you thought all that above blather was all made up…well, here’s the horse who proves it all true. Nice four year old colt had success at a mile, winning the G3 Chester West Handicap with a sharp 111 figure. So, what does he do next? HE STRETCHES OUT! Nice win in the 9f G2 Cornhusker has Fernando doing backflips about maybe, just maybe making the Classic this year. Of course, as with all milers, that thought was crushed with a resounding thump when Egon Schiele failed miserably at one of the aforementioned BIG 10 furlong races (which we all want to win), the G1 CAClassic. Walloped nearly 20 lengths in the ill-fated attempt at glory, he turned back a bit (but not quite enough) in the 9f G1 Goody Good and promptly was handed his head again. This guy is a closer- he’ll come from off the pace, but not from out of the clouds, so it’s imperative he doesn’t get too far back early. Best efforts when he’s 8-10 lengths back at the second call. At one point this year, he had a solid turn of foot, but that’s disappeared in his last two. He’ll need to find that again here, but he’s suffered the Miler’sCurse- “maybe I CAN coax that extra furlong out of him.” Then again, maybe not. Turning back to eight panels may be the tonic for him, but I doubt the tonic is strong enough. Badly off form right now, I cannot recommend him.
PP2 THE BEGGAR KING (Tiznow-Danzig-Mr. Prospector) ML7-1 Here’s the reigning Dirt Mile champion, back to defend his title. Yet another whom, before becoming an elite miler, had to suffer a public flogging in a big race, this time the Bluegrass Derby, where he simply imploded and stopped. Given picked up the pieces and went to DEFCON Default Level 1 and switched him back to mile races, with a sprinkling of long sprints and 8.5f trips with outstanding results. Scorched the surface last year with a 116 winning this race, completely dispelling any notion that he hated the surface. Nearly completed the big double to end the year, but was denied in the G1 Delaware Mile while putting up a sharp 111. You look back at his pp’s, and it makes you wonder- was this the target all year long, or was it the Sprint? Look further back, and you’ll see it’s a similar pattern to last year. He won the G2 Sand Castle Goldolphin Mile early this year, then fell off a bit with mediocre (for him) efforts. So, he gets dropped into sprints. Last year, four sprints….this year, three sprints…then the Mile. Given is a creature of habit. If it worked last year, may as well do the same thing again this season. Problem is, this mid-pack runner has started to sprinkle in some not so good runs with nice efforts. Last year, he came in sharp as a razor with two very solid seven panel efforts. This year? Two seven furlong runs, with…..ehhh. Not so good results. First sign of wear and tear is a loss of consistency. The last time The Beggar King really exploded late was back in March in Dubai. Since then? More one paced than anything else. Tough to count him out, we know he likes the surface, and he oozes backclass. However….there are others that look more promising at longer odds. Play at your own risk, but know you’ll be kicking yourself if you leave him off your ticket sand he jumps up and bites you.
PP3 K’S MACHURUCUTO (Pivotal-Lyphard-Round Table) ML 9-1 Where do you guys come up with these names? This is the second of the three I have to keep running a spell check on. Still kicking at six years of age, this guy was one of the first Pivotals to come to prominence. Earlier in the year, he was in the best form of his career, winning the G3 Khartoum I Challenge and the listed Matt Cam Stakes with scorching efforts, driving home in sub 1:34 both times. Since then, though, age has begun to catch up with him. Had another big win in the G2 Mansur LeRoys Handicap with a 113, followed by a near miss in the G1 Cosmopolitan, but hasn’t cracked 110 in his last three. His last two have been facile alw wins with mediocre times. Looks to be on the downside of a very nice career. Figures to be part of the early mix, he likes to stay close. If nobody else wants to go, he has the early hoof to take command. Love the versatility, but I’m not so sure he’s got enough left to run with the others when the serious racing starts. Probably a bit of an underlay at 9-1. Capable, but not without some big question marks.
PP4 BOISDERBYBOUND (Tiznow-Danzig-Alydar) ML 12-1 The name says it all…..he’s not Boismilebound, he’s BoisDERBYbound. Three year old Tiznow colt has come on strongly over the summer and into the fall with his figs jumping quickly into the stratosphere, capped with a huge 117 when winning the 9f G3 Northern Derby. Hasn’t run at a mile since early spring, and he came up short in that effort. Since then, he’s been doing fairly well at 9f and up until finally going supernova in the Northern Derby. Another who likes to sit close to the pace, and has the jets to go to the front if he wants. Problem is, I don’t think boble20 really wanted to go in this race. I think he wanted to be Boisclassicbound, but didn’t quite have the points to get there. Classic distance horses, unless they’re really superstars, have a hard time dropping back to the middle distance races. They don’t usually have the early foot to keep up with the pace, and find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Still, he’s very lightly raced, and has plenty of upside. Regardless of what happens Saturday, he’ll make some serious noise in the handicap division next season. Don’t really like him in this spot, would have liked him a bit more in the Classic. Had it come up off, I’d have jumped all over him. Best two races of his career, by far, were off track efforts. In with a shot ,but with a fast track and the giant last time out effort, I think he’ll regress here.
PP5 ELITE STATUS (Malibu Moon-Storm Cat-Seeking theGold) ML 17-1 Big price on a sharp, rapidly developing three year old from a killer barn. Won the G2 Trial By Night Stakes earlier in the year, and was progressing nicely until his last, where he failed to fire in the G2 Bettis Handicap. Capable of closing from far back, but runs his best races if he’s within eight lengths or so of the lead. Expect him to come back with an improved effort off his last, and he could very well challenge his lifetime top of 111, which puts him in the mix here. Lasthope seems to think the last race was a toss, and points out that after only 13 career starts, he has room to improve. I tend to agree. Believe in Dixie has been a winning mantra for many a punter for a long, long time in the Sim. There’s a reason he’s one of the best trainers. The price is right, too. In with a shot, as well as a chance to make your wallet go Costanza if he hits the board.
PP6 SUPERMAJIC (Awesome Again-Secretariat-Danzig) ML 8-1 Very lightly raced four year old has compiled an impressive record of 10 wins from only 14 starts thus far. Would likely be the favorite if the cpu oddsmaker didn’t short circuit off an injury caused 55 three back. He’s comeback gangbusters after that, winning two straight with figs of 110/117. He’ll sit midpack and look to pounce around the far turn. Trainer b2 has somehow resisted the urge to try a mile and a quarter, even after some sensationa lefforts at 9 panels. Already a two time G2 winner, he’s looking to be ver ytough in this spot. Big question is, can he get there in a race shorter than he’s been in lately? If he makes the lead, he’s going to be very, very tough to run down. Lots to like here, excellent value as well.
PP7 DIAMOND PIT (Tale of Ekati-Pulpit-Darshaan) ML 19-1 Longest shot on the board is this three year old who’s been running well at 9 furlongs. Already has scored in the G2 Buckeye Derby and the G3 Barbara Walters Special, the latter at a flat mile. Figs have been steadily and slowly showing an improving trend, but he’ll have to better his lifetime best of 108 to have a shot here. He’ll be very close to the pace, pushing the early leaders, if not right there with them. Does his best running on the pace. If he gets left early, his chances go down significantly. 19-1 is probably fair; could spice up exotics underneath. Tough to pick to win, though. Big upside, as this is only his 11th start. That said, I still think this is a bit too tough of a spot at this point in time.
PP8 JERSEY ACT (Northern Afleet-Langfuhr-Mr. Greeley) ML 10-1 Probably the best of the three year olds in here. He’s proven capable at up to 9 furlongs, but it seems that the mile is his best distance. This guy is a dead closer, and when he flips the switch, he’ll come after the others like a scalded dog. He’s been well prepped, sneaky well prepped. You will find a definitive pattern to his races. Runs well, followed by a drop down in distance, where he blows up. Second in a listed 9f stakes this spring, drops down to a mile next out, and fires a new top winning the G3 Tin Man. Trounced in the 9.5 furlong Middle Jewel (there’s the old “I want a Classic horse!”thing), drops back to 8.5 in the G2 Flat Land Derby and….runs a new top to win. Soundly beaten in the 9f Haskell, he then once again (see if you can figure this out by now) drops back to a flat mile, and barely misses in the G2 Middle Ground Mile by a rapidly diminishing ½ length, running a (you guessed it) new top of 117. That’s three new tops the last three times he’s backed up in distance, twice happening when he drops down to a mile. So, his last prep? A solid second in the G2 South Bend Derby at 8.5f. Now, he drops back to a flat mile. Do I have to spell the pattern out for you now? Awful lot to like here, he should at worst hit the board, and he’s got as good as shot as anyone in here to take the whole enchilada home. 10-1 is a gift on this guy. Load up!
PP 9 OVERDOZE (Unbridled’s Song-Mr. Prospector-Seattle Slew)ML 12-1 Another three year old beginning to find his best stride. Became one of the Derby favorites this spring when winning one of the most impressive preps of the spring with a facile triumph in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Flopped in the Bluegrass Derby and the Middle Jewel, failing to carry his speed like he did in Arkansas. So what does he do? Drop back to middle distance races. While he’s slowly been improving, he’s only won once- in allowance company- since the Arkansas Derby win. Lifetime top of 109 likely won’t make it here. You would have hoped to have seen him showing further improvement over that 109, but it has yet to happen. Faded badly in the G2 Bettis Handicap LTO, running his usual solid race, but finishing an unspectacular sixth. He’s likely to be the early pacesetter Saturday. However, there’s too much speed in here to let him shake loose early, and he just hasn’t shown the improvement to hold on late that he’ll need to win in this caliber ofcompany. Nice horse, but I’ll pass.
PP10 DISSECTED (Street Cry-Storm Cat-Unbridled) ML 11-1 Another three year old, but one who’s shown improvement lately which makes him a threat. Not just improvement, but he’s slowly improved throughout the summer and fall, capping it off with a 111 LTO to win the G2 South Bend Derby, holding off Jersey Act in the process. He’s already a G1 winner at the mile distance, and has since racked up two G2 scores, both at 8.5 furlongs. Hasn’t been worse than second since the Derby debacle (yep, this is starting to sound like a broken record). Consistent, versatile sort can be on the lead or sit just off, and he’s finished well in almost every race at 8.5f or shorter. Was prepped with purpose for this race since early summer, and the prepper has said that this horse is a “nut lock cinch” to win this race. I will admit, I am his co-trainer, and I will also say that I’m not the one who guaranteed the win. LOL. I won’t disclose who the other guy is, but let’s just say, he casts a big, big shadow over the Breeder’s Bowl….I want to agree with him, but until Dissected fires that huge number like Jersey Act did, I’m not totally convinced he’s up to the task of defeating his elders just yet. Will be in the mix, probably the biggest three year old threat in the field to Jersey Act, but I remain skeptical. Then again, he should be best at a mile, and he’s another taking the drop down in distance angle. Lots to like, but with lots of unanswered questions.
PP11 CAPTAIN CHARISMA (Danehill Dancer-Capote-Mr.Prospector) ML 10-1 I have no idea how a horse this accomplished is dismissed at double digit odds. Looks like the cpu oddsmaker vomited on itself after the injury plagued effort in the Middle Ground Mile, where he fired a puny 14 figure. Prior to that? 7-4-3-0. And lookat these numbers: 117/113/111/117/110113/114. How is this horse NOT the favorite in here? Among his triumphs this year are the G3 Fus Gonner Handicap ,the G2 Star Athlete Handicap and the G2 San Dimas. He’s already proven he can go in sub 1:34, which is rarified air. A confirmed dead closer, the only real question mark is how well he bounces back from the Middle Ground Mile disaster six weeks ago. Is he sharp? Will he need a prep? Don’t know, and we’ll never know, as there wasn’t enough time to recover after a very untimely misstep. Arguably the premier dirt miler in the sim this year, he’ll look to add to an impressive collection of victories Saturday, and will prop himself into Eclipse Award contention if he pulls it off. One of the more exciting aspects of this race will be watching the Captain and Jersey Act match strides late. They’ll be eyeballing each other the entire race. Maybe the track announcer can pull a Dave Johnson (no, not dropping trou), screaming “and here comes the Captain!” for the stretch run. Certainly wouldn’t be a big surprise to see him win, but you never know how well or how quickly they come back from injury. Hard to pick against him, but if he doesn’t get up, you’ll be slapping your forehead and wondering how you bet the house on a horse who ran a 14 LTO. The biggest talent- and biggest enigma- in the field.
PP12 MOTION DISMISSED (Lawyer Ron-Storm Cat-Bering) ML 6-1 Here’s the lukewarm ML favorite, and Dixie’s second entrant in the Dirt Mile. Has a resume to be envied by all- he’s a three time G1 winner at the mile distance, capturing The Café Beignet at age 4, the Delaware Mile at age 4 and the Cosmopolitan Handicap this year. He was also a hard closing second to The Beggar King in last year’s renewal of this race. He’s one of those unlikely milers, who looks like he was actually made to run in nothing but mile races. Out of his 35 career starts, all but four have been at a flat mile. That’s remarkable, and perhaps gives insight into why Dixie is one of the best trainers ever. He doesn’t succumb to urges, he doesn’t get afflicted with things like Derby fever, he doesn’t experiment when he finds something his horses do well. He just places them where they have shown brilliance, and beats the rest of us over the skull with legions of well prepared runners. His last 30 starts have been at a flat mile. Amazing. At his best, he gave everyone around him fits, but at five, he’s starting to slow down just a bit. Dix says he’s had some physical issues this year, and you can bet he won’t be on the early lead or anywhere near it after Dixie nearly killed jockey Cassel for having him way, way too close to the pace in this year’s Sand Castle Goldolphin Mile. He likes to do his running from way back in the field. Just two back, he went sub 1:34 with a 115, winning the listed Cape Brit Dirt Mile .He faltered a bit in the Middle Ground Mile, and prepped nicely in an alw LTO. Does he have one more big run in him? The backclass is certainly there. I fanyone can get the creaky legs rolling one more time, it’s Dixie. Yet another who will be coming like a house afire with Jersey Act and Captain Charisma late. If he can go with those two, we’re in for a dynamite finish. Lots to like, some questions to ask as well.
PP13 O’RAGHALLAIGH II (Ghostzapper-Stop the Music-GallantMan) ML 9-1 First things first- a HUGE shout out to itch for finally getting his first Breeder’s Bowl runner! Nicely done, my man. Now, if this horse sports the “II” after his name, does this really mean there was a “I”? Seriously? I have a hard time spelling it, much less pronouncing it. At any rate, the name is Gaelic for “O’Reilly”. Itch runs a small operation, so it’s understandable that he’s been late in getting to his first BB, but he’s coming in with a loaded gun here. This four year old has only 12 career starts, so you have to wonder if there’s more room for improvement. That’s a scary, scary thought, considering he won a G3 race, The Day of Memorial Handicap in only his 9th start- with a whopping 116 figure. O’Reilly II (I’m not even going to attempt the Gaelic version again) backed up that victory in sensational fashion, winning the G2 Salvatore Mile in his very next start with a remarkable 117, stopping the teletimer in a stunning 1:33 2/5. Encore, you say? OK. Next start, G1 Hit Me Handicap, he pulls yet another wire job with a 113. By his 11th start, he’s a three time graded winner and a G1 winner. Any way you slice it, that’s an incredible achievement .Bounced a bit in his last, fading to 5th in the G2 Brookline Handicap, which can be excused off three consecutive monster efforts. Now, he cuts back a furlong to his best distance, and he figures to be very, very tough. His game is simple- he rockets out of the gate and dares anyone to catch him. Those who have tried to run with him have paid the price, fading into oblivion quickly. Those who chose to wait and try to pounce found he wasn’t coming back to them. He puts his opponents into a very difficult spot- try and push him, you die. Let him roll, you’ve left yourself with too much to do. Itch says he has no plans to change anything here. He’s going to give jockey Osbourne strict instructions to let him rock and roll right out of the gate and play catch me if you can. No reason to change after the success he’s had. Interestingly, itch admits to having Classic fever, but he decided to effectively default to the Dirt Mile after the horse stopped LTO at 9 panels. Welcome to the show, itch. You may just burn the whole house down.
PP14 LEFT OF REASON (Curlin-Green Desert-Riverman) ML 10-1 Fat odds on yet another who was injured in the G2 Middle Ground Mile LTO. So, again, the question becomes, can he recover to the G1 level rightaway? He finished third in this race last year, and is a multiple graded stakes winner from the Lenny conglomerate, so he commands instant respect. Like many others, he had Classic aspirations, as he was one of the top contenders for the’10 Bluegrass Derby, but was turned back to middle distances after flops in the Derby and Middle Jewel. The cutback in distance worked, as he has proven to be a superb miler, breaking the 1:34 mark on four occasions. Was in the best form of his career until the recent injury, as coming into the Middle Ground Mile, he had won three in a row with figs of 112/107/116. He’s won five of his past seven as well. Likes to stalk, and will try to keep itch’s boy in his gunsights early, then try and hold off the deep closers late. Left of Reason doesn’t mind getting into a tussle, either. His last three wins have been by a sum total of about a ½ length. Eyeball this guy in the lane, you ask for a ton of trouble, and you’re going to get a gut check for the ages. In with a big shot, but there’s the rebound question to answer, just as it is with Captain Charisma. Few years back, Lenny won an incredible five BB races…..he brings his charges here with a purpose, and he casts a big, big shadow over the BB. Read into that what you may.
SUMMARY This is shaping up to be a great race. O’Raghallaigh II’s connections have confirmed he’s going to try to steal it up front. Somebody has to go with him, or the race is over. Look for Overdoze, Diamond Pit, Boisderbybound and K’s Machurucuto to keep him company early. Several others, including Left of Reason and Dissected figure to sit along with The Beggar King, Elite Status and Supermajic in midpack, while the deep closer sCaptain Charisma, Motion Dismissed and Jersey Act take up residence at the backof the pack. The expected hot pace will likely set up a frantic finish, and there would be no surprise to see several noses within two lengths of the wire at the end.
WIN Jersey Act
Place Captain Charisma
Show O’Raghallaigh II
Best of luck to all.