South African supremacy up for grabs in the Derby
South African supremacy up for grabs in the Derby
Everyone has derby fever! The real derby fever is in Kentucky for the build up to the Bluegrass Derby, however South Africa also has reason to celebrate with the Grade II South African Derby being run this Saturday. The forecast is good and it looks like a firm turf surface for the 3yo’s which should help them get over the long journey of 12 furlongs that not one horse in this field has run over. Last year’s winner Starswept had to post a 100 speed figure to get over the line, so if we’re looking for the winner, we need to look for the horse that’s improving with every run and looking for the extra trip. Graded form isn’t as important as usual for this race, because the determining factor is who will and who won’t get the trip. Here’s the preview:
#1 – Henrytheransomnator – 7/1
Rank: 119
Coming out of the Daniel stables is a striking son of Henrythenavigator with J Smith aboard. Henrytheransomnator hasn’t stepped beyond Allowance class in his 3yo season but his last two runs at 11 furlongs have caught my eye. Two starts back he crushed an Allowance field, while last start he led by 8 but was run by Torquato who is in this race, and posted a 94 speed figure. Expect this guy to lead and try to run the opposition off their feet. I think he has the ability but his running style has me worried about the trip. He’s faded in his last two starts at 11 furlongs, and I see his best chance comes if he sets a fast pace throughout and tests their vulnerability at the distance. Also out of the same barn as King Tachyon, so if he rubs off on Henry then the rest should watch out. Definite place chance and could challenge.
#2 – Kepler Teychas – 3/1
Rank: 169
I can’t see how this son of Mineshaft is 3/1. He is the third last ranked horse in the field, he has struggled in stakes and graded stakes and his fading at the end of his races over shorter trips. Three starts back I would have had my money of him, as he won an Allowance over 9.5F with a 101 speed figure. Since then he’s finished 14th in a stakes and 5th in a Grade II. Furthermore, his pedigree doesn’t really scream turf route to me. Can’t see him being competitive here
#3 – Wall Of Gloom – 7/2
Rank: 164
Wall Of Gloom comes into this race with plenty of positives. He is in pretty good form, he has a top jock aboard in F Waldron and he is by marvellous turf route producing sire Montjeu. The bookies have installed him at 7/2 second favourite and he should be favourite. He was quite an average looking horse, but two starts back he burst onto the scene with a dominant Allowance victory. Last time out he got run down in a Stakes at 9.5f but did post a 101 speed figure. That’s the equal highest speed figure by any runner in the race. He has the ability, but the only negative I can find is a big one, as he got run down last start at 9.5F. It is hard to say if it was too far or if he ran into a mile and a quarter specialist. I’m willing to ignore that an install him as my top pick for the 2011 South African Derby.
#4 – Protaras – 5/1
Rank: 39
The highest ranked runner in the race is the son of Street Sense. Surprisingly, Protaras has a dirt pedigree with Danzig x Unbridled as his back end. However that hasn’t stopped him showing his ability in turf routes where he began with an Allowance win over 10 furlongs. Trainer Johnny stepped him up in distance to 11 furlongs where he was even more impressive in an Allowance victory, as he stalked the leader and blitzed him in the stretch to win by 3 ½ lengths. You can argue that some of the other runners are looking for further or shorter, but there is no doubting that Protaras is screaming out for the 12 furlongs of this race. I wouldn’t say he is the best horse in this race, but he is the one that is going to appreciate 12 furlongs the most. For this reason I rate him highly and he is the main danger to Wall Of Gloom.
#5 – Star’s N’ Sparks – 5/1
Rank: 50
Two words come to mind when you first look at this horse. Blueblood and Consistency. By Sea The Stars out of a Sadler’s Wells mare this boy was destined for a big race over 12 furlongs on turf. Further, his record of 7 starts 4 wins and 3 seconds is quite stunning. Switching to his form, his speed figures are quite low in comparison, but that is not the most important factor. His allowance win by 3 ¾ lengths was quite impressive, but he was beaten soundly in his last start over 11 furlongs in a Stakes beaten by the horse inside him Protaras. It is hard to pick him based on this but I wouldn’t completely rule him out.
#6 – Delta Maestro – 5/1
Rank: 478
Cwhisper’s entry Delta Maestro is the most interesting runner in the race. His first 7 starts were average and he was barely considered an Allowance runner. However that all changed when he finally broke through for his second win last start. He didn’t just have a break through win in Allowance company but he improved out of sight to win by 1 ½ lengths with a 97 speed figure. Unless that was a fluke, Delta Maestro does have some ability but his longest run was at 8.5 furlongs and this is at 12 furlongs. His sire did win the Melbourne Cup but I can’t even consider him because he has never run further than 8.5 furlongs.
#7 – Galiseas – 14/1
Rank: 3072
The longshot of the field is Galiseas trained by the goldsmith stable. His pedigree is impressive as he is Sea The Star’s second runner in the field and is out of a Galileo mare. He is bred to get the distance and he looks like he wants further. After breaking his maiden he struggled at 8.5 furlongs. Last start he stepped up to 10 furlongs and did improve but was beaten over 5 lengths in an Allowance. He was starting to finish off the race but his ability and lack of race experience is a query. This is his 5th start and his career high speed figure is 85. Expect an improvement, but no enough to collect any dough.
#8 – Torquato – 6/1
Rank: 148
Torquato is a 3yo colt by Tiger Hill and comes into the race off an impressive allowance victory last time out. He has really hit his straps his last two starts putting together two victories in Allowance company. It was his last run that caught the eye over 11 furlongs where he settled at the back and stormed home from the clouds to grab fellow competitor Henrytheransomnator by ¾ with a 95 speed figure. That last run was a great derby trial, and the way he has been finishing off his races over 9 and 11 furlongs he will really appreciate the step up to 12 furlongs. If you are looking for a thrill runner, watch this guy as he settles as far back as 12 lengths off the lead and storms home. Another danger to the favourite.
The 2011 South African Derby looks like a classic with a small field of eight there are four stand out runners that have bright futures and should fight out the finish. Wall Of Gloom is the the class runner of the field, while Protaras and Torquato are huge challengers to the favourite. Henrytheransomator is a potentially good horse but I don’t think he will run a strong 12 furlongs.
Selections:
Wall Of Gloom
Protaras
Torquato