Five Millionaires Set to Chase Grade I at Deauville
Six handicap division males and one mare go the post in Sunday’s Saint Cloud Grand Prix (Grade I) at Deauville. Par for this event is SP 111; the distance is one and one half miles on the grass.
#1 Bogoesaway 5/2 is a four year-old son of Encosta de Lago who lit up the toteboard in a win in the G2 Great Volt last August at this distance. That was against three year-olds though, and this colt has never beaten older horses, which is a bit of a concern. Still, you’re looking at a colt who relishes the 12 furlong distance; in four starts at this trip, he’s won a Grade II event and a listed stakes race, finished third in the G1 Japanese Derby in May 2010, and finished an outstanding second in the G1 5-Series in Australia. His last outing, a runner-up finish in G2 company at 1 3/8 miles, was impressive. Up and coming colt is a contender.
Five year-old #2 Signs of Change 5/2 is beginning a second career on the lawn. This Dynaformer x Storm Cat x Alydar cross was very successful on dirt, racking up $1.1M in earnings from 22 starts (8 wins), including three graded stakes wins (two G1) at stayer distances of 1 ¾ miles and up. Was bet down to 8-1 in last year’s Breeders Bowl Dirt Marathon (G1), but flopped there, and disappointed in two subsequent dirt starts, which led to the change to turf. So far, so good… after two allowance tries (a win and a place), he wowed the local Italian press with a five-length score in the 12f G2 Carlsbad Lessons, with an SP of 111. Versatile horse has every right to keep going forward off that one.
#3 Left All Alone 6/1, a six year-old mare by Tiger Hill, has 10 career victories from 36 starts for just $216k in earnings. That doesn’t seem robust enough to challenge here. She’s never even won an open allowance on turf, let alone a stakes race, and recent form indicates an SP top in the low 100s. Pass.
#4 Burnt Lawn 12/1 is interesting. This is a big price on a colt who has won nearly $1.5M from just 20 career starts. At first glance you’d probably dismiss this Montjeu colt based on slow speed figures. But note that those last three races resulted in easy wins, and two were at the two mile distance at which speed figures are much slower than those going shorter. This one hasn’t run in races for which he was well-suited to pop a big figure in a long time, going back to last spring. In April 2010 he won the G1 Sydney Derby at this distance and followed it up with a second place finish in a G2 at 1 1/2m in June… he’s yet to beat graded older horses, but you can’t ignore this horse on his back class, and he’s back to his best distance.
#5 Fairway to Heaven 3/1 is on an impressive four-race win skein capped off by a victory in his graded stakes debut last time out. He beat just three rivals that day, but popped an SP 115 at 11 panels. His two tries at this distance have been easy wins (SPs: 108, 106). No surprise that this son of A.P. Indy has improved with age. Will be forwardly placed early and could steal away here… a win in a G1 would be a next logical step for this improving colt.
#6 Blanc de Noirs 7/1 (Rahy) tends to find his way far back in the pack early, even at these long distances, and will need some racing luck to pick ‘em up in the lane. A winner of $1.7M from 33 lifetime starts, this seven year-old has struggled of late but was a hot shooter last fall, when he hit the board in the G1 Coffeefields Cup and G1 Coalminer Cup, both at this distance. His last four grass starts have been dull, and he does prefer minor awards.
#7 Leo Emperor 7/1 is a horse with a consistent theme to his past performances – his last ten races have been a 1 1/2m on the turf. Four year-old Holy Roman Emperor colt hit his high last winter, when he won the G3 Waka Waka Cup in New Zealand against sophomores (SP 102), and then ran an SP 108 in running second in listed company… this is another four year-old who hasn’t yet beaten older though, and his last two stakes efforts were very dull.
I’ll tab Signs of Change for the top spot. Fairway to Heaven fits here and has early speed that could be the deciding factor. Burnt Lawn is great value at this price; could turn in any kind of effort. Bogoesaway for fourth.